Las Vegas - About the SLOTS

Anyone know where REAL information is available concerning how slots work?
I am familiar with most of the common cliches regarding the topic, but I sure am interested in the real story, that, perhaps, the casinos would rather I didn't know.

Casino's continue to replace their table games with slots because slots create the majority of their profits.

Here's a link to one site that thinks they have the slots figured out
http://wizardofodds.com/slots

If you google slot secrets you will get many similar sites to browse.

From the info I have read in various casino magazines and similar publications, the "secret" at winning in slots (except possibly video poker) is that there is no secrect--everything is controlled by a RNG (random number generator chip). Sometimes you might find that a machine suddenly gets "hot", the way to tell in advance is to lightly touch the machine, if you don't get burned it is not hot.:p

That's the cliche, allright. But, my experience is that they do get hot, and, more often, extremely cold, especially after a good hit. The latter event happens too often to be random, IMO.

Well, I played the slots (a lot of them) at the MGM Grand. My advice...when you hit....leave & go do something else! If nothing else, ensure you've enrolled the hotel's "Player's Club" program. I earned several free dinners, complimentary extra's and discounts.

Good luck! :cool:

Hit and quit for a while has been my best result, also. My only remaining con-cern is whether the player's card use limits your returns on the machines, them-selves. That's certainly within the capability of the machines. Any hard evidence?

That's the cliche, allright. But, my experience is that they do get hot, and, more often, extremely cold, especially after a good hit. The latter event happens too often to be random, IMO.

It's truly random. What you're noticing is simply noticeable -- which makes it memorable -- you don't notice all the times it *doesn't* happen that way.

People are constantly searching for patterns in what are essentially random acts, and slot machines are no different. That's how our brains are wired. We find patterns in the noise, but the patterns are just as random as the things that don't look like patterns. In any random set of data, there will be things that look like remarkable patterns -- "amazing coincidences." But the reality is that it's random and our brain just pulls out the patterns to help us make sense of it.

And slot machines are no different. Slot machine designers take advantage of this fact of human psychology. The design of all of the slot symbols is no accident. They're designed to make us notice patterns -- and to keep thinking how "close" something was to a match based on the similarity of the patterns. In reality, the symbols might as well be blank, because there's no significance to them. Getting four out of five 7's in a row is mathematically the same as getting one out of five 7's, but we get excited in the first case because we think we were "close," or maybe getting "closer." Everything about the slot machine -- the visuals and the sounds -- reinforces this, and it's no accident.

The random number generators are in no way affected by the presence of absence of Players Club cards. In fact, slot machines use a completely different microprocessor and hardware to manage the Players Club functionality. That hardware only sees "credits in," and doesn't even know the result of a spin.

But casinos don't mind if people think there are "hot" machines or if people have rituals they perform for luck, etc. -- because the cold, hard facts of statistics aren't that exciting and if people only thought sensibly about the statistics, few people would gamble. So casinos are happy to oblige; one example of this is how they have the number boards that show what numbers and colors have hit on roulette wheel the past dozen or so spins. Those numbers are completely, statistically meaningless -- roulette spins are memoryless, meaning the current spin is not affected in any way by the result of prior spins. If red hits 20 times in a row, it is just as likely to hit on the 21st spin as black. But people like to find patterns, and instinctively think that the numbers are compelled to balance out, so the casino is happy to put the number history up if that makes people more emotionally vested in the gambling.

It's truly random. What you're noticing is simply noticeable -- which makes it memorable -- you don't notice all the times it *doesn't* happen that way.

People are constantly searching for patterns in what are essentially random acts, and slot machines are no different. That's how our brains are wired. We find patterns in the noise, but the patterns are just as random as the things that don't look like patterns. In any random set of data, there will be things that look like remarkable patterns -- "amazing coincidences." But the reality is that it's random and our brain just pulls out the patterns to help us make sense of it.

And slot machines are no different. Slot machine designers take advantage of this fact of human psychology. The design of all of the slot symbols is no accident. They're designed to make us notice patterns -- and to keep thinking how "close" something was to a match based on the similarity of the patterns. In reality, the symbols might as well be blank, because there's no significance to them. Getting four out of five 7's in a row is mathematically the same as getting one out of five 7's, but we get excited in the first case because we think we were "close," or maybe getting "closer." Everything about the slot machine -- the visuals and the sounds -- reinforces this, and it's no accident.

The random number generators are in no way affected by the presence of absence of Players Club cards. In fact, slot machines use a completely different microprocessor and hardware to manage the Players Club functionality. That hardware only sees "credits in," and doesn't even know the result of a spin.

But casinos don't mind if people think there are "hot" machines or if people have rituals they perform for luck, etc. -- because the cold, hard facts of statistics aren't that exciting and if people only thought sensibly about the statistics, few people would gamble. So casinos are happy to oblige; one example of this is how they have the number boards that show what numbers and colors have hit on roulette wheel the past dozen or so spins. Those numbers are completely, statistically meaningless -- roulette spins are memoryless, meaning the current spin is not affected in any way by the result of prior spins. If red hits 20 times in a row, it is just as likely to hit on the 21st spin as black. But people like to find patterns, and instinctively think that the numbers are compelled to balance out, so the casino is happy to put the number history up if that makes people more emotionally vested in the gambling.

Thanks for the joy kill. Now how am I supposed to throw my retirement away knowing that I am not really "close" to hitting triple 7's? :( Jk. But really what you said is totally true and needed to be said.

I was in a video poker tournament, when, before we started, the people around me were lamenting that their machine wasn't a "hot machine". I was explaining probabilty and lack of memory of random events -- they weren't buying. Idiots. No wonder I won $2000.

[QUOTE=scott1212;7080719]It's truly random. What you're noticing is simply noticeable -- which makes it memorable -- you don't notice all the times it *doesn't* happen that way.

