MilesBuzz! - It's -your- fault, Mr/Ms Frequent Flyer!

Airlines risk ballooning frequent-flyer payout

Consumers cashing in earned miles could put massive strain on carriers

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18660300/

NEW YORK - Bennett Porter, a globe-trotting Internet marketing executive, poses a big problem for U.S. airlines.

The New York-based traveler has amassed more than 1 million frequent flyer miles with American Airlines, and still others with additional carriers. She is one of a growing band of customers who plan to redeem those miles for free flights.

Frequent flyer reward schemes have ballooned over the years and accumulating points has become as common as buying a carton of milk. Carriers now risk paying a high price for the glut.

The points is that they plan to redeem but haven't done so yet. Very bad position to be in IMHO.

This seems to be one of those perennial stories that get trotted out as "news" from time to time. @:-)

And many of those people will probably redeem rule-buster awards, inefficient domestic awards, or just let the miles expire because they forget about them. As minimally as the airlines value the points themselves, I don't think there is anything to worry about.

I have not heard recently about all the potential disasters that would occur if everyone flushed their toilets at the same time.

MisterNice

with capacity controlled awards, the airlines remain in control of how many "non-rev" seats are allowed per plane. So we ff's are left to fight over the seats with more and more ff's who have more and more miles to obtain them. Meanwhile the airlines continue to sell more miles to citi and idine and any ho that'll take em. And anyway, these "non-rev" seats aren't "non-rev" at all. The airlines have collected billions of dollars for the miles that they've sold to merchants and then provide us with a few seats per plane (if that). Or they add more award availability when the flight is going underbooked and then charge us 100 for redeeming the miles too close to departure.

The airlines are not in trouble over this. Hardly. They are making a crap ton (which is about 2250 pounds) of cash and getting better at flying at capacity on the trading of ff miles.

the sky is falling... not.

I have not heard recently about all the potential disasters that would occur if everyone flushed their toilets at the same time.

MisterNice

I particularly enjoy the occasional stories about the dangers of those freak septic tank accidents.

the AWARD availablity from the us to europe is a desaster.

june - september you are lucky if you are able to get one seat.

airlines will just restrict award seats, and as not all flights go fully booked one or two persons more on a flight doesnt matter at all.

dp

with capacity controlled awards, the airlines remain in control of how many "non-rev" seats are allowed per plane.

My first thought while reading the article was who the shill for the airlines is that wrote this article. With capacity controls the airlines aren't in any position to lose a dime if they choose. They can limit or remove all reward seats from a flight or route if they wish. Of course that wasn't mentioned in the article, just that the poor airlines are going to be bombarded by us selfish people who redeem miles that the airlines gave us. How dare we do that to them!;)

This seems to be one of those perennial stories that get trotted out as "news" from time to time. @:-)

I agree. It was written by a reporter who had to submit an article and this was the best he/she could come up with.

There is no threat to the airlines. The miles are worthless. You can only get a 'free' ticket with miles if the airlines have determined that there is no chance in hell that they would ever sell that seat.
My personal experience with United in the first half of this year trying to fly between US and Europe... out of four trips, I was only able to get a 'free' ticket once (in February... and I had to pay for first class both ways to get a lousy routing and only one of the flights was actually first class)... there was no availability in any class (with very flexible dates) for any of the other trips... all of these in 'low season'.
I've been a 1K flyer for a number of years but it's not worth having loyalty to any airline... the miles are worthless.

This seems to be one of those perennial stories that get trotted out as "news" from time to time. @:-)
What are you talking about?? This is the first I've heard of this!

All those miles do represent a significant liability to the airlines, so "inflation" in the form of reduced non-revenue seat availability and/or increasing mileage requirements for reward seats is inevitable....just look at recent changes to Air Canada's Aeroplan program.

The solution: you're a fool if you accumulate a million miles. Burn 'em as you earn 'em to beat the coming devaluation.

Maybe I'm in a very small minority, but I think FF programs work very well for the savvy user -- within certain parameters. The trick is for you, the consumer, to use them - not to let them use you.

Now, I know my thinking is biased, b/c most of my mileage earning is based on business travel/spending that I get reimbursed for. Maybe if I was actually reling on those miles for things I couldn't do for myself, I'd feel differently.

