Qantas Frequent Flyer - Shares dive 10% in a day. Flights cut by about 20%. Chicago service cancelled.




ozstamps
Mar 28, 03, 12:39 am
http://afr.com/premium/companies/2003/03/28/FFX3CBVZSDD.html

War, virus take toll on Qantas

Mar 28 - Giles Parkinson and Damien Lynch

Shares in Qantas Airways on Friday slumped almost 10 per cent after the airline announced it would be unable to meet some analyst expectations for net profit in 2002/03.

The airline also said it would cut flights and staff numbers as bookings, particularly for inbound flights, fall because of the war in Iraq and the emergence of a deadly strain of pneumonia in Asia.

Qantas chief executive Geoff Dixon later told reporters during a briefing in Sydney that bookings for Japan (down 30 per cent) and the UK (down 18 per cent) were most affected, while US traffic was up a bit.

Mr Dixon said Hong Kong bookings had been holding up until about three days ago, but since then the drop had been ``quite horrendous''.

He declined to put a precise number on the Hong Kong bookings lost, only saying that ``scores'' and not thousands of people had been involved.

Qantas said it would slash its international flights by up to 20 per cent, confirming analyst fears that it had been hit by a fall in traffic numbers along with other carriers around the world.

Airlines in the US have reported a 40 per cent slump in international bookings and a 20 per cent slump in domestic bookings.

The US industry has asked for $6.8 billion in government aid, and airlines have suffered sharp falls in their share price and reports have suggested that American Airlines could make a bankruptcy filing as early as next week.

Qantas shares plummetted 32 to an 18-month low of $2.89, cutting more than $500 million off its market capitalisation.

The stock is at its lowest since the immediate aftermath of the September 11 terrorist attacks and has fallen from a record high of $4.92 reached in May last year.

Chief executive Geoff Dixon said the company had foreshadowed in February that its results could be adversely affected if tensions in Iraq and fears of terrorism continued. That was now a reality, but he insisted that the airline was still in a strong position compared to many other carriers.

"The company will still record a strong result for the year ended 30 June, 2003, and will remain one of the most profitable airlines in the world," he said in a statement.

Mr Dixon told reporters the group's net profit in 2002-03 would be about 15 per cent below analyst consensus expectations.

``We know what the market thinks and it is around about 15 per cent [below that],'' he said.

The airline had been expected to earn profits of nearly $600 million in the 2003 fiscal year, up from $428 million a year earlier. But some analysts in recent weeks have cut their earnings forecasts by around $100 million, which would tally with Mr Dixon's projection.

The chief executive said Qantas would now try to focus on the domestic holiday market for growth.

``We'll just see how we go,'' he said.

Mr Dixon said six out of 30 flights to Hong Kong would be cut each week, along with four flights to the UK, three flights to Los Angeles, and one weekly flight to each of Rome and Paris.

Flights to Chicago that had been due to start next week have been deferred and flights to Japan had also been reduced by 20 per cent.

Many other airlines around the world have taken similar measures, particularly Air France, british Airways and Lufthansa. In Asia, Japan Airlines has cut flights by nearly 10 per cent and Cathay Pacific has suffered a sharp fall in its share price.

Mr Dixon noted Qantas had already planned to use accumulated annual leave to reduce staff numbers by the equivalent of 2,500 full time employees and had implemented a staff freeze.

He told reporters the airline would put an additional 500 staff on the leave program in the coming six weeks, and had ``room'' to extend the program even further.

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~ Glen ~

Come visit HERE (http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/Forum13/HTML/000502.html) the most ** FRIENDLY FORUM ** on FlyerTalk. No flame wars, no personal abuse, no substance abuse. Not much of anything really!


QF WP
Mar 28, 03, 12:57 am
...and just as quickly will the share price recover when Gulf War II is over, the virus is contained and forward bookings recover. Time to be counter cyclical (Willyroo will understand http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/biggrin.gif)

I cancelled two BNE/LHR bookings today for Easter/Anzac Day break, yet QF Premium Res said that LHR had not really been affected but they were seeing cerain routes fall - thus the thread that I put up earlier today.

I don't know about others, but my Dom travel is picking back up again.

kpc
Mar 28, 03, 2:08 am
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by QF WP:
...and just as quickly will the share price recover when Gulf War II is over, the virus is contained and forward bookings recover. Time to be counter cyclical
</font>

Do I sense a share buying opportunity? http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/biggrin.gif



[This message has been edited by kpc (edited 03-28-2003).]


ozstamps
Mar 28, 03, 2:21 am
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by QF WP:

Do I sense a share buying opportunity? http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/biggrin.gif </font>

It it ROARS up 50% in value it will be exactly where it was a year back.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=QAN.AX&d=c&k=c1&a=v&p=s&t=1y&l=off&z=m&q=l

QF WP
Mar 28, 03, 3:09 am
kpc, don't let anybody tell you that you aren't perceptive http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/thumbsup.gif

ozstamps that would mean a 100% profit (minus commission on both trades)...I think most would be modestly happy if that happens http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/cool.gif

ozstamps
Mar 28, 03, 3:33 am
No - if you buy for the long term (as most wise investors do) you have LOST a bomb from last year until now. A $45,000 outlay a year back gets you now $30,000.

