LarkSFO

Your guess: The date that is is announced that DL and AS will no longer partner.

The partnership itself may take a few months longer to wind down.

My guess: May 1, 2014


http://www.delta.com/content/www/en_...-airlines.html

http://www.alaskaair.com/content/mil...ers/delta.aspx

jrkmsp

Years from now. It's a long-range deal with expensive outs for either party. I'll say May 1, 2020, but it will be so long from now none of us will even remember the dates we picked.

Don't get me wrong, I don't think all is swell. But if you look at Delta's response to Alaska's adds in SLC (San Jose year-round and JNU seasonal), both sides are being fairly measured. When F9 dared to launch an MCI-MSP flight two years ago, DL announced MCI-BOS, MCI-MSY, MCI-CMH then MCI-AUS — all routes that had been F9 monopolies. When F9 pulled out, most of those routes immediately went away. BOS held on for a little longer. If Delta wanted to screw with AS, they would have launched SEA-BOS, SEA-STL, SEA-MCI, etc. And vice versa, if AS really wanted to screw with Delta, they wouldn't have launched routes to SLC from existing focus cities. Measured responses to measured provocations.

Both sides know they're in bed together for the longhaul and are engaging in tit-for-tat adds. The partnership isn't going anywhere soon.

dtwtransport

If when the two non-stop flights between DCA and MEM end DL launches DCA-SEA and/or DCA-LAX that to me would signal they are out for AS blood.

DL would have to get distance exceptions for any LAX and SEA flights but that could come as part of the AA/US merger changes at DCA.

LarkSFO

Name a date.

(Or, tell me I am crazy for even thinking this may come to pass.)

andymo99

There is no easy way for DL to gain permission to serve LAX or SEA out of DCA. If there was, every airline would be all over it.

andymo99

I so wish you were right. But I think you misunderstand the meaning of DL attacking Alaska's bread-and-butter routes from SEA such as SFO, LAX, LAS, SAN, YVR, FAI, and PDX. Any single one of these routes would have been a punch in the gut to AS. ALL of them is a declaration of war.

doglover

Alaska serves to many more airports in the NW than the hub routes both are competing on. AS is a major feeder to Delta's long haul international flights to NRT,AMS, and CDG from PDX,SEA, and SFO. I've even used into AS to connect international on DL out of LAX.

DL acquiring AS is more likely IMO than ending the partnership.

readywhenyouare

100% agree. Some of the flights don't even connect to Delta's international flights so please don't feed me that old excuse.

LarkSFO

Please, for the sake of the viewing audience at home, name a date!

"Never" is an acceptable answer as well...

Thanks for playing along.

Fanjet

Maybe we should wait for the majority of these new routes to materialize berfore picking a date. Especially on the DL side. They have a very predictable habit of throwing a lot of crap at the wall and waiting to see what sticks when it comes to new routes from "new hubs". Anyone remember the LAX-PHL and LAX-IAD flights as part of that last attempt (or second to the last attempt) to re-build the LAX hub?

MSPeconomist

Connecting between AS and DL is easier at LAX than, for instance, SEA because T5 and T6 at PAX are close to each other and connected by the airside tunnel. At SEA, it's a long and complicated walk involving the train, etc.

LarkSFO

This is the most comprehensive overview I have seen:

"Delta Air makes still more aggressive moves in Seattle as Alaska Airlines pledges to defend itself"

http://centreforaviation.com/analysi...-itself-137648

"Just how the current competitive build-up by Delta in Alaska’s markets will affect their long-term relationship is uncertain. But in the meantime Alaska continues to post financial results that are among the best in the US industry, which means that it has a strong foundation from which to defend itself."

"With Delta’s planned launch of new service from Seattle to Portland and San Diego in Sep-2014 and Jun-2014, respectively, Delta caps off a raft of domestic expansion from Seattle while also building the airport as a key trans-Pacific gateway.

Once those new routes launch, Delta will compete with Alaska on six of Alaska’s top 10 domestic routes – Seattle to Anchorage (on a seasonal basis, but with more frequencies planned for 2014), Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Portland, San Francisco and San Diego."

"However, Mr Tilden noted that Delta and Alaska would not be codesharing on the new flights Delta is introducing into Alaska’s north-south markets on the US west coast. So it appears Alaska will feed Delta’s international flights from other markets where there is a codeshare in place and compete head-to-head with its partner in other markets. "

"Queried directly about seemingly subsidising a competitor by codesharing on certain flights and why Alaska is not making it more painful for Delta, Mr Tilden explained there are all types of actions Alaska could take, but that it was not in the company’s interest to talk about its strategy during a public discussion with analysts."

"Without a doubt, the declaration that "alliances are complicated" will be flagrantly obvious in Seattle in 2014."

Many other interesting details as well...

Another good one:

"Delta Air Lines' latest punch at Alaska in Seattle is an effort to siphon traffic from Vancouver"

http://centreforaviation.com/analysi...ncouver-142676

"...by launching service from Vancouver to feed its international operations in Seattle. The new service not only continues to heighten tension with Alaska, but also adds a new layer of competitive dynamics to carriers offering service to Asia from Vancouver, which is just 204km north of Seattle."

DiverDave

Even connecting from AS to AS at SEA can require a train ride since AS is now running a lot of flights out of one of the satellite terminals.

If you ride the trains, there should never be a really long walk at SEA unless you are at the very end of the A concourse.

Two years ago, I was traveling to FAI on a monthly basis and it was always a 3 train connection. At least in ATL, your train rides are non-stop.

David

tkey75

Are you looking to get a pool going? Everyone buys the winner lunch.

You start.

DiverDave

What's the extra overhead for a Canadian traveler to transit the U.S. en route to Asia?

edit: here's a graphic that shows AS's revenue and breaks out the codeshares with AA and DL.



David