Emirates Airlines Skywards - Nagoya route Cancelled? Japan to California?

First the facts, then the questions...

Starting March 29th Emirates DXB-KIX becomes B77L with Suites, and Lie-Flat!!

New Japan UAE air traffic rights (Bilateral) will allow EK/EY 10 weekly flights to Tokyo from 2010, but more interestingly:

Link in English (http://airlineroute.blogspot.com/2008/12/japanuae-bilateral-emiratesetihad-to.html)
http://airlineroute.blogspot.com/2008/12/japanuae-bilateral-emiratesetihad-to.html


Link in Japanese (http://www.mlit.go.jp/report/press/cab03_hh_000048.html)
http://www.mlit.go.jp/report/press/cab03_hh_000048.html


5th Freedom Rights from KIX/NGO (or any point other than Tokyo) to LAX or SFO, meaning they can sell tickets from California to Japan and v.v. WITHOUT transiting Dubai!

BUT! My friend read in Nagoya newspaper this morning that Nagoya flights will be completely cut from April 2009. Is this true? Anybody hear anthing?

Also, when and what route will EK start Japan - USA flights (if ever). They have permission, doesnt mean they will use it I suppose. Why then did they bargain for it?

Cheers,

Derek

First the facts, then the questions...

Starting March 29th Emirates DXB-KIX becomes B77L with Suites, and Lie-Flat!!

New Japan UAE air traffic rights (Bilateral) will allow EK/EY 10 weekly flights to Tokyo from 2010, but more interestingly:

Link in English (http://airlineroute.blogspot.com/2008/12/japanuae-bilateral-emiratesetihad-to.html)
http://airlineroute.blogspot.com/2008/12/japanuae-bilateral-emiratesetihad-to.html


Link in Japanese (http://www.mlit.go.jp/report/press/cab03_hh_000048.html)
http://www.mlit.go.jp/report/press/cab03_hh_000048.html


5th Freedom Rights from KIX/NGO (or any point other than Tokyo) to LAX or SFO, meaning they can sell tickets from California to Japan and v.v. WITHOUT transiting Dubai!

BUT! My friend read in Nagoya newspaper this morning that Nagoya flights will be completely cut from April 2009. Is this true? Anybody hear anthing?

Also, when and what route will EK start Japan - USA flights (if ever). They have permission, doesnt mean they will use it I suppose. Why then did they bargain for it?

Cheers,

Derek


I've always thought that the NGO flight was a burden on EK. They are hardly ever in "breakeven" capacity. But what do I know.

I've always thought that the NGO flight was a burden on EK. They are hardly ever in "breakeven" capacity. But what do I know.

Really?

Let's look at this... aircraft config id F-12, J-42, Y-209... loads NGO-DXB
15 JAN F-4, J-24, Y-203
16 JAN F-3, J-42, Y-206
17 JAN F-3, J-41, Y-223 !
18 JAN F-3, J-21, Y-240 !
or
31 JAN F-4, J-17, Y-242 !

well, of course not all flight can be overbooked, for the same dates DXB-NGO looks like that
3-13-137, 2-21-150

but let's see some interesting future bookings:

18 MAR F-3, J-11, Y-273 !!
or 5 months ahead
06 MAY F-2, J-18, Y-151
07 MAY F-7, J-23, Y-152
08 MAY F-4, J-15, Y-148

Looks like although the Y cabin is doing okay, the premium cabins aren't doing as well.
Perhaps if the airline reduced frequency on the NGO route...

Really?

Let's look at this... aircraft config id F-12, J-42, Y-209... loads NGO-DXB
15 JAN F-4, J-24, Y-203
16 JAN F-3, J-42, Y-206
17 JAN F-3, J-41, Y-223 !
18 JAN F-3, J-21, Y-240 !
or
31 JAN F-4, J-17, Y-242 !

well, of course not all flight can be overbooked, for the same dates DXB-NGO looks like that
3-13-137, 2-21-150

but let's see some interesting future bookings:

18 MAR F-3, J-11, Y-273 !!
or 5 months ahead
06 MAY F-2, J-18, Y-151
07 MAY F-7, J-23, Y-152
08 MAY F-4, J-15, Y-148

So what? The Economy could mainly be cheapo tickets. The loads in F & J are poor, and this is where the money is made.

