Earlier this year there were many Medallion members who said that they would seek comp status on other airlines. This, in light of the changes to the Skymiles Program. Initially, I wondered if these were empty threats. It appears that these were not empy threats. Not only has DL lost Medallion members to other airlines but, sadly, the DL Forum has lost many good people who made us think and laugh and educated us. (Thanks,GG & Lex for hanging out). This Forum is weaker because of those good people who left for greener pastures. I am pleased to see old friends who still visit us, and miss others(Yknot & his great parodies)-- So--Old-timers--, if you are still around, please pay us a visit from time to time. If, really an old-timer, please remember Russ21Atl. He really did make a difference. You can honor him again by donating to the Aidswalk Atlanta.
heckler
Jul 27, 03, 7:43 am
Is there some scientific way to deduce how many medallions have left DL? I guess we'd need access to info we can't get to at DL. Also, I ssuspect that just because someone has left DL and flies another airline, their status may remain active at DL - even though they have "extended the middle finger" and left for NW, CO, UA, etc.
AuAAdvantage
Jul 27, 03, 8:19 am
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by heckler:
I ssuspect that just because someone has left DL and flies another airline, their status may remain active at DL - even though they have "extended the middle finger" and left for NW, CO, UA, etc.</font>
Exactly. The changes (or "enhancements" as DL has the nerve to call them) took effect this year. I earned my Medallion status based on last year's activity, but jumped ship to AA last January. So even though I still have FO status with DL in '03, they haven't gotten dime one from me this year. Thousands of $$$$ have gone to AA instead, at least in my case, which includes family members. Next year should be when the numbers of Medallions should drop sharply, through a combination of travelers like myself who avoid DL altogether, and others, who while still DL customers, don't earn enough qualifying miles because they're using LUT fares which they only get 1/2 credit for now. Let me correct that....You'll have some at each Medallion level dropping to lower levels or no longer having status at any level. Of course, this is assuming all other things being equal. They're not, of course, so the actual numbers might be even worse (or perhaps better, though I don't see how).
RobertS975
Jul 27, 03, 8:27 am
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by heckler:
Is there some scientific way to deduce how many medallions have left DL? I guess we'd need access to info we can't get to at DL. Also, I ssuspect that just because someone has left DL and flies another airline, their status may remain active at DL - even though they have "extended the middle finger" and left for NW, CO, UA, etc.</font>
The data can be very deceiving. I am sticking around for 2003 to enjoy the last year of my PM privileges. And I may come close to getting PM again, but am not making any concerted effort to do so.
But even if I did not fly DL a single time in 2003, the worst I would get demoted to in 2004 is a GM.
I have already booked a Hawaii trip in Feb 2004... on NW.
Robert Leach
Jul 27, 03, 9:34 am
Being somewhat of a captive in ATL, I have split travel equally between DL and AA. I'll be GM on DL for life thanks to my "complimentary annual" GM gift as a result of being 2MM. And I'll be Platinum on AA.
Delta's net loss from me is about 50,000 miles of travel at K domestic/M international fare levels, which I realize to them doesn't mean very much.
And lately I have noticed that short haul fares from ATL to other southeastern markets where AirTran doesn't fly have really gotten ridiculous. On a truly leisure fare (purchased well in advance, booked in U, with a Saturday night stay), it costs more to fly 153 miles to Knoxville than it does to fly 1946 miles to Los Angeles. I take this to mean that Delta is really tightening the screws on captive passengers who have no choice but to drive or take Delta in stronghold southeastern markets. It does nothing to promote any loyalty from me. The legacy carriers still don't get it, I'm afraid.
jeffreyt
Jul 27, 03, 12:15 pm
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by Robert Leach:
I'll be GM on DL for life thanks to my "complimentary annual" GM gift as a result of being 2MM. </font>
Not to split hairs, but are you sure? I don't see any words in the new program that say "lifetime", which is quite unfortunate. And if they truly mean life time, then why didn't they just leave it as "lifetime"?
LexPassenger
Jul 27, 03, 12:19 pm
Well, heckler, this is "scientific" only in the old-fashioned data-gathering sense:
Are You Leaving? (http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/Forum21/HTML/008558.html)
Are You Checking our other Boards? (http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/Forum21/HTML/008653.html)
These are a fraction of the threads from a 10 day period in January!
You can skim through them and find a hundred folks we don't hear from here anymore, who have left Delta!
If Congress wants to give me one of those $million study grants, I will gladly mind the details; otherwise, the rest of the problem is left for homework.
[edited for URL, of course]
[This message has been edited by LexPassenger (edited 07-27-2003).]
fcrit
Jul 27, 03, 12:22 pm
I've been doing a bi-weekly ATL-FLL-TYS-ATL loop for about two years now. I've already dropped the TYS-ATL return because I'm not going to pay another $400 to get home later than I could if I just drive my rental back car to Atlanta. Over the past couple of months I've also been considering dropping the TYS flights completely and just driving both ways to TYS, saving another $300-400.
My current plan is to ride through this year as a Platinum with my upgrades, etc., and build up some more DL miles to burn. Then in January I'll switch the FLL trip to AA (Miami), and drive to TYS. That 2x/month loop is going to continue through mid-2005, so DL's going to lose my 140 flights during that time, for two reasons - gutting Platinum (mainly the upgrades) and screwing the captive markets.
JRF
Jul 27, 03, 12:46 pm
I am training and driving more and flying less on DL. Trffic jams are as agravating, but at least I don't have to deal with the "we hate you management team". I have actually come to like driving, and even did a trip from Baltimore to Salina Kansas. Got to see a good bit of America at my own pace.
Occupationalhazard
Jul 27, 03, 2:06 pm
I flew B6 this w/e, JFK-BUF (so Delta wasn't really an option, anyway). They're cheaper, have a superior coach product, and a staff that is (seems to me, anyway) less prone to surliness. Check-in at JFK was an absolute breeze--I went to the "check-in for pax w/o checked luggage" and was on my way in seconds.
I switched to the UA program (converting my PM-now GM-credential to PremEx), and can utilize UA's more and better partners to Europe. [Biggest plus: no more Air FARCE, ever! Whoo-hoo!]
I fly Delta when/if they are the most price competative [which hasn't really happened yet], or if I am burning Skymiles.
It was nice while it lasted.
O/H
[This message has been edited by Occupationalhazard (edited 07-28-2003).]
happywanderer
Jul 27, 03, 2:30 pm
I left in January but still check the board here to see if the issues are still the same. And they are. I am now with UA and they comped to Gold. To date 32,000 base miles on UA, 0 on DL. Plus I have IAD/HKG, EWR/HNL, IAD/ATH plus few domestic short hops already booked. I certainly intend to make top tier with UA this year. Interestingly, I've received operational upgrades on two trans-Atlantic flights. I have never been denied an upgrade using 500-mile segments that I've accumulated. I still have just under 1 million SkyMiles to cash in. This year, I've flown DL only once and that was an award ticket. I will draw down my SkyMiles in the future by booking my award flights on UA. I certainly have no regrets about leaving DL.
AngryPM
Jul 27, 03, 2:36 pm
Hi all,
After 320+ flights exclusively on DeIta the last 3+ years I am gone from Delta completely. For those that have not seen my prior posts, I am overjoyed with my comped status and service at USAirways and I would enthusiastically recommend them to any east coast flyer.
I have even cancelled my Delta Platinum AMEX card. The catalist for that was actually trying to use the companion certificate. When I checked the qualifying fare I could actually buy two discount coach tickets for less!!! Funny thing about AMEX is that I average about 80k a year with them and they bent over backwards to keep my buisness. I recommend the Gold Membership Rewards Plus Card ($150 year, 2 to 1 point for a bunch of stuff, etc...).
Unfortunately Delta won't even notice my absense and I will be priviledged to be "enhanced" to gold for next year so I stay on the rolls.
I do still read the posts here and enjoy the topics, I think it is like methadone after all the years of Delta addiction.
Flying_Duck
Jul 27, 03, 2:55 pm
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by obscure2k:
This Forum is weaker because of those good people who left for greener pastures. I am pleased to see old friends who still visit us, and miss others(Yknot & his great parodies)-- So--Old-timers--, if you are still around, please pay us a visit from time to time. If, really an old-timer, please remember Russ21Atl. He really did make a difference. You can honor him again by donating to the Aidswalk Atlanta. </font>
For us relative "newbies", this post is like new MM's being puzled about the discontent of the old timers with the reduction of medialion benefits, because they are happy with them, because they didn't know better, that is, we obviously did not know "how good" the Delta board was as all we know is what is here now.
