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What impact will the new ECML franchise have on BA to NCL and EDI

What impact will the new ECML franchise have on BA to NCL and EDI

Old Nov 27, 2014, 6:56 am
  #16  
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Originally Posted by BerksFlyer
Firstly, although East Coast is profitable it's nowhere near as profitable as the new company will need to be to pay the premiums it has promised to the government. East coast returned Ł202.8m in 2012/13 and Ł216.8m in 2013/14. Just look at how much Stagecoach/Virgin have offered and you'll soon realised that something needs to change dramatically. The vast majority of costs are fixed so the only realistic two ways to get more money are increase fares or get more bums on seats. The existing pricing strategy will definitely not deliver what's needed.

Secondly, how do you get more revenue from finding timetabling efficiencies?
Exactly - the current revenue model has been perfected very well over the years and I doubt there could be any more significant efficiencies.

People said the same when National Express took over, but it's obvious that they can't pay more to the government, while improving the quality of service delivered to the passengers and not increasing fares above inflation.

The only way I can see them meeting targets is if the new trains are significantly more efficient than the old ones but the extra amount they pay the government is likely to be more than any efficiencies bring in.

That said since posting I've read the Stagecoach press release and interested in the fact they intend to staff more of the first class lounges. Newcastle used to be staffed in the GNER days but National Express enhanced that away.

They also mention free WiFi, which is currently only free in First Class. This was attempted by National Express and only meant that the increased demand meant that the wifi was even more unusable than ever.

My conclusion: the government hasn't learned the mistakes of previous franchises. To allow National Express to repeat the same mistakes as GNER was foolish, to do it again is totally negligent!
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Old Nov 27, 2014, 7:02 am
  #17  
 
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Not so sure that any revenue traffic will be affected on the NCL-LHR as I think it's two separate markets, although hard to predict.

On a personal note, I liked East Coast (best service we've had since BR) and their little reward scheme; it's come in handy on many an occasion. I'm guessing the northerly commuting VS crew will be delighted though......can't see there being as many red uniforms spotted on the shuttles anymore!!
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Old Nov 27, 2014, 7:03 am
  #18  
 
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Part of the issue with the last franchise owner was that their financial model was apparently based around significant penalty payments from Network Rail for infrastructure failings. As NR improved the reliability of the infrastructure on the EC these payments diminished - and the model fell apart.

In terms of NCL - LHR flights, I only take them if I am flying elsewhere. With my employer based in the City it makes very little sense to fly to LHR either from BRU or from NCL. Eurostar and / or East Coast is the way forward for me when I have to work in London.

Last edited by Geordie405; Nov 27, 2014 at 7:04 am Reason: Spelling mistake
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Old Nov 27, 2014, 7:07 am
  #19  
 
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Originally Posted by layz
They also mention free WiFi, which is currently only free in First Class. This was attempted by National Express and only meant that the increased demand meant that the wifi was even more unusable than ever.
Don't forget that technology has moved on since those days. Both in terms of the bandwidth available, and the ability to throttle heavy users.

That, coupled with increasing use of passengers' own 3G & 4G connections might make it viable.

I seem to remember GNER was an early adopter of train wifi, which rather handicapped them and left them locked into outdated technology.
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Old Nov 27, 2014, 7:14 am
  #20  
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Originally Posted by mad_rich
Don't forget that technology has moved on since those days. Both in terms of the bandwidth available, and the ability to throttle heavy users.

That, coupled with increasing use of passengers' own 3G & 4G connections might make it viable.

I seem to remember GNER was an early adopter of train wifi, which rather handicapped them and left them locked into outdated technology.
GNER were the first with wifi, very handy as I used to use the excuse of leaving the office early on Friday as I could work on the train (even though you couldn't really do much online)

However, East Coast did a massive upgrade of their wifi earlier in the year and it's still not brilliant (I had better performance using the WiFi on an AA domestic flight), so I still worry that it may not cope with the demand.