You're saying I don't notice that it is still random. I'm saying I do notice that it is no longer random.

[QUOTE=scott1212;7080719]It's truly random. What you're noticing is simply noticeable -- which makes it memorable -- you don't notice all the times it *doesn't* happen that way.

You're saying I don't notice that it is still random. I'm saying I do notice that it is no longer random.

In random data, you EXPECT to see sequences of data that don't look random at all, including consistent patterns. It may be counterintuitive, but if you didn't see those patterns, the data wouldn't really be random! I think you are equating random with "completely irregular." But in fact that's not random. Data's not really random unless it doesn't look random at times. (I know, my head is starting to spin too.)

A couple years ago, Apple had to change the "shuffle" algorithm on the iPod to make it LESS random because people didn't think it was random enough. Mathematically, the expectation is high that you'll hear the same song two or three times in a row now and then, even if you have a lot of songs and are shuffling randomly among them. But if you have one thousand songs and hear the same one twice in a row, intuitively you think it's not random at all. So Apple adjusted the algorithm, making it LESS random by minimizing the chance of those TRULY random artifacts from happening. They did this by reducing the chance that a song is played if it has recently been played. That makes the algorithm completely unrandom, but to people, the result will seem more random.

You are noticing patterns. In random data you expect to have noticeable patterns. That doesn't change the fact that the data is still random.

Here's another example of this paradox in play. If you gather 23 complete, random strangers together in a room, what are the chances that at least two of the strangers will have the exact same birthday? Mathematically, the chance is more than 50%. But that doesn't seem intuitive to us: after all, there's only 23 people, but 365 days. I'd bet that most people, upon discovering that two people had the same birthday, would consider it an amazing coincidence. It's not. It would be more of a coincidence if two people DIDN'T have the same birthday! (If the number rises to 60 random people in a room, statistically there is a greater than 99% chance that at least two will have the same birthday.)

The only thing that is not random about slot machines is that the algorithm is adjusted to, over time, pay back a certain percent of the take-in in an adjustable way. Within that constraint, the manner in which the slot machine does it is completely random. A lot of math, research, engineering and regulation guarantees that. The beauty of statistics is that even in random data, we will see things that we swear aren't random at all because they're such an "amazing coincidence." And that's part of what makes slot machines addicting. If the manufacturers adjusted the algorithms to *appear* more random by in fact being *less* random (like Apple did with the iPod), that would decrease the fun of slot machines because you would no longer have those hot or cold runs that make slot machines exciting. Mathematically, in random data you expect hot and cold runs and every other possibility of pattern or non-pattern, over time, at some time.

One other thing to keep in mind is that even if the slots weren't run by a RNG (which they are), one person is too small a sample size to notice a pattern. Don't worry, the Nevada Gaming Commission has a pretty tight leash on these guys! :)

Mike

Regarding randomness of slots:

I have lived here long enough to have some amazing examples. A woman I worked with hit a Royal Flush on a machine. While waiting for the payout, she played the machine next to her and hit another Royal!

I have personally seen people hit very large jackpots twice in a row on the same machine.

Another guy I know hit four Royal Flushes on video poker machines in less than two hours!

And rumor has it, some people don't win a damned thing for days/months/years in a row.

Seems pretty random to me.

As an actuary I'm quite familiar with the probability side of all this but I was still quite surprised when I hit 4 queens twice in a row while playing video poker last time I was in LV. Double bonus too. :)

As for the slots, one thing you can control is where you play. I've read in Las Vegas Advisor about studies showing which casinos have higher payout rates on slots. I don't have the list handy now but the big expensive strip casinos paid out less on average than some of the more sedate locals joints. Of course you'd have to play a lot (as some locals might) to notice the difference. For one weekend in Sin City I don't know that it would make too much difference.

Or you can stick with video poker where you can analyze the pay schedules and determine which machines are a better play.

My experience with video poker is very limited-I've delved a little but found it boring, with not much chance for a big payout. Played one machine where 4
of a kind payed like 2 to 1. I know I must be missing something because they
proliferate in all the casinos. Guess I need some advice as to which kind of machines are worth the effort. I know the payouts must be good, because the comp rates on them is much lower than regular slots. Any advice?

Regarding randomness of slots:

I have lived here long enough to have some amazing examples. A woman I worked with hit a Royal Flush on a machine. While waiting for the payout, she played the machine next to her and hit another Royal!

I have personally seen people hit very large jackpots twice in a row on the same machine.

Another guy I know hit four Royal Flushes on video poker machines in less than two hours!

And rumor has it, some people don't win a damned thing for days/months/years in a row.

Seems pretty random to me.
Interesting, but I'm not sure you can extrapolate that to the regular slots.
I have 100's of hours experience on them and have not noted that happening. Pretty small sample I admit.

My experience with video poker is very limited-I've delved a little but found it boring, with not much chance for a big payout. Played one machine where 4
of a kind payed like 2 to 1. I know I must be missing something because they
proliferate in all the casinos. Guess I need some advice as to which kind of machines are worth the effort. I know the payouts must be good, because the comp rates on them is much lower than regular slots. Any advice?

The video poker game of choice for locals is called Double Double Video Poker.

On a standard video poker game, you get the same amount if you hit four of a kind anything - perhaps a bit more if it is Aces.

On Double Double machines, for a maximum play of 5 coins, you get:
400 coins for four 2's, or four 3's, or four 4's. If your fifth card is an Ace, or one of the remaining 2, 3 or 4 cards, you get 800 coins! (That extra bonus card is called a "kicker")
With four Aces, you get 800 coins, but if you get the "kicker" as well, that jumps up to 2000 coins!
Believe it or not, getting that "kicker" happens often enough to make it the favorite game of locals.

The major downside of Double Double is that you get the same return from one pair of Jacks or better as you do with two pair. So you have to use some different strategy when playing...for instance, if you get two Aces and two fives drawn to you, most locals would only keep the Aces - hoping for two more Aces (and perhaps the kicker) rather than keeping all four cards and shooting for the less profitable full house.