However, there are several relative newbies (and I am not only thinking of myself), who try hard to contribute to this board in a meaningful way (and who actually fly Delta in contrast to what seems to be a majority of the "old guard" !). It may not be as good as it was in "the good old days", but all we can do is to the best of our abilities, however limited they may be.
In my professional opinion, the patient is still alive, groggy and confused for sure, but not beyond ressusitation http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/smile.gif
obscure2k
Jul 27, 03, 3:20 pm
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by Flying_Duck:
For us relative "newbies", this post is like new MM's being puzled about the discontent of the old timers with the reduction of medialion benefits, because they are happy with them, because they didn't know better, that is, we obviously did not know "how good" the Delta board was as all we know is what is here now.
However, there are several relative newbies (and I am not only thinking of myself), who try hard to contribute to this board in a meaningful way (and who actually fly Delta in contrast to what seems to be a majority of the "old guard" !). It may not be as good as it was in "the good old days", but all we can do is to the best of our abilities, however limited they may be.
In my professional opinion, the patient is still alive, groggy and confused for sure, but not beyond ressusitation http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/smile.gif</font>
Flying_Duck am sorry that I failed to mention the great contribution by the "newbies." You are surely one of the great examples of a newbie who provides so much thought and insight and I love reading your posts. Guess I was feeling a bit nostalgic last night for Eyeflydoc,. Tolarian Wind, Paradocs, Angry PM and others. Glad to know that some of the oldtimers are at least lurking, if not posting.
Edited for UBB
[This message has been edited by obscure2k (edited 07-27-2003).]
LexPassenger
Jul 27, 03, 7:27 pm
As an "oldie", I join obscure in being VERY pleased with some of the "newbies" who make positive contributions.
Too bad some of the "middies" (who've joined in the last 6 months or so...) think those of us no longer BUYING Delta tickets, even if burning miles and using credits and vouchers, should just leave quietly. Not that any of THEM have done much positive around here, though.
Duck, you are more than welcome to the madhouse known as Flyertalk Delta. May your miles never expire, and your upgrades all get used!
"Do not go gently onto that last flight..." (sorry Dylan....)
obscure2k
Jul 27, 03, 7:57 pm
May your miles never expire, and your upgrades all get used!
What a great epitaph http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/smile.gif
Canarsie
Jul 27, 03, 8:56 pm
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by LexPassenger:
Too bad some of the "middies" (who've joined in the last 6 months or so...) think those of us no longer BUYING Delta tickets, even if burning miles and using credits and vouchers, should just leave quietly. Not that any of THEM have done much positive around here, though.</font>
I now know how you feel, Flying_Duck...
-------------------
For the record, I feel like everybody went away shortly after I finally decided to post for the first time. Quite frankly, I may have only been posting here for 7 months, but I have been around here much longer than that.
I wish everybody would come back also.
avek00
Jul 27, 03, 9:24 pm
Honestly, Delta will probably experience little shrinkage (and might even witness some growth) in the Medallion ranks as a result of the new changes, in part due to these reasons:
1. Elites will continue to transfer FROM other carriers to SkyMiles as their travel habits warrant;
2. The new MQM scheme will cause more members to qualify for Medallion status; and
3. DL's current captives in the South and Northeast have few viable alternatives (i.e., options that don't involve far-out airports or 2+ connections), and will therefore stick with Delta.
I don't doubt that there are angry Medallions out there. However, it is absurd to think that the ranks will diminish en masse; the bottom line is that most Medallions CAN'T feasibly switch from Delta even if they wanted to.
------------------
Thank you for choosing Continental Airlines, a proud member of the SkyTeam Alliance.
Goin-2-AA
Jul 27, 03, 9:37 pm
I guess the real milestone for me was changing my bookmark to the American forum from the Delta forum. I now only check in here to see if the issues are the same and if folks are still holding out hope that Delta will change. I respect the posters and former posters of this board too much to keep reading of their continued plight. It is painful to check-in here more than once a week.
Life on the other side ain't too bad.....
Regards,
LexPassenger
Jul 27, 03, 9:38 pm
avek: Medallion ranks does not equal extra revenue. It equals, well, however much status Delta wants to give away.
Driving away Medallions who spent extra to replace them with even more Medallions who don't give a squat doesn't make any more money, either.
MQMs bring in Medallions who couldn't previously be enticed to spend more. Why should their behavior change now?
Captives have few alternatives. Row, row! That is the new Medallion chant as we man the oars, eh? How about this for a clue: much of the Southeast is within a six hour drive of Hotlanta. Once you factor in traffic, parking, Security, and ASA, Hertz and Avis are really very competitive options for most of this travel.
A meeting in Knoxville? Four hours on the freeway, vs. five hours getting to Hartsfield, parking, doing the kiosk, getting molested at security, waiting for the flight, and then getting FastBreak before picking up the rental.
Birmingham's even closer.
And I am curious as to Delta's captives in the Northeast. Who exactly are those?
Dovster
Jul 27, 03, 10:20 pm
I am in four FF programs: Delta, El Al, Lufthansa, and Arkia (the domestic Israeli airline). Call me "disloyal" if you will, but I decide what airline I will fly based on what is good for me. The FF program is a consideration when all other factors are equal, but it is not THE factor.
I only fly on Lufthansa when I am going to Germany. I take El Al for business trips when its schedule proves best. I take Alitalia when going to Italy, AF when going to Paris, and buy somebody's ticket which gives me Delta Skymiles when heading to the US.
Will I change? No. I considered moving over to UA but it means that all my trans-Atlantic trips will require a stop in Frankfurt. If you have never flown from Germany to Israel, let me give you one warning: Don't. Long before 9/11, Security out of Germany -- on Lufthansa or El Al -- was the toughest in the world. Every single passenger has all of his luggage searched and then you are given a body check. Afterwards, you are kept isolated in a small departures room.
I could switch to Continental, but what will I really gain? If I want to fly on Continental, I can use my Delta Medallion.
Ditto for Alitalia and Air France.
Am I happy with Delta's changes? No. Do I think that my GM status gives me real benefits? Again, no. But I don't think that anyone else's program is SO much better that it makes revamping my travel plans worthwhile.
LLM
Jul 27, 03, 11:41 pm
I hope this is a good place to ask this but my husband mysteriously became Gold. He hasn't flown Delta in 15 years, but flew two biz r/t's the AF nonstop between Manila and Paris this year. It's the most convenient way to get from our Philippine office to Europe and he even got an upgrade to F once. He'll probably do this one or twice a year.
Getting the miles posted was a major pain. We can't switch the miles to HH anymore so he now has 68000 sitting there. Are these good for anything? How hard is it to get AF tix from LAX to Europe? We go to Hawaii on HA from SAN so we won't use them up that way. We have plenty of Amex MR points to add.
obscure2k
Jul 27, 03, 11:48 pm
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by littleleaguemom:
I hope this is a good place to ask this but my husband mysteriously became Gold. He hasn't flown Delta in 15 years, but flew two biz r/t's the AF nonstop between Manila and Paris this year. It's the most convenient way to get from our Philippine office to Europe and he even got an upgrade to F once. He'll probably do this one or twice a year.
Getting the miles posted was a major pain. We can't switch the miles to HH anymore so he now has 68000 sitting there. Are these good for anything? How hard is it to get AF tix from LAX to Europe? We go to Hawaii on HA from SAN so we won't use them up that way. We have plenty of Amex MR points to add.</font>
littleleaguemom I suspect your are right. This is probably not the right forum to discuss your specific issues. Why not start a new topic, e.g. "Gold--why now, after 15 years of no activity--"
or: "how can I maximize my GM miles." These are topic subjects which may grab the attention of others on this board. Moreover, you may want to do a search dealing with tix from Lax/Cdg on Af. I do know that there have been several postings related to awards and upgrades on AF from Lax/CDG. Please feel free to contribute to this thread. I just think that you will be better-served starting a new topic.
O2K
[This message has been edited by obscure2k (edited 07-27-2003).]
paradocs
Jul 28, 03, 12:31 am
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by obscure2k:
night for Eyeflydoc,. Tolarian Wind, Paradocs, Angry PM and others. Glad to know that some of the oldtimers are at least lurking, if not posting.
