Alaska Airlines Mileage Plan - F9 entering the SFO-LAX

F9 has announced this morning they are going to have 5 daily r/t between SFO and LAX effective June 29th.

right now AS only has one daily r/t between the 2 cities (AM SFO-LAX and PM LAX-SFO -- presumably for mexico traffic) -- AA and UA have numerous flights.

interesting choice of routes for F9

F9 has announced this morning they are going to have 5 daily r/t between SFO and LAX effective June 29th.

right now AS only has one daily r/t between the 2 cities (AM SFO-LAX and PM LAX-SFO -- presumably for mexico traffic) -- AA and UA have numerous flights.

interesting choice of routes for F9

It will not affect AS. What will happen is the following: F9 will have very low introductory fares, AA&UA will match introductory fares and most ff will book on them because of ff programs, F9 will have high loads at first which will quickly drop off, F9 will discontinue service, and AA&UA will raise fares back to previous levels.

It will not affect AS. What will happen is the following: F9 will have very low introductory fares, AA&UA will match introductory fares and most ff will book on them because of ff programs, F9 will have high loads at first which will quickly drop off, F9 will discontinue service, and AA&UA will raise fares back to previous levels.

Yeah, but the question is how long will it take? 3 months? 6 months? :D

At the same time F9 is not your run-of-the-mill LCC that cherry-picks routes, drops its pants, and hopes to win some and lose some. They very cleverly started their base at DEN realizing they could undercut UA and still make money. UA, in its arrogance, hoped they'd just go away. Sure F9 has pulled out of a route here or there, but they've done pretty well at building themselves up.

So while you describe the typical failed LCC market entry, I'm not so sure this one will fail. This is a very high-volume route, with little price pressure (typically OAK/SJC have lower fares, but there's a huge market for SFO-LAX service).

As for AS, AS's single daily SFO-LAX flight is really just a feed for its Mexico service, so there's really no competitive threat there. Maybe for UA or AA, but not AS.

Yeah, but the question is how long will it take? 3 months? 6 months? :D

At the same time F9 is not your run-of-the-mill LCC that cherry-picks routes, drops its pants, and hopes to win some and lose some. They very cleverly started their base at DEN realizing they could undercut UA and still make money. UA, in its arrogance, hoped they'd just go away. Sure F9 has pulled out of a route here or there, but they've done pretty well at building themselves up.

So while you describe the typical failed LCC market entry, I'm not so sure this one will fail. This is a very high-volume route, with little price pressure (typically OAK/SJC have lower fares, but there's a huge market for SFO-LAX service).

As for AS, AS's single daily SFO-LAX flight is really just a feed for its Mexico service, so there's really no competitive threat there. Maybe for UA or AA, but not AS.

There is also a huge volume of full-Y business travel that ends up flying OAK/SJC-LAX on WN simply because corporate travel policies don't allow for the extortionate AA/UA fares from SFO. I can definitely see F9 picking up some of those customers simply because UA and AA have already burned their bridge with those folks. Even if UA and AA match the low full-Y fares, many people will just look at F9 first because they automatically associate UA and AA with $500+ round trip fares on this route.

AS could have had this market (and appears to come close to matching the WN full fare) but that single flight each way works only for some (but not all) of the Mexico flights.

There is also a huge volume of full-Y business travel that ends up flying OAK/SJC-LAX on WN simply because corporate travel policies don't allow for the extortionate AA/UA fares from SFO. I can definitely see F9 picking up some of those customers simply because UA and AA have already burned their bridge with those folks. Even if UA and AA match the low full-Y fares, many people will just look at F9 first because they automatically associate UA and AA with $500+ round trip fares on this route.

AS could have had this market (and appears to come close to matching the WN full fare) but that single flight each way works only for some (but not all) of the Mexico flights.


The big problem with Frontier is, although they claim to be a "low fare airline", they are no such thing. They are a low COST airline, because their costs are low, but they rarely seem to offer the lowest fares. Anytime I've checked airfares for myself or a family member, I've checked Frontier where they compete, and they are always amongst the higher priced carriers. I like Frontier, they have a nice product, but once the introductory fares fo away, their regular fares will not be the lowest.

