Midwest Airlines Midwest Miles - YX Resumes STL

Well we all kinda saw this coming.

Resumes March 1st, 3 flights/day on E135s

Interesting that they came out with just one route announcement. I was expecting some kind of blockbuster news conference announcing a whole series of planned route restorations. Perhaps they think they might get more positive press be announcing them one at a time every day or so?

So how long until FL drops its MKE-STL service? AA is already on the route, too, and it's definitely too small a market for three carriers. The FL competition is making for very low fares right now, though. $39 each way most of the time.

Well we all kinda saw this coming.

Resumes March 1st, 3 flights/day on E135s

While it's good to see STL come back, why is Midwest announcing the resumption of the route more than six months in advance??? They're giving the competition plenty of time to react (such as American and/or AirTran dropping the route to Southwest adding service).

The MKE-STL flight times could really be improved a great deal as well. That late evening flight will probably fly pretty empty (the aircraft is no doubt going to STL for aircraft maintenance).

Well we all kinda saw this coming.

Resumes March 1st, 3 flights/day on E135s

http://www.midwestairlines.com/AboutUs/CompanyNews/MKE-STL-Nonstop_091609.aspx

Interesting that they came out with just one route announcement. I was expecting some kind of blockbuster news conference announcing a whole series of planned route restorations. Perhaps they think they might get more positive press be announcing them one at a time every day or so?

I would guess they want to spread it out a little bit.

While it's good to see STL come back, why is Midwest announcing the resumption of the route more than six months in advance???

My thoughts as well. Why not start sooner, such as Dec 19th to be able to connect to F9's CUN flights. As it stands they only have about a month of connections available.

Patience is a virtue, as Mom always said. I can assure you more will be coming soon...probably in the next week to ten days from what I'm told.

Back to MKE-STL. Normally it's not good to announce a new route too far in advance because it gives competitors a lot of time to respond. But this is sort of a reverse scenario for a few key reasons:

(a) AA continues to downsize St Louis, with MKE-STL dropping from 3x to 2x shortly before Thanksgiving. If AA (as rumored) announces further STL cutbacks where most point-to-point flying goes, Midwest has a placeholder in the market even though it's not starting 'til March.

(b) From all appearances MKE-STL isn't doing very well for AirTran, and didn't even during the summer peak. Winter will almost assuredly bite for them on that city pair should they decide to keep it, and come the normally-improved traffic of March, there will be more competition to take the bloom off the route at the point when it might start to improve for the season.

If AA* ends up dropping MKE-STL, that may be incentive for AirTran to keep it up even if it is not responding well. If AirTran is considering dropping MKE-STL, knowing that Midwest is going to come in to the market and stunt traffic could also influence their decision. And of course there's always the Southwest wildcard. If either airline drops MKE-STL it might be something WN looks at, but knowing YX* is coming back may influence that decision.

So I think Midwest is being very deliberate in announcing MKE-STL so far out. They're making sure that decisions are made with the full knowledge of others than YX is coming back to the market.

Why, then not start MKE-STL sooner?

I think it comes down to airplanes. They can't add MKE-STl without more aircraft. There are probably 4-6 Airbus coming in the next few months, and each aircraft brings the ability to add flights or increase frequency. (Of course the Airbus won't fly MKE-STL, but it can fly MKE-LAX which frees up E190 for MKE-DCA which frees up E170 for MKE-PHL which frees up RJ for St Louis, for example.) So each Airbus that comes brings with it expansion. Expansion to where? Fort Lauderdale? More Orlando? More Phoenix? More Tampa? San Franciso? Seattle? More Fort Myers? St Louis?

I think that it's pretty clear that the early expansion funded by the Airbus should and will be markets like the west and Florida. Adding Fort Lauderdale in December and St Louis in March makes a lot more sense than the other way aound.

So...while I agree it seems weird to have STL announced so far out, I do think that it makes sense. There's not much to be gained by keeping it a secret since it's not likely that anybody is going to purposely pile on MKE-STL service to head Midwest off at the pass. It's already overserved with full-sized aircraft + RJ's, so if anything they are looking for other airlines to consider now what their market share will be when Midwest returns. I'm not saying that Midwest will be full and FL or AA will be empty, of course. Certainly not. But when a market is marginal at best and likely a bit worse, having more passengers skimmed by a competitor is not a good thing.

(a) AA continues to downsize St Louis, with MKE-STL dropping from 3x to 2x shortly before Thanksgiving. If AA (as rumored) announces further STL cutbacks where most point-to-point flying goes, Midwest has a placeholder in the market even though it's not starting 'til March.



As expected, American is closing the STL hub and will cut almost all of the non-hub/focus city flying. The MKE-STL route will be axed.

http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/business/stories.nsf/story/69F9C407D3E421E58625763400081B09?OpenDocument

The question now is does AirTran keep flying empty planes on the route or do they bail as well?

With the reductions in STL and RDU, there might be some good opportunities in both STL and RDU to take advantage of. Given that a Republic subsidiary does much of the Eagle flying in STL, more planes might be available for Midwest branded flying outside of MKE. Specific mention was made of doing this very thing during the Midwest DO this past June.

>>>>>

As expected, American is closing the STL hub and will cut almost all of the non-hub/focus city flying. The MKE-STL route will be axed.

http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/business/stories.nsf/story/69F9C407D3E421E58625763400081B09?OpenDocument

The question now is does AirTran keep flying empty planes on the route or do they bail as well?

With the reductions in STL and RDU, there might be some good opportunities in both STL and RDU to take advantage of. Given that a Republic subsidiary does much of the Eagle flying in STL, more planes might be available for Midwest branded flying outside of MKE. Specific mention was made of doing this very thing during the Midwest DO this past June.

I could see YX/RAH doing some P2P flying from STL, RDU and IND in the future. With the right mix of aircraft they should be able to make some inroads in other markets. I see on Wikipedia that Republic has an order in for 20 - E190's. I know Wiki can be wrong at times... but I did see somewhere in print that Republic has an order in for 20 E190's with an option for 20 more if they want them. I can't find the article anymore. :(