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Old Nov 29, 2009, 12:00 pm
  #1  
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The Legacy of Larry Kellner

In slightly over one month from today, Larry Kellner will step down as CEO and Chairman of the Board of Continental.

When the announcement was made in July it was something of a shocker, as no one expected Kellner to leave. Certainly, there were none of the behind-the-scenes machinations of the kind that forced Bethune to step down as CEO.

When Kellner took over from Bethune in 2004 he inherited what can only be called the darling of the airline industry, a phoenix risen from the ashes of the Frank Lorenzo nightmare.

Continental was consistently scoring best of category in numerous consumer surveys and the choice of Larry Kellner seemed an outstanding one as he was a principal architect of Continental's revival under Bethune.

Five years later, though, what is Kellner's legacy and which airline does he leave behind to his successor Jeff Smisek?

THE GOOD


First, over Kellner's entire tenure, Continental continued to exceed average industry performance. But that, of course, isn't saying much.

To his credit, he successfully oversaw the antitrust immunity which allowed a close marketing alliance with UAL and the shift toward Star Alliance.

He also listened to his most valuable customers and agreed to modernize the BusinessFirst cabins with a lie-flat seat, although it could be argued he was largely playing a game of catch up here.

THE BAD


While the past five years have clearly not been good ones for the airline industry, as it lurched from crisis to crisis, first debilitating fuel costs, then the deepest recession since the thirties, Larry Kellner did not adhere to the Bethunian principles of Continental's "exceptionalism."

As the carrier needed to find ways to earn a profit, his playbook proved painfully thin, and instead of adding revenue through adding value, as Bethune had done, Kellner simply resorted to garden-variety cheap shot tricks to cut costs and enhance revenue, such as charging for checked bags, IFE, reducing the quality of catering, and so forth.

How ironic is it to view Continental's TV advertising now (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QjaFR...om=PL&index=16) in which the carrier adopted a superior, almost snarky, tone in declaring its exceptionalism to the falling standards of airline travel?

Now, as Kellner departs the company, Continental has been stripped of virtually all of its exceptionalism. Not only has it ironically done away with pillows and, for the most part, blankets, but the airline now charges most of its customers to check bags, to standby on most flights, and to watch its in-flight entertainment on domestic flights, while magazines have been removed.

Yes, it still serves meals at no additional charge in its economy section on some domestic flights, but this, last feature of Continental's exceptionalism is hinted to be on the chopping block as well.

On another, although slightly more oblique level, Continental also slowly but relentlessly diminished the benefits accruing to its frequent flyer elites, the details of which you are all well versed in.

So what is left? When Bethune retired, he could proudly proclaim that "that a good airline is defined by customer satisfaction, not just cost per available seat mile," which, of course, echoed the philosophy of Continental's principal founder, Bob Six.

As Kellner departs, he can make no such claim. Can anyone out there honestly say they are as satisifed with Continental today as when Kellner took over as CEO?

And, interestingly, as Kellner slowly transformed Continental into virtually just another legacy airline its financial performance began to mirror the mediocre performance of other legacy carriers as well.

In 2008 CAL lost $585 million and so far in 2009 its losses are just about on par with the losses at UAL, adjusted for the larger size of UAL. This despite record load factors (85%), and a continuous reduction in capacity and service.

Of course, much of this can be attributed to the general malaise of the airline industry. You know that when WN is losing money, things are not going well. And Continental was at a disadvantage since most of its rivals entered into bankruptcy in recent years, while CO's two bankruptcies occurred in the nineties and thus its cost savings are no longer as evident.

Nevertheless, there was a lot to be said for Continental's exceptionalism, an approach to the business that had monetizable value, not just a word to make some CO plats feel good about receiving an upgrade.

IN CONCLUSION

Kellner eviscerated the exceptionalism through his lack of vision and guts. After all, the previous management faced the same criticism and scorn when they adopted policies that appeared counter-intuitive and certain to ruin the airline (You're going to have an international first class section but only charge business class fares? Are you crazy?).

Continental has the best people in the airline industry and some terrific positives (many of which are thanks to Larry Kellner). Now Jeff Smisek needs to reconnect with Continental's long tradition of exceptionalism (which goes back to the Bob Six days) and add revenue by adding value, not by reducing it.

OK. That's my $.02 (or more like $.20 given the length of the post, sorry).

