sxc

I am a Cathay Pacific Marco Polo member who is being shafted out of the club due to the changes they are imposing. In evaluating other programs, it seems that BA is probably going to be the most advantageous to me as WTP earns a decent amount of TP, and I fly to Europe once a year at least so I will be able to meet the BA flying criteria.

Of course AA is the most generous, but given they are due a program refresh, I don't want to bank with them and then have their program suddenly change.

Given that the last change to the way TP were earnt was in 2012 (I think), do you think BAEC is due a devaluation in the way status is earnt? My thought is that it would be too soon to have a devaluation especially since the GGL level has been adjusted recently.

I know any answers people give is purely speculation, but would be interested to know what your thoughts are.

Flyingturkey

Given the recent changes to discount economy tickets/TP earning, are yet to filter through to the number of silver cards/ people just reaching gold. We are probably fairly safe for a while, I imagine they will be evaluating numbers in the lounges once a full year has passed.

Ldnn1

The last changes to TP earnings were in April this year. While they did not change the basic distance bandings/boundaries, there were very major changes to the way economy flights earn TPs.

I don't think there will be any further major changes announced at least for the next year or so, hopefully for quite a few years.

Land-of-Miles

I think BA will follow LH in reducing credit for discounted J and F. I would expect this to happen in the next 12 months. Rightly or wrongly they seem to believe that this drives purchasing decisions. I disagree but I think that BA will go down this route.

South London Bon Viveur

I would have thought the reduced TP earnings for low economy fares will have driven those who do most of their travel in Europe (as I normally do, although this year has seen more LH than usual) to book CE in order to maintain status, even if this comes out of their own pocket because many corporate travel policies stipulate Y only in Europe. If that is the case, notwithstanding the enhacing away of CE as a hard product, BA ends up winning, because when push comes to shove we like our lounge access, premium check in and fast track entitlements.

MPH1980

I fall into the "I'd be surprised" camp. Not saying it won't happen - but as has been highlighted - it's less than 12 months since the last change and it will take time for the impact to filter through.

Will those GGLs affected stop flying BA? Will the devaluation in economy short haul hurt? Will it have no impact?

If it does have little or minimal impact - I'd expect BA to make further earning/burning changes. But this response is assuming that BA are patient enough to wait the 2 full years they *should* wait before evaluating the impact. I have a sneaking suspicion they aren't that patient.

What I *would* expect in the next 12 months is changes to benefits. We're still awaiting news on one improvement (UUA from more economy classes) - but I'd expect further devaluations after that.

LupineChemist

There's already a differentiation on IB if that's any indicator.

OverTheHorizon

My top picks for things which cost virtually nothing to implement yet have (some) impact on costs:

• Lounge guesting restricted to pax on the same PNR
• Checked baggage allowance trimmed
• Possibly - reduction in AA 2k+ TP earning. After all, this is largely in BA's gift...
  

greyguy1

Wait a year, ask again.

irishguy28

What does this mean?

Land-of-Miles

BA would find it hard to justify different rules for AA than other OW partners and giving different credit levels to OW partners than to BA flights of similar lengths.

BA could bump up the mileage threshold to reduce the number of AA domestics that would trigger LH TP's but I think it would be easier to restrict P class earning.

OverTheHorizon

AA routes over 2000 miles long flown in booking classes F,P & A are eligible to earn 210 BA Tier Points; these flights can be remarkably good value...

There's scope to reduce the TPs awarded on P class tickets I think, though I've no idea how hard that would be in OW terms...

Ldnn1

It needn't affect non-US flights at all. BA could introduce a very simple rule that 2-class domestic F in the US earns at business rates, as is already the case when booked in I-class.

Of course, we all hope they don't.

MPH1980

I'm going to guess the problem for BA is knowing whether the flight is 2 or 3 class when the TPs come in. It's easier when it's a code share (they'd know the valid options) - but when it's a US/AA coded flight and BA look the code up to see F/A/P ... that's first class as far as the system is concerned.

BA would either have to hold a lookup table of 'which flights were 2 class v 3 class' which has to be maintained (remember - this is historical rather than future - so you can't rely on what's there for today/tomorrow) OR AA would have to change to use different booking codes for the 2 class.

You'd then get into the mess of aircraft substitution ... Someone was on a 2 class booking ... but a 3 class aircraft showed up ... is that 210 or 140? Someone was on a 3 class booking but a 2 class shows up ... is that still 210?

NickB

Those kinds of last minute aircraft substitutions do not normally affect booking class, so should not have any effect on TPs.