The best rule of thumb for finding the best video poker machines is to see how much you get for a full house. 45 coins is excellent (there are a few machines that pay 50, but rare to find) and 40 is good, but 35 is not such a great deal.

Without meaning to sound sexist, many local women prefer playing Deuces Wild (some local men as well) and they seem to do quite well at it. Again, it takes a different strategy when playing, but those who prefer the game claim they can play Deuces Wild for a longer time and keep winning a little bit, allowing them a longer play time chance to hit something bigger.

Almost no locals play standard Video Poker...and keep an eye out for those progressive video poker machines! Some of those jackpots get really high (even for nickels and quarters) and the first hint is to see swarms of people playing at those banks of machines.

The video poker game of choice for locals is called Double Double Video Poker.

If you are referring to 9/6 Double Double Bonus Poker; the expected return (ER) is 98.98% but the variance is 41.98; which makes it a risky game.

Some games are have a postive ER; but you always have to weigh the variance of a given game (since the higher the variance the higher the volatility).

That being said, Loose Deuces Wild has a Variance of 70.70 and a ER of 100.15%; but a much safer game is 8/5 Bonus Poker with an ER of 99.17% and a variance of 20.90.

Probably the biggest complaint is finding the full pay machines in the denomination that you want on the strip --- but, in all cases, the ER on the worst video poker is much much better than slots (which can have an ER in the low 80% range) -- that is why the casinos give you fewer comps for VP play (in comparison to reel slot play).

Of course, the above VP numbers assume you are playing perfectly, which folks seldom do --- especially with some of the more esoteric games.

My suggestion would be to learn one strategy well (like 9/6 JoB which works well for 8/5 BP) and stick to that; and learn to identify the good full pay machines (which are often right next to the short pay (bad) machines).

My experience with video poker is very limited-I've delved a little but found it boring, with not much chance for a big payout. Played one machine where 4
of a kind payed like 2 to 1. I know I must be missing something because they
proliferate in all the casinos. Guess I need some advice as to which kind of machines are worth the effort. I know the payouts must be good, because the comp rates on them is much lower than regular slots. Any advice?

It can definitely be a bit boring for some people.

One thing to keep in mind is that VP machines are very strictly regulated in terms of using a "virtual" deck of cards. Therefore, VP machines make their margins by changing the payout. A common type of VP machine is a 9/6 Jacks or Better, where a full house pays 9 and a flush pays 6. Many casinos, though, particularly on the low-denom machines, "short" the machines, with a full house paying 8 and a flush paying 5, bringing your percentage down from 99.5% to just over 97%. It may not seem like a lot, but those few percentage points will have a drastic impact on how long you play.

One of the above posters mentioned Las Vegas Advisor, to which I also subscribe. Through LVA, I bought "cheat sheet" index cards, which give you the mathematically correct move to make for any situation on several types of VP machines, as well as the pay schedules you should look for. They're worth the $10 or so that they will cost you.

Mike

But casinos don't mind if people think there are "hot" machines or if people have rituals they perform for luck, etc. -- because the cold, hard facts of statistics aren't that exciting and if people only thought sensibly about the statistics, few people would gamble. So casinos are happy to oblige; one example of this is how they have the number boards that show what numbers and colors have hit on roulette wheel the past dozen or so spins. Those numbers are completely, statistically meaningless -- roulette spins are memoryless, meaning the current spin is not affected in any way by the result of prior spins. If red hits 20 times in a row, it is just as likely to hit on the 21st spin as black. But people like to find patterns, and instinctively think that the numbers are compelled to balance out, so the casino is happy to put the number history up if that makes people more emotionally vested in the gambling.

Excellent analysis. I can give a first hand account. My last trip to Vegas, while playing roulette, the double zero hits. (of course AFTER, I had removed my chips). The next spin...double zero hits again. The third spin...you guessed it, double zero again. Finally on the 4th spin...double zeros !
At this point people are going crazy....the dealer insists that in his 20 plus years, he has never seen it hit 4 times in a row. Folks from other tables come flocking over...and all of a sudden, hundred dollar bills are being placed on the double zero. (There must have been over 3k on that number alone).
On the next spin....the ball bounces out of the double zero slot...and lands on another number.
Patrons walk away unhappy...and the pit boss has a huge grin on his face.

[QUOTE=standby my man;7082223]
that would decrease the fun of slot machines because you would no longer have those hot or cold runs that make slot machines exciting

In my gambling adventures I have experienced a few exciting hot runs, but never, ever an exciting cold run... :p

I used to really like playing slots but obviously usually walked away in the red. For my last trip to LV, I decided that I'd try out VP and found it more enjoyable than the plain jane slots. Some of the funkier slots with the extra features are kind of fun though.

My comments and experiences as a beginning VP player:
- I only had a few weeks before my trip so I decided to learn only one version. I chose JoB to keep it simple so I didn't have to remember other complexities.
- Practiced using a free online java version so I could build my speed when playing basic hands
- Printed a mini-strategy guide to take with me for ambiguous hands. Didn't have to whip it excessively but no one seemed to bat an eye when I did.
- Have to play max coins of course at a rate you can handle (quarters for me).
- Free slot credits are good for VP machines too.
- Finding full pay JoB was pretty difficult. (Found a slew at the Hilton.) Ended up playing as low as 9/5 or 8/6 (I think??) on occasion. Found wide ranges of pay rates when walking through a casino so choose carefully.

The result: Had some luck and ended up ahead by about $300 for under 10 hours of play, over three days, at multiple locations. I did play some slots and had a little luck but it wasn't as fun anymore. I'm definitely a converted VP player.

The Hilton does indeed have a nice selection of decent video poker in the sportsbook area. It never ceases to amaze me to see all of the people playing VP in the adjoining main casino where the pay schedules are almost all inferior to the sportsbook.