</font>
Thanks for thinking of me O2K I am still here nearly every day. I still care very much about this board and Delta. I remain willing to help the www.saveskymiles.com (http://www.saveskymiles.com) effort. I enjoy the discussions and arguments here. http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/biggrin.gif I have not bought tickets on any other airline yet. I will reevaluate towards year end and most likely defect. That means my employees and family go too.
I find it very interesting that at the 72 hour mark I am mostly wait listed rather than confirmed lately. It wasn't like that 3-4 months ago. I could usually get the upgrade at my window.
Occupationalhazard
Jul 28, 03, 6:56 am
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by avek00:
...the bottom line is that most Medallions CAN'T feasibly switch from Delta even if they wanted to.</font>
You would be amazed how feasible it is, at least for us Northeasterner "captives"...and it's only going to get easier.
O/H
jabez
Jul 28, 03, 7:41 am
I "left" (some flights now and then)Delta early this year and stating using NW (comped gold).I,however,never left this board (even if just lurking).
The hardest change for me is taking so many connecting flights. Living in ATL makes it tough to not use Delta, but I sure like being upgraded EVERY flight (no matter the fare)on NW.
avek00
Jul 28, 03, 8:18 am
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by Occupationalhazard:
You would be amazed how feasible it is, at least for us Northeasterner "captives"...and it's only going to get easier.
O/H
</font>
Admittedly, it's not too hard for many Northeastern captives to switch, but most of the Southern captives have little choice, especially if they value their time at a premium.
------------------
Thank you for choosing Continental Airlines, a proud member of the SkyTeam Alliance.
Dick Ginkowski
Jul 28, 03, 8:37 am
I don't think DL will have as many Medallions and probably could care less, or so it seems.
Ironically, the alliance with NW and CO could provide less incentive to return/
Seat1A
Jul 28, 03, 9:19 am
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by Dick Ginkowski:
Ironically, the alliance with NW and CO could provide less incentive to return/</font>
my thoughts exactly... i'm less likely ever to return to skymiles, since i can focus on NW miles, and fly DL only when i'm "trapped". sadly, this means DL gets the high-yield portion of my flying anyway (full-Y BOS-LGA trips).
indufan
Jul 28, 03, 9:49 am
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by avek00:
... most Medallions CAN'T feasibly switch from Delta even if they wanted to.
</font>
MOST? Meaning greater than 50 percent? No way. Even medallions in ATL are ALREADY driving to BHM to lower their costs of flying. And they have lots of options out of BHM. Seems to me that nearly every airline there ever was flies to MCO which seems to have a high number of medallions. OK, SLC flyers, you have limited choices. But, there are still choices.
L-1011
Jul 28, 03, 10:40 am
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by RobertS975:
But even if I did not fly DL a single time in 2003, the worst I would get demoted to in 2004 is a GM.</font>
Don't count on it. I didn't fly any paid flights on DL in 2002 and they moved me from PM to SM (and I think it was only because of my MM status that it stopped there).
jabez
Jul 28, 03, 10:45 am
I've tried the BHM drive a couple times,but iy really makes for a long day.
I ,like Seat1A, will now take Delta when "trapped". But, now I can do that through NW. I think the alliance is the best thing to happen (for quite awhile)for us ATL flyers.
JRF
Jul 28, 03, 12:04 pm
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by RobertS975:
But even if I did not fly DL a single time in 2003, the worst I would get demoted to in 2004 is a GM.
</font>
This has been discussed in several other threads in the past. Some people have been dropped from PM to nothing, and others have been dropped to GM or FO. I guess it depends on how much travel you did during the year or how close you came to making the next level. The days of knowing that you will not be dropped more then one level no matter what are gone.
But then in fareness to DL, I dropped them from number one on my loyalty to list to not on the list at all.
Donna D
Jul 28, 03, 12:09 pm
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by avek00:
Honestly, Delta will probably experience little shrinkage (and might even witness some growth) in the Medallion ranks as a result of the new changes, in part due to these reasons:
2. The new MQM scheme will cause more members to qualify for Medallion status; and
3. DL's current captives in the South and Northeast have few viable alternatives (i.e., options that don't involve far-out airports or 2+ connections), and will therefore stick with Delta.
I don't doubt that there are angry Medallions out there. However, it is absurd to think that the ranks will diminish en masse; the bottom line is that most Medallions CAN'T feasibly switch from Delta even if they wanted to.
</font>
While the actual number of medallions might stay the same under the MQM qualificaiton standards [which I doubt] - I doubt this new breed of medallions will be loyal to Delta. If flying on Delta had ever been important to this group of individuals, they would have already obtained and maintaned medallion status on the airline. Additionally, once these new people become adorned with their new elite status - given the changes to the program this year - I doubt they will be impressed enough to care.
Regarding us southern "captives" - I think you are wrong about that. Personally, since I discovered the elite program and decided to make DL my airline of choice because of it, I have been happy with DL and never saw much need to look elsewhere ... until now. In fact, I spent almost a year flying on SWA to south florida until I discovered the benefits of elite status on DL - even as an FO the status was important to me. What DL has done is to force us so-called "captives" to look around and consider other options - and yes, there are other options, none of which benefit Delta. I have discovered that what actually held me captive was the elite program and not DL itself. Now that DL has unilaterally decided that I am no longer worthy to be their customer, after Feb 2004, I will no longer be captive to the elite program which often meant paying more for my tix than necessary, paying for a CRC membership, flying many extra hours out of my way, etc. etc. So, I think you might be surprised at how many of us so-called captives fly the coop next February when we lose our status.
jeffreyt
Jul 28, 03, 4:38 pm
Delta has specifically stated when they announced the changes, that no matter how much PM's fly this year, they will only drop one level next year.
JRF
Jul 28, 03, 4:52 pm
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by jeffreyt:
Delta has specifically stated when they announced the changes, that no matter how much PM's fly this year, they will only drop one level next year. </font>
And my Lifetime FC is still good.
I dropped from PM to nothing. If you believe everything DL tells you, hold your breath to see some the cuts given back to us.
GG
Jul 28, 03, 5:10 pm
jeffrey is correct -
it's on the Delta website: (http://www.delta.com/skymiles/about/medallion_updates/qualification_changes/index.jsp#qual)
"Members who earned 2003 Platinum Medallion and Gold Medallion status will not have their status decreased by more than one level in 2004."
Just another way to obfuscate the effect of the changes to the SkyMiles program.
edited for spelling and to add link
------------------
email on profile
[This message has been edited by GG (edited 07-28-2003).]
hnechets
Jul 28, 03, 5:14 pm
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by JRF:
And my Lifetime FC is still good.
...</font>
JRF,
Apologies if I misinterpreted your post, but were you referring to the lifetime Crown Room Club membership given to Flying Colonels ("FC") ?
http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/smile.gif
mikey1003
Jul 28, 03, 6:52 pm
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by hnechets:
JRF,
Apologies if I misinterpreted your post, but were you referring to the lifetime Crown Room Club membership given to Flying Colonels ("FC") ?
http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/smile.gif
</font>
Ah....when is lifetime not lifetime??
hnechets
Jul 28, 03, 7:05 pm
Well, for one, when Delta tells you it is!
http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/frown.gif
(where is the thumbs-down code when you need it?)
scg
Jul 28, 03, 7:27 pm
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Regarding us southern "captives" - I think you are wrong about that. Personally, since I discovered the elite program and decided to make DL my airline of choice because of it, I have been happy with DL and never saw much need to look elsewhere ... until now. In fact, I spent almost a year flying on SWA to south florida until I discovered the benefits of elite status on DL - even as an FO the status was important to me. What DL has done is to force us so-called "captives" to look around and consider other options - and yes, there are other options, none of which benefit Delta. I have discovered that what actually held me captive was the elite program and not DL itself. Now that DL has unilaterally decided that I am no longer worthy to be their customer, after Feb 2004, I will no longer be captive to the elite program which often meant paying more for my tix than necessary, paying for a CRC membership, flying many extra hours out of my way, etc. etc. So, I think you might be surprised at how many of us so-called captives fly the coop next February when we lose our status.</font>
What Donna said.
I stuck with DL because the perks of FO status were worth it. Since DL doesn't feel like I'm worthy of FO, it's caused me to look around.
I just earned my first 1200 miles on HP -- and got a whole 1200 miles toward Silver Elite! I ended up driving to SLC instead of flying from PIH to SLC. It's pretty close to a wash for time. It's not a wash on the fare. Once I get to SLC, I'm only somewhat of a DL captive.
