2x1 is back!, But now with more miles!
Oct 8, 2015, 6:34 pm
#137
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Melbourne, Australia
Programs: VA WP, NZ *A SG
Posts: 529
No F out of ICN unless you can swing ICN-NRT (OZ F) NRT-BKK (TG F) and I doubt the connection times would work out?
OZ flies J to every one of those destinations and TG fly ICN-HKG and ICN-BKK and NH flies ICN-TYO.
OZ flies J to every one of those destinations and TG fly ICN-HKG and ICN-BKK and NH flies ICN-TYO.
Oct 8, 2015, 6:52 pm
#138
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Melbourne, Australia
Programs: VA WP, NZ *A SG
Posts: 529
If you want to buy AS/AA miles, it can usually be bought for less than the cpm you stated. The important thing is not to pounce on every supposed sale that AA offers, some are better than others, just like Lifemiles. Even if you manage to connect intra-Asia as you stated, which is highly difficult to do to the point that it is not practical in most cases, your scenario still does not account for intra-North America travel outside of hubs. So yes, on paper AV only costs about 30% more but in reality, you will almost always end up under-estimating its actual cost whether in $ or time due to the need to break up the award into 2 or 3 separate reservations at either end.
Another thing that is worth mentioning is the apparent urgency for liquidity that Lifemiles is signaling. We had this "sales" last month, then it was extended to something even sweeter in October via Insideflyer which was supposed to last only 24 hours, now it's a whole week. I'd be questioning why Lifemiles seems so desperate for cash... Does it have liquidity problem? It wouldn't be the first time a small FPP goes bust so this is making me a little uncomfortable I must say, their behavior just strikes me as a little desperate. Or it could be as someone else suggested, which I don't have any info on, is that Lifemiles was sold to a Private Equity entity and they are trying to turn this into a cash cow by imposing the various limitations we hate such as no mixed class, no LH F, no stopover and etc. so that the vast majority of people will over-value the worth of AV miles based on the information on paper.
What seems like a great deal at 1.5cpm on paper may in fact worth a lot less than that. I see that most people here on FT are unable to account properly for these restrictions in their valuation so perhaps the information provided by soy deserve a closer review.
One of the biggest fallacy of looking at miles is to compare their absolute value then conclude: "Oh, this program is 30% more expensive because a similar award is 99000 miles here but only 67500 miles there." No, you should never do that - not all miles are created equal and this is definitely the case with respect to Lifemiles. Even if you use a cost base approach like you just did by comparing the cost of acquiring AA/AS miles directly vs. that of Lifemiles, such approach is still flawed because it failed to account for the major differences in usage between these programs. I have to say if what we are seeing of Lifemiles is indeed the work of a Private Equity, I have to congratulate them on their smart because they have really reshaped this FFP into a cash cow such that a large number of experienced flyers can be incited into buying something that is over-valued.
Another thing that is worth mentioning is the apparent urgency for liquidity that Lifemiles is signaling. We had this "sales" last month, then it was extended to something even sweeter in October via Insideflyer which was supposed to last only 24 hours, now it's a whole week. I'd be questioning why Lifemiles seems so desperate for cash... Does it have liquidity problem? It wouldn't be the first time a small FPP goes bust so this is making me a little uncomfortable I must say, their behavior just strikes me as a little desperate. Or it could be as someone else suggested, which I don't have any info on, is that Lifemiles was sold to a Private Equity entity and they are trying to turn this into a cash cow by imposing the various limitations we hate such as no mixed class, no LH F, no stopover and etc. so that the vast majority of people will over-value the worth of AV miles based on the information on paper.
What seems like a great deal at 1.5cpm on paper may in fact worth a lot less than that. I see that most people here on FT are unable to account properly for these restrictions in their valuation so perhaps the information provided by soy deserve a closer review.
