JetBlue TrueBlue - WN to BOS - What that mean for B6?

Southwest is going to be coming to Logan (http://www.southwest.com/about_swa/press/prindex.html) in the fall. I know its been mentioned the B6 is looking to double the size of their operations at BOS. With WN coming to Beantown, does this change/effect their planes? If so, how?

I don't see a major change. WN can have either the gates in E that NW will vacate, only 1 baggage claim available to them. Or there is the old FL D gates. Those 4 gates are in the old D area and don't have a baggage claim if I am remembering correctly. I think FL had to lease a baggage claim from us for their bags. Either way WN said they want to start with some small numbers. They start with flights to their main cities (MDW, BWI, BNA, MCO, LAS? PHX?) Most of those cities offer some indirect competition.

WN has said that they are going to start relatively small - only 2 gates. But with B6 and DL/NW now pretty much sharing the top carrier status at BOS there are definitely potential competition and market share issues to consider. A lot will depend on where WN decides to fly to from BOS, but I can see potential for yields dropping and a much more competitive environment in BOS (http://www.wanderingaramean.com/2009/02/boston-really-joins-southwest-family.html) with WN showing up. Then again, most of jetBlue's growth these days seems to be in the Caribbean and Southwest won't touch that, so perhaps nothing to worry about at all.

most of jetBlue's growth these days seems to be in the Caribbean and Southwest won't touch that

I expect Southwest to fly to the Caribbean in 2 to 3 years, possibly via a partnership but probably on their own. Southwest has been modifying its computer systems to handle international service, and that's just about done.

Southwest has no need or desire to go head to head with JetBlue. For the most part, Southwest will go after another airline only when that airline is clearly on the way out of a market and it's only a matter of when.

Southwest has no need or desire to go head to head with JetBlue. For the most part, Southwest will go after another airline only when that airline is clearly on the way out of a market and it's only a matter of when.

I think this is what we'll see. I don't think Southwest is going to pose any kind of threat to B6, at least not for quite some time. Service will start up slowly, and I expect for a while they're going to try to build up a relationship with BOS travelers (as opposed to, say, MHT or PVD folks). Granted, they have a strong presence in MDW; but the BOS-ORD route is served by AA, UA, and B6 (not to mention FL's on-again-off-again presence on BOS-MDW), so there's nothing 'new' here. If Southwest can successfully convince BOS-based travelers that MDW is better suited for their needs, it could take off, but it's too early to tell.

Same for BWI. FL and DL run BOS-BWI. DL, AA, and US run BOS-DCA; B6 and UA on BOS-IAD. Southwest isn't likely to try to pick a fight with anyone at BOS, at least not for a good long while. A "conservative, 2 gate operation" is exactly what they need to get their foot in the door and position themselves in the market before going head to head with any one (let alone multiple) carriers.

So really, I don't see Southwest making a dent at this point -- nor do I think that's their ultimate intention in the market.

The PIT-BOS market may be the most vulnerable from B6's perspective should WN choose to serve PIT-BOS with any amount of frequency (like 4x daily). B6 is currently serving BOS 1x daily (winter) and 2x daily (summer) from PIT.

The PIT-BOS market is ~750pax per day. Market share is US 65% (avg fare $178) B6 30% share (avg fare $140). WN's average fare for similar distances will probably be closer to $100.

What will hurt B6 in PIT is that they only serve BOS & JFK from PIT -- no other destinations. At least in BUF (which may be vulnerable to WN service as well) B6 serves Florida destinations.

On the other hand, If WN starts PIT-BOS, US may cut and run leaving B6 & WN to have the route.

