1010101

The reason IAG exists in the first place is because between them BA and IB were on the verge of going under at various stages in the last few years. They have already consolidated, and are clearly looking to further strengthen it as it is working.

Most of the other major European airlines are still struggling.

stifle

Air India does not serve Boston.
Presume he's still trying to get his space project together.

Overall I would selfishly love to see this on the assumption that it would mean TPs and RFS to ORK!

VFRonTop

I could see this working, the following are my initial thoughts.

Assumptions:
EI is maintained as a separate brand
EI rejoins OW

Alliance
Pro/Con?
EI re-joining OW. This would mean TP, avios and lounge access for all fares ex-IRL. Also the potential of a decent FF programme as opposed to the pathetically lack lustre reality of Gold Circle Club. EI would add limited benefits to OW as EI already has codeshares with BA and others already.

Cons
Current EI interline/codeshare agreements would have to be reviewed/exited. After the fallout with AA, UA has become the NA domestic partner of choice, and the growing relationship with JetBlue has been beneficial to EI. I'm not sure if these would be able to continue. Use of T5 in JFK as well as the potential of a new GC lounge in T5i would all be at risk.

Which also brings us to the issue of terminal use in LHR? Currently there are only two terminals in LHR that can handle UK/IRL flights, T2 and T5. With T2 now billed as a *A hub I’m not sure how tenable it would be for EI to remain there. It would also hamper OW connections. Which means T5 is the only alternative, and as many of you are already aware T5 is bursting at the seams as it is. This would potentially be remediated by moving further O&D orientated flights to T3.

This would have an effect on ground products. EI have recently opened their GC lounge in T2 at LHR and as previously mentioned are planning a new lounge at T5i in JFK. Although if EI joining IAG means that GC lounges are more closely aligned to the Galleries/VIP Salas I’d be all for it.


Fleet Commonality:
Pros
Current EI fleet is Airbus so no issues there
Current 757 and 767 leases could be more favourable with IAG clout behind them
Future fleet acquisition would definitely be more favourable with the economies of scale associated with IAG

Cons?

Product Commonality
Pros
EI will have an enhanced l/h J product by March 2015 which will be broadly in line with BA, IB and other OW partners

Cons
No s/h J product on EI, though there are rumours of this being reviewed. EI is a BOB service in s/h as well as on economy l/h for liquor et al.


Routes
Pros
EI and DUB is a well positioned North American hub for Ireland and the UK (ex LHR). By diverting NA connecting traffic away from BA domestic to EI via DUB and pre-clear, BA could free up slots currently being used on domestic routes while leaving the business orientated flights and/or supplementing them with more LCY/Cityflier services. Meanwhile EI could continue to grow its American footprint. The possibility of the A321neo opens up a lot of possibilities for EI on the east coast.

EI is one of the few profitable shorthaul carriers in Europe, if/when BA needs to expand euro destinations out of LHR EI may offer a cost advantage.

Cons
No competition on DUBLHR and BHDLHR routes. Europe has set a precedent on looking at airport pairs not city pairs (see FR/EI ruling) so I’m not sure the LGW/LTN/STN/SEN argument will hold much weight. That said, would it be beyond the realms of possibility that any divested slots for these two routes couldn’t go to VS Little Red? They are proven routes and would serve VS well. Not sure of EI could continue to provide Little Red services though.

MBDublin

I think VFRonTop summaries this quite nicely and I think that strategically there is a lot more to this than just the LHR slots.

If your preference is for BAEC/OW and you have the option of MAN-LHR-JKF or MAN-DUB-JKF both earning similar TP's and avios and with broadly equivalent J and Y class experiences, What would you choose?

The advantage of avoiding LHR and pre clearance in DUB would be a strong option for many people.

Local media discussion here this morning suggesting that this has a very strong possibility of happening next year.

Calchas

Interesting post. I've made my own comments.

You could preclear in DUB, if EI joined the TATL partnership. There's no other way to do this on OW except CWLCY. Don't forget that it's BA that has the relationship with EI, not oneworld.

BA already interlines with B6. BA TATL fares are valid on B6 transfers. No reason why EI could not as well.

Maybe. AA/AY/US and BA/IB already use different terminals.

Well the North American flights are getting pushed out to T3 anyway. Given the sheer volume of DUB-LHR traffic it might be quite difficult to move them out of T2 in the short term.

IB shorthaul Y is BoB. I doubt the TATL venture would tolerate BoB liquor, but it's a small point.

