Predictions For TSA Response to MH370

Old Mar 18, 2014, 9:25 am
  #46  
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Originally Posted by FliesWay2Much
Thanks to everybody for the great dialogue so far. I'll admit that I haven't read news websites in sufficient depth as to have noted what Fred has noted above.

I will say, however, that I don't think the TSA, DHS, and Congress have done a good job with the first phase in whatever is in store for us: Instilling fear in the public. They have to invent a threat that only they can save us from. To my knowledge, this hasn't happened yet. Even Blowhard-in-Chief Peter King has been silent.
RadioGirl and Fred and others missed one vital component that is slightly delaying the expected response.

There has to be a massively over-priced (just for the taxpayer) piece of necessary equipment that needs to be installed everywhere.

Unfortunately, there something might not have been quite ready for primetime, so behind the scenes Chertoff and his ilk are scrambling to get it ready for unveiling. Kind of like the guys on the low-budget BBC Dr. Who set getting a gizmo ready for the next taping.

One thing for sure: it won't have anything to do with the pilots.

In the near term, perhaps in addition to being required to state your name at the TDC, you will be required to provide proof of your occupation.

Engineers, aviation mechanics, McGyvers everywhere, get ready for additional scrutiny. Heaven help the little boy who shows up wearing plastic pilot's wings on his t-shirt.
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Old Mar 18, 2014, 9:31 am
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Originally Posted by chollie
...Heaven help the little boy who shows up wearing plastic pilot's wings on his t-shirt.
Heaven help us all...
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Old Mar 18, 2014, 10:39 am
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Well, let's see...

There is a lot of speculation that the pilot has somehow hijacked the plane and flown it off to Never-Never Land. Of course, if ONE pilot tried that, the other would stop him - unless the entire flight crew were in on it, or the offending pilot somehow overpowered the other one. Did this particular aircraft have a 3rd person on the flight deck, or was it just 2? A 3rd person makes it even harder, since you have to have a conspiracy of 3, or overpower 2, or some combination thereof.

But more focus has been given to the fact that two pax boarded the flight with stolen passports. Panicked cries of "How can that happen!?" have arisen from the great unwashed, who assume that passports are infalible electronic-based IDs like a credit card that can be zeroed out and replaced if lost or stolen (ignoring the massive ID theft problem world wide).

My guess is that TSA will not be the main focus here. DHS, instead, will focus on creating a mandatory National ID Card program, issueing each person in the US a biometric ID card with their photo, fingerprints, DNA, and SSN encoded on it.

TSA, along with every other government agency, will then spend trillions buying card and biometric reader stations for every security c/p in every US airport, every US government building, and every military base in the world. Every state, county, and city government will also buy the stations and put them in every state, county, and city building.

Private businesses will buy the stations as well, for use in corporate security, and for use by bars, restaurants, liquor stores, and pharmacies, as age and identity verification for purchasing liquor, tobacco products, and prescription medications.

Every hospital and health care provider in the country will buy them and use them to track medical records, health insurance coverages, and patient position within the facility.

Every police force in the country will invest in mobile readers to scan the cards for identy verification. Since the drivers license systems will be integrated into the NIDC system, when you get pulled over, you'll be asked to present your NIDC instead of license and registration. Oh, and your vehicle registration and insurance information will be tracked by the NIDC system as well, so all the cop will have to do is scan your card and have you press your finger to the reader.

And of course, all of this equipment will initially be magnetic strip-based, meaning that every piece of hardware and software will need complete replacement five years down the line when someone realizes that RFID-based systems are better.

Then, after about 15 or 20 years, the entire system will be enhanced by a surgically implanted RFID tag that can be read from a distance, much like "chipped pet" tracking systems that are already in use.

Because ID matters!

Originally Posted by FredAnderssen
How do people on the no-fly list ever get home? They don't. But I suppose if you lose your I.D. while on vacation, you'll have to make your way to your embassy. Hopefully, they won't need as much proof of your identity as Homeland Security will soon require.
As far as I know, there is no US Embassy in Orlando, nor is there a Maryland Embassy in Florida, so I guess if I lose my ID while I'm at Disney World, I'm SOL.
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Old Mar 18, 2014, 10:52 am
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By allowing all US airlines to randomly allow just about anyone and everyone in to the TSA Pre Check line, which is what they are currently doing.
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Old Mar 18, 2014, 11:24 am
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Originally Posted by chollie
RadioGirl and Fred and others missed one vital component that is slightly delaying the expected response.

