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Old Nov 9, 05, 6:32 am   #1
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
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Probability of crash calculator

I remember a few years ago seeing some website that you could enter you depature and destination and airline, and it would calculate the probability of a crash, anyone know of this or have the link, google is giving me nothing...

I'm not a nervous flyer, but trying to reassure a colleague of mine who is (also think it was kinda interesting)

Cheers

G
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Old Nov 9, 05, 6:36 am   #2
 
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www.airsafe.com is a good place for info, though I'm not sure it has a calculator as such.
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Old Nov 9, 05, 6:43 am   #3
 
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crash rate

Hi,

Send me the details via a PM and I will be able to work out a rough number for you. This service is not open to all!

Spottie.
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Old Nov 9, 05, 7:12 am   #4
 
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The site you were thinking of was www.amigoingdown.com - which, before you click, is now defunct.

Quite amusing nonetheless - gave an estimate of you chance of death on any given flight on the basis of route / airline / date of travel. Not entirely sure how accurate though!
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Old Nov 9, 05, 7:17 am   #5
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tu114
The site you were thinking of was www.amigoingdown.com - which, before you click, is now defunct.

Quite amusing nonetheless - gave an estimate of you chance of death on any given flight on the basis of route / airline / date of travel. Not entirely sure how accurate though!
Yeah that was the one... shame its gone
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Old Nov 9, 05, 7:25 am   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gazza75
I remember a few years ago seeing some website that you could enter you depature and destination and airline, and it would calculate the probability of a crash, anyone know of this or have the link, google is giving me nothing...
Indeed there was a website with a crash probability calculator.
It was called amigoingdown.com
Unfortunately (it was a lot of fun...) it no longer exists.
I seem to remember it not giving you much chance if taking a flight on a Russian airline....

Last edited by clubman; Nov 9, 05 at 7:28 am.
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Old Nov 9, 05, 7:29 am   #7
 
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Answered.

I thought that "Am I Going Down dot com" was some interesting pay to view webcam site based on the auction value to get the "actress" to perform various services depending on the credit card contributions.

Still, it has been a long time since I went down anywhere remotely interesting. It does feel like the probability of the crash at one in ten million, winning the lottery at one in fourteen million and my love life working out are about the same....
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Old Nov 9, 05, 7:30 am   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tu114
The site you were thinking of was www.amigoingdown.com - which, before you click, is now defunct.
!
Sorry Tu114, you beat me to it, didn't see your answer there.
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Old Nov 9, 05, 8:52 am   #9
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tu114
The site you were thinking of was www.amigoingdown.com - which, before you click, is now defunct.
It was a bit of fun that site. Who cares if it was accurate.

IIRC the probability of T/A flights on AA crashing was about 5/6/7 million to one. BA T/A flights were slightly higher I think. The highest I came across was LHR-DUB on EI which IIRC was about 11/12m to 1. The lowest I flew was GCM-HAV on Cubana which was either 32,000 or 16,000 to 1.
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Old Nov 9, 05, 9:29 am   #10
 
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When I was back in school (admittedly many years ago...) we did this calculation for fun and we were all relieved to work out that on average we would live to something like 25,000 years old before we went down in flames...

Lot of BA miles before that happens!
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Old Nov 9, 05, 12:05 pm   #11
 
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Cumulative risks

Ah, the good old schoolboy error of understanding probability and exposure. I think that the chap who sat next to me at primary school would disagree as his dad was killed in the Paris DC 10 crash. Perhaps his dad was very old!

If you look at the assumptions that you made at school, it might have assumed that you fly one return trip a year to Spain. So, lots of BA miles, but what are you going to redeem them on?

Spottie.
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Old Nov 9, 05, 1:02 pm   #12
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by clubman
Sorry Tu114, you beat me to it, didn't see your answer there.
Quite all right - probably both submitted at the same moment!
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Old Nov 9, 05, 3:58 pm   #13
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spotwelder
Ah, the good old schoolboy error of understanding probability and exposure.
I did say it was a loooong time ago.

Quote:
Originally Posted by spotwelder
So, lots of BA miles, but what are you going to redeem them on? Spottie.
J to California with all the family next summer all booked up already ...
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