I use FF awards mostly to book/upgrade to premium cabins on airplanes and premium rooms in 5 star hotels, where I would never bring myself to spend "real" money on it. So, in the 9 years (summer 1998 to summer 2007) that I've been redeeming my FF/hotel awards, here's a (mostly complete) list of what I've gotten (and an estimated cost of each award):

1998 - 2 EWR-London on CO (BizFirst) ($5k)
1999 - 4 HNL-EWR upgrades to CO (BizFirst) ($3k)
2000 - 4 JFK-CDG-WAW on AF (only Y) for family vacation ($3k)
2001 - EWR-GRU on CO (BizFirst) ($2k)
2003 - JFK-LAX on AA (in Y but booked 3 days in advance for a same-day RT) ($1,400)
2005 - 3 LAX-TLV on CO (BizFirst) - SleazyPass, but I needed a specific flight each way, and that's a VERY hot market. Plus, I had no CO status. ($9,600)
2005 - 3 JFK-LHR on AA (for my daughter to go to England with her grandparents, to mark a lifecycle event) ($2k)
2007 - 4 JFK-LAX upgrades to J on AA ($4k)
2007 - 4 LAX-HNL on AA (F - 3 tix, 1 upgrade), in a month; I can't wait! ($5k)
2007 - 2 LAX-LHR/LGW-VCE/FCO-LAX all in F or J...without kids! ($15k)

Plus, this summer's hotels in Europe -- suites in 5 star hotels for 10 nights ($7k) -- plus a whole bunch of CC swaps for other upgrades.

I figure that I've gotten at least $57k on value out of FF awards in 9 years. That doesn't include all the status-based upgrades, airline & hotel. So, while I may not like every little detail about the system, I'm ok with it if it makes me an "airline shill" to smile when I think about the look on my kids' face the first time we took them into BF, or to hear my son talk about his first trip to Israel being "in First Class on the weird airplane" (the CO Peter Max-painted 777), or to tell my teenager that "her ticket wasn't upgradeable" and watch her realize that it was already upgraded -- or just to be able to pack a little more sightseeing into a day with my wife b/c we slept well on the flight to Europe.

If you don't like it, donate your miles to charity.

You can only get a 'free' ticket with miles if the airlines have determined that there is no chance in hell that they would ever sell that seat.That's only if you are redeeming for capacity-controlled awards, i.e. the "saver" awards. If you are willing to pay more in miles, you can redeem "anytime" or "standard" awards that are good as long as there is space in the class you want, i.e. standard/anytime awards are "as good as cash." That certainly isn't worthless to me. (Not to mention that I've always found reasonable saver awards, anyway.)

I wonder how airlines loose all this money if they don't even release seats on some routes. For example, I looked at NW SEA-AMS flight for WBC seats, and did not see one available seat for redemption in the next year.

Same "news" article, different year. It's a lazy reporter: this article pretty much mails itself in. Total fluff, zero content, no new ground.

Europe in peak season is hard. Kansas City to Tulsa on Tuesday is easy. Somewhere in the middle, savvy FF'ers find value. This hasn't changed.

The airlines are winning big by selling billions of miles. Savvy FF'ers win by learning to play the game well. People who don't know how to play the game well subsidize it all.

My past year and a half has been pretty good for awards. We've done a series of family trips around North America. All of these awards were good real-cash value redemptions, which is a bit different than redeeming for transatlantic J/F - a ticket I'd never actually buy with cash to begin with.

- 3 tickets to Belize, 35k each, ~2 cents per mile
- 4 tickets to Montreal, 25k each, ~2.5 cents per mile
- 4 tickets to Puerto Vallarta, 30k each, ~1.5 cents per mile
- 2 tickets for wife & daughter to Seattle, for a peak summer weekend, ~2.2 cents per mile (a very lucky score: a domestic R/T selling only Q-RA fares and higher, but with two XY seats left)
- 4 tickets to Bermuda (coming this summer - at the 20,000 mile rate), ~2.2 cents per mile

None of these awards had a disadvantageous routing: all were one-stop through the normal hub for that destination (from MCI). Only the Belize one required an oddity: overnighting in Atlanta, costing me an additional 3,000 Starpoints.

Anyway, I agree with those who advise against hoarding, but I don't think the sky is falling. I'm earning and burning at roughly the same rate. My biggest blow this year was taking a 20-40% hit on my Starpoints.