... So you have to use some different strategy when playing...for instance, if you get two Aces and two fives drawn to you, most locals would only keep the Aces - hoping for two more Aces (and perhaps the kicker) rather than keeping all four cards and shooting for the less profitable full house.



Anyone who knows any math would know to keep the two aces and discard the other pair. Never keep the kicker.

In fact, in DDBVP, if you draw a full house aces over any pair, dump the other pair -- your expected payback is better.

[QUOTE=scott1212;7082476]

In my gambling adventures I have experienced a few exciting hot runs, but never, ever an exciting cold run... :p

Fair point. :)

I guess the cold runs make the hot runs more exciting, then. ;)

Just for the info, the odds of 4 00's in a row is 1/38 to the 4th power-1 in
2,085,136, so it's not surprising that the dealer has never seen it happen.

I don't understand why the slot return is set so much lower. What are the casinos thinking? I know it's Vegas, but the Peppermill in Reno advertises
99% return on slots, and, as someone mentioned, the regulators have pretty
strong oversight.

I don't understand why the slot return is set so much lower. What are the casinos thinking? I know it's Vegas, but the Peppermill in Reno advertises
99% return on slots, and, as someone mentioned, the regulators have pretty
strong oversight.

Do they advertise that ALL their slots are 99%? Usually, most casinos (especially off-the-Strip) have certain banks of machines with payouts of 99% and even 100%...but that doesn't mean ALL of the machines in that bank of slots. It means one, maybe two of the machines are set to pay out that high percentage (good luck at figuring out which machine it is)...but even that doesn't mean you will win every single time...for instance, if someone just hit a large jackpot, that machine might get very tight until the payout is back to an even 100% and no longer in the minus %...so you could be feeding your money (and still lose) in the loosest of machines, in order to make up for the recent payout(s).

DM, please forget that part of my comment - it was totally dumb. I have seen where overall payout is near top for the Peppermill and substantially
better than the strip proper. But, why do the regular slots pay out so much
less than most of the poker? I guess they figure the innocent suckers will
play them.

DM, please forget that part of my comment - it was totally dumb. I have seen where overall payout is near top for the Peppermill and substantially
better than the strip proper. But, why do the regular slots pay out so much
less than most of the poker? I guess they figure the innocent suckers will
play them.

FWIW, the Nevada Gaming Commission categorizes VP a "game of skill", and slots a "game of chance", and as such they are subject to different rules regarding payouts and winning percentages. It's kind of interesting, kind of weird, definately a Las Vegas "thing". The exact details escape me right now, but we can google it to get the details!

I remember now! As a game of skill, the odds of winning at VP are required by law to be the same, whether you wager a nickel, a quarter or a dollar.

As a game of chance, casinos are allowed to vary the odds of winning according to the wager: $.05 cent slots 70% payout, $.25 85% payout, $1.00 slots 94% $5.00 slots 99% payout, etc, for example: basically, whatever they want.

Good Luck!!!

www.wizardofodds.com is a great site that will tell you more than you ever wanted to know about the probabilities built into all of the casino games, including several versions of VP. There are also online java games that will correct you if you make a bad play.

Do they advertise that ALL their slots are 99%? Usually, most casinos (especially off-the-Strip) have certain banks of machines with payouts of 99% and even 100%...but that doesn't mean ALL of the machines in that bank of slots. It means one, maybe two of the machines are set to pay out that high percentage (good luck at figuring out which machine it is)...but even that doesn't mean you will win every single time...

Usualy advertisements for "99% slots" and the like have little asterisks that say in small type, certain machines only. If a machine or a bank of machines has a sign advertising a certain percentage, the casino is required to offer that percentage at every machine so marked. But: 1) Slots are random and you could lose even on a 101% machine. 2) The public doesn't care about percentages. Go to any casino where 99% or even 101+% slots are offered and you will find the specially marked machines sitting empty.

If someone just hit a large jackpot, that machine might get very tight until the payout is back to an even 100% and no longer in the minus %...so you could be feeding your money (and still lose) in the loosest of machines, in order to make up for the recent payout(s).

Baloney. Your chances of winning are the same on every pull of the handle or punch of the button and this does not vary, except for the amount of the progressive jackpot if any, depending on whether someone recently hit a jackpot on that machine.

Baloney. Your chances of winning are the same on every pull of the handle or punch of the button and this does not vary, except for the amount of the progressive jackpot if any, depending on whether someone recently hit a jackpot on that machine.[/QUOTE]

Assuming you are playing one of those 99% slots, that means they pay back 99% of what is put in. So, technically, you are correct - you could have a machine hit two or more jackpots in a short period...but 99% means just that - the machine cannot, by definition, pay out forever...somebody is going to have to feed this "loose" slot in order for others to win. Otherwise they would advertise them as 200% payouts, or 1000% payout machines. The machine is not going to keep popping up with jackpots forever, ergo, you can be the schmuck who plays the loosest slot in town and still not win diddle squat.

If you are referring to 9/6 Double Double Bonus Poker; the expected return (ER) is 98.98% but the variance is 41.98; which makes it a risky game.

Some games are have a postive ER; but you always have to weigh the variance of a given game (since the higher the variance the higher the volatility).

That being said, Loose Deuces Wild has a Variance of 70.70 and a ER of 100.15%; but a much safer game is 8/5 Bonus Poker with an ER of 99.17% and a variance of 20.90.

Probably the biggest complaint is finding the full pay machines in the denomination that you want on the strip --- but, in all cases, the ER on the worst video poker is much much better than slots (which can have an ER in the low 80% range) -- that is why the casinos give you fewer comps for VP play (in comparison to reel slot play).

Of course, the above VP numbers assume you are playing perfectly, which folks seldom do --- especially with some of the more esoteric games.

