JetBlue TrueBlue - June results announced

Actually pretty good. Load factors remained in the low 80s and RASM is up 14% over last year, which is HUGE. Ontime rate of only 65% isn't particularly nice, but that seems to be the only blemish.

http://investor.jetblue.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=131045&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1172362&highlight=

NEW YORK, July 7, 2008 (PRIME NEWSWIRE) -- JetBlue Airways Corporation (Nasdaq:JBLU) reported today that its traffic in June increased 2.3 percent from June 2007, on a capacity increase of 3.2 percent.

Load factor for June 2008 was 83.1 percent, a decrease of 0.7 points from June 2007. JetBlue's preliminary completion factor was 97.8 percent and its on-time (1) performance was 65.0 percent. JetBlue's preliminary passenger revenue per available seat mile for the month of June increased 14 percent year over year.


JETBLUE AIRWAYS TRAFFIC RESULTS

June 2008 June 2007 % Change

Revenue passenger miles (000) 2,304,636 2,251,964 2.3%
Available seat miles (000) 2,774,456 2,688,228 3.2%
Load factor 83.1% 83.8% (0.7) pts.
Revenue passengers 1,896,582 1,815,563 4.5%
Departures 17,144 15,972 7.3%
Average stage length 1,149 1,170 (1.8)%

Y-T-D 2008 Y-T-D 2007 % Change

Revenue passenger miles (000) 13,319,161 12,677,666 5.1%
Available seat miles (000) 16,777,916 15,435,523 8.7%
Load factor 79.4% 82.1% (2.7) pts.
Revenue passengers 11,155,184 10,677,840 4.5%
Departures 104,501 96,087 8.8%
Average stage length 1,135 1,111 2.2%

Wow! This really goes against the trend. The last 8 months or so these traffic reports have been showing a decline of between 2 and 3 percentage points on LF and an increase of between 7-10 points on RASM.

The fact that RASM increased so much YOY while load factor remained relatively unchanged (as well as bucking the trend) is good news. I wonder if the RASM increase is going to be enough to offset the cost of fuel or if Jetblue is still throwing into the wind?

We'll know soon enough. The 2cd Q earnings call is scheduled for July 22cd.

For comparison:

CO LF is down 2.1% YOY (although respectable 83.6%) with a RASM increase of 4-5%.

WN LF is down 3.9% YOY (partially due to expansion I'm sure) with no reporting on RASM but with their new markets and demand stimulation fares I can't see it being much, if anything.

It appears B6 has been able to both raise fares and maintain demand.

The fact that RASM increased so much YOY while load factor remained relatively unchanged (as well as bucking the trend) is good news. I wonder if the RASM increase is going to be enough to offset the cost of fuel or if Jetblue is still throwing into the wind?
<snip>
It appears B6 has been able to both raise fares and maintain demand.

I'm not sure that they broke the trend since they were still down a little bit on LF, but the rise in RASM is pretty impressive. I also think that it is no surprise that CO's RASM is up since there are still a number of markets where B6 (and F9 and YX and WN) set the bottom fare. As those carriers have raised the bottom the legacies have matched, so everyone's numbers are coming up.

I think that CO's LF is ridiculously strong, but we're also still seeing tix that were bought late last year being used up in many cases for summer holiday trips. Post-Labor Day is where I think we'll really start to see things shake up on both RASM and LFs.

Definitely nice to see RASM up like that. Seven-tenths of a point on the downside with LF is really nothing to write home about - especially with the current state of the entire economy. Word is things are not looking good at all for F9. Things will be very interesting going forward. Oil prices aren't helping anyone, but some small hedges don't hurt.

What accounts for the terrible on-time performance? There weren't a lot of weather issues at JFK in June, were there?

Completion factor of < 98% is not great either. More than 1 of every 50 flights failed to operate? Is there a big recurring contributing factor to point to?

Post-Labor Day is where I think we'll really start to see things shake up on both RASM and LFs.

It will be interesting to see how it shakes out. Reduction in ASM's(i think 10%) for the industry immediately following Labor Day and a seasonal reduction in LF, possibly becoming more dramatic.

The hub and spoke airlines will be the ones best able to mitigate LF by removing supply from p2p routes and right-sizing hub flying. They may have trouble on the RASM side of the equation due to some customer resistance to higher fares. P2P airlines, most usually LCC's ironically, will have the bigger advantage in raising prices on their nonstop flights. The question for them would seem to be whether they can keep loads reasonable and how that will effect RASM. It will be a crucial time for everyone.

What accounts for the terrible on-time performance? There weren't a lot of weather issues at JFK in June, were there?

Completion factor of < 98% is not great either. More than 1 of every 50 flights failed to operate? Is there a big recurring contributing factor to point to?


I remember at least three different thunderstorms that probably effected it somewhat.

I am also a little surprised by their YTD competion rate of 98.9%.

Nice surprise on the rev side, again the story will be fuel and how much was able to be hedged etc. There are some great people handling that program and I think we might see an upside on the 22nd.

September and onward will be the story and I can guarantee every analyst will focus on it during the conference call.