I wonder how airlines loose all this money if they don't even release seats on some routes. For example, I looked at NW SEA-AMS flight for WBC seats, and did not see one available seat for redemption in the next year.

They have released seats on this flight. I got a WBC seat for a SEA-AMS flight in Feb 06 that I booked about 3 months out. Of course, I had to go via MSP to get back, b/c the AMS-SEA flight had no availability.

I agree. It was written by a reporter who had to submit an article and this was the best he/she could come up with.Don't you mean the best he/she could cut and paste by googling several past stories?

I agree. It was written by a reporter who had to submit an article and this was the best he/she could come up with.

yup, and I wonder if they PAID the reporter to write it. If so, can WE have a cut?

:DMM

Y'know, to the great unwashed out there, a million miles sounds like a million dollars. It ain't, and we know it.

For instance -- there's at least 8 or 10 airlines that fly US -> Europe every day, usually two or more flights, so there are hundreds of seats going transatlantic every day. Joe Million-Miler decids to splurge on a little trip to London for him and his SO. No availability? No problem -- just cough up for a "premium awards". And suddenly his million miles is shorter by between 400K and 500K, depending on the airline. For seats the airline wasn't going to sell anyhow.

That takes care of two seats on one flight on one airline for one day, and his stash is considerably reduced. Once more and he's out of the game.

Sorry -- I don't think the airlines are losing sleep over this possibility.

I am sorry to spoil conspiracy discussions and alike, but unless the american tax system is far different than for example the german (which it is surely not) then there is no problem at all for airlines.

Miles which are given out in the system are accumulated through different ways but land on the accounts of FF. This is trackable and has a value as in "this is the mixture of what awards are used for in classes and destinations, this is how much the value of these miles is for future travel."

The german term is rückstellungen and I do not the english one; provissions for future losses seems not fitting. It is like a pension plan when an airline has to make special money available in their finances for future USAGE of this because miles is a liabilty.

They can control the usage through awards and also it has a mix of other reward possibilities like gift vouchers and alike.

The cost for buying miles have to be the same as the internal cost plus markups, otherwise the internal calculation has to put a value on the calculated estimate of what the usage of this mile is worth.

It is the same as with other assets, for example if you are a bigger company in Germany you use to take your holidays sometimes into the next year (for example you do have 30 days of holiday from work and only used up 20). Financally the company has to take these 10 days, put a value on it and put it into the resulst of this fiscal year.

The next year when that holiday is consumed, the cost for it are already "covered" through no external money but going to the money from the provisions.

Every time an award is used, this happens here as well. The miles are deducted and an internal cost measurement is given for that flight as internal money instead of external paying.

Which is why there are limited availabilty of them - the calculation only accepts so many 'low paid' awards.

I'm pretty new to this FF game but so far I'm happy enough with the rewards. I live in Korea so maybe I'm not in the same competition for seats as others. But so far in the last 12 months I've scored family tickets for 4 to Saipan (Oct) and another 4 to Jeju Island (Korean tropical isle if you can believe that) again in Oct. For Memorial Day we're all going to Shanghai. Then in Jun we're going to Atlanta but only 1 is FF. This is for 2 1/2 years of flying. Unfortunately most of them have been my dollars vs the company's.

The New York-based traveler has amassed more than 1 million frequent flyer miles with American AirlinesAmateur. :rolleyes:

Amateur. :rolleyes:
I think you're being unfair to "Amateurs" when lumping this million miler with them....;) :D

Best, Dave

What would be interesting to know is exactly how many cents per mile the airlines value their FF miles at for accounting purposes. I'm sure they take those liabilities as a high dollar amount to offset revenue. Anyone ever hear what they use?

Glenn

What would be interesting to know is exactly how many cents per mile the airlines value their FF miles at for accounting purposes. I'm sure they take those liabilities as a high dollar amount to offset revenue. Anyone ever hear what they use?

Glenn

The Economist had a special report a couple of years ago (including quotes from Randy!). Available here (http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=E1_VPNPGTV) for existing subscribers.

This paragraph may help answer your question:
Airlines have to include a contingent liability in their accounts, to cover the future cost of unredeemed miles, but they try to make this as small as possible. American airlines ignore all miles in individual accounts until they reach blocks of 25,000 miles (the minimum required for a domestic ticket). Then, for each 25,000-mile block of unredeemed miles, they enter a liability of only $20-25. They also assume, on average, that one third of miles will never be redeemed. Taking all this into account, in 2004 the 14 biggest American airlines posted a total liability of only $3.9 billion to allow for future frequent-flyer mileage redemptions, according to IdeaWorks, a consulting firm.