Do EK *really* overbook by that much in Y class?

Cheers,
Rick

F/J loads do seem to be quite low... maybe a 2 - class plane would work?

Cheers,

Really?

Let's look at this... aircraft config id F-12, J-42, Y-209... loads NGO-DXB
15 JAN F-4, J-24, Y-203
16 JAN F-3, J-42, Y-206
17 JAN F-3, J-41, Y-223 !
18 JAN F-3, J-21, Y-240 !
or
31 JAN F-4, J-17, Y-242 !

well, of course not all flight can be overbooked, for the same dates DXB-NGO looks like that
3-13-137, 2-21-150

but let's see some interesting future bookings:

18 MAR F-3, J-11, Y-273 !!
or 5 months ahead
06 MAY F-2, J-18, Y-151
07 MAY F-7, J-23, Y-152
08 MAY F-4, J-15, Y-148

I travel to Japan at least once every month. Most times KIX is closed in J. Then I have to opt for the NGO flight, and it has ALWAYS been empty. (Taken it about 4 times in the last 3 months). Once, I was the only passenger in F, and last time when i travelled in December, there was no one in F. Maybe I went on a 'non-peak' day.

So what? The Economy could mainly be cheapo tickets. The loads in F & J are poor, and this is where the money is made.

Do EK *really* overbook by that much in Y class?



1. Sorry, but you are totally wrong!
In Emirates the big money is in cargo, then - Economy! Business and First is more for "prestige".

2. Cheapest fares from NGO to LON - 1270 EUR, to GRU - 2000 EUR, DXB - 1230 EUR

3. Depends on the destination and J class bookings.
For example, there are almost no no-shows on Moscow flight, so no overbooking on this flight.
But Lagos flight is the other extreme - at least 1/3 are no-shows
Saudi pax usually do not care about the date on their tickets, they just show up at the airport when they want, for that reason JED and RUH are the only destinations where you must reconfirm your return flight.

Does anybody know if they are really cancelling it?

UPDATE: The japanese newspapers are very specific, the flight will be cancelled and all passengers will be rebooked through Osaka.

I find this strange since the 1) B777-200 holds only a few more passenger than the A340, the 2) Osaka flight is always full (therefore cannot accomodate the extra passengers) and 3) The Nagoya flight is still for sale through December, and 4) There is no announcement on the Emirates.com website.

Also anybody "in-the-know" have any info about Japan-USA?

Cheers,

Derek

1. Sorry, but you are totally wrong!
In Emirates the big money is in cargo, then - Economy! Business and First is more for "prestige".


Then why have a F or J cabin?

2. Cheapest fares from NGO to LON - 1270 EUR, to GRU - 2000 EUR, DXB - 1230 EUR


What's your point here?

Cheers,
Rick

1. Sorry, but you are totally wrong!
In Emirates the big money is in cargo, then - Economy! Business and First is more for "prestige".

2. Cheapest fares from NGO to LON - 1270 EUR, to GRU - 2000 EUR, DXB - 1230 EUR


But then why would EK configure the A380 so that almost half the seating capacity is just for 'prestige.' Wouldn't it have made more sense to start with something that was mostly Y and have a small F / J cabin?

Cheers,

Then why have a F or J cabin?



What's your point here?