I'm curious to read other takes on Kellner's legacy.
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Old Nov 29, 2009, 12:29 pm
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Be Fair to Larry

No one would mistake me for one of Lar' Baby's obsequious sycophants, but I think you're wildly lionizing Bethune while giving Kellner a bad shake. Change nowadays is more rapid than ever. Both men (well, technically Kellner is a man-sized chipmunk) presided over significantly different eras, even if only a few years apart. Thus, you cannot compare the two. And even removing the personalities from your thesis, your exceptionalism drumbeat falls flat because CO was exceptional in that it merely followed the airline market's decline in benefits; it didn't lead it. And while you might be right about the meals at mealtime going away, the fact they're still here shows CO is still exceptional. Albeit, "exceptional" isn't want it used to be. Give the devil his due. Or, in this case, the Giant Chipmunk.

Lar' Baby, TSMRSRNE and I are rootin' for ya! ^
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Old Nov 29, 2009, 12:46 pm
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Originally Posted by RNE
No one would mistake me for one of Lar' Baby's obsequious sycophants, but I think you're wildly lionizing Bethune while giving Kellner a bad shake. Change nowadays is more rapid than ever. Both men (well, technically Kellner is a man-sized chipmunk) presided over significantly different eras, even if only a few years apart. Thus, you cannot compare the two. And even removing the personalities from your thesis, your exceptionalism drumbeat falls flat because CO was exceptional in that it merely followed the airline market's decline in benefits; it didn't lead it. And while you might be right about the meals at mealtime going away, the fact they're still here shows CO is still exceptional. Albeit, "exceptional" isn't want it used to be. Give the devil his due. Or, in this case, the Giant Chipmunk.

Lar' Baby, TSMRSRNE and I are rootin' for ya! ^
I tend to agree, difficult to compare both as they navigated very different times.

"Exceptional" took on a reversed meaning in that while products and services were exceptional under Bethune's era, it became exceptional to have an airline survive under Kellner's, and as pointed out, only by unbundling such products and services after it failed to distinguish CO from its peers who dumped them far earlier.
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Old Nov 29, 2009, 12:53 pm
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Originally Posted by JetSet78
I tend to agree, difficult to compare both as they navigated very different times.

"Exceptional" took on a reversed meaning in that while products and services were exceptional under Bethune's era, it became exceptional to have an airline survive under Kellner's, and as pointed out, only by unbundling such products and services after it failed to distinguish CO from its peers who dumped them far earlier.
The times were very different, no question. But the men and their approaches were very different, too.

Where I do not agree with you is on your last point. Kellner began unbundling Continental's exceptionalism as soon as he became CEO. The pace of the unbundling quickened and became more pronounced near the end of his tenure when CO continued to lose money and Kellner could think of nothing else to cut costs and raise revenue.

In the end, though, you have to ask yourself the question: Would CAL be better off today it still stood out markedly from the competition? As long as they could monetize its exceptionalism, I think the answer is yes.

Remember, Bethune faced many of the same critics, but he stood them down. Kellner just went along, and while CO may be earning $300 million a year from checked bag fees, it has lost a much more substantial portion of its long-term value.

Last edited by TWA Fan 1; Nov 29, 2009 at 1:11 pm
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Old Nov 29, 2009, 1:23 pm
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Any objective analysis of the Kellner years is incomplete without due recognition of the fact that Kellner was forced to deal with the sizeable financial burdens placed on Continental by his predecessor's decisions. Regardless of whether Bethune's actions constituted the best or necessary restructuring course for the airline, the cold truth is that the Bethune years resulted in a Continental that was up to its eyeballs in debt, wanting for cash, and limited in many growth possibilities beyond those opportunities explored during the Kellner years.
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Old Nov 29, 2009, 1:54 pm
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Originally Posted by HeathrowGuy
Any objective analysis of the Kellner years is incomplete without due recognition of the fact that Kellner was forced to deal with the sizeable financial burdens placed on Continental by his predecessor's decisions. Regardless of whether Bethune's actions constituted the best or necessary restructuring course for the airline, the cold truth is that the Bethune years resulted in a Continental that was up to its eyeballs in debt, wanting for cash, and limited in many growth possibilities beyond those opportunities explored during the Kellner years.
When Gordon Bethune took over as CEO of CAL in 1994, the company had a 50-1 debt-equity and negative liquidity. By 2000 CAL had a 5-1 debt equity and cash reserves of $1 billion.

At the end of Bethune's tenure, CAL had approximately $5 billion in debt and $1 billion in cash.
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Old Nov 29, 2009, 2:10 pm
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TWA Fan legecy

I think we should look at TWA Fan's legecy if we are looking at things. Especially in regards to the CO forumn.

Three years ago... Hated CO yet posts in our forum. No one knew why.

Two Years ago... still hating CO. Not sure why he doesn't go fly someone else if he is so unhappy. Keeps posting in the CO forum.

One year ago... same old same old.