Would be fun to see what happens if everyone with 1M miles redeems them for "rulebuster" awards to europe in the summer and domestic at thanksgiving time. And better yet for B/F seats. That would take out quite a few revenue seats which would have to affect the bottom line.

Alas, most of us look to redeem for saver awards. ;)

Would be fun to see what happens if everyone with 1M miles redeems them for "rulebuster" awards to europe in the summer and domestic at thanksgiving time. And better yet for B/F seats. That would take out quite a few revenue seats which would have to affect the bottom line.


I think "rulebuster" awards is the most likely area of reform. Continental discovered that at some point it actually costs them more money to further restrict "regular" awards since it forces more people to redeem rulebuster awards for which people tend to pick the most expensive direct flights, rather than whatever is available. A reasonable compromise would be for "rulebuster" awards to guarantee a seat to any destination on any day, but the airline gets to chose the flight, time and routing.

Amateur. :rolleyes:
You're right I am an amateur. That's why I'm hanging out at FT to try to get to professional status like those of you I read about. I've VERY envious of the MMs among you. :)

The solution: you're a fool if you accumulate a million miles. Burn 'em as you earn 'em to beat the coming devaluation.


Surely you mean the "next round in the regularly occuring devaluations."

One of the devaluations by AA in the past few years will forever stand out in my memory because it was immediately preceded by a very heavy period of promoting the purchase of miles. Flagrant bait and switch, IMO.

Then, for each 25,000-mile block of unredeemed miles, they enter a liability of only $20-25. They also assume, on average, that one third of miles will never be redeemed.To me, the one-third figure makes Starwood's handling of points never-to-be-redeemed (they call it "breakage") look even more suspicious. If you wade through the notes in their financial statements and do some quick math, Starwood (they blame it on a third-party actuary) claims that 60% of all outstanding points will never be redeemed. They've held that figure for the last several years. I think there's a lot more liability there than what they're claiming.

That's only if you are redeeming for capacity-controlled awards, i.e. the "saver" awards. If you are willing to pay more in miles, you can redeem "anytime" or "standard" awards that are good as long as there is space in the class you want, i.e. standard/anytime awards are "as good as cash."

DL will not allow you to redeem double miles on partner airlines to Europe. It's a saver seat or nothing. Another reason DL miles are worth less.

On the flip side, NW allows you to redeem double miles in one direction and saver in the other direction, including on KL. That's far better.

Maybe I'm in a very small minority, but I think FF programs work very well for the savvy user -- within certain parameters. The trick is for you, the consumer, to use them - not to let them use you.

i think you got it exactly right. it's like so many other things in life--there's a system, and you have to know how to work it to get best value.

................. A reasonable compromise would be for "rulebuster" awards to guarantee a seat to any destination on any day, but the airline gets to chose the flight, time and routing.

If my chosen airline did this, it would be the last time they would be used. If I'm going to double up on miles, then I better get my choice of routing and time. Otherwise, I'm jumping ship asap.

It would actually make more sense-for the airline-(although I don't like this either) to have the standard award routing be chosen by the airlines, and have the rule buster chosen by the redeemer.

Would be fun to see what happens if everyone with 1M miles redeems them for "rulebuster" awards to europe in the summer and domestic at thanksgiving time. And better yet for B/F seats. That would take out quite a few revenue seats which would have to affect the bottom line.

Alas, most of us look to redeem for saver awards. ;)

No. No. No. Summer and any holiday time is the best time to buy a deeply discounted business or first fare. When redeeming "rulebusters" you should do it when people are flying for business and thus you might end up "costing" the airline.

Personally I only redeem complicated international C and F tickets on partners.

Starwood (they blame it on a third-party actuary) claims that 60% of all outstanding points will never be redeemed. They've held that figure for the last several years. I think there's a lot more liability there than what they're claiming.

I am an amateur - They are calculating the accounts opened with signup bonuses and a few points that wil not get even one night at the cheapest brand. SOmepeople cannot even figure out how to use points to pay for magazine subscriptions.

