NBC News report says TSA claims it is signing up 16,000 people a day
May 26, 2016, 4:54 pm
#1
Original Poster
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 3,526
NBC News report says TSA claims it is signing up 16,000 people a day
NBC News report says TSA claims it is signing up 16,000 people a day.
No link yet from NBC but here's another link:
16,000 a day?
Raise your hand if you believe it.
No link yet from NBC but here's another link:
16,000 a day?
Raise your hand if you believe it.
Last edited by petaluma1; May 28, 2016 at 9:34 am
May 26, 2016, 7:43 pm
#2
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: DFW
Posts: 28,110
NBC News report says TSA claims it is signing up 16,000 people a day.
No link yet from NBC but here's another link:
16,000 a day?
Raise you hand if you believe it.
No link yet from NBC but here's another link:
16,000 a day?
Raise you hand if you believe it.
May 27, 2016, 4:59 am
#3
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: An NPR mind living in a Fox News world
Posts: 14,165
NBC News report says TSA claims it is signing up 16,000 people a day.
No link yet from NBC but here's another link:
16,000 a day?
Raise you hand if you believe it.
No link yet from NBC but here's another link:
16,000 a day?
Raise you hand if you believe it.
1. 300 enrollment centers
2. Same article says the interview takes 15 minutes, but let's assume 30 minutes.
3. The TSA claims enrollment centers are open 14 hours per day x 5 days per week. Given the @AskTSA documented complaints about no walk-ins accepted at certain sites or some of them being unexpectedly closed, let's assume the average is 12 hours.
So, running the numbers:
12 hours x 1/2 hour per interview = 24 interview slots at each site per day
24 slots x 300 sites = 7200 interview slots per day
The only way you can get to the TSA number is if every interview slot at every location was completely filled every day; and, each interview took the Business Insider-reported 15 minutes.
Or, there would have to be multiple slots in each of the 7200 slots per day.
So, possible conclusions:
1. If there is only one interview slot at each location (no simultaneous interviews), the 16,000 sign-ups are inflated by more than a factor of 2.
2. If there are simultaneous interview slots, the 16,000 figure is way below capacity.
Given the linked NBC report, and assuming the train wreck in Louisville is typical throught the country, conclusion #1 seems reasonable. Ultimately, however, why should we believe ANYTHING the TSA tells us?
Last edited by FliesWay2Much; May 27, 2016 at 5:05 am
May 27, 2016, 5:21 am
#4
Original Poster
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 3,526
Quick math check: (I have no personal experience because I never have, and never will, sign up for ExtortionCheck.)
1. 300 enrollment centers
2. Same article says the interview takes 15 minutes, but let's assume 30 minutes.
3. The TSA claims enrollment centers are open 14 hours per day x 5 days per week. Given the @AskTSA documented complaints about no walk-ins accepted at certain sites or some of them being unexpectedly closed, let's assume the average is 12 hours.
So, running the numbers:
12 hours x 1/2 hour per interview = 24 interview slots at each site per day
24 slots x 300 sites = 7200 interview slots per day
The only way you can get to the TSA number is if every interview slot at every location was completely filled every day; and, each interview took the Business Insider-reported 15 minutes.
Or, there would have to be multiple slots in each of the 7200 slots per day.
So, possible conclusions:
1. If there is only one interview slot at each location (no simultaneous interviews), the 16,000 sign-ups are inflated by more than a factor of 2.
2. If there are simultaneous interview slots, the 16,000 figure is way below capacity.
Given the linked NBC report, and assuming the train wreck in Louisville is typical throught the country, conclusion #1 seems reasonable. Ultimately, however, why should we believe ANYTHING the TSA tells us?
1. 300 enrollment centers
2. Same article says the interview takes 15 minutes, but let's assume 30 minutes.
3. The TSA claims enrollment centers are open 14 hours per day x 5 days per week. Given the @AskTSA documented complaints about no walk-ins accepted at certain sites or some of them being unexpectedly closed, let's assume the average is 12 hours.
So, running the numbers:
12 hours x 1/2 hour per interview = 24 interview slots at each site per day
24 slots x 300 sites = 7200 interview slots per day
The only way you can get to the TSA number is if every interview slot at every location was completely filled every day; and, each interview took the Business Insider-reported 15 minutes.
Or, there would have to be multiple slots in each of the 7200 slots per day.
So, possible conclusions:
1. If there is only one interview slot at each location (no simultaneous interviews), the 16,000 sign-ups are inflated by more than a factor of 2.