Now, yet another negative CO thread. Totally lopsided "analysis". I think one fact says it all... Show me ONE other Airline CEO that held annual events and took unscreen question from their customers. Bueller? Bueller?...
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Old Nov 29, 2009, 2:16 pm
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Originally Posted by cigarman
I think we should look at TWA Fan's legecy if we are looking at things. Especially in regards to the CO forumn.

Three years ago... Hated CO yet posts in our forum. No one knew why.

Two Years ago... still hating CO. Not sure why he doesn't go fly someone else if he is so unhappy. Keeps posting in the CO forum.

One year ago... same old same old.

Now, yet another negative CO thread. Totally lopsided "analysis". I think one fact says it all... Show me ONE other Airline CEO that held annual events and took unscreen question from their customers. Bueller? Bueller?...
I don't know why you write that I "hate" CO.

It's quite the opposite and has always been so.

That's why I continue to fly CO and post on this fourm.

Yes, I don't like what Kellner did to CO, but I don't like it because I care deeply about CO.

That's why I sincerely hope that Smisek makes a concerted move to reestablish CO's unique exceptionalism, which ultimately derives from its wonderful people.
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Old Nov 29, 2009, 2:33 pm
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Show me ONE other Airline CEO that held annual events and took unscreen question from their customers. Bueller? Bueller?...
I'm glad they did that. I'm glad a few of us got to enjoy being flyer geeks and getting to talk to the CEO and other important folks in the company.

He was wrong to yank out so many F seats, wrong on BF co-pays, wrong on SDC fees, wrong on not having SBY priority by status, wrong on 50% EQM, no E+.... Many of these issues were fixed/mitigated but not without a TON of pushback from us. Appending "On behalf of my more than 40,000 coworkers" in front of every press release doesn't help employees be customer focused. WE-CARE is a joke, you pay a BF fare and get stuck with a INOP seat and have to fight to get 10k onepass miles?! Some CO employees (Scott) *DO* care about us customers and can straighten things out. But Scott shouldn't have to clean up every mess that we have, but its clear that nobody else in the CS hierarchy is up to the task.
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Old Nov 29, 2009, 2:36 pm
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Being based out of EWR, it has been nice benefiting from CO's second largest hub. I have really enjoyed seeing the build up of the European routes over the last 10+ years, some can be attributed to both men's regimes. Keep in mind that under Kellner's tenure we now have seen an great expansion of EWR-Asia markets (if my mental time line serves me right).

However, I have been concerned about the direction CO has been lead in over the past few years. Some of what I have found disheartening lately is now allowing the ultilization of the Q400's. (The ERJ's are far superior, IMHO.) But now we're seeing the Q400's on some of CO's premier short haul routes (EWR-BUF/Wash DC/ etc...). The other thing that has made me concerned for the better part of the decade is that CO has shunken to a primarily IAH and east airline. We've seen hubs (to one level or another) at LAX and DIA (now DEN) disappear in the 90's with nothiing coming into replace them since. And, there seems to have no attempts at it either. However, to Kellner's benefit, he has created a fantastically close alliance with UA. This now solves the problem of wanting to do an intra-West Coast intinerary for a pax who is wants to stick to a CO friendly enviroment. I know this requires flying on UA equiptment with their staff but to me, it's satisfactory.

Here's hoping that we can see better days for CO and the airline industry as a whole in the near future.

BTW, I know we all maybe getting used to Jeff Smisek coming in rather soon and are eagerly await to see what he will take this ship. Just out of curiosity, I would love to know how he will be dealing with DL now that they have both quickly swallowed up NW and are in CO's former but now competing alliance.
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Old Nov 29, 2009, 3:46 pm
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TWA Fan 1, I applaud you for starting this thread and for expressing your views, but your tone is somewhat combative in the OP and I don't think that it is fair to Larry.

CAL is very different than it was when LK took over for Gordon Bethune, but then again, so is the entire airline industry. Singling out CAL for dropping those things that made it "exceptional" without the larger context of the industry is unfair. Do I wish that some of the old things were back? Sure...I would like pillows, I don't want to see meals go, I wish that my mother (non-elite) didn't have to spend $50 to check two bags to NYC...but you can't get those things very differently on any other domestic legacy carrier, now can we?

Also, you neglected to point out the tremendous international expansions that LK has undertaken. Look at the European and Asian route maps during GB's tenure and compare them to the network today. It would have been easier to just string CAL along on a mostly-domestic network, a-la USAirways, but he didn't and aggressively perused routes to PEK, PVG, DEL, BOM, MUC, and the IAH-FRA route -- just to name a few. These have benefitted the airline tremendously, what with domestic revenue at a standstill right now.

