JetBlue TrueBlue - May numbers reported

And they don't look good.... :(

Bolding below is mine.

NEW YORK, June 2 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- JetBlue Airways Corporation (Nasdaq: JBLU) reported today that its traffic in May decreased 3.3 percent from May 2008, on a capacity decrease of 1.1 percent.

Load factor for May 2009 was 77.4 percent, a decrease of 1.8 points from May 2008. JetBlue's preliminary completion factor was 99.7 percent and its on-time (1) performance was 77.3 percent. JetBlue's preliminary passenger revenue per available seat mile for the month of May decreased ten percent year over year.


JETBLUE AIRWAYS TRAFFIC RESULTS

May 2009 May 2008 % Change
Revenue passenger miles (000) 2,095,245 2,167,648 (3.3)%
Available seat miles (000) 2,706,665 2,736,173 (1.1)%
Load factor 77.4% 79.2% (1.8) pts.
Revenue passengers 1,829,301 1,802,208 1.5 %
Departures 18,126 17,070 6.2 %
Average stage length 1,060 1,139 (6.9)%

Y-T-D 2009 Y-T-D 2008 % Change
Revenue passenger miles (000) 10,357,741 11,014,525 (6.0)%
Available seat miles (000) 13,406,200 14,003,460 (4.3)%
Load factor 77.3% 78.7% (1.4) pts.
Revenue passengers 9,074,459 9,258,602 (2.0)%
Departures 89,476 87,357 2.4 %
Average stage length 1,064 1,132 (6.0)%

(1) The U.S. Department of Transportation considers on-time arrivals to be
those domestic flights arriving within 14 minutes of schedule.


Seeing the LF hold reasonably steady is good but a 10% drop in PRASM is going to hurt. Last month they actually increased PRASM over 2008. And May included the Memorial Day holiday, typically a higher fare time of year.

Given that CO's RASM decreased by 20% which got their stock an upgrade, being only down 10% is quite good--particularly as B6 only dropped capacity by 1.1% as opposed to nearly 10% by CO. The legacy carriers will be harder hit this quarter with rising fuel costs and continued weak demand for both passengers and cargo to Europe/MEX/Asia.

This decrease can be attributed almost solely to the economic crisis, and yes, it is affecting legacies, with their reliance on premium class fares, to a much greater extent than single-class carriers such as B6...

JetBlue's preliminary passenger revenue per available seat mile for the month of May decreased ten percent year over year.But how does it look on the cost side? Aren't fuel prices down around 50% from a year ago?

And they don't look good.... :(

Seeing the LF hold reasonably steady is good but a 10% drop in PRASM is going to hurt. Last month they actually increased PRASM over 2008. And May included the Memorial Day holiday, typically a higher fare time of year.

I think your opinion is off. April included the Easter holiday this year which accounted for the increase. May always includes Memorial Day, so that is not a factor.

The numbers are very good compared to CO.

I think your opinion is off. April included the Easter holiday this year which accounted for the increase. May always includes Memorial Day, so that is not a factor.

The numbers are very good compared to CO.

What do Easter or April have to do with anything? The drop is against last May, not against the previous month.

And I understand that May always has Memorial Day. But it is a holiday and generally drives higher revenues. They apparently didn't get that bump this year so the YoY numbers don't look so good. As far as operating costs YoY, those numbers aren't included in the report so it is hard to know. The good news is that fuel prices haven't really started to spike this year yet (and we're not at 50% of last year right now I don't think), but I don't think that kicked in last year until June so I don't know that the cost numbers are going to be all that much lower on that front.

CO's don't look good either. The $30MM hit they took from H1N1 certainly doesn't help things there, though that is likely only a fraction of a percentage point in their numbers (they, too, didn't release cost specifics in their announcement).

Seeing the LF hold reasonably steady is good but a 10% drop in PRASM is going to hurt. Last month they actually increased PRASM over 2008.

April included the Easter holiday this year which accounted for the increase.


What do Easter or April have to do with anything?

Why did you bring it up then? Were you not trying to use it as proof that things have deteriorated?


And I understand that May always has Memorial Day. But it is a holiday and generally drives higher revenues. They apparently didn't get that bump this year so the YoY numbers don't look so good.

There is no way to tell how Memorial Day did. It might have actually been better, the data doesn't show it one way or the other.