Traveling to London and already have a place stay at a friend's, with that said I'd probably like to grab a few nights rest in a hotel. Is it better to book weeks out, or are the prices more competitive the day of?
Your situation is perfect in that you already have a back-up plan. And you could consider different nights, so you can try the same bid across the calendar to seek the rate dips.
The more zones you are willing to bid, the better your chances of success.
There is a good discussion of bidding timing in betterbidding.com FAQs, but the conclusion is essentially the same as Tony10s's - no rhyme or reason.
If you are departing via air and the departure is early in the day, the last night could be spent in an airport hotel. These tend to be quite a bit less expensive.
No rhyme or reason
For me, either a month out or
Within a week of arrival
+1
I think so much depends on the individual hotels. As the date draws nearer, some of them may be more desperate to unload inventory if occupancy rates are low for that night. But if a place is booking up quickly (e.g., for some event) then the deals may evaporate as you get closer to the date.
I do, however, find that trying to book far in advance (4 months or more) generally yields less appealing deals than if you try to book a bit later. But once you're in that 3 months or less window the prices are better, perhaps because some hotels are trying to attract reservations for rooms they know would otherwise be unused on those nights.