My suggestion would be to learn one strategy well (like 9/6 JoB which works well for 8/5 BP) and stick to that; and learn to identify the good full pay machines (which are often right next to the short pay (bad) machines).
Where do the ER stats come from, and do they give specific casino figures?

Assuming you are playing one of those 99% slots, that means they pay back 99% of what is put in. So, technically, you are correct - you could have a machine hit two or more jackpots in a short period...but 99% means just that - the machine cannot, by definition, pay out forever...somebody is going to have to feed this "loose" slot in order for others to win. Otherwise they would advertise them as 200% payouts, or 1000% payout machines. The machine is not going to keep popping up with jackpots forever, ergo, you can be the schmuck who plays the loosest slot in town and still not win diddle squat.

Statistics are over the long-haul. Replace the slot machine with a pair of dice. The game is bet $10. If you roll snake-eyes, you win $360, otherwise you win $0. That game has a 100% payoff. If you roll snake-eyes and win $360, what are the chances you will roll it again on the next try? Exactly the same as the previous try... that doesn't mean the payoff is 200%.

Where do the ER stats come from, and do they give specific casino figures?

The stats are based on the pay tables; so there would be no variation from Casino to Casino IF it was the same game with the same paytable (and they are Class III games with RNG). The only way properties "screw" you at VP is to make the machines "short pay" i.e. they modify the pay tables.

So a 9/6 JoB game with an ER of 99.54% has a 1 coin Paytable of 1-2-3-4-6-9-25-50-250
an an 8/5 JoB game with an ER of 97.30% has a 1 coin Paytable of
1-2-3-4-5-8-25-50-250

and there are other varieties of paytables above and below these percentages depending on additional variations to the paytables.

You can't know the ER without knowing the probability of each category of payoffs. So, who gave you the ER percentages and are they necessarily valid?

Baccarat-brilliant analysis. If one did roll snake eyes again it sure wouldn't mean a 200% payoff - $370 wagered and $720 returned ain't 200%. It was a cool example, though. You probably impressed someone. You make believe probability experts mostly ain't.
But, in your example the payout is almost 200% based on those rolls. Not likely to stay at that with more rolls,
obviously.

You can't know the ER without knowing the probability of each category of payoffs. So, who gave you the ER percentages and are they necessarily valid?

you are very doubting... :D

anyway, Michael S. The Wizard of Odds (http://wizardofodds.com/jacksorbetter/simple.html) does a good job presenting
probability and return of each hand under optimal (99.54%) and simple strategy for 9/6 JoB on a full pay machine.

Of course, you could always run the numbers to verify the above. :D

You can't know the ER without knowing the probability of each category of payoffs. So, who gave you the ER percentages and are they necessarily valid?

Video Poker is dealt from a standard 52 card deck - just as if there was a human dealer with a deck of cards instead of a video screen in front of you. Knowing this, you can figure out the probability of every possible hand. As this is WAY beyond my statistical ability, I'll rely on the experts there. This is where wizardofodds comes in. Here is his analysis: http://wizardofodds.com/videopoker/tables/jacksorbetter.html

The casinos cannot change the probabilities in a VP machine, well at least not legally. The modify their expected profit by reducing the pay table. As noted above a 9/6 machine is the best for Jacks or Better at 99.54% return to the player - assuming perfect strategy. You are NOT going to find this machine at a strip casino that needs to pay for volcanoes, white tigers, giant fountains and so on. They will probably have 8/5 at best. I notice the games built into the bar are often even worse at 7/5 - I guess they assume you are taking more "free" drinks sitting at the bar. Will you find 9/6 at places that cater to the locals and want to attract the more serious gamblers.

On slots, only the casino knows the expected return. Here is a great explanation of how the probability is determined. http://wizardofodds.com/slots Towards the bottom you will find a link to a ranking (several years old) of experiments showing which Vegas casinos have the loosest slots. I believe this was based on actual play, not analysis of the probability tables which are confidential to the casino.

It seems to be very hard for most people to accept that slots do use a RNG and each pull of the handle has the exact same odds as the pull before.

The majority of slot players want to believe and I think need to believe that they will find a "hot" machine and make a killing. While it is possible that they could win a jackpot or two or three in sequence, the probability of it happening is slim.

This small chance to win is what keeps the slot players sitting for hours in front of a machine until their money is gone. And this is also why the casino's can spend billions of dollars enlarging their hotels and creating larger areas for slot players.

As noted above a 9/6 machine is the best for Jacks or Better at 99.54% return to the player - assuming perfect strategy. You are NOT going to find this machine at a strip casino that needs to pay for volcanoes, white tigers, giant fountains and so on. They will probably have 8/5 at best. I notice the games built into the bar are often even worse at 7/5 - I guess they assume you are taking more "free" drinks sitting at the bar.

actually, you will find it on the strip ;)

Currently (and this can change overnight) you still have some at :
Caesars ($1/$2/$5 MG/MD TITO slant tops in the high limit palace court)
Paris at the $5/10/$25 level (and also at Bally's at this denomination)
Wynn Las Vegas has a lot from 25 cent Spin Poker Deluxe and MG/MD/TITO from 25c/50c/$1 --- almost too much to mention
Venetian also has 9/6 at the $1 and $5 level.

Yes, you will definitely find more at the locals places --- such as Gold Coast and Palms; but, there are limited selection of playable games on the strip. Unfortunately, the full pay and short pay machines are often in the same banks --- so, you really need to check very carefully.

The Hard Rock also has some full-pay VP machines -- you just elect to forego comps on those. You need to figure the value of comps into the ER.

I don't understand why the slot return is set so much lower. What are the casinos thinking? I know it's Vegas, but the Peppermill in Reno advertises
99% return on slots, and, as someone mentioned, the regulators have pretty
strong oversight.



Only some machines pay back 99%.

That being said, say EVERY machine paid back 99% all the time.

You give me $100, I give you $99.