As for the flight, sure I missed the DL perks.
I was one of the last group of passengers (Group 6) on a full (!) plane. There was room for my carryon.
There weren't any kiosks, but HP has web check-in that I'll try next time. Instead I talked to the pleasant lady at the counter.
I couldn't upgrade to first, but I lived.
Will I do it again? Sure. I return on 9 Aug and I'm getting ready to book a one-way for September. HP = $134, DL = $523. If Delta doesn't want me, America West seems glad to have me.
I'm pretty pleased with myself. I saved $1800 in fares and earned twice the mileage toward HP Silver Elite compared to what I would have earned toward DL Silver Medallion.
Afterthought: I'd love to see the changes rolled back and would stick with DL given the perks. Without the perks, DL is just another airline.
sllevin
Jul 29, 03, 2:46 am
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by avek00:
the bottom line is that most Medallions CAN'T feasibly switch from Delta even if they wanted to.
</font>
That's very unlikely. I would suggest that more than 51% of Medallions are not in captive Delta markets.
I would also point out that the number of captive Delta markets is shrinking and will continue to shrink as AirTran adds additional west coast destinations.
A business model defined by "forget about captive markets and just squeeze the captive ones" would be an utter failure.
Steve
ozstamps
Jul 29, 03, 6:27 am
I have attended a number of Flyertalker dinners and meetings and lunches and Dooos in the past 2 weeks with about 100 FT'ers in Europe and across the USA.
As it happened a pretty sizeable number of these folks were once loyal Delta flyers. Most are still Medallions until Feb 2004. Virtually NONE of these folks have flown a paid mile on DL this year unless it was totally unavoidable.
That is clearly a highly un-scientific and statistically un-representative sample to base a survey upon, but if I were Delta and heard what I have heard, I'd be darn worried. http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/thumbsdown.gif http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/frown.gif http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/thumbsdown.gif
And anyone who likes to theoretically imagine from his textbook CEO armchair that these flyers are "captive" simply needs to get out more. http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/wink.gif
------------------
~ Glen ~
Come visit HERE (http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/Forum13/HTML/000502.html) the most ** FRIENDLY FORUM ** on FlyerTalk. No flame wars, no personal abuse, no substance abuse. Not much of anything really!
[This message has been edited by ozstamps (edited 07-29-2003).]
JRF
Jul 29, 03, 7:16 am
ozstamps, I have to agree. I seldome run across anyone I know who still flies on DL. We even discuss the "remember when DL was a great airlines" in our conversations about how did you get here today.
ConnFlyer
Jul 29, 03, 8:11 am
Change in Passenger Revenue per Available Seat Mile (RASM) for 2nd Qtr 2003:
DL 6.1%
FL 4.5%
AA 2.6%
WN 1.2%
US 1.1%
NW 0.9%
CO 0.5%
B6 -3.1%
Read into these numbers as you choose, but to me these numbers don't show a massive loss of high-yield medallions. If so many medallions were abandoning DL (especially the high-yield business ones), why would DL's RASM be outperforming its competitors? Shouldn't CO/NW/AA be seeing RASM rise faster if they are picking up so many of DL's medallions members?
Also, consider that the 2nd quarter saw the arrival of Airtran on ATL-LAX, ATL-LAS and ATL-DEN plus JetBlue on ATL-LGB. So the whole captive market theory holds less and less water and all that competition should have a negative impact on DL's RASM numbers.
Certainly some folks have left and some more will leave in the future, but I don't think the anecdotal evidence from this board is an accurate barometer.
JRF
Jul 29, 03, 8:15 am
Any numbers that DL provides I give as much weight as Enron. I just don't trust a word they say.
Tomphot
Jul 29, 03, 8:17 am
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by JRF:
ozstamps, I have to agree. I seldome run across anyone I know who still flies on DL. We even discuss the "remember when DL was a great airlines" in our conversations about how did you get here today.</font>
I ran across 189 people who still fly DL on one of my few DL flights last month.
I live in ATL and am not captive. I fly AirTran a lot. Am now Elite and enjoy their version of Simply Good Business - getting upgraded for free on fares that don't qualify - and having Red Coats around.
jeffreyt
Jul 29, 03, 9:40 am
Add me to the list of people, as of January 1, who have not flown DL much this year. I went from being a 100,000+ mile-per-year-flyer to only having 23,000 MQMs ytd. My last flights were in March, although I will be flying in a couple weeks on DL (which I'm looking forward to). Meanwhile, AA has received 70,000 q-miles me. It's all because of the changes in the program, period.
Kubla
Jul 29, 03, 10:14 am
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by ConnFlyer:
Change in Passenger Revenue per Available Seat Mile (RASM) for 2nd Qtr 2003:
DL 6.1%
FL 4.5%
AA 2.6%
WN 1.2%
US 1.1%
NW 0.9%
CO 0.5%
B6 -3.1%
Read into these numbers as you choose, but to me these numbers don't show a massive loss of high-yield medallions. If so many medallions were abandoning DL (especially the high-yield business ones), why would DL's RASM be outperforming its competitors? Shouldn't CO/NW/AA be seeing RASM rise faster if they are picking up so many of DL's medallions members? </font>
Change in Avaliable Seat Miles, Q2 2003
US -13.5%
DL -10.7%
NW -9.1%
AA -7.7%
UA -7.0%
CO -6.8%
WN 4.2%
FL 17.0%
B6 69.5%
That might have something to do with it. The fact that AirTran's RASM was up 4.5% while they increased ASM by 17% means they are attracting a huge number of new passengers. Delta is only cutting service faster than passengers are leaving.
BertBamboo
Jul 29, 03, 10:20 am
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by ConnFlyer:
Change in Passenger Revenue per Available Seat Mile (RASM) for 2nd Qtr 2003:
DL 6.1%
FL 4.5%
AA 2.6%
WN 1.2%
US 1.1%
NW 0.9%
CO 0.5%
B6 -3.1%
Read into these numbers as you choose, but to me these numbers don't show a massive loss of high-yield medallions. If so many medallions were abandoning DL (especially the high-yield business ones), why would DL's RASM be outperforming its competitors? Shouldn't CO/NW/AA be seeing RASM rise faster if they are picking up so many of DL's medallions members?
Also, consider that the 2nd quarter saw the arrival of Airtran on ATL-LAX, ATL-LAS and ATL-DEN plus JetBlue on ATL-LGB. So the whole captive market theory holds less and less water and all that competition should have a negative impact on DL's RASM numbers.
Certainly some folks have left and some more will leave in the future, but I don't think the anecdotal evidence from this board is an accurate barometer.
</font>
Thanks ConnFlyer;
Delta will lose some customers and gain some customers. Their intent is to NOT continue providing strong loyalty rewards and benefits to lower margin customers.
I believe this strategy will drive more business from the higher margin customers who formerly did not receive the same level of loyalty rewards and benefits that the lower margin customers received.
The industry is changing rapidly and competition is growing and improving.
As will any business strategy, only time will tell if the net result is positive or negative.
Does Delta get it right all the time? No.
Is the effort a sound business strategy? Yes.
The vitriolic comments we see on this forum are strong evidence that Delta’s network, service and overall offering are one of the best available. The take-away and readjustment is very painful for those who are moving their business to formerly second-tier alternatives.
Disclosure: I am not now or have I previously been a Delta employee. I have never performed contract work for Delta. My family is not employed by Delta. I am an Atlanta based business and leisure traveler who believes it is my best interest for Delta to succeed.
Beckles
Jul 29, 03, 10:31 am
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by L-1011:
Don't count on it. I didn't fly any paid flights on DL in 2002 and they moved me from PM to SM (and I think it was only because of my MM status that it stopped there).</font>
I can echo this, I didn't fly on DL at all in 2002 and they dropped me from Gold straight to nothing ... no "soft landing".
JRF
Jul 29, 03, 10:35 am
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by BertBamboo:
Is the effort a sound business strategy? Yes.</font>
It is never a wise business decision to drive away loyalty. Loyal customers will understand and accept reasonable cutbacks, that is why they are loyal. Chasing them away is burning bridges, and this is not wise.
Cholula
Jul 29, 03, 10:36 am
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by jeffreyt:
It's all because of the changes in the program, period. </font>
Guess I'm one of the few on this board who haven't bailed yet. But I have started shopping for a new carrier to Hawaii which is one of my most frequent and costly domestic flights. Have posted on the Hawaiian Air board for advice but the activity on that board is minimal so I'm not holding my breath. I have also started to fly WN on routes where DL has subbed RJ's.
