Cathay Pacific Asia Miles - Opening of cross-strait flights. What does it mean for CX?

If you have heard the news, non-stop flights between the PRC and Taiwan will be commencing this July. Meaning there is no longer a need for the third link in Hong Kong. Do you think this will mean a reduction of flights from HKG to TPE?

well as i mention in another location, for people that are near or in shenzhen it will remain the same. Others who work/live/travel to the first 5 or 6 locations do have a new option. But since the timing is kind of awkward and prices still not very clear, i'm not sure how bad i will be for CX/KA. But they have already started lowering the number of flight, CI, BR, already in the move... i sure do hope i dont' have to start all over with another airline...

If you have heard the news, non-stop flights between the PRC and Taiwan will be commencing this July. Meaning there is no longer a need for the third link in Hong Kong. Do you think this will mean a reduction of flights from HKG to TPE?

Bluntly put, there is definitely still need for the "third link" in Hong Kong at least in the medium term. In the long run it will decrease flights to/from Taiwan via HKG, but the change will be far more gradual than everyone is expecting.

1.) They are weekend charter flights only, to a limited # of cities
2.) Taiwan and China still have not made major strides in changing visa restrictions for mainland tourists to Taiwan

Obviously the change is starting...but it will take time. Someone mentioned above the Taiwanese carriers have already started cutting back, and I think the immediate effect will actually to be to make CX and KA more full due to the loss of capacity on the route (all else equal...including ignoring an economic slowdown).

Non-stop services are currently only served between...

Taipei Sungshan (TSA)
Taipei Taoyuan (TPE)

Beijing Capital (PEK)
Guangzhou Baiyun (CAN)
Nanjing Lukou (NKG)
Shanghai Pudong (PVG)
Xiamen Gaoqi (XMN)

...for a total number of 36 flights back and forth between all these destination during the weekend. It's planned to be increased to 72 after Olympics, and open 5 more destinations by the end of the year with flight services everyday.

I see no capacity cuts for CX/KA needed in the beginning, but a heavy loss will be seen in the future in this golden route shared between the Cantonese and Taiwanese carriers.

Before the Olympics, I see no reasons to have routes reduced.
After the Olympics, still no reason for CX/KA to reduce as BR/CI will be the first ones to move their flights out of HKG or MFM.
End of the year when daily flights available and five more destinations opened (which one of them is planned to be Shenzhen Baoan), we should expect some cuts to be done by CX/KA.
By next July when it's no longer charter flights, we should expect heavy cuts.

By next summer, do you think CX will keep TPE as a focus city, and continue their flights to Japan and Korea non stop from Taipei?

By next summer, do you think CX will keep TPE as a focus city, and continue their flights to Japan and Korea non stop from Taipei?

TPE-NRT is a very popular route, I don't see any reason for CX to cut back that daily flight.

TPE should still be a focus city for CX as there are lots of passengers travelling between Taiwan and Japan. It was once discussed that the Cantonese got better routes because they can exercise their options to East Asia, while the Taiwanese can only get routes to South East Asia.

There's currently five daily flights via TPE, and I find these are going to stay.
Fukuoka (FUK)
Nagoya Centrair (NGO)
Osaka Kansai (KIX)
Seoul Incheon (ICN)
Tokyo Narita (NRT)

I think CX will probably try to talk with PRC and ROC to get rights to fly between China and Taiwan. However, both sides will probably face problems within their national airlines as it will create profit issues.

I hear that only China/Taiwan passports are allowed for the weekend flights... Each of my trips hit TPE/CAN/PVG so I chose CX as my carrier out of LAX. Perhaps when the routes are further expanded and fares more predictable, I might find myself to be a defector :D

Although I would lose a lot of benefits... I dont think CI/BR have good mileage/loyalty programs.