Years ago before returning to the road I let United miles go in the tank because 2 free tickets did not offset the cost of three more.

EVerything else that was orphan (part of the 60 % that normally go unredeemed) were eventually transferred one way or another to either Hiltn or Continental - Even Starwood

They are calculating the accounts opened with signup bonuses and a few points that wil not get even one night at the cheapest brand. Somepeople cannot even figure out how to use points to pay for magazine subscriptions.I understand the whole idea behind unredeemed miles and points. My issue is that the 60% figure I listed is the same (near as I can tell) for the last five years - I think maybe it was 61% in 2001. But since then, I have to believe that the percentage of points awarded from the Starwood Amex vs. all Starpoints awarded has increased significantly over this period since the Starood Amex evangelists have spread the word far and wide that this is the single best credit card out there for miles and points. And I think that people who get points from the Starwood Amex are much more likely to redeem them vs. those who get points from hotel stays - otherwise, why would they bother getting the card?

It just strikes me wrong that there has been virtually no change in the estimate for unredeemed points in light of the growing popularity of gaining points from credit cards.

I wonder how airlines loose all this money if they don't even release seats on some routes. For example, I looked at NW SEA-AMS flight for WBC seats, and did not see one available seat for redemption in the next year.

How is them losing money at all related to whether or not they release any seats?? The unused miles on their books is a potential liability, meaning that at some point, those miles could be redeemed.

To me, the one-third figure makes Starwood's handling of points never-to-be-redeemed (they call it "breakage") look even more suspicious. If you wade through the notes in their financial statements and do some quick math, Starwood (they blame it on a third-party actuary) claims that 60% of all outstanding points will never be redeemed. They've held that figure for the last several years. I think there's a lot more liability there than what they're claiming.

I am one of those in the breakage group. It is their loss. It's too bad they don't figure future revenue lost for frequent stayers like me that now ignore their properties because they zeroed my account. I'll stick with their competition where I am in the top 1% of their elite members.

I've been smart enough to earn and burn the last 12 years. Rather than list all the free flights and hotel stays over that time, one rt flight alone that Mrs. Outoftown, my mom and I took in 2001 would have cost $42,000US (lowest price in 6 months of checking) if we didn't use miles. If all the programs all died today, I feel I have already gotten my share, but I'm still here like the rest of you because I want more!

I wish everyone would protest and avoid the rulebuster or anyday type awards. I have never paid more than the lowest award amount for all the flights I have taken. The net effect of paying double miles for an award is spiraling the value of miles down to a penny per mile, down from 2 cents per mile 10 years ago. My guess is that they are worth about 1.4 cents a mile now due to this devaluation and giving the airlines a way to cut their liability in half.

-outoftown

Another difficult stat to digest was in the Economist article (http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=E1_VPNPGTV) previously mentioned: "In 2004, over 20m free tickets were issued, and on a typical flight 7-8% of passengers were travelling on such tickets." Huh??? 7-8%??? How's this happen? Most of us agree that there are only a couple seats available for a saver award. This means that on a typical 145 seat narrow body airplane, 12 people are on a free ticket. If the airline generously gives out 5 saver seats, that means that 7 others are using 50k miles for a domestic ticket??? Anyone else find this stat a bit off?

Another difficult stat to digest was in the Economist article (http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=E1_VPNPGTV) previously mentioned: "In 2004, over 20m free tickets were issued, and on a typical flight 7-8% of passengers were travelling on such tickets." Huh??? 7-8%??? How's this happen? Most of us agree that there are only a couple seats available for a saver award. This means that on a typical 145 seat narrow body airplane, 12 people are on a free ticket. If the airline generously gives out 5 saver seats, that means that 7 others are using 50k miles for a domestic ticket??? Anyone else find this stat a bit off?

As soon as you see an article or hear a person describing award travel as "free", you know that you are dealing with someone who has a skewed view of the situation. Miles are sold directly to customers for cash, to credit card companies to award, etc. etc. They are part of the cost of our tickets and other transactions. Any travel or upgrade that I do with miles is EARNED or BOUGHT it is not given to me for free.

As soon as you see an article or hear a person describing award travel as "free", you know that you are dealing with someone who has a skewed view of the situation. Miles are sold directly to customers for cash, to credit card companies to award, etc. etc. They are part of the cost of our tickets and other transactions. Any travel or upgrade that I do with miles is EARNED or BOUGHT it is not given to me for free.