There has to be a massively over-priced (just for the taxpayer) piece of necessary equipment that needs to be installed everywhere.
I will probably agree with you on this one, but it will have to be accompanied by an exponential increase in TSA to cull out the false positives created by your machine. Enormously expensive, this wasteful program/machine will be mothballed in a few years, but all the TSA hired to accompany it will remain on the job, and will, in fact, get raises.

Originally Posted by chollie

Engineers, aviation mechanics, McGyvers everywhere, get ready for additional scrutiny. Heaven help the little boy who shows up wearing plastic pilot's wings on his t-shirt.
This is definitely a given. I predict that toy planes will be confiscated along with sock monkey six-shooters and Woody guns.

Originally Posted by Schmurrr
EDIT: Yes! Armed TSA special forces personnel in the cockpit to monitor the pilots! They will need at least rudimentary pilot training in case they have to incapacitate the official pilots. Such personnel can also stand guard during pilot bathroom breaks.

Then we need armed TSA personnel to watch the watchers, in case the armed cockpit TSA employee goes rogue despite background checks.
The problem with TSA in the cockpit is that they're the least trustworthy of all personnel at the airport. I would rather have any airport vendor, ground worker, baggage loader, or bathroom janitor monitoring the cockpit than a TSO. At least the aforementioned have a work ethic and a moral compass.

Originally Posted by WillCAD
As far as I know, there is no US Embassy in Orlando, nor is there a Maryland Embassy in Florida, so I guess if I lose my ID while I'm at Disney World, I'm SOL.
And you're doubly SOL since you won't be able to rent a car without ID. I guess you'll be hoofing it back home. But look on the bright side: you won't have to rent a boat.
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Old Mar 18, 2014, 11:40 am
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Originally Posted by FredAnderssen
And you're doubly SOL since you won't be able to rent a car without ID. I guess you'll be hoofing it back home. But look on the bright side: you won't have to rent a boat.
You know, I've never tried it, but I would imagine that renting a boat anywhere in Florida carries its own unique set of DHS/DEA/ICE challenges.
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Old Mar 18, 2014, 12:02 pm
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Originally Posted by WillCAD
You know, I've never tried it, but I would imagine that renting a boat anywhere in Florida carries its own unique set of DHS/DEA/ICE challenges.
Only if your skin color tends towards that of an Italian or darker and your last name has a 'med' or the like at the end.
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Old Mar 18, 2014, 1:45 pm
  #53  
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Originally Posted by WillCAD

As far as I know, there is no US Embassy in Orlando, nor is there a Maryland Embassy in Florida, so I guess if I lose my ID while I'm at Disney World, I'm SOL.
Rumor has it that DHS is forcing visitors to have passports to get into the World Showcase at Epcot.

Frankly, I think all of you are much too pessimistic. I like to think that someone at the TSA is going to look at the situation and say, "Ya know, airport security had nothing to do with this one. Maybe we're overestimating the threat and should just go back to the way things were before 9/11."

Mike
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Old Mar 20, 2014, 10:28 am
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They'll probably just stop people from flying altogether.
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Old Mar 20, 2014, 10:46 am
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TSA is not going to do what it takes.

1. Nude-o-Scopes work. No, not the newer ones with a human outline and large dots to tell the TSA officers approximately where to search for some amorphous item which deserves a closer look or shouldn't get through at all. I'm talking about the original ones, before the civil libertarians got involved. Once, in the early days of the scopes, in response to my request, a friendly officer at LHR yelled to his colleague to retain the image of me so that I could look at it. After I went through security, I went into the back. It shows everything, and in pretty good detail. I had no idea that I had rolls of fat there, the result of insufficient exercise. If someone is carrying something, you see a fairly exact outline of it on the scope. So not only does the officer know approximately where to look, as in the U.S. now, s/he knows exactly where to look and what to look for. People complain and say that it's invasive? IT IS INVASIVE. That's the whole point. You can't hide anything. At the risk of sounding callous, I wonder if the people who object because it's too invasive will change their opinions after they lose a relative to a terrorist device which would have been found more easily and precisely on the more detailed scope display. At many, possibly even most, airports outside the U.S., you don't fly if you don't want to be scoped.

2. TSA officers have to start taking themselves and their jobs more seriously. Been through security at HKG lately? Or TLV? You don't hear a lot of chit-chat among the security officers about last weekend's NFL game of the week. They pay appropriate attention to what they're doing, given that their job is, literally, to save lives. Their eyes are on the pax, the scanners and the items being scanned, not each other. They take themselves seriously and treat pax professionally. They're not looking around to see who's on break or when it's their turn. Their entire attention is focused on the passenger they're screening at that particular moment. If TSA officers act like professionals and approach their responsibilities like professionals, I bet that they'll find that the attitude of the public towards them improves drastically. It might not be such a crazy idea to have TSA officers trained, managed and supervised by the military.