I'm "enjoying" the remnants of the 2003 SM's program, subbing alternate carriers on a selective basis and trying to figure out my strategy for 2004. The "where, how and why" I fly still points to DL as the "who" I'll fly in 2004 and beyond. My unique circumstances just don't indicate a better overall carrier for me at this time.
ConnFlyer
Jul 29, 03, 10:50 am
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by JRF:
Any numbers that DL provides I give as much weight as Enron. I just don't trust a word they say.</font>
That's what I love about you, JRF. Your rants against DL are based solely on anecdotal evidence and what you think...never backed up with facts or real numbers. When someone brings you real numbers, you simply dismiss them and provide no counter-argument.
Of course, you're not alone. Whenever numbers are posted that go against the common "DL is evil" mantra...most of the "DL is evil" crowd seem to slink away.
JRF
Jul 29, 03, 11:02 am
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by ConnFlyer:
That's what I love about you, JRF. Your rants against DL are based solely on anecdotal evidence and what you think... </font>
Yep, and it is my thinking that has kept me from holding Enron/MCI and so forth. If you believe everything you read, then I pitty you. You have to think and soemtimes go with gut feeling and apply your experience.
Goin-2-AA
Jul 29, 03, 11:45 am
Kubla has a great point....
While certainly not the sole indicator of profitability....if you multiply the RASM growth by the ASM growth(contraction) you get an idea where the Revenue is flowing and ebbing.
DL 106.1 X .893 = 94.75
FL 104.5 X 1.170 = 122.26
AA 102.6 X .923 = 94.70
WN 101.2 X 1.042 = 105.45
US 101.1 X .865 = 87.45
NW 100.9 X .909 = 91.72
CO 100.5 X .932 = 93.66
B6 96.9 X 1.695 = 164.25
Revenue is flowing to the low cost carriers and the expense of the majors. However, this does not reflect how profitable the changes have been as it is unknown how expensive the seats removed were to operate.
My humble interpretation here is that B6 is adding considerable capacity at a fairly responsible rate keeping the load factors fairly constant. FL is filling up planes faster than they can acquire routes and WN is growing market share while growing RASM.
The RASM growth in all others is the result of shedding capacity. That trick only lasts so long....
Regards,
LexPassenger
Jul 29, 03, 12:02 pm
The numbers game... over time, these things become much clearer, but just as a snapshot, there is much fog.
I'm not sure what your percentages refer to, ConnFlyer -- annual change from 2nd quarter 2002 to 2nd quarter 2003? Since AirTran only released info today and has not yet filed it with SEC, someone is making estimates?
Here are MY numbers, based on SEC filings, comparing 3rd Quarter 2002 -- the last full one before Delta announced the changes -- with 2nd quarter 2003. Numbers are Passenger Revenue per Available Seatmile, except for Southwest, which reports Operating Revenue per Available Seatmile (includes cargo, I guess), and AirTrans current quarter, which I have inferred by multiplying their per mile yield by load factor, which should equal PRASM.
Now if we blend these two sets of numbers, it is clear that there are patterns.
Delta is successfully increasing its PRASMs. But so is AirTran and most of the others.
NW has probably been inordinately hit by SARS reducing its Pacific yields.
JetBlue is being fiercely price competitive and is increasing its stage lengths, which tends to decrease RASM.
Most noticeably, you will see that the phrase low-fare airline so many people use is a misnomer.
Anyway, I think we all agree that this will play out over another year or so. So everybody needs to keep tuned, eh?
BTW, while researching I stumbled across this fascinating document (http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/100517/000095013703001023/c74632exv99w1.htm), which has some info about United's frequent flyer revenues....
ConnFlyer
Jul 29, 03, 1:08 pm
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by LexPassenger:
The numbers game... over time, these things become much clearer, but just as a snapshot, there is much fog.
I'm not sure what your percentages refer to, ConnFlyer -- annual change from 2nd quarter 2002 to 2nd quarter 2003? Since AirTran only released info today and has not yet filed it with SEC, someone is making estimates?
Here are MY numbers, based on SEC filings, comparing 3rd Quarter 2002 -- the last full one before Delta announced the changes -- with 2nd quarter 2003. Numbers are Passenger Revenue per Available Seatmile, except for Southwest, which reports Operating Revenue per Available Seatmile (includes cargo, I guess), and AirTrans current quarter, which I have inferred by multiplying their per mile yield by load factor, which should equal PRASM.
Now if we blend these two sets of numbers, it is clear that there are patterns.
Delta is successfully increasing its PRASMs. But so is AirTran and most of the others.
NW has probably been inordinately hit by SARS reducing its Pacific yields.
JetBlue is being fiercely price competitive and is increasing its stage lengths, which tends to decrease RASM.
</font>
Airtran's 3rd Qtr RASM numbers are available in the press release they put out this morning...you don't have to wait for the SEC filing.
Your numbers are good and pretty much back up the numbers I show. The only thing "wrong" with your numbers is that you are comparing different quarters of the year which does skew things a little.
I'll certainly agree that where DL is losing customers is to the low-fare airlines. However, carriers that have far better frequent flyer programs are also losing passengers to low-fare carriers. So if having a great frequent flyer is so important (as many on this board claim), then why are AA,NW,CO,US losing passengers to the low-fare (or as you more aptly point out not-so-low-fare) carriers?
I think what DL has realized is that you can hand out all the little carrots to business travelers that you want (ie upgrades,lounges) and try to generate some kind of "loyalty," but it's not real loyalty and it doesn't last. Many consumers are finally realizing that the traditional frequent flyer programs (that many on this board practically worship by) offer little in value especially when you consider the fares that many have paid to stay loyal.
More than anything, consumers want safe, reliable, convenient and reasonably priced travel options. DL's got the safe part down pat. DL is generally reliable (though there are exceptions...ASA being most notable). DL is generally convenient in most markets is serves...obviously there are weak areas in DL's network, but no carrier has the country covered perfectly.
DL is starting (though very slowly) to change its fare structure and make fares more reasonable. In fact, I would argue that one reason DL's RASM is rising faster than industry average is because of Airtran. DL has been forced to adopt Airtran's more reasonable fares and forced to adopt more reasonable prices for F class. Unfortunately, DL doesn't have Airtran's cost structure, so it will be harder for DL to make money off the new fare regime.
BertBamboo
Jul 29, 03, 1:31 pm
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by JRF:
It is never a wise business decision to drive away loyalty. Loyal customers will understand and accept reasonable cutbacks, that is why they are loyal. Chasing them away is burning bridges, and this is not wise.</font>
Focusing scarce resources on those customers with the highest margin yield is the correct strategy.
A "loyal" customer is only valuable if they contribute to the bottom line.
Blindly chasing after "loyal" customers who demand features and benefits that are beyond the capability of a company to profitably produce and deliver is folly.
That is like the old saw where the sidewalk watermelon merchant bemoans the fact he is buying each watermelon for a dime, selling it for a nickel, and planning on making up the difference in volume.
Cholula
Jul 29, 03, 2:04 pm
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by LexPassenger:
BTW, while researching I stumbled across this fascinating document (http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/100517/000095013703001023/c74632exv99w1.htm), which has some info about United's frequent flyer revenues....</font>
It is indeed fascinating and appears to have been, at some point in it's life, a confidential PowerPoint document. It's very enlightening as to the thought process an airline goes through in analyzing it's business model.
Of particular interest was one of the charts that showed DL as having the largest percentage of RJ's in it's fleet...54%. Not surprising but an alarming trend nevertheless.
JRF
Jul 29, 03, 2:08 pm
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by BertBamboo:
Focusing scarce resources on those customers with the highest margin yield is the correct strategy.
A "loyal" customer is only valuable if they contribute to the bottom line.
Blindly chasing after "loyal" customers who demand features and benefits that are beyond the capability of a company to profitably produce and deliver is folly.
That is like the old saw where the sidewalk watermelon merchant bemoans the fact he is buying each watermelon for a dime, selling it for a nickel, and planning on making up the difference in volume.</font>
So DL will become the airline that "You love to fly once" and then you are gone as loyalty is not worth it. That is great, but what happens when everyone has flown DL once?
BertBamboo
Jul 29, 03, 2:17 pm
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by Cholula:
Of particular interest was one of the charts that showed DL as having the largest percentage of RJ's in it's fleet...54%. Not surprising but an alarming trend nevertheless.
