Good day to you all from a now quiet Beirut. Before the IDF decided to stop their aerial bombing, they engaged in about 30 minutes of mock raids over the city of Beirut about an hour after my last post last night. Granted, they didn't fire any missiles, but those low-flying jets and that unmistakable sound of an approaching fighter jet sends shivers down your spine.
The 48-hour hault, though very much appreciated (just like that humanitarian link in our own country) is nothing more than an opportunity for the IDF to regroup, rethink and re-engage. So while Monday and Tuesday might be "quiet", I'm afraid Tuesday night/Wednesday morning is going to be the start of something grand. Oh joy...
Someone stop the world; I need to get off...
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New York Times names BEIRUT as top destination to visit in 2009. See the article here.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cblaisd
Greetings to all.....
A friendly and, hopefully, helpful reminder and heads up:
If you have posted on this thread, but later find that your post is no longer there, it has been removed. It is likely that the question you raised or the observation you made was, in the judgment of the moderator(s) or the FlyerTalk staff, either a) political, b) a question/observation that could have better been sent via PM to Bey/Dov to avoid thread "clutter," or c) veering off-topic.
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The 48-hour hault, though very much appreciated (just like that humanitarian link in our own country) is nothing more than an opportunity for the IDF to regroup, rethink and re-engage. So while Monday and Tuesday might be "quiet", I'm afraid Tuesday night/Wednesday morning is going to be the start of something grand. Oh joy...
Agree...and disagree.
I don't think the IDF needs to regroup and rethink. This hiatus was made for political reasons (the US needs to be able to show the world that it has influence in Israel) and not military ones.
As far as Tuesday night (from midnight our time) is concerned, I am certain that you are right.
The only thing that could stop it is Hizbollah announcing that it is moving out of South Lebanon and disarming -- and I don't see that as being in the cards without quite a bit more fighting.
Last edited by Dovster; Jul 31, 06 at 4:07 am.
Reason: typo
The only thing that can stop this is if both sides agree to a cease fire. I don't see this happening anytime soon but I hope the events of the past 3 weeks (and the lack of progress on both sides) will prove otherwise.
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New York Times names BEIRUT as top destination to visit in 2009. See the article here.
The easiest thing in the world to do is to get one side to agree to a ceasefire. Getting both sides to agree is a different story altogether.
I know that within 2 minutes I could draw up ceasefire terms that Hizbollah would happily accept. I could do the same with ceasefire terms that Israel would be thrilled with.
But ceasefire terms acceptable to both sides? I am afraid that will only be possible when one side has achieved its objectives and the other side has been too badly damaged to be able to continue fighting. (Or, as happened in the Iraq-Iran war, when both sides have been damaged too badly.)
I don't claim that this is an optimistic outlook -- just a realistic one.
Naturally, I took advantage of the hiatus to try to further FlyerTalk's reputation as the "home to some of the closest personal relationships on the Internet."
To that end, I wrote the following Private Message:
I then sent copies of it to every woman who has posted on this thread.
......
Arrgh, Dovster - you got somethin' against grannies????
Where's myPN?
(Sobbing into my hankie ...)
Well, I hope the time frame of 10 - 14 days requested by P.M. Olmert is sufficient to achieve "Israel's objectives"... But somehow I feel that that time frame will pass too and he will simply put in a request for another 10 - 14 days.
Eventually, I think the U.S. is going to be forced to exert its pressure on Israel and will finally move it towards a permanent cease fire. Lebanon has clearly stated that no negotiations until an unconditional cease fire is reached. I think that was made very clear yesterday. Let's hope that cease fire happens soon... Just my point of view on the current situation...
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New York Times names BEIRUT as top destination to visit in 2009. See the article here.
Lebanon has clearly stated that no negotiations until an unconditional cease fire is reached.
Ideally, that's the way it should be done. It is how peace was reached with Egypt. Sadat and Begin both announced that the two countries would fight no more wars.
After that, they sat down to negotiate the details of peace -- and did so without a sword hanging over their heads.
The problem here is that even if Israel and Lebanon were to make the same announcement, there is a third party -- Hizbollah -- which could start up the shooting again whenever it wishes.
Location: Either at the shooting range or anywhere good beer can be found...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by missy64
well my feelings are hurt...I guess i didn't make enough impression to get that quite lovely PM from DOV...oh well just seeing your green light makes my heart happy with joy.
Ever seen the lovely mountains of alaska
My feelings are hurt too. Does a Pennsylvania (County) Republican Committeewoman not get any love?
__________________ “The church is near but the road is icy, the bar is far away but I will walk carefully”
---Russian proverb
My feelings are hurt too. Does a Pennsylvania (County) Republican Committeewoman not get any love?