One of the biggest fallacy of looking at miles is to compare their absolute value then conclude: "Oh, this program is 30% more expensive because a similar award is 99000 miles here but only 67500 miles there." No, you should never do that - not all miles are created equal and this is definitely the case with respect to Lifemiles. Even if you use a cost base approach like you just did by comparing the cost of acquiring AA/AS miles directly vs. that of Lifemiles, such approach is still flawed because it failed to account for the major differences in usage between these programs. I have to say if what we are seeing of Lifemiles is indeed the work of a Private Equity, I have to congratulate them on their smart because they have really reshaped this FFP into a cash cow such that a large number of experienced flyers can be incited into buying something that is over-valued.
I only ever consider LMs for simple itnieraries, and I know the sweet spots to both get the best value and where the availability is likely to be. For once we are lucky in Australia as many of the sweet spots are for itineraries originating in Australia.
I'll continue this approach that LMs is what it is, but could and may well change at any time. I dont buy into the whole 'well LMs are worth this much and I can save this much by doing x and y'. I know what I'm willing to pay to go award J or F vs rev Y and where the exchange rate, mileage sale bonus etc line up I'm usually happy to pay that premium. I could probably squeeze slightly more value out of it if I was a bit more hardcore but I'm happy with what it offers me.
It is what it is and will never be exactly what we want it to be.
Oct 9, 2015, 3:09 am
#140
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 93
CNX time would work but it seems no seats released 05/16
Oct 9, 2015, 6:54 am
#141
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: YYZ
Programs: A3&O6 Gold,IC AMB & HH Diamond
Posts: 14,132
Oct 9, 2015, 12:23 pm
#142
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: SEA, but up and down the coast a lot
Programs: Oceanic Airlines Gold Elite
Posts: 20,384
You can actually buy them cheaper if you buy miles in conjunction with purchase of AS tickets (at 2 cpm), but that means you have to actually buy and not refund the ticket (or AS reserves the right to charge you extra).
Also, I haven't seen AA mileage sales at under 2 cpm.
http://onemileatatime.boardingarea.c...-june-12-2015/
Note this post lists prices:
In early May 2015 AAdvantage sold miles for as little as ~2.09 cents each
In April 2015 AAdvantage sold miles for as little as ~2.0 cents each
In February 2015 AAdvantage sold miles for as little as ~2.07 cents each
In January 2015 AAdvantage sold miles for as little as ~2.14 cents each
In November/December 2014 AAdvantage sold miles for as little as ~2.06 cents each
In April 2015 AAdvantage sold miles for as little as ~2.0 cents each
In February 2015 AAdvantage sold miles for as little as ~2.07 cents each
In January 2015 AAdvantage sold miles for as little as ~2.14 cents each
In November/December 2014 AAdvantage sold miles for as little as ~2.06 cents each
Feel free to show me where you can get AA/AS miles at less than 2.0 cpm. I'm keen to learn these things.
Anyways...
We are in violent agreement as far as the relative worth of AS/AA/AV are as mileage purchasing programs to reduce the cost of flying in premium cabins. I am not inclined to use AV for more than connecting Point A with Point B, or to build up a huge balance in the program given past history and the problems with the program, and I didn't go into the Inside Flyer bonus (because that's a $3000+ USD investment; if I was buying that many miles I'd probably go with AS). The nuisance factor of changing an AV award alone is enough to make me gunshy.
Last edited by eponymous_coward; Oct 9, 2015 at 12:31 pm
Oct 9, 2015, 5:22 pm
#143
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: YYC, SFO, OAK
Programs: AS MVP 75K, AA Platinum, IHG Platinum, Club Carlson Gold
Posts: 734
You've seen AS/AA under 2 cpm? It's been between 2.1-2.2 cpm pretty consistently for years.
You can actually buy them cheaper if you buy miles in conjunction with purchase of AS tickets (at 2 cpm), but that means you have to actually buy and not refund the ticket (or AS reserves the right to charge you extra).