Rinse, repeate. I win

Only some machines pay back 99%.

That being said, say EVERY machine paid back 99% all the time.

You give me $100, I give you $99.

Rinse, repeate. I win

Don't forget the multi-line machines where you're betting a set bet (call it a dollar) on each of 5 lines. On the nickle machines, you can bet a nickle on each of 21 lines. I think I even saw a 40-line machine but can't recall... anyway, if you hit on one line and the payout is 4:1, you get $4 but it still cost you $5 to pull the handle. The gap is much wider on the smallest bet machines--- nickles and pennies--- but a lot harder to spot because you can bet multiple lines AND bet multiple coins per line. Bet 21x a nickle on a 9-line machine and you've got to be very lucky to break even.

Statistics are over the long-haul.

Thank you opus17, that is exactly what I was trying to say, but you phrased it perfectly. On those 99% (or even 100%) payout slots, people assume they cannot lose, ever!

If you have a nice bankroll, plenty of time, and are absolutely certain you are sitting at one of those slots, you will indeed notice the high return over time. But if you only have a limited amount of money to play, and limited time to play, you can just as easily lose your money even on a 100% payout machines.

Thank you opus17, that is exactly what I was trying to say, but you phrased it perfectly. On those 99% (or even 100%) payout slots, people assume they cannot lose, ever!

If you have a nice bankroll, plenty of time, and are absolutely certain you are sitting at one of those slots, you will indeed notice the high return over time. But if you only have a limited amount of money to play, and limited time to play, you can just as easily lose your money even on a 100% payout machines.

And be sure to remember that probability has no "memory" -- if you sat at a 100% payout machine for 3 hours and get 0% back, the same machine (or any other machine with the same pay table) will not "know" that and pay you 200% over the next 3 hours. On the other hand, if you just hit a royal flush, you have just a good of a chance on the next play to hit another one (i.e., not very good).

I understand what a random number generator will do. Do you know that the machines can not kick in a non-random number generator at times? That would enable the machines to give bigger single payoffs while maintaining the overall payoff percentage. Give the crowd more thrills, so to speak. I know your answer.

I understand what a random number generator will do. Do you know that the machines can not kick in a non-random number generator at times? That would enable the machines to give bigger single payoffs while maintaining the overall payoff percentage. Give the crowd more thrills, so to speak. I know your answer.

I don't see how a single "non random" event will generate more thrills. Someone will hit that 10 million dollar megabucks jackpot at some point, and be thrilled. Are you implying that the casino should make it hit at 7 pm on a Saturday when they are more crowded so that they get better marketing? While it is probably possible to program a machine to do it, it would be against Nevada law. Why risk your casino license? Casinos have no need to cheat. The odds are always in their favor.

I don't see how a single "non random" event will generate more thrills. Someone will hit that 10 million dollar megabucks jackpot at some point, and be thrilled. Are you implying that the casino should make it hit at 7 pm on a Saturday when they are more crowded so that they get better marketing? While it is probably possible to program a machine to do it, it would be against Nevada law. Why risk your casino license? Casinos have no need to cheat. The odds are always in their favor.
Let me explain it, then. A machine can generate more thrills by paying an inordinate amount of bigger winners, balanced out by a scarcity of smaller winners. The machine makers have also been reprimanded for the proliferation
of "near winners", where the big jackpot is only one spot off, giving the appearance of almost hitting. To buy the totally random concept is beyond
my trust. You other guys just accept it without question, apparently.

The gaming commission in Nevada is so strict that - yes, I accept without question that the advertised win percentages are correct.

The gaming commission was not always in control of the casinos. I hate to admit how old I am - but.........

Years ago when I was just 21 or 22 I played Blackjack downtown - not really knowing how. The dealer told me every move to make and I won huge. Huge for me unfortunately was based on the fact that I was playing $2.00 hands. The dealer I am sure had fun practicing dealing from the bottom or top of the deck or whatever he was doing to help me win. This type of thing just doesn't happen any more.

I know nothing about this, but had always believed that the machines were not random, but often gave the impression you were 'close' e.g. first two reels show the jackpot, and the third something else, to keep people hooked...

Nonsense?

I know nothing about this, but had always believed that the machines were not random, but often gave the impression you were 'close' e.g. first two reels show the jackpot, and the third something else, to keep people hooked...

Nonsense?
Not nonsense at all-that is prevalent. Some of it has been banned by the regulators but the machine makers still find ways to do it.

The gaming commission in Nevada is so strict that - yes, I accept without question that the advertised win percentages are correct.

The gaming commission was not always in control of the casinos. I hate to admit how old I am - but.........

Years ago when I was just 21 or 22 I played Blackjack downtown - not really knowing how. The dealer told me every move to make and I won huge. Huge for me unfortunately was based on the fact that I was playing $2.00 hands. The dealer I am sure had fun practicing dealing from the bottom or top of the deck or whatever he was doing to help me win. This type of thing just doesn't happen any more.
I did not say the win percentages were not adherred to-why did you assume
that? I just maintain that the occurences are not completely random. If you believe the rng story, there is never a reason to leave a machine because it can't be cold. So a machine can give you a good win and quickly gain it all back, plus, by having you stick to the same machine.

I know nothing about this, but had always believed that the machines were not random, but often gave the impression you were 'close' e.g. first two reels show the jackpot, and the third something else, to keep people hooked...

Nonsense?
But randomness will do that for you. If there were 10 items on a reel, the "near jackpot" on the last wheel would happen 9 times as much as the real jackpot.

But randomness will do that for you. If there were 10 items on a reel, the "near jackpot" on the last wheel would happen 9 times as much as the real jackpot.
That's not what was banned - showing the winner as only one off from the actual is what was frowned on. You can see more than just the actual pay window-frequently showing the needed figure immediately above and below was the deceit.

Yes that is my point, only two items, are 'near' the jackpot...