2. If there are simultaneous interview slots, the 16,000 figure is way below capacity.
Given the linked NBC report, and assuming the train wreck in Louisville is typical throught the country, conclusion #1 seems reasonable. Ultimately, however, why should we believe ANYTHING the TSA tells us?
May 27, 2016, 5:42 am
#5
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: An NPR mind living in a Fox News world
Posts: 14,165
Good point -- they may only be counting the hits on the website.
May 27, 2016, 8:28 am
#6
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Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 3,526
CBS NewsRadio 880 in NY interviewed the CEO of the company that processes PreCheck applications. (How much of the $85 fee goes to the company?) He indicated that yes, numbers have increased in the last few weeks but he never mentioned 16,000/day.
However, he did imply that, unlike we have been reading, it's a breeze to get signed up. Fill out the form on line, make your appointment or walk into an office, do a 4-minute interview, have your fingerprints taken and in 2-3 days you are good to go.
He also said something interesting: "Don't forget to make your appointment." So it might seem that many people are filling out the paperwork and then believing they are good to go.
However, he did imply that, unlike we have been reading, it's a breeze to get signed up. Fill out the form on line, make your appointment or walk into an office, do a 4-minute interview, have your fingerprints taken and in 2-3 days you are good to go.
He also said something interesting: "Don't forget to make your appointment." So it might seem that many people are filling out the paperwork and then believing they are good to go.
May 27, 2016, 4:20 pm
#9
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Posts: 3,526
May 27, 2016, 4:22 pm
#10
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Posts: 3,526
Lots of reports today of Pre centers being closed when ppl. arrive for appts., centers refusing to take walk-ins, weeks/months long waits for appointments.
Last edited by petaluma1; May 27, 2016 at 6:26 pm
May 28, 2016, 7:50 am
#12
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Location: An NPR mind living in a Fox News world
Posts: 14,165
ExtortionCheck Has Run Its Course
When all of this started, many of us clearly understood that the real purpose of ExtortionCheck was to silence TSA criticism by the group of flyers critical to airline success: the frequent business flyer. So, the TSA created a privileged class that had to completely rely on the TSA for that privilege. The airlines were happy because FFs were happy. Many of us related this privilege to the old Communist privilege system: aparachik.
The privilege eroded for a completely different reason when screening got completely out of control because of bizarre TSA management decisions and budget requests. Because everyone is mad at the TSA these days, placating FFs is no longer a factor. There is no longer a privileged class that must be kept under control. When you think about it, this is one reason why Communism collapsed...
The privilege eroded for a completely different reason when screening got completely out of control because of bizarre TSA management decisions and budget requests. Because everyone is mad at the TSA these days, placating FFs is no longer a factor. There is no longer a privileged class that must be kept under control. When you think about it, this is one reason why Communism collapsed...
May 28, 2016, 8:30 am
#13
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: on the path to perdition
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Posts: 4,785
If the TSA was smart they would work with CBP to have immediate sign up / finger print kiosks in every airport with long lines. People could sign up, give finger prints, verify identity, and file the paper work. Then the application would be processed. At that point they probably would have 16k signups a day.
May 28, 2016, 9:24 am
#14
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If the TSA was smart they would work with CBP to have immediate sign up / finger print kiosks in every airport with long lines. People could sign up, give finger prints, verify identity, and file the paper work. Then the application would be processed. At that point they probably would have 16k signups a day.
The truth is, TSA is neither prepared nor willing to handle an additional 16K Pre-qualified people a day. They still haven't figured out basic queue management principles.
May 28, 2016, 9:28 am
#15
Original Poster
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 3,526
When all of this started, many of us clearly understood that the real purpose of ExtortionCheck was to silence TSA criticism by the group of flyers critical to airline success: the frequent business flyer. So, the TSA created a privileged class that had to completely rely on the TSA for that privilege. The airlines were happy because FFs were happy. Many of us related this privilege to the old Communist privilege system: aparachik.
The privilege eroded for a completely different reason when screening got completely out of control because of bizarre TSA management decisions and budget requests. Because everyone is mad at the TSA these days, placating FFs is no longer a factor. There is no longer a privileged class that must be kept under control. When you think about it, this is one reason why Communism collapsed...
The privilege eroded for a completely different reason when screening got completely out of control because of bizarre TSA management decisions and budget requests. Because everyone is mad at the TSA these days, placating FFs is no longer a factor. There is no longer a privileged class that must be kept under control. When you think about it, this is one reason why Communism collapsed...
ETA: A good number of the tweets being posted at AskTSA this morning are full of praise for TSA and PreCheck.