DrCordell

Flying SFO-DTW this Friday on the first leg of a trip to YUL. My upgrade for the DTW-YUL leg cleared two days ago, but nothing on SFO-DTW.

Looking at the seatmap, the same 7 seats are open in F that have been available since I booked several weeks ago. I figured that upgrades would have started processing for this flight 5 days in advance as detailed here: http://thepointsguy.com/2015/03/delt...-your-chances/

Does the fact that nobody seems to have cleared mean there is no RU/OU availability? I'm still relatively new at all this, can anyone shed some light on this for me?

Ledfish

First of all, the seat map may only indicate that a given seat is open, not that 7 F seats are unsold. So there may be paid F passengers that have just not selected a seat yet. Hard to believe, but it is actually pretty common.

Second, it maybe that upgrades have not cleared in advance yet, and may not until the at the gate, because Delta hopes to sell some or even all the open seats before the flight departs.

Howste

DL is hoping that some people will buy last-minute tickets in FC or spring for upgrade offers. How full is coach? If it's almost full then there's a very good chance that they'll get FC purchases. Sometimes the difference between coach and FC for a late purchase can be under $80. A few times I've seen FC cheaper than coach.

DrCordell

Coach is looking fairly full, with only a smattering of middle seats left. I'm fine without the upgrade to F, just hoping that at least one medallion in C+ clears who had an aisle seat. Currently booked in 19C because by the time my GM upgrade window opened, only middles were left.

javabytes

That's exactly what this means. Just because there are empty seats up front doesn't necessarily mean that Delta will release them for upgrades. They will often hold back at least some seats for sale right up until the gate. Especially on longer routes like SFO-DTW, and especially on peak travel times like Sunday afternoon through Monday, and Thursday afternoon through Friday.

3Cforme

You don't know how many Diamonds and Plats have already cleared into F.

You don't know how many Diamonds and Plats remain ahead of you on the upgrade list.

You don't know how many Golds in higher fare buckets are ahead of you.

You don't know how many Golds in the same fare bucket bought their ticket before you (or have an Amex Reserve card), and so are ahead of you.

You're worrying way too hard on too little info. Norms may not hold on a holiday weekend, anyway. IMHO, you have some chance to clear into F at the gate.

DrCordell

Yup, that sounds about right!

sethb

If OP is right about the flight remaining F7 for several weeks, then clearly no Diamonds or Plats have cleared. (And whenever I clear, I get a seat assigned, more evidence that there were no clears.)

Quinlanty

FWIW, I flew from SFO-DTW a lot this summer and DL wouldn't clear upgrades at the window with even 15 seats available. As a PM, I missed most SFO-DTW on awards, and only upgraded at the gate when flying on cheap paid tickets.

ND76

I've flown on a number of long-distance domestic flights this year. I've only gotten one upgrade at the 5 day DM window (DCA-SLC, on a Wednesday evening).

I've noticed sort of a pattern where they will release some upgrade seats 3+ days out, to bring the total number of F seats remaining to 8, and then they will release some more 24-36 hours from departure to leave four F empties remaining.

They don't always do this; I flew SEA-DTW midday on Monday 8/31, and the 10 F empties (out of 30) weren't filled until less than 45 minutes before departure. Earlier this year, a DTW-LAS segment I was on had 11 F empties at 60 minutes before departure; then upgrades were cleared, then the crack DTW GA staff rudely kicked the last one of the upgradees (sitting next to me, the second to the last upgradee) back into Y, claiming that they had just sold his seat to someone else. Then, when there was a no show in F, the GA went back and re-invited the humiliated medallion member back into F.

I've gotten a decent number of upgrades this year where I was one of the last people to get upgraded (I usually fly on L, U, T, V or X fares). So, on quite a few of the flights I've been on, maybe only one or two pax below DM got upgraded. I was on one flight, a Monday morning DCA-MSP sector a couple of months ago, where a DM with almost 5 MM (related to my family by marriage) only got an upgrade at the last moment when there was a no show up front (I was #4 on the list on the same flight).

So, I hope you get upgraded, but it is definitely not a sure thing. I'm not looking forward to next year when I won't be DM any more.

jrl767

I'm presuming this is a serious typo ... I can't think of any DL jet that has 30 F seats, and certainly none that would be operating into DCA; in fact, I think most mid-day DCA-DTW service is 16F MadDogs or 12F Airbii/CR9s

MSPeconomist

......and you don't know how many elites of all tiers might have received instant upgrades into FC from Y class fares.

Not clearly as there could have been upgrades from (full) Y fares earlier. For all we know, this represents some of the occupied FC seats. There also could have been upgrades with RUCs/GUCs or using miles, but these upgrades would have used a different inventory class.

I wouldn't expect a GM to have much of a chance to upgrade on this route except possibly from a very high fare class such as M. However, the holiday weekend makes predictions harder.

Don't the horrid old domestic 767s have five rows of 2-2-2 in FC? I don't know whether they're able to use DCA, but remember that DL up gauged many of the DCA routes when they swapped the slots for NYC so that basically capacity wasn't lost even with significantly fewer slots.

flyerCO

If you read what you quoted it's not DCA it's SEA to DTW. The horrid domestic 767 has 30F and fools people when booking into thinking they're getting J. I can't tell you how many people I've heard complain upon boarding and realizing it's a domestic 767.

xliioper

I don't really have much sympathy for people who simply assume it's a J seat simply because it's 767 or a wide-body. The 6 across seat config should be a pretty big clue that you are not getting an international J seat.