</font>
Cholula
Don't you think this is skewed by DL's ownership of Comair and ASA?
Cholula
Jul 29, 03, 2:26 pm
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by BertBamboo:
Cholula
Don't you think this is skewed by DL's ownership of Comair and ASA?</font>
Could well be. I hadn't really had time to analyze any of the data. I bookmarked the site and will peer at it again later. DL at the top of the chart jumped out at me. As much as I try to work around RJ's, there's one in my future tomorrow http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/frown.gif as I return home from the East Coast.
martin33
Jul 29, 03, 2:32 pm
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by LexPassenger:
BTW, while researching I stumbled across this fascinating document (http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/100517/000095013703001023/c74632exv99w1.htm), which has some info about United's frequent flyer revenues....</font>
the fascinating document is excerpted from a much much longer one [available via the UA forum], and much of its plan seems to have been abandoned by UA in any case; it's 200 pages of McKinseyspeak garbage.
As to RASM figures, yes they go up when capacity decreases, but no one has shown the $64 question numbers-- what's happening to the CASM? absent large changes in fixed/structural costs, CASM will rise even faster than the RASM for the shrinking lines. Several of those airlines have made a dent in their cost base; so far at least, it is unclear that DL will be able to make similar progress.
[This message has been edited by martin33 (edited 07-29-2003).]
Cholula
Jul 29, 03, 2:45 pm
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by martin33:
it's 200 pages of McKinseyspeak garbage.</font>
Hey, watch how you talk about Uncle Leo's buddies!! http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/wink.gif
Like it or not, McKinsey or one of their ilk seem to have quite a voice in how airlines and other businesses are operated today. There's one of them talking in nearly every CEO's ear as I write this. So whether garbage or not, IMO input from consultants carries quite a weight in the executive suite today.
MisterX
Jul 29, 03, 2:45 pm
From reading this thread, it seems Delta is taking a "same as" philosophy. The Delta product is the same as any other product.
The marketing theory must be, all coach is uncomfortable, all business is better, all first is best.
As a newbie, its the inability to get upgrades that upsets me the most. I am one of those who is limited in my choices, Delta seems to be the best of a bad lot.
Kubla
Jul 29, 03, 2:54 pm
It's a little bit hard to make sense of the CASM figures from Delta (only airline who's filing I've looked at so far) because they include the TSA payout. Delta reports a CASM for the second qaurter of 9.71 cents, which is 3.4% lower than second quarter of 2002. But they also report a CASM excluding of 10.95 cents. That's up 9.7%. Given that they also reported higher CASM for the first quarter of 2003 than Q1 2002, it seems that CASMs are rising, which isn't a great shock. Their breakeven load factor continues to hover around 80%. A lot depends on what happens with th pilots.
BertBamboo
Jul 29, 03, 3:03 pm
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by JRF:
So DL will become the airline that "You love to fly once" and then you are gone as loyalty is not worth it. That is great, but what happens when everyone has flown DL once?
</font>
Not sure of your logic here JRF.
Delta is not trying to run off folks after one flight.
They are behaving in exactly the same manner they have in the past. They have a set number of FF elites to whom they can offer enhanced services and benefits.
The only difference now is that the criterion to achieve FF elite is changing; some will be promoted and some will be demoted.
Where before, under the previous qualification method, a high volume miles or segments flyer could receive Platinum level benefits and a high dollar volume could receive Gold benefits, they may now be reversed.
Was DL trying to run off the old Gold in the previous scenario? No.
Is Delta now trying to run off the new Gold in the current scenario? No.
Delta is simply rewarding the customers who contribute the most to the bottom line.
In addition, DL also appears to be raising the soft “price” of an F seat to compensate for the declining $ price they are able to charge for an F seat.
As ConnFlyer has pointed out, DL may expect to have fewer F seats available for upgrade if they find themselves matching competitors' (such as Airtran) F price.
You need a ratio above one to think about making money...
Notice how close they came 2nd quarter last year? That's when they were still optimistic about 2003, remember?
But security hassles, the war build-up, the so-so economy and the August refundable ticket/change fee grab intervened; then fuel prices and previously agreed employee raises kicked in.
Bert: this is where we can (I hope politely) disagree. I do not believe it is a good strategy to focus resources on the customers with the highest margin yield.
You should focus resources on the customers with the highest marginal propensity to spend more as a result of your focus. If those turn out often to be the same customers, fine; but the focus should be on generating the most extra revenue for the investment, not on how much revenue comes in per se.
Otherwise, you're just giving them more than they were willing to pay for!
LexPassenger
Jul 29, 03, 6:09 pm
Interestingly, to me at least, AirTran closed almost a point and a half higher than Delta today. SFAIK, that is the first time!
May Bert and Conn be right, and may Delta be moving in the rational fare direction.
You need a ratio above one to think about making money...
Notice how close they came 2nd quarter last year? That's when they were still optimistic about 2003, remember?
</font>
yep. shrink the system without greatly shrinking labor or plant/equipment costs and CASM has to rise. On the bright side, the fuel component has come down quite a bit though. DALPA's vampire contract, though, beats on like an undead energizer bunny...
Robert Leach
Jul 29, 03, 9:40 pm
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by BertBamboo:
They are behaving in exactly the same manner they have in the past. They have a set number of FF elites to whom they can offer enhanced services and benefits.
The only difference now is that the criterion to achieve FF elite is changing; some will be promoted and some will be demoted. </font>
Bert,
That is not the only difference. The other MAJOR difference is that the "enhanced services and benefits" offered to those who qualify for elite status under the new criteria have been reduced greatly. If the benefits were the same but only the qualification method had changed, I would agree with your argument. But to tighten up the qualification standards (with which I have no problem), and at the same time markedly cut the benefits offered to the elite qualifiers, undercuts your argument quite a bit.
Moreover, if you do have a desirable customer who buys the types of fares you like as an airline manager, shouldn't you want to structure the tiers in your program to the point where you entice said customer to buy even more of those desirable fares? Instead, with the changes in the "enhanced services and benefits" offered to elite flyers, what is the incentive to fly 100,000 miles (or MQMs) instead of 50,000 -- i.e., what is the incentive to move from GM to PM? It boils down to 28 extra advance hours to confirm the upgrade, plus six one way systemwide upgrades. That's it. I think most flyers get more marginal benefit from giving the other 50,000 miles to a second carrier and earning elite status on it.
LAOCA
Jul 29, 03, 9:48 pm
Everyone is so convinced the MQM system doesn't help. I'm not so sure. When I buy a C class ticket on another carrier I feel ripped now. That's the business I try and give Delta first shot at now.
LexPassenger
Jul 29, 03, 11:49 pm
LAOCA:
what enquiring minds want to know:
What about Delta's Medallion levels makes them desirable to reach over those other airlines 33% lower levels? (ie, what you would achieve without 100% MQMs).
Compared to HP, NW & CO, I cannot see it compared to upgrade possibilities. Compared to AA and UA I cannot see it compared to coach seating comfort. Compared to WN I cannot see it compared to fare prices. Pray tell?
martin33
Jul 30, 03, 12:41 am
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by LAOCA:
Everyone is so convinced the MQM system doesn't help. I'm not so sure. When I buy a C class ticket on another carrier I feel ripped now. That's the business I try and give Delta first shot at now.</font>
That seems odd. once you've got GM, on your spending patterns you have a chance to easily claim equally high or higher status on your choice of AA (33667 F or 40000 C-class miles = 50000 Q-points = Platinum) or NW (where c.o.s bonus miles directly count towards status).
BertBamboo
Jul 30, 03, 8:00 am
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by LexPassenger:
Bert: this is where we can (I hope politely) disagree. </font>
Lex,
As I have before, I will follow your lead on this. I prefer polite.
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by LexPassenger:
I do not believe it is a good strategy to focus resources on the customers with the highest margin yield.
You should focus resources on the customers with the highest marginal propensity to spend more as a result of your focus. If those turn out often to be the same customers, fine; but the focus should be on generating the most extra revenue for the investment, not on how much revenue comes in per se.
Otherwise, you're just giving them more than they were willing to pay for! </font>
I agree with you Lex. In addition to incenting high yield customers to continue spending at Delta, that is the next step in the progression. I hope that Delta is moving to that goal.