Cheers,
Rick

The point is:
1. 1270 EUR is not a "cheapo" ticket
2. There is already an answer for your question - mainly for "prestige". The point is - the big money are from cargo and economy pax. Just because there is demand for JC or FC seats and yes, they are profitable as well, doesnt mean the big profit is there. The big money is from YC. Just a simple calculation:

Cheapest ex-european destination
320 YC pax x 500 EUR for ticket = 160.000 EUR
12 FC pax x 4000 EUR for ticket = 48.000 EUR

ex-NGO
200 YC x 1200 EUR = 240.000 EUR
12 FC x 6000 EUR = 72.000 EUR

ex-NGO
200 YC x 1200 EUR = 240.000 EUR
12 FC x 6000 EUR = 72.000 EUR

But if we look at the A340 (which is used to NGO IIRC) and assume a full flight using your numbers ex NGO

F/J - 12+42 = 54 x 6000 EUR = 324 000 EUR
Y - 213 x 1200 EUR = 255 600 EUR

Obviously these figures are very rough since all 3 classes have different 'tiers' of fares, pax could be travelling to different destionations etc.

Cheers,

Cheapest ex-european destination
320 YC pax x 500 EUR for ticket = 160.000 EUR
12 FC pax x 4000 EUR for ticket = 48.000 EUR

ex-NGO
200 YC x 1200 EUR = 240.000 EUR
12 FC x 6000 EUR = 72.000 EUR

You conveniently forget J class I notice, and fail to take into account that a far greater percentage of J/F class tickets will be in a higher fare bucket than the Y class. In general, the revenue from F/J will be greater than from Y.

You are very naive if you think airlines have F & J class for 'prestige'.

Cheers,
Rick

Oh yeah, and it looks like NGO ends on 28/3/2009.

Cheers,
Rick

For answering the actual question!

Yeah I was sad to see the flights finally pulled from the GDS today. I guess that answers my other query, if Emirates goes trans Pacific it'll be from Osaka.

Too bad more people didn't pony up the dough for the wide seats. I guess that's what finally killed off the route.

Cheers,

Derek

For answering the actual question!

Yeah I was sad to see the flights finally pulled from the GDS today. I guess that answers my other query, if Emirates goes trans Pacific it'll be from Osaka.

Too bad more people didn't pony up the dough for the wide seats. I guess that's what finally killed off the route.

Cheers,

Derek

Recession? Less business traffic between Africa/Europe/Middle East-Nagoya? Wonder where the aircraft will go.
Perhaps EK withdrew NGO to put the frequencies into KIX and NRT (after all, they ARE limited).

Oh yeah, and it looks like NGO ends on 28/3/2009.

Cheers,
Rick

Must be because it was doing so well, as ekfb insisted... :rolleyes:

Even KIX is a near-impossible airport for maintaining premium cabin traffic, which is why both JL and NH has pulled most of their longhaul flights from KIX (I think NH pulled all longhaul from KIX several years ago, JL pulled most of them recently). I doubt that NGO was any better for premium cabin traffic - if anything, probably worse.

Also, I doubt that EK will be able to make KIX-US work. Unless they offer heavily discounted fares, I doubt that there will be enough F/J traffic for the route to survive.

Even KIX is a near-impossible airport for maintaining premium cabin traffic, which is why both JL and NH has pulled most of their longhaul flights from KIX (I think NH pulled all longhaul from KIX several years ago, JL pulled most of them recently). I doubt that NGO was any better for premium cabin traffic - if anything, probably worse.

Also, I doubt that EK will be able to make KIX-US work. Unless they offer heavily discounted fares, I doubt that there will be enough F/J traffic for the route to survive.

I'm also sceptical about EK making KIX/NRT-SFO/LAX work. Currently, the routes are dominated by airlines such as JAL, ANA, United and Delta (operated by Northwest) who all have well-developed intra-Asian routes to feed the transpac operations, with the American airlines having feed at both ends due to their respective hubs.
EK, on the other hand, will rely on O&D between Japan and the US-don't know if the Emirates brand is strong enough in Japan to make this work.
EK making Japan-US West Coast work isn't impossible but it needs a defined marketing and pricing strategy to enter one of the world's dense markets.