I think the free WiFi is just a 'quick win' to say they're offering something that East Coast didn't.
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Old Nov 27, 2014, 7:19 am
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Have you tried using the Wifi in First Class on a busy train? I revert back to 3G/4G as its faster!
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Old Nov 27, 2014, 7:24 am
  #22  
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Originally Posted by Geordie405
Part of the issue with the last franchise owner was that their financial model was apparently based around significant penalty payments from Network Rail for infrastructure failings. As NR improved the reliability of the infrastructure on the EC these payments diminished - and the model fell apart.

In terms of NCL - LHR flights, I only take them if I am flying elsewhere. With my employer based in the City it makes very little sense to fly to LHR either from BRU or from NCL. Eurostar and / or East Coast is the way forward for me when I have to work in London.
Journey time NCL-LHR and NCL-KGX is about the same for me. If all was equal I'd take the train (in first class, which is a fair comparison as I'd always use Club Europe for a journey of that duration) but the BA lounges make up for the extra hassle involved in flying.

Longer journeys like Glasgow and Edinburgh the plane wins on time, so the on-board amenities on the train is what'd need to win me over (I use the train a lot less on the Anglo-Scottish routes since restaurant was abolished).

For Leeds: city centre - city centre there's no speed advantage to flying so you have to really like flying or live somewhere convenient of the airport. Same with Manchester but when I'm flying to MAN I'm not usually going to Manchester but driving south.
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Old Nov 27, 2014, 7:24 am
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Ahh, the spin of "new trains" was mentioned on the Reporting Scotland lunchtime edition.
Of course, this isn't reported properly, as it was happening anyway, no matter who won...

And no doubt this will lead to stories of S/VTEC's massive investment, when the reality is, it's the ROSCOs who are the ones actually shelling out for the new units.

Personally think it's the least worst option, the best of course being DOR actually continuing to run a very successful operation.
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Old Nov 27, 2014, 7:30 am
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Walk up fares on BA from MAN to LHR are more on the plane than train. On VS MAN to LHR it's cheaper on the plane then train.

EDI and GLA are far cheaper than MAN and NCL are at the moment.
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Old Nov 27, 2014, 7:35 am
  #25  
 
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I doubt that there's that much interplay between the pricing structures of the train and plane on most of those routes, but, as a semi-regular user of East Coast, it is worrying, and a bit baffling, that a service that has worked relatively well for the past five years is being dropped.

I also wonder why it is that the government is quite happy for the UK railway services to be state owned as long as that state is not the UK. Was there never a chance that Directly Operated Railways could grow and compete with the likes of Abellio, Deutche Bahn, and Keolis?
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Old Nov 27, 2014, 7:36 am
  #26  
 
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Originally Posted by TyneTraveller
Not so sure that any revenue traffic will be affected on the NCL-LHR as I think it's two separate markets, although hard to predict.

On a personal note, I liked East Coast (best service we've had since BR) and their little reward scheme; it's come in handy on many an occasion. I'm guessing the northerly commuting VS crew will be delighted though......can't see there being as many red uniforms spotted on the shuttles anymore!!
Are you sure the British Rail days were really as rosy as you remember? A lot of people are so influenced by wanting the train system to be public that they have false memories of how great it used to be!

While I'm not overly familiar with the East Coast route, as a whole, punctuality increased, frequency increased, passenger numbers boomed, better and cleaner trains were run and, though it seems the opposite, passenger satisfaction has been consistently higher than it was with British Rail. There were also large fare increases, something people seem to think only happened after privatisation.
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Old Nov 27, 2014, 7:49 am
  #27  
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Originally Posted by Jamier45
Have you tried using the Wifi in First Class on a busy train? I revert back to 3G/4G as its faster!
That reminds me. Didn't BA announce WiFi as part of the cabin refits? Shouldn't we have wifi (at least on domestic routes) in 2015 - it's more important on a plane as 3G/4G isn't an option. Although you can't get much work done in the air anyway.

As for on-train WiFi, there's a lot of mobile dead spots (which will vary depending on your network).

I'm not sure how on train WiFi works these days but according to the original GNER promotional materials it was a combination of satellite and 3G meaning that it should still work in mobile dead spots. They also claimed it'd work in tunnels but not sure how that works (except for short tunnels where one end of the train is still outside).