Delta has identified the customers who provide the greatest margin yield. As simple as that sounds, it is not an easy calculation. The previous FF program, using miles and segments as the yardstick, was an attempt to identify the highest yield customers, but as business travel demand began to drop in 2000 and the airlines lost pricing power, plus the presence of low fare, viable competition, this yardstick became a highly inaccurate indicator.
The problem is, how does Delta identify those customers with the highest propensity to increase marginal yield? Profiling and testing is the only way I know of, since it involves measuring past and current activity on Delta as well as past and current activity on competitors and then predicting future intentions on both Delta and competitors.
While the current program is not the optimal solution, it is far better than the program it replaced. Hopefully Delta is moving forward to the next level by establishing a method whereby they can accurately identify and incent those customers with the highest propensity for increased marginal yield.
Jim Phillips
Jul 30, 03, 8:06 am
All of this RASM/CASM percent-to-ratio arithmetic mathematical convolution to me points only to one thing: That DL management has no appreciation of the KISS (Keep It Simple, Stupid) principle.
Though unglamorous in its presentation, KISS is truly elegant in the simplicity of its execution.
Especially when a straightforward, reasonable loyalty program will help encourage ridership which in turn helps the company's bottom line.
No duh, you say?
Maybe you should be telling that to DL management.
JRF
Jul 30, 03, 8:51 am
Remember when you earned an FT991 for flying 20K miles? I would keep flying on DL way past 100K miles a year as I kept earning the FT991. This award was on valid in Y/Q/M for intl. This was an inventive for me to keep flying DL and pay a high fare.
DL ended the FT991 award along with their understanding of incentivevising someone to fly at higher fares based on rewards. I do not think DL actually understand what it is all about. You give them far too much credit. They are shooting from the hip with very dark glasses on (not even rose colored).
[This message has been edited by JRF (edited 07-30-2003).]
LexPassenger
Jul 30, 03, 9:12 am
jim: RASM minus CASM more or less equals profit. Since that is the point of a business, I do believe Delta management needs to pay attention to it.
Did I miss something here?
BertBamboo
Jul 30, 03, 12:34 pm
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by Robert Leach:
Bert,
That is not the only difference. The other MAJOR difference is that the "enhanced services and benefits" offered to those who qualify for elite status under the new criteria have been reduced greatly. If the benefits were the same but only the qualification method had changed, I would agree with your argument. But to tighten up the qualification standards (with which I have no problem), and at the same time markedly cut the benefits offered to the elite qualifiers, undercuts your argument quite a bit.
……. what is the incentive to move from GM to PM? It boils down to 28 extra advance hours to confirm the upgrade, plus six one way systemwide upgrades. That's it. I think most flyers get more marginal benefit from giving the other 50,000 miles to a second carrier and earning elite status on it.
</font>
Robert;
I did note that DL had essentially instituted a “soft price” increase for F upgrades with the new FF program rules. I believe that this is their attempt to increase the perceived value of upgraded F.
A seat in F is the most valuable piece of flying real estate that DL (or any airline) owns. Since F can no longer command crazy high hard dollar prices seen previously, DL appears to be trying to reposition the value of an F upgrade to more accurately reflect the true demand and market value.
That being said, I hope that DL will tweak and adjust the program rules, such as differences between Gold and Platinum. The scenario you depict of a customer stopping at Gold and then working on status at a second carrier seems realistic.
hfly
Jul 30, 03, 7:53 pm
JRF is right about the SWU thing. I was flying a hell of a lot more at bigger fares on DL when I got SWU's.
Let's see, four years ago I was top on DL and on BA. Now I'm top on DL, BA and KL (recently on BD as well), I am not flying particularly more, that would mean that I am throwing a lot of business in other carriers/alliances way.
LexPassenger
Jul 30, 03, 8:11 pm
hfly: those who measure will measure anything.
They missed measuring your change in behavior.
The crime is that only what they measure makes the grade for evaluating services.
If it cannot be measured, it doesn't exist.
That is how Delta will lose several hundred million dollars.
Occupationalhazard
Jul 31, 03, 12:10 am
CASM, RASM, Sis-boom-bah.
Here's the problem (for DL) and the difference (on B6), and the only 2 equations that matter:
We can argue interminably about whose fault the gap b/w expectations and reality are on DL (I chose to make DL 99.44% responsible, b/c every time I have to pick a %, I like to use the advertised purity of Ivory Soap).
Anyway, I (and others) were certainly willing to pay more than the lowest available fare to upgrade to first (did it many times, myself, on K/Q/M fares). I also probably took flights I didn't need to take, or at least didn't need to take on DL.
If DL needs to change to survive, fine, but then they should say that, and not spew a lot of coporate Doublespeak/BS about how they are "enhancing" Medallion benefits, whilst they are "enhancing" them right into the ground, and simultaneously pulling crapola like the "pension" grab, which had *everything* to do with protecting Leo & Co's loot in a B/K filing, at the expense of the shareholders, and non-bandito employees. E.O.S.
Anyway, see everyone on B6, and *A, if I am flying across the pond.
It was fun, while it lasted.
O/H
[Oh, yeah, I forgot my mandatory-in-each-post dig at AF; they stink, and I don't miss them.]
jjglaze77
Jul 31, 03, 12:13 pm
In a response to the original topic... on DL 857 DFW-MCO on July 30th, I got OpUpped because of an oversale in coach... Nothing unusual except, I am Silver on a T fare... You mean to tell me that there weren't an GMs or PMs or even SMs on U+ fares???? Granted, this is just one flight, but I'm on this flight a LOT and it is becoming pretty common... and the "best" part is... this is what Uncle Leo wants! That plane was basically a SONG flight... it was filled with vacationers... He is sooo happy that all these people are flying, people who don't know that they SHOULD get better service! Yeah... the only thing Uncle Leo is sad about is me sitting in First on a T! I can see the tears already... Cheers Leo!(BTW, First was NOT full... only OpUpped just enough!!!)
sr_tipitinas
Aug 1, 03, 3:40 pm
I've been a Medallion for about 7 years and I have not flow Delta since December. I'm already a Cont. Gold. It feels nice to be appreciated.
GUWonder
Aug 1, 03, 4:46 pm
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by sr_tipitinas:
I've been a Medallion for about 7 years and I have not flow Delta since December. I'm already a Cont. Gold. It feels nice to be appreciated.</font>
I have had 50+ segments and/or 50,000+ miles every year for a few years. This year, DL has had me on 2 shuttle segments only. They may manage to pull 2-5 more from me the rest of the year, but I don't regret cutting back on DL (somewhat a product of my current assignments and most certainly a product of DL's lack of benefits for any Shuttle-only flyer.
EyeFlyDoc
Aug 1, 03, 11:40 pm
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by obscure2k:
Flying_Duck am sorry that I failed to mention the great contribution by the "newbies." You are surely one of the great examples of a newbie who provides so much thought and insight and I love reading your posts. Guess I was feeling a bit nostalgic last night for Eyeflydoc,. Tolarian Wind, Paradocs, Angry PM and others. Glad to know that some of the oldtimers are at least lurking, if not posting. </font>
Hey Guys! You know I was just thinking about how long its been since I checked my DL balance and stopped by here to catch up with old friends. Don't think that I don't miss you. Over years of lurking, I got to know many of you and I consider you friends - even though in most cases we've never met.
I am not around here much for a variety of reasons including being a victim of my own success. My travel schedule has gone through the ceiling. In addition, I have almost completely stopped flying Delta and thinking about how they idiotically destroyed my relationship with them really irritates me. Thanks to DL, it looks like I will be able to make EXP on AA. I may have to forgo the last 8K or so on DL to qualify for PM but I am not sure that it matters that much to me anymore.
I think Delta management has proven itself more adept at alienating customers than engendering loyalty and I am more convinced than ever that there must be a gas leak at HQ. As I believe someone else mentioned, this could be the makings of a book on customer relations MISmanagment.
AA is OK but I still like the front line folks at Delta and I really miss them. AA and DL apparently have different hiring criteria and I still find myself more comfortable on DL. Even so, my last trips on DL were shocking and I have little doubt that I am not the only high mileage, decent profit Medallion to abandon ship.
As for O2K, and the rest of my friends, I am still here, certainly in spirit if not quite as much in actual presence. I too miss the old days when mileage runs and FT camaraderie were key and we helped each other enjoy our travel as much as someone who sits in a plane for 100K+ can. I will still check in from time to time and sometimes when I go to sleep at night, I dream of endless mileage runs with perfect weather, delicious ice cream sundaes served from carts, free flowing Glen Morangie and better times....