Fewer domestic flights is a pro?? Not from my end it isn't. Except for Scotland and Belfast, there is a big component of traffic that is pure feed on the domestics. You can't shift it to anywhere else. There would be no point in moving MAN, NCL or LBA to LCY.

Also, many of the domestic pax are not going to North America, nor are they going to an NA destination served by EI. BA does fly to some other places too.

VS Little Red is closing down soon anyway. The slots will return to BA to use as it wishes.

LON-DUB is an enormously busy air route, but there is plenty of LCC competition to hold prices down from other London airports.

BlackBerryAddict

Looks like WW is a bit bored, now that BA and IB are doing ok, and he isn't involved in the day to day running of an airline anymore.

IAG was specifically set up to acquire airlines. No wonder he is looking around. I suspect he has already got MOL on his side - they had a deal last time when FR tried to acquire EI. And FR needs to divest its EI shares - rather than dump them on the open market it would be much better to have a half decent deal.

There is also some more fleet commonality - both have the A350 on order.

paulwuk

How about a OW hub at SNN? A bit like eurohub of old? Multiple flights arrive in SNN, from LCY, MAN, GLA, AMS, etc, go through pre-clearence, then multiple J only flights depart to JFK, BOS, ORD, etc?

Expand the A318 fleet, have a dozen planes instead of 2.

I suppose the problem would be scale and delays. Preclearence works with 30 passenegers on BA1, but if you increased this to say 8 flights at 30 each, feeding from LCY, MAN, GLA, EDI, AMS, BRU, ORY, FRA, and then sent them on to JFK, EWR, IAD (DCA would be great, but alas), BOS, ORD, PHL, YYT and YUL (no pre-clearence), you'd have 240 people to pre-clear in say an hour. You'd also have to match up 8 flights with incoming slots and schedules, and a delay on FRA-SNN would lead to a delay on all 8 flights.

But if you had 8 on the first wave, and then had a smaller second wave (say LCY, FRA, CDG to JFK only), you might be able to cope with a late inbound from MUC.

VFRonTop

Interesting points Calchas. Pre-clear would be a big draw for customers as well as the reduced APD if flying via DUB.

I know VS Little Red is on its death-bed but surely the thought of DUBLHR and BHDLHR slots would interest them and potentially keep the service alive?

FR as the alternative is possible (can you do a 25 min turnaround in LHR?)

I think that the DAA would also be a big fan of this. Their longterm expansion plans could be secured by this tie up and a 2nd runway at DUB would provide plenty of growth potential. Pre-clearance on the otherhand might be put under further pressure.

layz

Your business model would then be up to the whims of the US government. Stop pre-clearance altogether and these services would lose their attraction. Change the opening times of pre-clearance (like what happened to BA 3) and some services may miss the cut-off.

To make it more attractive to passengers they'd need more facilities in SNN (lounges, shops, etc) because there'd be waiting for the connecting flight.

paulwuk

With 240 CW passengers a day I'm sure BA could invest in a lounge of some sort.

BlackBerryAddict

Little Red is operated by Aer Lingus. If IAG buys Aer Lingus it finds itself in the curious position of operating services for Virgin Atlantic. That won't last long.

VS would have to find someone else to operate Little Red - but who would want to take that on considering the experience so far?

Calchas

APD would not be reduced in this scenario. APD applies for the whole journey, not just the first hop.

I don't think VS are strategically interested in shorthaul anymore.

Only plausible from a domestic flight. But there's no way FR will ever pay LHR's landing fees.

The US would love to see more preclearance so they won't mind expanding the facility. At the travellers' cost of course.

Calchas

There are plenty of operators who would do it at the right price. Remember any airline in the EU with a few spare A319s could potentially do it.

But this is hypothetical. The VS service will end once their contract with EI expires.
http://www.theguardian.com/business/...le-red-service

chrismk

Evidently, Aer Lingus have 23 LHR slots. That has to be an incentive, especially with all the dithering re a third runway.

paulwuk

Given a typical CW R class flight LHR-IAH is about £7k, I don't think APD makes any difference to business flight choices.

If you're talking J only (so high-fare, low-volume), and extra £30 a passenger won't be noticed - that's £1k per A318s worth, it's 1% of a typical (and this is an underestimate) £3k return. Not everyone flying CW is on £600 WTP with UUA.

As economy gets pushed towards standing-room-only, I see a larger market in the future for business, or ideally Premium-economy/business (like the original openskies), flights with pre-clearence and other time-saving features.