Also, I haven't seen AA mileage sales at under 2 cpm.
http://onemileatatime.boardingarea.c...-june-12-2015/
Note this post lists prices:
So I feel pretty good saying "2-2.2 cpm".
Feel free to show me where you can get AA/AS miles at less than 2.0 cpm. I'm keen to learn these things.
Anyways...
This is mostly my point, restated a bit differently. I think that although the raw cpm for buying AS/AA is larger, the fact that AV has higher minimums and worse routing rules neutralizes this (AS's one-way stopovers are a big advantage for getting value; if done right you basically get a free one-way tagged on to any trip if you don't want the en-route stopover, and both AS and AA are better for routing and lesser pricing of awards than AV, though AA has some weird rules that can get in the way of good value sometimes).
We are in violent agreement as far as the relative worth of AS/AA/AV are as mileage purchasing programs to reduce the cost of flying in premium cabins. I am not inclined to use AV for more than connecting Point A with Point B, or to build up a huge balance in the program given past history and the problems with the program, and I didn't go into the Inside Flyer bonus (because that's a $3000+ USD investment; if I was buying that many miles I'd probably go with AS). The nuisance factor of changing an AV award alone is enough to make me gunshy.
You can actually buy them cheaper if you buy miles in conjunction with purchase of AS tickets (at 2 cpm), but that means you have to actually buy and not refund the ticket (or AS reserves the right to charge you extra).
Also, I haven't seen AA mileage sales at under 2 cpm.
http://onemileatatime.boardingarea.c...-june-12-2015/
Note this post lists prices:
So I feel pretty good saying "2-2.2 cpm".
Feel free to show me where you can get AA/AS miles at less than 2.0 cpm. I'm keen to learn these things.
Anyways...
This is mostly my point, restated a bit differently. I think that although the raw cpm for buying AS/AA is larger, the fact that AV has higher minimums and worse routing rules neutralizes this (AS's one-way stopovers are a big advantage for getting value; if done right you basically get a free one-way tagged on to any trip if you don't want the en-route stopover, and both AS and AA are better for routing and lesser pricing of awards than AV, though AA has some weird rules that can get in the way of good value sometimes).
We are in violent agreement as far as the relative worth of AS/AA/AV are as mileage purchasing programs to reduce the cost of flying in premium cabins. I am not inclined to use AV for more than connecting Point A with Point B, or to build up a huge balance in the program given past history and the problems with the program, and I didn't go into the Inside Flyer bonus (because that's a $3000+ USD investment; if I was buying that many miles I'd probably go with AS). The nuisance factor of changing an AV award alone is enough to make me gunshy.
Also, in 2/2014 AA sold miles for a 30% bonus when you bought 60K, and it priced out at 1.98cpm. An even better deal was in 11/2014 when you bought 80K and got 45K bonus, bringing the cost to 1.88cpm, and you could choose between buying US or AA miles at that price.
Oct 9, 2015, 5:29 pm
#144
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: YYC, SFO, OAK
Programs: AS MVP 75K, AA Platinum, IHG Platinum, Club Carlson Gold
Posts: 734
Then again, now that you mention the AA/AS sales, I have to say I've never even considered buying AA/AS miles even at 1.88 or 1.97 cpm, yet Lifemiles at 1.32cpm seem like a decent deal, despite the fact that their awards cost 1/3 more and connections are problematic.
I love *O but a big issue is that AA/AS's strength in Asia largely hinges on CX, and the moment CX starts talking about restricting partner award availability everyone panics, and for good reason.
If AV has any advantages, it's that *A has a generally stronger network in Asia, Europe and Africa, and less dependent on a few linchpin airlines like CX
I love *O but a big issue is that AA/AS's strength in Asia largely hinges on CX, and the moment CX starts talking about restricting partner award availability everyone panics, and for good reason.