I think when jetBlue releases their winter schedule, you'll see some changes for Boston. Related to Southwest's entry and Delta and Airtran's departure/capacity cuts in Florida, jetBlue will add flights to Florida.
6-7D Fort Lauderdale-320
4-5D Fort Myers-320
1-2D Jacksonville-190
5-8D Orlando-320
4-5D Tampa-320
1D Sarasota-190 [Seasonal]
4-5D West Palm Beach
In addition to Florida, I would guess that B6 might add new routes that WN could target.
2D Houston Hobby-190
1D Phoenix-320 [Seasonal]
Finally, I would venture that B6 would add some frequencies to possible WN route options.
+1D Denver-320
+1D Las Vegas-320
+1D Pittsburgh-190
+1D Raleigh Durham-190

Unrelated to WN entering the market, I suspect that B6 will add some more Caribbean capacity.
1X Montego Bay-320
1X Santo Domingo-320
Frequency wise
+1D San Juan-320
+3X Cancun-320

All said and done, I think that B6 will have between 60 and 80 daily flights out of Boston this winter.

I'd like to see some pvd-jfk flights. Think that will ever happen?

[QUOTE=MrPresident1776;11288229]
+1D Raleigh Durham-190
[QUOTE]

JetBlue is already adding an additional flight RDU-BOS on E190.. as well as upgrading 2x JFK from 190 to 320..

What I am hoping for is a new destination such as MCO, IAD, and/or LA

I'd like to see some pvd-jfk flights. Think that will ever happen?

No, absolutely not. Because it can't be support for JFK-PVD due to slots restrictions in JFK. I don't think such good idea at all. I think let's speculation for which routes will be choose from BOS or whatever in New England.

I expect Southwest to fly to the Caribbean in 2 to 3 years, possibly via a partnership but probably on their own. Southwest has been modifying its computer systems to handle international service, and that's just about done.

Southwest has no need or desire to go head to head with JetBlue. For the most part, Southwest will go after another airline only when that airline is clearly on the way out of a market and it's only a matter of when.

Are you feels concerns about WN will looking for more new route from BOS-Caribbean in between 2 or 3 years. WN will have ETOPS certification overwater restricted with liferaft or lifejacket. If they will carry more lifeboat inside the entire aircraft. I'm sure they will be there in between 2 or 3 years in year of 2012. If they will announce more international expansion from WN.

Are you feels concerns about WN will looking for more new route from BOS-Caribbean in between 2 or 3 years. WN will have ETOPS certification overwater restricted with liferaft or lifejacket. If they will carry more lifeboat inside the entire aircraft. I'm sure they will be there in between 2 or 3 years in 2012. If they will announce more international expansion from WN.

I would expect WN to fly from ISP and BWI to SJU, not from BOS.

I would expect WN to fly from ISP and BWI to SJU, not from BOS.

And there is so much more BNA/MCO/FLL/TPA-SJU will be great opportunity for served to Caribbean.

No, absolutely not. Because it can't be support for JFK-PVD due to slots restrictions in JFK. I don't think such good idea at all. I think let's speculation for which routes will be choose from BOS or whatever in New England.

Not of they move some of their Boston JFK flights down there. I suspect a good portion of Jetblue's Boston passengers would prefer to use pvd. I know I would and I often hear chatter from people who live in the RI area on those flights.

Probably the two most vulnerable routes as far as a head to head match up would be BOS-MCO and BOS-FLL. Would BOS-MDW count also (Same city as ORD but different station)? BOS-ORD doesn't have much slack for B6 to cut. As far as FLL and MCO is how much will WN be able to shave away from B6?

See this informative post on the Southwest forum (http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/11290183-post69.html) for numbers on various markets.

Probably the two most vulnerable routes as far as a head to head match up would be BOS-MCO and BOS-FLL. Would BOS-MDW count also (Same city as ORD but different station)? BOS-ORD doesn't have much slack for B6 to cut. As far as FLL and MCO is how much will WN be able to shave away from B6?

Are you telling me more information where WN will looking for? I can't guarantee where WN will not have any tough competitive with B6. Beside, I think it would be keep away from B6. I think WN will looking for 2 or 3 dailies from BOS-FLL. I don't know about DL does still continues flies from FLL-BOS lately. I'm sure if DL will have to boost up more capacity passengers for BOS-FLL during winter time of '09/10. It will be escaping from BOS passengers are likely to liesure traveler to Florida trip.