3. Pre-Check. I hate to say it, because I love Pre-Check and have a success rate approaching 100% (I've only been denied once), but everyone needs to go through the full screening process. With Pre-Check, we're betting our lives that terrorists are unable to recruit people who can get themselves approved or have already been approved. While the chances may be quite slim, when you lose, you lose big. Your life. That's a mighty big bet, no? Are FTers really prepared to make that bet?

Just my 2˘. Feel free to disagree. As someone I consider a mentor once told me, we only evolve by continuously challenging our ideas, thoughts and beliefs.

Last edited by Dr. HFH; Mar 20, 2014 at 11:17 am
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Old Mar 20, 2014, 11:06 am
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Soon you will have to apply (and pay for) a permit or license to fly, that will require biometric samples, an exhaustive background check and in person interview that will be renewed on a regular periodic basis. These permits will be expanded to all forms of public transportation. (pre-Check is just the beginning.)
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Old Mar 20, 2014, 2:58 pm
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Originally Posted by Dr. HFH
...
1. Nude-o-Scopes work. No, not the newer ones with a human outline and large dots to tell the TSA officers approximately where to search for some amorphous item which deserves a closer look or shouldn't get through at all. I'm talking about the original ones, before the civil libertarians got involved...
Please provide proof that NOSs work. A cost-benefit assessment and a comparative analysis vs. alternative procedures would be fantastic.

Please consider that the backscatter NOSs subjected travelers en masse to medically unnecessary x-rays. IMO, that is more heinous than the invasion of privacy.

Please consider that body cavity searches are also invasive, and they would catch a category of hidden items that the NOSs miss. Are you a proponent of body cavity searches for all? Or do you admit that freedom and security must be balanced?

Originally Posted by Dr. HFH
... At the risk of sounding callous, I wonder if the people who object because it's too invasive will change their opinions after they lose a relative to a terrorist device which would have been found more easily and precisely on the more detailed scope display...
It is more likely that my relative will die in a car crash, will be shot by a cop, will die from using prescription medicine, will die from cancer, will die from heart disease, etc. Maybe the government could spend taxpayer money on highway safety and medical research instead of on NOSs and mass surveillance!

I do not think anybody here says that airport security is unnecessary. It should just be cost-effective, proportionate to the threat, and consistent with Constitutional and human rights.
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Old Mar 20, 2014, 3:39 pm
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Originally Posted by alphaod
They'll probably just stop people from flying altogether.
+1
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Old Mar 20, 2014, 5:05 pm
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Originally Posted by Dr. HFH
At the risk of sounding callous, I wonder if the people who object because it's too invasive will change their opinions after they lose a relative to a terrorist device which would have been found more easily and precisely on the more detailed scope display. At many, possibly even most, airports outside the U.S., you don't fly if you don't want to be scoped.
At the risk of sounding realistic, some people change their opinions after losing a relative to someone who has been charged with a DUI and is still driving. OTOH, most people don't want to see a DUI lose his/her license permanently and spend a mandatory 10 years in jail.


Originally Posted by Dr. HFH
2. TSA officers have to start taking themselves and their jobs more seriously. Been through security at HKG lately? Or TLV? You don't hear a lot of chit-chat among the security officers about last weekend's NFL game of the week. They pay appropriate attention to what they're doing, given that their job is, literally, to save lives. Their eyes are on the pax, the scanners and the items being scanned, not each other. They take themselves seriously and treat pax professionally. They're not looking around to see who's on break or when it's their turn. Their entire attention is focused on the passenger they're screening at that particular moment. If TSA officers act like professionals and approach their responsibilities like professionals, I bet that they'll find that the attitude of the public towards them improves drastically. It might not be such a crazy idea to have TSA officers trained, managed and supervised by the military.
The checkpoints in other countries generally have far fewer staff, so there's less opportunity to stand around and gab or check cellphones. They are professional and polite - but they are not and do not act like military or law enforcement. Frankly, they have more in common with medical professionals who check you out for your safety and well-being, polite, considerate and as minimally invasive as is consistent with the task at hand.

We have had TSOs post here who were former military and who have told us that many frontline TSOs are former military. Do you see evidence of that discipline at the checkpoint? I suspect the ex-military TSOs are the ones who are more likely to bark orders and expect immediate, unquestioning compliance and respect for their superior 'rank'.
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Old Mar 20, 2014, 5:47 pm
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"To prevent pilot hijackings, no persons with pilot skills or aircraft flight abilities stored in their brains will be allowed into the locked cockpit of any aircraft."

Well, it will be 100% effective. . .
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