Yes that is my point, only two items, are 'near' the jackpot...
My point is that on machines like Wheel of Fortune, almost 1/2 the time a SPIN bonus will show above or below the pay line. There are many SPIN bonus slots on the reel but only one is actually active. The others are for show.

If you believe the rng story, there is never a reason to leave a machine because it can't be cold. So a machine can give you a good win and quickly gain it all back, plus, by having you stick to the same machine.

RNG is a fact - not a story. Yes, you can sit at one machine and have the same luck or lack of luck with every pull of the handle.

Did you read the explanation of how slot machines work at this site? http://wizardofodds.com/slots

RNG is a fact - not a story. Yes, you can sit at one machine and have the same luck or lack of luck with every pull of the handle.

Did you read the explanation of how slot machines work at this site? http://wizardofodds.com/slots
I don't believe everything I read. Maybe the wizard doesn't manufacture slots,
and is relaying what he or she was told.

RNG is a fact - not a story. Yes, you can sit at one machine and have the same luck or lack of luck with every pull of the handle.

Did you read the explanation of how slot machines work at this site? http://wizardofodds.com/slots
Try this: get a pencil and pad and start recording the results you are getting on a slot machine. See if you are noticed by the casino. Than ask
what advantage you could possibly achieve by recording RANDOM results.

I don't believe everything I read. Maybe the wizard doesn't manufacture slots,
and is relaying what he or she was told.

Fair enough. Unfortuanately, that means that people here may be unable to help you. The casinos are too big and have too many regulators to mess with the slots. Besides, given the amount of money they make off the slots, they don't need to.

Try this: get a pencil and pad and start recording the results you are getting on a slot machine. See if you are noticed by the casino. Than ask
what advantage you could possibly achieve by recording RANDOM results.

Outside of the curiosity factor, they won't care. In fact, they may prefer that you do so. Roulette betting went up significantly after the casinos started listing the numbers that had previously won, since players thought they could detect patterns. Outside of a tilted wheel or a dealer with a particular throw, though, roulette is also totally random.

The mathematical (and real-world) naivete displayed here is astonishing. Get it through your head: ALL THE SPINS ARE RANDOM!!!

The mathematical (and real-world) naivete displayed here is astonishing. Get it through your head: ALL THE SPINS ARE RANDOM!!!
According to the "Wizard of Odds"? Encarta gives one definition of wizard
as: Male Witch: a man who is supposed to have magical or wonder-working
powers. And, who designated this guy a "wizard"-he himself? Get it through your head-you sure are naive if you believe everything you are told.

According to the "Wizard of Odds"? Encarta gives one definition of wizard
as: Male Witch: a man who is supposed to have magical or wonder-working
powers. And, who designated this guy a "wizard"-he himself? Get it through your head-you sure are naive if you believe everything you are told.

I do however believe what I am told when many sources say the same thing. I feel no need to research and quote a number of sources when the "wizard" has explained it so well. Do a google search. Ask the gambling commission. You will find that every spin is as random as the last and as random as the next.

Good Luck at the slots.

According to the "Wizard of Odds"? Encarta gives one definition of wizard
as: Male Witch: a man who is supposed to have magical or wonder-working
powers. And, who designated this guy a "wizard"-he himself? Get it through your head-you sure are naive if you believe everything you are told.

Um, okay. Look, I think you're in the wrong place. You've been given the correct answer. You don't believe it. I'm cool with that. But people here aren't going to change their minds because you have a conspiracy theory. Good luck on the slots!

Mike

According to the "Wizard of Odds"? Encarta gives one definition of wizard
as: Male Witch: a man who is supposed to have magical or wonder-working
powers. And, who designated this guy a "wizard"-he himself? Get it through your head-you sure are naive if you believe everything you are told.

Why in the world would a casino want a non-random slot machine? The last thing they need is an insider posting what observed pattern means a jackpot is near.

Your conspiracy theory doesn't make any sense for the customer (the casinos).

I agree with, mikeef and opus 17; I'm not really sure what you (standby my man) are looking for.

If you are looking for loopholes, these are very rare; and quite frankly most errors get shut down right away. If anyone does know of some, they would be foolish to post that type of information for numerous reasons. Even keen video poker players are reluctant to post and/or share errors involving cash back or promotions that are flawed; since doing this is the fastest way to get the machine removed or the flaw shut down.

Too bad you didn't come to Caesars Indiana (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14187448/) this past summer; I remember discussing this with some folks in the DL at Caesars Indiana shortly after the fiasco.

Good LUCK in your slot quest !

BTW, in case you were interested, just a few details about the Wizard :
The Wizard of Odds is Michael Shackleford, A.S.A., a professional actuary who has made a career of analyzing casino games. He runs the numbers on new games for casinos and game developers and has helped design many of the popular slot machines on the Internet. He is currently an Adjunct Professor of Casino Math at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, a former contributing editor to Casino Player magazine, and the author of the book Gambling 102, recently published by Huntington Press. The Wizard's landmark research into the actual returns of slot machines on the Las Vegas strip garnered international attention in 2002, and he has appeared numerous times on national television as a recognized expert on gambling strategy.

I still laugh when I remember when I hit a 7-7-7 for about a $400 payout at the LAS airport and some drunk fool came up to me asking what my strategy was...

he didn't get it when I explained my strategy usually involves walking past the slots and VP machines.

According to the "Wizard of Odds"? Encarta gives one definition of wizard
as: Male Witch: a man who is supposed to have magical or wonder-working
powers. And, who designated this guy a "wizard"-he himself? Get it through your head-you sure are naive if you believe everything you are told.

I am also a member of several other message boards, and there, a definition of a "troll" is someone who goes on message boards will the sole purpose of being belligerent and antagonizing to the other members of the board.

Trolls are often banned from message boards as they don't get the concept; treat other posters with respect and you get respect in turn.