WN plans on a "conservative" launch out of 2 gates. Let's say that gives them 18 round-trip flights. My guess is that this is how the launch will look:

7x MDW
7x BWI
4x MCO

JetBlue serves ORD (2x this summer), IAD (7x this summer), and MCO (5x this summer). Clearly, BOS-ORD isn't high on JetBlue's priority list, so I don't see much of an effect there. I think that WN's flights to BWI would give FL a run for their money on the route; IAD serves a different part of the DC metro area than BWI, if I'm not mistaken.

The only direct competition would be BOS-MCO - a route which already has low yields and tons of capacity, but one that JetBlue continues to succeed on. Also, don't forget that BOS passengers can connect in MCO to NAS, BOG, SJU, BQN, PSE, SJO, CUN, and SDQ. WN has virtually no connection opportunities in MCO, other than FLL if I'm not mistaken.

Overall, I don't think that WN to BOS means much for B6. But they will certainly have to keep an eye on them, and perhaps block expansion possibiltiies (such as taking on more gates, beefing up frequencies to potential WN markets, etc).

Carrier Shares for December 2007 - November 2008
*** Among 844 U.S. airports, 12 months ending November 2008
Carrier Passengers (000) Share
JetBlue 3,661 16.57%
American 3,274 14.82%
US Airways 3,178 14.39%
Delta 2,935 13.29%
United 2,301 10.42%
Other 6,740 30.51%

Delta and AA are better protected from Southwest's incursion by a heavier schedule of international flights - which are excluded fron the data set.

Passenger numbers = arriving + departing. Matching B6's volume could take 45-50 turns a day, well beyond the capacity of a pair of gates.

WN plans on a "conservative" launch out of 2 gates. Let's say that gives them 18 round-trip flights. My guess is that this is how the launch will look:

7x MDW
7x BWI
4x MCO

JetBlue serves ORD (2x this summer), IAD (7x this summer), and MCO (5x this summer). Clearly, BOS-ORD isn't high on JetBlue's priority list, so I don't see much of an effect there. I think that WN's flights to BWI would give FL a run for their money on the route; IAD serves a different part of the DC metro area than BWI, if I'm not mistaken.

The only direct competition would be BOS-MCO - a route which already has low yields and tons of capacity, but one that JetBlue continues to succeed on. Also, don't forget that BOS passengers can connect in MCO to NAS, BOG, SJU, BQN, PSE, SJO, CUN, and SDQ. WN has virtually no connection opportunities in MCO, other than FLL if I'm not mistaken.

Overall, I don't think that WN to BOS means much for B6. But they will certainly have to keep an eye on them, and perhaps block expansion possibiltiies (such as taking on more gates, beefing up frequencies to potential WN markets, etc).



Correct. IAD really serves more for Northern VA, Panhandle of WVA and Central Va for those that cant afford flights out of RIC, being the big one in that region.

Not that this is related to the thread title, but is there any talk of any growth at IAD for B6. MY wife and I fly B6 about 95% of the time and we will be relocating to the IAD area and noticed most flights go through JFK. Just wondering if anyone knows of any potential there since they have that brand new terminal at IAD and the airport is still growing.
Good to see BOS getting more routes now as that is where we fly out of now. Impressed with the new carribean and columbia routes.
Good job B6^

Correct. IAD really serves more for Northern VA, Panhandle of WVA and Central Va for those that cant afford flights out of RIC, being the big one in that region.

Not that this is related to the thread title, but is there any talk of any growth at IAD for B6. MY wife and I fly B6 about 95% of the time and we will be relocating to the IAD area and noticed most flights go through JFK. Just wondering if anyone knows of any potential there since they have that brand new terminal at IAD and the airport is still growing.
Good to see BOS getting more routes now as that is where we fly out of now. Impressed with the new carribean and columbia routes.
Good job B6^

I would imagine that IAD would be high on B6's list of which airports to grow after they finish bringing BOS, MCO, and the Carribean up to where they want it to be (which might a year or two before we see sign of those expansions slowing down).

Then again, we could see them also looking at AUS, SLC, ORD, SEA, and LAS.

Where they develop after the current plans is still a mystery to us, maybe even to them themselves.