There are many other things that he has done -- good and bad -- so please remember all of these when talking about LK's legacy. I think he has done an admirable job, and CAL is doing very well vis-à-vis the other domestic legacy carriers. I wish Mr. Kellner the best, and thanks for the MUC parting gift! ^

Last edited by theblakefish; Nov 29, 2009 at 3:58 pm
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Old Nov 29, 2009, 3:46 pm
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Originally Posted by cigarman
I think one fact says it all... Show me ONE other Airline CEO that held annual events and took unscreen question from their customers. Bueller? Bueller?...

And that defines his tenure?

While I certainly appreciate his openness, and the couple of DO's I went to were a both informative and lot of fun, a couple of customer entertainment events doesn't make a CEO.

If you want to look for one thing that characterizes him, it's the fact that you had to bet him to hold the first DO in the first place. Remember he didn't even think some small number of people (50?) would come to such an event, when in reality many times that number were interested.

He was out of touch with his customer base then, and he was out of touch when he made the other decisions that TWA Fan and entropy mentioned.

It's good that he was able to retain many of CO's good qualities -- e.g., reliability, new fleet, and solid food service in the front cabin (cheese aside).
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Old Nov 29, 2009, 4:00 pm
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Originally Posted by theblakefish
TWA Fan 1, I applaud you for starting this thread and for expressing your views, but your tone is somewhat combative in the OP and I don't think that it is fair to Larry.

CAL is very different than it was when LK took over for Gordon Bethune, but then again, so is the entire airline industry. Singling out CAL for dropping those things that made it exceptional without the larger context of the industry is unfair and untrue. Do I wish that some of the old things were back? Sure...I would like pillows, I don't want to see meals go, I wish that my mother (non-elite) didn't have to spend $50 to check two bags to NYC...but you can't get those things very differently on any other domestic legacy carrier, now can we?

Also, you neglected to point out the tremendous international expansions that LK has undertaken. Look at the European and Asian route maps during GB's tenure and compare them to the network today. It would have been easier to just string CAL along on a mostly-domestic network, a-la USAirways, but he didn't and aggressively perused routes to PEK, PVG, DEL, BOM, MUC, and the IAH-FRA routes -- just to name a few. These have benefitted the airline tremendously, what with domestic revenue at a standstill right now.

There are many other things that he has done, so please remember these when talking about LK's legacy. I think he has done an admirable job, and CAL is doing very well vis-à-vis the other domestic legacy carriers. I wish Mr. Kellner the best, and thanks for the MUC parting gift! ^
blakefish: I agree wholeheartedly on the international expansion undertaken under Kellner's watch. I apologize for my oversight on this matter.

Secondly, as far as your poignant story that your mother's experience nowadays on CO is not very different from any other legacy carrier, not only do I agree with you, but that was--in fact-the crux of my post.

CO used to be different, it used to be exceptional. Its customers came to expect this from them, and its employees derived tremendous pride from this exceptionalism.

The fact is that this exceptionalism has been largely whittled away as a direct result of Kellner's policies.

Whatever meager savings or revenue hit were realized have come at the considerable cost of CAL losing its status as the airline that took care of its customers better than the others did.

And there is a real monetary value that can be applied to losing that status.

Also, please don't get me wrong: I have absolutely nothing against Larry Kellner. He's a very nice, extremely bright guy, who was a cracker-jack CFO at CO. I wish him all the best in his continuing ventures.
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Old Nov 29, 2009, 4:01 pm
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Say what you will about Larry, and I personally applaud him, but he LISTENED to his customers. How many other CEOs read their own email and then call the sender?

Yes, the DOs were great (We attended all four). If there is one thing I take from that, it is the people of CO. I did not meet one who did not like his/her job. They are happy people and would not be if Larry treated them poorly. Yse, the customer is first, but the employee dedication and loyalty is what makes CO a great airline.

I suspect that if we asked Larry what he most wanted to be rembered for, I suspect happy employees would be high, or at the top of, his list.

Sondra and I will miss him and wish him well.
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Old Nov 29, 2009, 4:48 pm
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TWA Fan,

I am not sure what kellner has done is much different than what Bethune would have done in the same climate, they are still good friends and no doubt Kellner takes Bethune's advice in many matters (in private). i am not saying Kellner is a Bethune in any way they had/have vastly different leadership styles, but in the end I am not sure the results would have been much different.

I do however think Bethune may have been able to get more concessions out of Boeing for the massive 787 delays that have plauged the program and messed up much of COs planning, or lack thereof. CO banked on the 787 program WAY too much without additional 777/767s in the fleet as a stopgap.
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