Too true. As for % of seats allocated, I'll bet it varies quite a bit. Airlines do not exactly believe in transparency in this area, and that should be a red flag. I think they can release a high % of award seats on lower-demand routes but hold it to a very low minimum in cases where tickets are moving. And with the "rule buster" awards they can feel even freer to give standard awards short shrift.

CO's "award travel forecast" was a real hoot back in the days before they ran me off with 50% EQMs. I got to read how there were plenty of seats available to CLE if I'd only change my vacation plans and go there.

As soon as you see an article or hear a person describing award travel as "free", you know that you are dealing with someone who has a skewed view of the situation. Miles are sold directly to customers for cash, to credit card companies to award, etc. etc. They are part of the cost of our tickets and other transactions. Any travel or upgrade that I do with miles is EARNED or BOUGHT it is not given to me for free.

Well put. As a "frequent buyer" I certainly feel that I have EARNED every mile!

...exactly!
Which is why I think miles earned should be useable on flights just like money. The airlines already made something on the sale of those miles. Now if we wish to cash in, that's what should be doable. You always hear, "Well, if everyone cashed in all at once they would go out of business." Bull! they already MADE the money on those now cashed in miles! They either should have sold less or planned more.

If I ran my business this way, people would call me unethical.

All those miles do represent a significant liability to the airlines, so "inflation" in the form of reduced non-revenue seat availability and/or increasing mileage requirements for reward seats is inevitable....
The solution: you're a fool if you accumulate a million miles. Burn 'em as you earn 'em to beat the coming devaluation.

I tend to agree with SV and I have been pondering the dilemma of amassing miles because I have felt sort of trapped, but I do not feel foolish. I hate to use miles for anything but flying, but have used miles for a video ipod (30K) and music (50K)-(mileage plus) - as for flying, I have used free trips with my parents to Germany-Octoberfrest (2 econ), Thailand (3 econ) and Japan(3 bus) and a free trip to Thailand for myself over the past 3 years. I still have over 700K miles and have just booked 2 free flights including a first class trip in August. But I may cancel the free trips if an expecially juicy cheap flight shows up and I still need a trip to use the upgrades. This will result in more miles being accumulated even though I recognize the need and desire to reduce the amount that I have, but this is the exact reason that has caused me to increase my miles balance each year.

I started amassing UA miles after I became a 1K. The dilemma me me is that, as a 1K, I get SWUs that are only good for a year, and to me, the upgrades are worth travelling for. But I have to buy a ticket to use the upgrade and I barely fly enough to make 1K, even though I have made huge efforts to use miles(see above). Last year, the last mileage run I made was to Chicago (didn't get to use a SWU) and made 100K by 400 miles. The bottom line here is that there is an incentive for me to buy the tickets to continue to get SWU upgrades instead of using miles for free tickets.

I have not yet become desperate about using miles, but I am content with the path that has led me here. The only real problem that I will have is that I am a miser with my miles and am picky about how I spend them, but I haven't really had problems spending them to get what I want (so far).

being a meiser can be a good thing but yeah, doing it with miles is not really the same thing so I too would advise against it. That is, unless you have this far off plan to amass a certain large number to take the whole family to say, Fiji in first class in 3 years or something, and you need many miles to do so.

If you fly a lot for work then it's one thing, but if you are primarily a family or leisure flyer like me, then you need to save them up for trips and then burn them accordingly. I do like being able to just log on and book something, but generally in my immediate circles, we do have planning time anyway. Most of the friends and family have kids too, and so you get some time to figure out the best way to go. If I need miles, there are countless promos and even the use of my CC to get some. If I still do, I have friends, brothers, etc to trade with. I am currently NOT planning on the big trip to Fiji although I'd love to go some day. The baby is 11 months old. Some theories say that if I did want to take us all say when she's 5, I should start saving now. BUT who is to say that miles as we know it will still be here or opperate in the same way when she's 5? What if some other thing becomes more possible, and more practical? If so, should I have changed today's plans to fly tomorrow? Again, it's one thing with saving money, and it's a whole other thing with saving miles. THEY could just pull the plug any time! It's like baseball. You NEVER know what will really end up happening even if you predict it all and look at the stats.

:)MM

PS: Chinese proverb:

Baseball wrong. Man with four balls cannot walk. :D