It will not affect AS. What will happen is the following: F9 will have very low introductory fares, AA&UA will match introductory fares and most ff will book on them because of ff programs, F9 will have high loads at first which will quickly drop off, F9 will discontinue service, and AA&UA will raise fares back to previous levels.

I checked their fares for 6/29 - it's 69 and change one way (fare plus tax), and they fly 5 or 6 trips, from 615am to 805pm, SFO LAX. They are going to be located right next to us in Terminal 1 at SFO - currently they're down by CO (still Terminal 1).

SFO CSA

The big problem with Frontier is, although they claim to be a "low fare airline", they are no such thing. They are a low COST airline, because their costs are low, but they rarely seem to offer the lowest fares. Anytime I've checked airfares for myself or a family member, I've checked Frontier where they compete, and they are always amongst the higher priced carriers. I like Frontier, they have a nice product, but once the introductory fares fo away, their regular fares will not be the lowest.

This is true of WN as well: WN is almost always more expensive than AS and UA on the routes I fly when looking for advance purchase tickets. However, that market is pretty much irrelevant here - the money is in the flexible walkup fares and most of that cash is going to WN in OAK and SJC at the moment. If you need flexibility, you're going to pay almost $600 (RT) on UA on this route. F9 has a flexible walkup fare of about $240 (RT). I know countless people who hate OAK (and WN) but are forced to fly them to LAX because of UA's and AA's extortionate walkup fares in this market. Those people will now buy an F9 ticket for $240 and fly from SFO. Like I said, AS could have had this market but the frequency is just not there.

Let's hope AS gets into the SFO-SAN market before an opportunistic LCC comes in and grabs all of that marketshare from UA and WN.

Well, I guess it all depends on how much AA and UA want to compete. If they match all of F9's fares immediately, then F9 is in trouble with the very frequent flyers. On the other hand, if F9 is able to get some large corporate clients, then they may be able to make the route work.

UA and AA have both matched with $59+ one-way fares (21 day adv.).

So it's your choice: fly the friendly skies, something special in the air, or a whole different animal.

The AS flight can even be booked under an AA code for the same fare.

Yeah, but the question is how long will it take? 3 months? 6 months? :D

At the same time F9 is not your run-of-the-mill LCC that cherry-picks routes, drops its pants, and hopes to win some and lose some. They very cleverly started their base at DEN realizing they could undercut UA and still make money. UA, in its arrogance, hoped they'd just go away. Sure F9 has pulled out of a route here or there, but they've done pretty well at building themselves up.

So while you describe the typical failed LCC market entry, I'm not so sure this one will fail. This is a very high-volume route, with little price pressure (typically OAK/SJC have lower fares, but there's a huge market for SFO-LAX service).

As for AS, AS's single daily SFO-LAX flight is really just a feed for its Mexico service, so there's really no competitive threat there. Maybe for UA or AA, but not AS.


Looking at the success of F9's LAX focus city...oh wait...that's right, it didn't last. Nor will this in my opinion.

Let's hope AS gets into the SFO-SAN market before an opportunistic LCC comes in and grabs all of that marketshare from UA and WN.

Amen! I can't believe how much $$$ I shell out to UA just because they're the only game in town on that route.

Looks like AS matched when the SFO - LAX suddenly went from $120 to $69. OAK - SNA is still $91 each way.

Looking at the success of F9's LAX focus city...oh wait...that's right, it didn't last. Nor will this in my opinion.'

Exactly!!!

I wish F9 would do SFO-SNA too, this market suffers from the same problem. I'd rather fly into SFO, but OAK is always cheaper by quite a bit due to the AA/UA extortion fares. Even on weekends.

SFO-SAN is another route with no competition and high fares. F9 (or AS) would be most welcome on this route.

It will not affect AS. What will happen is the following: F9 will have very low introductory fares, AA&UA will match introductory fares and most ff will book on them because of ff programs, F9 will have high loads at first which will quickly drop off, F9 will discontinue service, and AA&UA will raise fares back to previous levels.

Unless it goes the way of OAK-LAX and SJC-LAX, where Southwest managed to drive both AA and UA off those routes.

If Frontier can manage the delays, I think they've got a good chance of taking over the SFO-LAX market. None of the "big boys" have managed to operate a western corridor service against competition.

Steve