Eastbay1K

:-::-::-:Argentina:-::-::-:*

*Al menos no somos Islandia
(At least we're not Iceland)

Perhaps some from Argentina will go and give seminars on "What happens if my currency is worthless when I wake up" and similar related very unhappy topics.

I'm not making light of the terrible situation in Iceland, but can't help thinking that Argentinos are saying "glad it wasn't us" today.

SoFlyOn

And I'm sure I can speak for Cristina, in thanking you for your impending investment!

John

Gaucho100K

Folks.... as an Argentine who knows many people that had their $$$ messed with... this aint no laughing topic. Dont get me wrong... I love acid humour and rough-edged jokes, but this is perhaps a little tooo sensitive a subject to mess around with. Only an idiot like Kristina K comes up with the "Jazz Efect" comment when the US is hit by the financial crisis... so I have to say that in the same line the above laughs (though Im sure they are not ill-intended) are a little toooo much, at least IMHO.

In closing... the black market FX rate for the USD here in Argentina is now over AR$3.60 to the dollar, so things are not exactly looking great down here either. Even if the Argentine financial system is not at all overleveraged, the worldwide economic recession that is here and will stay around for a while is going to hit hard in 2009. Im afraid there is little to party or joke about.

YVR Cockroach

The rise of the USD is apparently due to commodity speculators unwinding their positions and pretty much having to "buy" USD when selling their holdings, thus driving up the USD. Argentina of course doesn't benefit as an exported of grain, soya beans and beef.

When sanity returns to the markets, they'll once again focus on the fundementals of why the USD has sunk in the past 5 years, and this time with about $5-6 extra trillion in debt. includes assumption of FNMA and Freddie Mac debts[/SIZE]

See: http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/10/news...ion=2008101014

Gaucho100K

Its not only the closing of financial positions... there has been plenty of retail demand for USD over the past 2-3 weeks... you can see the lines outside banks and exchange bureaus all over the city.

SoFlyOn

I was actually surprised that when the BCRA drove the exchange rate down to just above 3, that more folks didn't convert their pesos into dollars, since it was obvious (at least to me) that those levels couldn't last for long given the inflation problems.

John

YVR Cockroach

Classic safe haven belief behaviour?

FWIW, some other commodity-exporting currencies have really suffered. The CAD was selling for as high as USD 0.97 early last week before dropping to 0.83 today. AUD was as close as 1.03 per CAD 2 months ago and has dropped to 1.32 (or USD 0.63).

Eastbay1K

Believe me, I'm not making light of the situation. But I couldn't help but think that for one day, the poor folks in Argentina that have been through hell were grateful that it wasn't them on that particular day. As I'm about to sink a fair sum of money into the Argentina economy, I am not particularly thrilled about the current state of affairs. I also wonder how artificially propped up the AR$ is right now given that Chile and Brasil have fallen precipitously in the past few weeks (30%+) and Argentina, less than 10%.

Un abrazo

YVR Cockroach

Was it propped up by central bank intervention (costly to foreign reserves) or high interest rates? If it was neither, maybe the ARS's fundementals aren't too bad.

SoFlyOn

The BCRA (Central Bank) intervened again today selling dollars to halt the decline in the peso.

http://www.lanacion.com.ar/nota.asp?...96836&toi=6256

John

SoFlyOn

The Efecto Jazz comment was so bizarre as to be comical. Maybe if she'd have stuck with Efecto Mariposa, she'd have been more on point!

Anyway, perhaps we should nickname her Jazztina, although I usually refer to her as Agrotina myself

John