DL ends GUM Jan 2018
#31
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Tokyo
Programs: DL Diamond, ANA Platinum
Posts: 1,532
I agree. Those two routes may have gotten a reprieve (for now) because Delta doesn't have any direct competition (for now). But at some point, I could imagine Delta finding something more profitable to do with those 757s than to have them over in Japan being relatively lightly utilized going back and forth to beach destinations. Long-term, I think the same will happen with much if not all of Delta's Japan-Hawaii flying, too.
But yeah, as a resident of Japan it's just sad to see how rapidly DL is pulling out. Long term, it may even be a mistake. Every major route DL has pulled out of without a major LCC presence (BKK, LAX, JFK) has been picked up by either JL or NH. NH is starting a 3rd daily TYO-LAX, JL increased capacity to JFK and NH increased NRT-BKK as well.
#32
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 69
I think the only event that would preserve a sizable DL presence in Japan is the increase of HND slots. It's not likely they will ever get enough slots to replicate what they have even at this very moment, but if DL can secure just three more daytime slots - for SEA, DTW and ATL or JFK, then HND will become a LHR-style point-to-point destination while ICN and PVG take care of the rest. If overnight slots become available, maybe DL pushes for a HND-HNL service too.
But yeah, as a resident of Japan it's just sad to see how rapidly DL is pulling out. Long term, it may even be a mistake. Every major route DL has pulled out of without a major LCC presence (BKK, LAX, JFK) has been picked up by either JL or NH. NH is starting a 3rd daily TYO-LAX, JL increased capacity to JFK and NH increased NRT-BKK as well.
#33
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Tokyo
Programs: DL Diamond, ANA Platinum
Posts: 1,532
The challenge, though, is that of course Delta is almost certainly not going to get anywhere near that level of access to HND - anytime soon, likely ever. That would first of all require the Japanese government to open up the airport to U.S. carriers far more broadly than it has yet been willing to do, and then it would (likely) require the U.S. government explicitly favoring Delta over multiple other U.S. competitors to a level the U.S. government has yet been willing to do. At this point, TYO is destined to become a "LHR-style point-to-point destination" for Delta no matter what - and in that regard, it's suboptimal but hardly deadly for Delta to run split ops across NRT and HND.
If that's the case, then there would be 5 slots up for grabs again on the US end. In such a situation, DL would get no fewer than 3 slots by virtue of UA and AA's JVs. That would allow it to move SEA, DTW and ATL over, or perhaps restart JFK. The Japan head manager for DL has gone on record with the Japanese media stating that HND-JFK is a desired route in the future; I'm uncertain about the future of ATL-TYO given that ICN is now double daily and PVG is starting soon. If one of them's an evening slot, then nix ATL/JFK in favor of HNL.
Right, but again, that was going to happen, anyway. There was no route from Japan where Delta was ever going to be the natural, dominant competitor up against multiple local Japanese (if not also other Asian) carriers. The only reason Delta even sustained much of the beyond-NRT flying for as long as it did was that it did not, until recently, have a very good alternative. Now it does. DTW+SEA+ICN provides Delta with the opportunity to access virtually all of the same traffic flows Northwest used to handle - plus many more - and do so far more efficiently.
Last edited by FireEmblemPride; Sep 18, 2017 at 6:38 am
#35
Suspended
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: DCA
Programs: UA US CO AA DL FL
Posts: 50,262
Most of this thread ignores the JV with KE. This means that there is effective revenue-sharing and zero reason to serve a dwindling market.
Anybody who thinks that DL ought to serve a route now because NW did in the past, ought to call NW customer service. The phone just rings and rings and rings.
Indeed DL has a loyal base in GUM, but it only has a population of approx. 160,000. That is the size of a small-to-midsize market with no cachement area around. The route needs Japanese tourism to survive and that is dying off.
Anybody who thinks that DL ought to serve a route now because NW did in the past, ought to call NW customer service. The phone just rings and rings and rings.
Indeed DL has a loyal base in GUM, but it only has a population of approx. 160,000. That is the size of a small-to-midsize market with no cachement area around. The route needs Japanese tourism to survive and that is dying off.
#36
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Brooklyn, NYC
Programs: DL DM
Posts: 785
https://www.tourism.jp/en/tourism-da...nbound/#annual
#37
Join Date: May 2015
Location: DCA
Programs: AA EXP, DL FO, Marriott Titanium
Posts: 6,712
I don't get why this is such a big deal. NRT is done. KE serves GUM, so DL will naturally route US-GUM pax via ICN. This was pretty much expected IMO.
I think it would be worth doing some marketing in Guam on DL's part. Emphasize that KE will allow pax to connect to DL's network.
I think it would be worth doing some marketing in Guam on DL's part. Emphasize that KE will allow pax to connect to DL's network.
#38
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 69
Delta obviously does still serve the LAX-TYO market, but I agree on NYC-TYO - I, too, find it somewhat remarkable that Delta has exited that route completely.
#39
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Brooklyn, NYC
Programs: DL DM
Posts: 785
This is what's making me move away from Delta. I am, of course, a tiny sample size, but as most of my travel is from NYC to LAX, SFO, and TYO, Delta really sucks for me these days. No upgrades and no directs - even with partners - to TYO.
#40
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Tokyo
Programs: DL Diamond, ANA Platinum
Posts: 1,532
Personally, I am skeptical of the DOT awarding nearly half of the (hypothetical) HND frequencies available to U.S. carriers to a single airline when there are at least three others just as interested in their use. We have seen in the HND and ATI filings to date that Delta's arguments about needing special treatment because of its disadvantage relative to AA/JAL and United/ANA only go so far.
Hawaiian getting a third slot is seriously unlikely unless no one wants a potential evening slot.
#41
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: NRT/HND (Tokyo)
Programs: Skymiles (DM, 1MM, SC Lifetime) HHonors (G)
Posts: 150
Another NRT downsizing
DL would not admit it, but this is yet another downsizing of DL NRT operation. Oh yeah, they also closed one of the two DL Sky Lounges at NRT in May. Sad.
#42
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: on the path to perdition
Programs: Delta, United
Posts: 4,782
Found these online. One quotes Delta, the other is more speculation
https://www.saipantribune.com/index....-pulling-guam/
https://www.saipantribune.com/index....-pulling-guam/
#43
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 69
There is no other way it can possibly play out, unless AA or UA decide to serve HND from ATL, DTW or SEA or that the DOT decides that redundant service from OW or *A is more appropriate than DL serving its hubs. The last *A hubs without HND service are IAH, DEN, IAD and EWR. For OW, the major ones are ORD and DFW. That's only 6 slots right there, assuming NH doesn't want to serve SFO itself or JL with LAX.
Hawaiian getting a third slot is seriously unlikely unless no one wants a potential evening slot.
Hawaiian getting a third slot is seriously unlikely unless no one wants a potential evening slot.
#45
Suspended
Join Date: Jun 2005
Programs: Delta Diamond, Marriott Ambassador & Lifetime Titanium, Hertz President's Circle, United Silver
Posts: 6,334
I agree. Those two routes may have gotten a reprieve (for now) because Delta doesn't have any direct competition (for now). But at some point, I could imagine Delta finding something more profitable to do with those 757s than to have them over in Japan being relatively lightly utilized going back and forth to beach destinations. Long-term, I think the same will happen with much if not all of Delta's Japan-Hawaii flying, too.