Only AMP fund managers can replicate that kind of business savvy.

The HUGE problem with buying any airline share, especially a thinly held one like QF compared to US or European airline stocks, is that ONE aviation disaster will torpedo your stock. If a QF aircraft exploded in mid air tonight, or skidded off a runway in BKK, and went into the bay instead of pulling up short of it etc, etc, causing great loss of life, you'd be looking at a $2 share price come Monday, no question.

No other company on the industrial list has that kind of short term down spike risk for events totally outside their control. Not Coles, not BHP, not Brambles, not CSR, not ANZ bank etc.

[This message has been edited by ozstamps (edited 03-28-2003).]

QF WP
Mar 28, 03, 4:47 am
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by ozstamps:
No - if you buy for the long term (as most wise investors do) you have LOST a bomb from last year until now. A $45,000 outlay a year back gets you now $30,000.</font>

Yes, if you were already holding the stock...but that was not my comment above, which alludes to buying it NOW.

If you are a strategic investor (sometimes known as a growth investor), you will be riding the cycle as you correctly pointed out. Most strategic investors will simply be buying more as the price drops (if they maintain their core belief in the stock), also known as "dollar cost averaging".

Presently, yes, they would be sitting on a loss situation, but are potentially (once the price rises), making money from a sooner point in time.

If you are a tactical investor (sometimes known as a value investor), then one may be looking to buy now, at a low point (particularly where the NTA of the share is higher than the current market price). As the prices rises towards the fair value of the NTA, a value investor sells out to maximise their profit and seek value elsewhere in the market.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Only AMP fund managers can replicate that kind of business savvy.</font>

Wrong...how about trying fund managers like Bankers Trust, Rothschild, Colonial First State, and any other growth-oriented manager, all who are showing Australian Share Fund returns (losses) in the double digits over the pat year.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">The HUGE problem with buying any airline share, especially a thinly held one like QF compared to US or European airline stocks, is that ONE aviation disaster will torpedo your stock. If a QF aircraft exploded in mid air tonight, or skidded off a runway in BKK, and went into the bay instead of pulling up short of it etc, etc, causing great loss of life, you'd be looking at a $2 share price come Monday, no question.</font>

Agree with your comment here, very well put.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">No other company on the industrial list has that kind of short term down spike risk for events totally outside their control. Not Coles, not BHP, not Brambles, not CSR, not ANZ bank etc. </font>

Don't quite agree, ANY industially-listed company that has not adequately done a complete business risk analysis and mitigated away the controllable risk by the various methods - insurance, cease operations in area, workplace health and safety, training programs - may be party to the downside spikes in price.

(edited to fix quoting)

[This message has been edited by QF WP (edited 03-28-2003).]

shillard
Mar 28, 03, 3:00 pm
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by ozstamps:
No - if you buy for the long term (as most wise investors do) you have LOST a bomb from last year until now. A $45,000 outlay a year back gets you now $30,000. </font>

Only if you were stupid enough to sell now.

If you don't sell, then you haven't lost a cent.

ozstamps
Mar 28, 03, 6:46 pm
Paul Clitheroe is among us?

I bet the folks who bought Yahoo at $US900 or whatever a share are delighted to read this wise advice. http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/biggrin.gif

'Spend $10 million on shares at the wrong end of the market, and you never lose a bean until you sell. Dont be stupid and ever sell folks.' http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/rolleyes.gif

Make an interesting book title.

shillard
Mar 28, 03, 8:33 pm
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by ozstamps:
Paul Clitheroe is among us?

I bet the folks who bought Yahoo at $US900 or whatever a share are delighted to read this wise advice. http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/biggrin.gif
</font>

Yahoo was never going to be a smart buy. Only buy well established companies with a strong profit history, competent management, and a strong brand.

Golly gosh, like QF.

Anyone who got burned in the tech-wreck deserved it. Natural selection applies to financial domains, just as it does to all others.

ozstamps
Mar 28, 03, 8:43 pm
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by shillard:

Only buy well established companies with a strong profit history, competent management, and a strong brand.

</font>

Oh, you mean companies just like Enron?

michaelblain
Mar 29, 03, 5:43 am
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by ozstamps:
Oh, you mean companies just like Enron?

</font>

I think "competant management" would discount them - but most of their incompetance was discover after the event - except that which was discovered by their auditors.

QF WP
Mar 30, 03, 6:46 am
Shillard and michaelblain, good to see others out there sharing similar views...appears only ozstamps shares his.

Couldn't be bothered taking this any further...after all, it's well off topic [as usual, here at the Qantas site http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/wink.gif http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/wink.gif]

(edited to corect bolding}

[This message has been edited by QF WP (edited 03-30-2003).]



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