Now, that depends. If you are a Republican Committee woman in Bucks or Pike counties, it is my feelings which should be hurt. It would mean that I already gave you some love and you've forgotten.
On the other hand, if you are in Lancaster County, any encounter we might have had would have been in the back of one of those horse-drawn buggies on the road from Bird-In-Hand to Intercourse and that is best left undiscussed in this thread.
But if you are a Republican in Philadelphia County, I am going to rush to you immediately. It's not often that I get the opportunity to enjoy an endangered species.
It is strange -- and a bit frightening -- how quickly we adjust to new situations.
A month ago, if Hizbollah had shot three rockets at Kiryat Shemona, and the Israeli Air Force had killed three Lebanese soldiers when it mistook their car for one carrying a top Hizbollah figure, there would have been worldwide headlines screaming that the region is on the edge of war.
Those two things did, indeed, happen. But not a month ago -- today.
Of course, there is a major difference. Yesterday, Hizbollah shot 140 rockets at Kiryat Shemona, not 3. Yesterday, the IAF was flying over most of Lebanon and shooting at many targets in the South, not just one.
So, when we look at today, we see it as a day of peace.
Dov/Bey, news reports are saying the 48hour cease-fire didn't last. Did they get everyone out (not likely) or did something happen to shorten the timeframe?
Also, this may have been answered before; can't quite remember. If all your earnings go to the kibbutz, how do you have income to pay the increasing Visa shopping bill?
There was never a cease-fire, just a cessation of Israeli air strikes. To a great degree that has held true, although there have been some exceptions.
At the same time, there has been a marked decrease in Hizbollah activities. Yesterday, there was 140 rocket attacks on Kiryat Shemona. Today, there were 3.
Sharon, my earnings do go to the kibbutz but, in turn, I get paid by the kibbutz. Additionally, my savings, investments, and returns on them from before my coming to the kibbutz belong to me. (Actually, I think my daughter believes they belong solely to her.)
...The problem here is that even if Israel and Lebanon were to make the same announcement, there is a third party -- Hizbollah -- which could start up the shooting again whenever it wishes.
There are members of Hizbollah in government (both parliament and cabinet) and Mr. Nabih Birri (Speaker of the House, if you like) speaks for Hizbollah. All of the parties mentioned above have asked for and have agreed on a cease fire no "ifs", "ands" or "buts". There is only one party that hasn't accepted a cease fire...
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New York Times names BEIRUT as top destination to visit in 2009. See the article here.
Again, I am asking that nobody, other than BEYFlyer, respond to what either he or I are posting in this exchange. To a great degree, this thread has been kept non-political and should remain so. The importance of what BEYFlyer and I are writing now is not so much in which of us might be right and which might be wrong, but in letting the rest of you see how the continuing stress of the fighting is -- or is not -- affecting how we feel.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BEYFlyer
There is only one party that hasn't accepted a cease fire...
BEYFlyer, did you hear Nasrallah's speech?
But I agree that Israel hasn't accepted a ceasefire. The view here is that a ceasefire without disarming Hizbollah means a temporary peace, followed by a much more destructive war after Hizbollah is given longer-range, more powerful, missiles by Iran.
Yesterday, it fired 140 missiles at Kiryat Shemona. This is a small town and katyushas are very difficult to aim, so the damage was nowhere as near as it might have been.
Let's imagine, however, that in 2 year's time it is able to fire 140 missiles in one day at Tel Aviv. The damage would be massive. In return, the IAF would level Beirut -- not just the southern suburbs but the entire city.
Dov, there are a few issues that need to be resolved for this "conflict" to end and Hizbollah (through its government reps and Nabih Birri) has made that very, VERY clear. They are:
- Cease fire
- Exchange of prisoners (3 Lebanese in Israeli jails)
- Right of refugees to return
- Return of Sheba'a farms (I think we both agree that Sheba'a are not Israeli; let us figure that out with Syria)
- Map of mines placed by Israel throughout Southern Lebanon during its 20+ year occupation
Once all those terms are satisfied, then Hizbollah (militia if you like) will disarm and cease to exist (but will most likely remain in politics and will remain very heavily involved socially). They have made that very well know to everyone in every single interview and discussion.
The events of yesterday have; however, shifted the entire Lebanese government's position (therefore that of Hizbollah) towards an unconditional cease fire first and foremost before anything else can be discussed.
So, I'm not sure what is going to happen next to be honest...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BEYFlyer
There are members of Hizbollah in government (both parliament and cabinet) and Mr. Nabih Birri (Speaker of the House, if you like) speaks for Hizbollah. All of the parties mentioned above have asked for and have agreed on a cease fire no "ifs", "ands" or "buts". There is only one party that hasn't accepted a cease fire...
BEY, good to see your's and Dov's green lights....Hope things stay calm
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