Midwest Airlines Midwest Miles - YX MKE Market share slips to 34.2%

This article is about AirTran mainly but it shows how Midwest's share has eroded at MKE. Bryan has a lot of work to do.

http://milwaukee.bizjournals.com/milwaukee/stories/2009/08/24/story2.html?b=1251086400^1968341

Oak Creek-based Midwest Airlines, long the dominant air carrier in the Milwaukee market, saw its market share slip to 34.2 percent in June, down from 37.5 percent in May. The figures for Midwest include regional carrier Midwest Connect.

This article is about AirTran mainly but it shows how Midwest's share has eroded at MKE. Bryan has a lot of work to do.[/URL]

I had cut back on posting some of the detailed MKE-related stuff because I was getting the impression people were not interested in it, or that I was suggesting drawing too many conclusions with it.

The one-month change from 37.5% to 34.2% (May to June) is accurate. However it is all due to AirTran's large expansion of its connecting hub complex in Milwaukee, not due to Midwest's traffic slipping.

May vesus June 2009.

Midwest
231,938 passengers in May
242,925 passengers in June

10,987 more passengers carried in June over May
+4.7 increase in traffic

AirTran
123.917 passengers in May
172,601 passengers in June

48,648 more passengers carried in June over May
+39.3% increase in traffic

Until Midwest adds flights, they are relatively close to capacity. And their schedule is relatively constant through the year. So their market share at the airport will vary based on the activity and the loads of other airlines. I don't mean that every YX/YX* plane is booked 100% full, but realistically, beyond the normal seasonal ups and downs every airline sees, Midwest's market share isn't going to change much based on how well or how poorly they fill their own planes. It will primarily go up and down based on the activity of other airlines.

If you hold everything else constant, the entry of Southwest later this fall will reduce everyone's market share, including Midwest's starting in November. We all know things don't remain constant, of course. And perhaps by then AirTran, or Delta, or someone else will add or curtail flights. Perhaps by then Midwest will have Airbus coming to the fleet. But until Midwest expands their flying, their market share at MKE will primarily be determined by the level of service other airlines offer.

I had cut back on posting some of the detailed MKE-related stuff because I was getting the impression people were not interested in it, or that I was suggesting drawing too many conclusions with it.



knope, your posts and detailed analysis are always very much appreciated by most on this board. Keep up the great work!

I mentioned this in the AirTran forum, but

What if Republic decides to sell to AirTran? All those gates in Concourse D would give them plenty of room for those 50-80 flights per day.

I mentioned this in the AirTran forum, but

What if Republic decides to sell to AirTran? All those gates in Concourse D would give them plenty of room for those 50-80 flights per day.

I suppose now Midwest is worth a lot more because they have valuable gate space at MKE and they have a real holding company comitted to growing the airline.