Originally Posted by BlueThroughCrimp
Ahh, the spin of "new trains" was mentioned on the Reporting Scotland lunchtime edition.
Of course, this isn't reported properly, as it was happening anyway, no matter who won...

And no doubt this will lead to stories of S/VTEC's massive investment, when the reality is, it's the ROSCOs who are the ones actually shelling out for the new units.

Personally think it's the least worst option, the best of course being DOR actually continuing to run a very successful operation.
New operators always get credit for new trains, not sure if it's lazy reporting or just wanting to keep things simple.

Of course keeping the services public would have been low risk (government gets all the profits and no risk of having to bail anyone out) and the services were already highly rated. The arms length management of East Coast meant it ran like a private company but the shareholder being the government.

Originally Posted by paulwuk
Walk up fares on BA from MAN to LHR are more on the plane than train. On VS MAN to LHR it's cheaper on the plane then train.

EDI and GLA are far cheaper than MAN and NCL are at the moment.
Actually walk up fares can be cheaper on the plane. Advance purchase fares on the trains aren't available on the day of travel (so you're left with the full price options). When flying I can often book a discounted ticket for travel on the day if the flight isn't too busy and a number of times I've even redeemed Avios for a same day flight.

Another option on BA is booking those 'semi-flex' fares (the ones that are entirely free to change on day of travel) a few days before you're travelling if you know the date but not 100% sure of the time. You can't do that with cheap train fares.
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Old Nov 27, 2014, 7:53 am
  #28  
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Nectar points? What an absurdity.

From: http://www.dca-design.com/images/con...s2014_Sept.pdf

Those seats don't look so comfortable in F, but let's see how they pan out. No mention of recline, not that the present sliding seat base is particularly great.

From the outset the operators wanted extremely strong visual differentiation between first and standard class, to encourage passengers to upgrade. First-class passengers will all have tables, and the seats will be bigger, deeper and have a greater pitch. The dominant color [sic] will be a dark gray [sic] with head cushions in purple.
The designers describe the effect they were going for as “modern Pullman” – that is, an updated version of the luxury offered by Pullman trains. Luxury automobiles were another influence. Apparently, first-class passengers have grown so accustomed to the décor of their automobiles that they like the transition from road to rail transport to be aesthetically seamless.
As usual there seems to be a downward push in quality. "An updated version of the luxury offered by Pullman trains"? F having tables with slightly bigger seats is not an impressive statement. What little else could the F cabin have to distinguish it from Standard? Frankly the picture of the F cabin on the front of the article is an embarrassment.

Innovative new mobile app that allows customers to order a meal at their seat before or during their journey
A return of meals is a plus ^ But I'll believe it when I see it.

On the BA side, London to Edinburgh in four hours is starting to be competitive with air, I think, at least on the LHR-EDI route.

Last edited by Calchas; Nov 27, 2014 at 8:00 am
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Old Nov 27, 2014, 7:58 am
  #29  
 
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Originally Posted by callum9999
Are you sure the British Rail days were really as rosy as you remember? A lot of people are so influenced by wanting the train system to be public that they have false memories of how great it used to be!

While I'm not overly familiar with the East Coast route, as a whole, punctuality increased, frequency increased, passenger numbers boomed, better and cleaner trains were run and, though it seems the opposite, passenger satisfaction has been consistently higher than it was with British Rail. There were also large fare increases, something people seem to think only happened after privatisation.
BR received a fraction of what the current industry does, the electrification of the East Coast mainline on the cheap shows, but BR wasn't allowed to invest in it properly.
InterCity made a profit.

Frequency has increased as stock is being worked harder, and assets sweated. That's all very well until something goes wrong, and as such, things like Virgin Cross Country's Operation Princess was a disaster.
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Old Nov 27, 2014, 8:01 am
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Originally Posted by layz
New operators always get credit for new trains, not sure if it's lazy reporting or just wanting to keep things simple.
Lazy reporting, yes. Keeping things simple? I have my doubts. It's out and out spin.
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