oc123

Howdy all,

I am an AA Exp Plat living in HK and I am slowing shifting to Asia Miles, now I am a Silver member.

I am going to the US over Chinese New Year, flying CX into LAX and going to ORD on AA. On the return, I can come back via any CX gateway to HKG. What are my chances for Op Up on the outbound (1pm flight HKG LAX Feb 4)?

Which city should I route through to get best chance of Op Up for my return on Feb 14? LAX, SFO, YYR, JFK...?

Thanks much for your input in advance.

cxfan1960

You can check Seatcounter or EF on the loading before making reservations. I got op-ups for two last CNY on HKG-SFO, but CX added another flight last October, and that may reduce the chance for op-ups.

In general, however, op-up is very probabilistic. I would encourage you to select a route/time most convenient for you. There are going to be many CX DM/GO traveling as well.

EricUSC

CX only does op-ups from economy to business if economy class if oversold.

I'm an AA Platinum (OW Sapphire) and I recently completed the following flights with paid economy tickets and received an upgrade on the 1 pm HKG-LAX flight:

Jan 1 CX885 LAX-HKG 11:20 AM
Economy class was 80% full, so nobody was upgraded.

Jan 10 CX884 HKG-LAX 1:10 PM
Economy class was oversold, so I was upgraded to business class.

I guess you can check seatcounter.com and see which flights appear to have the the fullest economy class.

QRC3288

Good move to MPC, after the new op-up rules (see this thread http://flyertalk.com/forum/showthrea...op-up+priority) AAdvantage members and other OW members are really at a disAAdvantage (and for the sake of all of us, if anyone wants to restart a debate about that go do it on the other thread about the new op-up rules). The order is:

1. CX Diamond Plus
2. CX Diamond / Invitational
3. CX Gold
* 4. CX Staff
* 5. Non-CX staff / CX Staff nominees
6. One World Emerald
7. One World Sapphire
8. CX Silver
9. One World Ruby
10. CX Green
11. Asia Miles
12. Non-members

As you can see, CX GOs have priority even over OW Emeralds (AA Exp Plats). I can guarantee that under normal circumstances there will be at least 4-5 DMs and GOs ahead of you sitting in Y, and then you have to cross your fingers and make sure you have a higher sequence # than the other OW Emeralds.

ErinUSC had an interesting situation from HKG-LAX as an AA Plat - my experience as a CX DM is that HKG-LAX is still a difficult route to get Op-up on, because Y is usually the last class to fill-up on that route, unlike say HKG-JFK (my hunch is that for ErinUSC's case early Jan didn't have too many business pax yet from after the holidays, and lots of HKG students were heading back to the US to resume studies, hence the reversal of Y being full and J/F not). My last time on the route in Nov, as well as before that in September they op-upped J-F, and were still compensating J pax to downgrade to Y. The second time I did a paid upgrade J-F because there was only one seat left in F and I really wanted to sleep, and there were other DMs on the plane. Same situation - they still had to pay pax to downgrade to Y.

SFO-HKG is another issue - SFO-HKG actually has the same capacity on the route as LAX-HKG (4 flights daily), because SQ also does a SFO-HKG route (in addition to UA, which does both LAX and SFO). Y class is sometimes not full, and my experience with J and F out of SFO last year (on CX) is that they often are not completely full either. An extreme example about the SFO-HKG capacity issues, my flight SFO-HKG on Dec 31 in F.....there were two of us total, J was less than 50% full, and Y had less than 150 pax.

cxfan1960 - who I think is a DM, so his chances of the op-up are much higher - is right, pick the time that works for you instead of the chances for op-up. Sorry to disappoint, but once they changed the priority for op-up it certainly got harder for other OW guys to get it.

77W_12A

Back in October, I got an op-up from Business to First on CX 881. It was totally unexpected as I had checked the EF site. I always assume that I won't get one. If it happens, it's a nice surprise.

The best chance for op-up from my experience CX 713. I've taken that flight 6 times, and received one 5 out of 6 times.

QRC3288

Before or after the changes in the CX op-up priority list?

cxfan1960

Yes, I am a DM, at least still a DM for now. Long haul J->F op-ups are generally easier than Y->J op-ups for CX these days. I travel mostly on Y unless paid for by customers.

Kit Angel

QRC has it right for SFO, in my experience. I fly HKG-SFO r/t monthly and am a DM. I go out HKG-SFO on a Thursday and return on Sunday night. Over the previous 2 years of DM , I would often get an op-up. However, since the second flight went on, I have not had an op-up on either sector.

The capacity planners seem to have done a really good job for the company, if not me - usually about two to four seats left in the J cabin when I travel.

That said, I understand that the planes have recently been full on the Friday evenings and Saturdays from SFO to HKG now the winds are strong and weight an issue, resulting in downgrades and compensations .

77W_12A

I did a HKG BKK segment back in October '07 and got op-up to First. So, this was after the changes. Also an op-up on CX 881 from LAX-HKG in Oct. from Business to First.