Steffo
Aug 2, 03, 12:25 am
Hi everybody. I rarely stop by anymore. I still fly Delta a bit just to use up my miles. No hope that I will use up my upgrades. I still have NAMU's and a boatload of MSU's. I guess DL will be happy not to have anybody actually use those to upgrade. I flew one RT on DL this year because it happened to be half the price of the competition. Even then, I hesitated to give DL any more of my money after what they did to the Medallion program. I'm driving more, flying less, spreading my flying around between carriers, and discovering that it has made my life easier. I never realized quite how much it was costing me in time and energy to take out of the way routings and such just to keep all my flying on DL and make GM, not to mention all the extra money I spent buying K fares. It feels good to not worry about how many base miles I have and just take the quickest and easiest flights.
I wish everybody well, and I still have a half million miles left to spend so maybe I will see some of you around. All the best. http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/smile.gif
LAOCA
Aug 2, 03, 9:16 am
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by LexPassenger:
LAOCA:
what enquiring minds want to know:
What about Delta's Medallion levels makes them desirable to reach over those other airlines 33% lower levels? (ie, what you would achieve without 100% MQMs).
Compared to HP, NW & CO, I cannot see it compared to upgrade possibilities. Compared to AA and UA I cannot see it compared to coach seating comfort. Compared to WN I cannot see it compared to fare prices. Pray tell?</font>
The point regarding UA/AA coach product is a good one Lex. However, other than family award vacations or standing by for an earlier flight I haven't had to ride in the back much. When I do, all exits are comparable. Also, if it's less than three hours it doesn't seem to matter much. Still an excellent point, I love UA's E+.
However, here's what I have learned over the last five million miles in the air. Delta is the number one US airline in taking care of top tier passengers. Canceled flights, bad weather, missed connections, reservation problems, long lines at immigration, etc. How an airline handles those things is one of the most important facet of how I rate them. In short, who gets me home wins. That's Delta.
Also, contrary to the writings on this board I have found Delta management to support it's customers far more than UA by policy in comparison to UA and AA
With respect to HP, NW, and CO. I do not consider those carriers as competition for the big three. If there service suffices for your travel patterns, great. Mine are diverse. Even Delta is a struggle. I couldn't do without UA/Star and a second carrier. Frankly, I like UA planes, routes, food (big deal) and Star over Delta. But Delta still wins top partner with me because of management's customer poilicies.
misty1tk
Aug 3, 03, 9:13 am
I walked into the TPA CRC last week and the rep asked how are you. I said at 52 segs and 28000 MQMs not well. Said I had given it my best shot for 2003 but it was time to move on after 23 years 1.9MM miles etc. She lowered her head and said you are by far not alone in our TPA customers. Said many of the regulars had left and expected year end to flush out the rest. Told her it was a sad decision for me but with a corporate contract I hade no hope of doing Gold let alone Plat. Told her I had match offers from US, NW, and CO. Even our corp travel dept in helping us on new matches. She said good bye and said she understood.
MusicMan
Aug 6, 03, 1:08 pm
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by misty1tk:
I walked into the TPA CRC last week and the rep asked how are you. I said at 52 segs and 28000 MQMs not well. Said I had given it my best shot for 2003 but it was time to move on after 23 years 1.9MM miles etc. She lowered her head and said you are by far not alone in our TPA customers. Said many of the regulars had left and expected year end to flush out the rest. Told her it was a sad decision for me but with a corporate contract I hade no hope of doing Gold let alone Plat. Told her I had match offers from US, NW, and CO. Even our corp travel dept in helping us on new matches. She said good bye and said she understood.</font>
I too, DO have a choice, and have chosen to LEAVE "Franken-Delta".
I just flew my last RT on DL as a PM/MM this past weekend (PBI/LAX/PBI). Upon my return home, I found my acceptance letter from NW for Gold Elite. I still have 25+ domestic trips to fly this year plus 3 international trips--those $ will now go to NW.
I have been a DL PM for 7 years now. I have stayed loyal up to this point (paying the higher K fares) hoping that DL would reverse their Platinum "enhancements", particularly the 500 mile SUGs and no more unlimited upgrades. (Problem: 595 miles PBI/ATL--I would have to use 2 upgrades for FC on that one flight). Free Crown Room? Love it! But I can now use my AMEX Corp Plat. on NW to get in to the WorldClub free.
Interesting that most of the talk I've heard and participated in over the years in FC used to be about the latest extra-mileage promotions, has now turned to "who are you changing to..." discussions. Even on my return flight on Monday, many of the long-time PM's told me they were "topping off" their mileage for awards, and then bailing.
Bottom line or not, the Medallion changes have alienated many top-tier flyers (I believe this was the original post), and it looks as if DL management will not reverse it's course. I will miss the excellent DL employees that have served us over the years. Many of them have told me that they are actually embarassed over the treatment of the loyal top tier DL flyers by the DL Management, and are sorry to see us go.
Thanks, DL Forum! I have enjoyed reading many posts over the years. I wish you the best, and God Bless!
paradocs
Aug 6, 03, 1:36 pm
There are still many Medallion Passengers and Employees who are clueless about the changes.
My latest example (yesterday) was the CRC agent in SAN. She has been with DL for 7 years and had no idea what the enhancements are. She commented that she had not received complaints.
Then on my flight (SLC-SAT) there were 3 Platinums who knew each other. I overheard one of them saying that he has 2.9 million flight miles. I asked them if they knew about the changes and they had no idea. It was as though they didn't believe me. The 2.9 guy said he would write Leo. He commented that Leo is a reasonable guy who would listen if he wrote. And he stated if very matter of factly: as though Leo would make the changes just for him! http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/biggrin.gif
IMHO: we need to keep spreading the word.
[This message has been edited by paradocs (edited 08-06-2003).]
mikey1003
Sep 5, 03, 2:53 pm
I agree with Obscure, I really miss some of these old posters (some I will never miss http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/smile.gif )
Eidetic
Sep 8, 03, 12:23 am
MusicMan, you can still fly DL, and credit your miles to WorldPerks. You won't receive the COS miles as status miles, as you would on NW/CO/KL equipment, but sometimes the DL a/c and city pair are a better match, e.g., into Europe from the South (as long as you don't have to board a 764).
[This message has been edited by Eidetic (edited 09-07-2003).]
The Lurker
Sep 8, 03, 1:47 am
It is shocking when people are unaware of the changes, especially major changes ("enhancements") such as these. I think that there are going to be some unpleasant surprises in the new future.
------------------
No thanks, I'm just lurking. Call me the Lurker!
obscure2k
Oct 31, 03, 11:46 pm
Mikey's defection to NW (after nearly 4 million miles on DL) was truly stunning, but not surprising. I suppose the burning question is when 2003 ends and 2004 begins, how many new medallions will there be?
Cholula
Nov 1, 03, 1:23 am
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by obscure2k:
Mikey's defection to NW (after nearly 4 million miles on DL) was truly stunning, but not surprising. I suppose the burning question is when 2003 ends and 2004 begins, how many new medallions will there be?</font>
Mikey's defection is unfortunate but, as you state, not surprising. I think that at the START of 2004, DL wil have more Medallions than they can count. The big question is, by 2005, how many Medallions will be left? It'll take a few months for many current Medallions to figure that in DL's enhanced SM's program, 2 + 2 = 3.
I think you'll then see mass defections if, in fact, there is a viable airline to defect to. That may be the wild card DL is banking on.
RobertS975
Nov 1, 03, 6:24 am
For example, take me... I will make PM again this year for 2004. But I will not be using DL in 2004 since my PM status will really get me very little in the way of benefits. So DL's policies will drive this multi-year PM customer who almost always flew K and higher fares to another carrier. And what's more, this PM's wife, a GM, and kids will also be moving on.
Great job, Leo!
RSSrsvp
Nov 1, 03, 9:46 am
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by Cholula:
I think you'll then see mass defections if, in fact, there is a viable airline to defect to. That may be the wild card DL is banking on.</font>
There are several choices that can be made. AA, CO & NW. IMHO, NW would be an excellent one considering that they have taken the path to the higher road and are not belittling us with 1/2 MQM's. For anyone living in a DL hub, once NW starts upgrading Medallions the way they do with CO Onepass members, this will be an obvious choice. We should thank NW for dancing to the beat of a different drummer.