If AV has any advantages, it's that *A has a generally stronger network in Asia, Europe and Africa, and less dependent on a few linchpin airlines like CX
Oct 12, 2015, 4:10 pm
#145
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: SEA, but up and down the coast a lot
Programs: Oceanic Airlines Gold Elite
Posts: 20,384
Actually, AS miles were 1.97cpm in 6/2015 when there was a 50% bonus for buying 40K.
Also, in 2/2014 AA sold miles for a 30% bonus when you bought 60K, and it priced out at 1.98cpm. An even better deal was in 11/2014 when you bought 80K and got 45K bonus, bringing the cost to 1.88cpm, and you could choose between buying US or AA miles at that price.
Also, in 2/2014 AA sold miles for a 30% bonus when you bought 60K, and it priced out at 1.98cpm. An even better deal was in 11/2014 when you bought 80K and got 45K bonus, bringing the cost to 1.88cpm, and you could choose between buying US or AA miles at that price.
I can remember buying US miles at 1.2 cpm in 2010. I don't think that will be happening again anytime soon.
As for worrying about CX cutting off partner access because of AA/AS "maximizers"... you do realize that AV got cut off from LH F for pretty much the same reason, a bunch of FT "maximizers" hitting LH F hard with cheap AV redemptions...
Oct 12, 2015, 4:53 pm
#146
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: YYC, SFO, OAK
Programs: AS MVP 75K, AA Platinum, IHG Platinum, Club Carlson Gold
Posts: 734
Yes, I realize AV got cut off of LH F, just as US did a few years ago. Then again, US regularly sold miles at 1.1cpm until mid-2014 thru their "share miles" promos and LH probably didn't want their F cabin filling up with US "frequent flyers" who bought the miles for less than the cost of a coach ticket.
Oct 12, 2015, 8:28 pm
#147
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: SEA, but up and down the coast a lot
Programs: Oceanic Airlines Gold Elite
Posts: 20,384
Well, that's what I'm saying... CX could well decide one day they're gonna cut off AA/AS redemptions and that would significantly weaken the value proposition of AA/AS miles as CX is the main Asian partner of both programs, and provides an amazing product at a great price.
Also...
CX F/J redemptions on AS are likely a rounding error on that chart. Important, but small.
That means only ~1.4% of Alaska miles are redeemed for first or business class travel on partner airlines other than American and Delta.
Last edited by eponymous_coward; Oct 12, 2015 at 8:33 pm
Oct 12, 2015, 9:34 pm
#148
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: YYC, SFO, OAK
Programs: AS MVP 75K, AA Platinum, IHG Platinum, Club Carlson Gold
Posts: 734
That chart isn't clear on whether it's showing # of trips or # of miles redeemed. Because if it's trips, we need to remember international trips can cost up to 8x as many miles as domestic ones.
What that chart also obscures is that most miles (probably) aren't directly bought by end customers, and that when airlines look to sell miles a la Avianca, many buyers are people in the FF community who value them and know how to spend them. So they cater to us because we're an important source of revenue and we punch far above our weight in numbers.
I'd venture a guess that those of us buying thousands of dollars in AA/AS/AV miles every year are doing so primarily for international premium cabin flights, and generally don't want to fly domestic carriers like AA or DL (seriously??) if we can have CX for the same price. KE? Sure, if you don't get a migraine looking at their blackout dates. Not to mention KE and DL require round trip bookings.
Yes, EK is a major partner for AS and I'm not discounting them (having gleefully booked myself an EK F redemption). But EK is 50% more expensive than CX to get to Asia, and personally I prefer HKG as a stop vs DXB, but to each his/her/their own.
Oct 13, 2015, 2:26 pm
#149
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 3,165
I'm not so sure about that. JL is a thing for AA. So are DL, EK HU and KE, all of whom provide significant Asia coverage.
Also...
CX F/J redemptions on AS are likely a rounding error on that chart. Important, but small.
I wonder what a similar chart for Lifemiles would look like...
Also...
CX F/J redemptions on AS are likely a rounding error on that chart. Important, but small.
I wonder what a similar chart for Lifemiles would look like...