I agree with, mikeef and opus 17; I'm not really sure what you (standby my man) are looking for.

If you are looking for loopholes, these are very rare; and quite frankly most errors get shut down right away. If anyone does know of some, they would be foolish to post that type of information for numerous reasons. Even keen video poker players are reluctant to post and/or share errors involving cash back or promotions that are flawed; since doing this is the fastest way to get the machine removed or the flaw shut down.

Too bad you didn't come to Caesars Indiana (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14187448/) this past summer; I remember discussing this with some folks in the DL at Caesars Indiana shortly after the fiasco.

Good LUCK in your slot quest !

BTW, in case you were interested, just a few details about the Wizard :
The Wizard of Odds is Michael Shackleford, A.S.A., a professional actuary who has made a career of analyzing casino games. He runs the numbers on new games for casinos and game developers and has helped design many of the popular slot machines on the Internet. He is currently an Adjunct Professor of Casino Math at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, a former contributing editor to Casino Player magazine, and the author of the book Gambling 102, recently published by Huntington Press. The Wizard's landmark research into the actual returns of slot machines on the Las Vegas strip garnered international attention in 2002, and he has appeared numerous times on national television as a recognized expert on gambling strategy.

Impressive credentials

My point is that on machines like Wheel of Fortune, almost 1/2 the time a SPIN bonus will show above or below the pay line. There are many SPIN bonus slots on the reel but only one is actually active. The others are for show.

Actually if you check out the slots page referenced, it explains that the reel stops are more or less for show. The casino can (and does) make it look like you "almost won" as the psychological aspect to keep you playing.

From the wizard: For example consider the following mapping table that takes a random integer from 0 to 127 and maps it to one of 22 stops. This is my best estimate based on a sampling of 4000 spins of a Reel Strike machine I played at the Silver Legacy in Reno. Note how only two numbers (85 and 86) are mapped to the highest paying symbol, the double red 7, while 8 numbers are mapped to the blank above it, and 9 to the blank below it. For more details on the experiment please visit my


The outcome was actually determined by a boring RNG the instant you hit the button, but a screen showing

739492742934 - Lose
883281929347 - Lose
938237429912 - Pay 3 coins
239901003010 - Lose

would not be much fun.

I highly recommend the book "Flaws and Fallacies of Statistical Thinking". It is not the most exciting, but it is a great reference for all of those things "you've heard" about probability and statistics. http://www.amazon.com/Fallacies-Statistical-Thinking-Stephen-Campbell/dp/0486435989

Use of psychology is huge in casinos, but that does not mean that games of chance are fixed or the casino is cheating.

I'm dumbfounded by this conspiracy theory, but it did pique my curiosity. I understand that the Gaming Board regulates that the slots must be run by the RNG. So, does anyone know what the minimum legal payout % is for RNG in Nevada as set by the Gaming Board?

It's in the low-mid 80's, but I don't remember the exact number.

Mike

So, does anyone know what the minimum legal payout % is for RNG in Nevada as set by the Gaming Board?

14.040 Minimum standards for gaming devices. All gaming devices submitted for approval:
1. Must theoretically pay out a mathematically demonstrable percentage of all amounts
wagered, which must not be less than 75 percent for each wager available for play on the device.
(a) Gaming devices that may be affected by player skill must meet this standard when using a
method of play that will provide the greatest return to the player over a period of continuous play.

This can be found in the gaming commission document about slot regulations (http://gaming.nv.gov/stats_regs/reg14.pdf)

or visit NEVADA GAMING COMMISSION and STATE GAMING CONTROL BOARD (http://gaming.nv.gov/stats_regs.htm)Gaming Statutes and Regulations web page

In the environment of regulated casinos; you can find almost everything out on the web. I often like to see the drop for various table games and the win by the casinos (which can be found broken down by game).

14.040 Minimum standards for gaming devices. All gaming devices submitted for approval:
1. Must theoretically pay out a mathematically demonstrable percentage of all amounts
wagered, which must not be less than 75 percent for each wager available for play on the device.
(a) Gaming devices that may be affected by player skill must meet this standard when using a
method of play that will provide the greatest return to the player over a period of continuous play.

This can be found in the gaming commission document about slot regulations (http://gaming.nv.gov/stats_regs/reg14.pdf)

or visit NEVADA GAMING COMMISSION and STATE GAMING CONTROL BOARD (http://gaming.nv.gov/stats_regs.htm)Gaming Statutes and Regulations web page

In the environment of regulated casinos; you can find almost everything out on the web. I often like to see the drop for various table games and the win by the casinos (which can be found broken down by game).

Thanks for the info.

I'm dumbfounded by this conspiracy theory, but it did pique my curiosity. I understand that the Gaming Board regulates that the slots must be run by the RNG. So, does anyone know what the minimum legal payout % is for RNG in Nevada as set by the Gaming Board?
The minimum is 75%, but if you are going to play slots, you're better off going to machines that guarantee a higher payout. I've seen plenty in good casinos marked at 99%. The Nevada Gaming Commission requires them to actually have the payout that they advertise (though I forget the specific rules on whether they can say 99% on top of a carousel but only have one machine at that payout - so you should look for ones that are individually marked).

The minimum is 75%, but if you are going to play slots, you're better off going to machines that guarantee a higher payout. I've seen plenty in good casinos marked at 99%. The Nevada Gaming Commission requires them to actually have the payout that they advertise (though I forget the specific rules on whether they can say 99% on top of a carousel but only have one machine at that payout - so you should look for ones that are individually marked).

It there is a sign at the top that says something along the lines of "Guaranteed 99% Payout!," then they all have to have a 99% payout. Much more common is a sign that says "Up to 99% Payout!," in which case it only has to be one.

Mike

Casino's continue to replace their table games with slots because slots create the majority of their profits.
I have always been a big fan of the table games. Slot machines IMO are just a cheap way of winning.