MilesBuzz! - Looking into the FF's Future with Randy's Crystal Ball

With the end-of-the-year holidays comes time to look forward since we haven’t yet learned to travel back in time. Here’s my glance at those things that will effect your life as a member of almost any frequent traveler program in the year 2001.
http://misc.biztravel.com/content/news_and_views/miles/miles.htm

Trend Number One
Priority by Revenue

Trend Number Two
Less Miles, More Rules

Trend Number Three
Community Currency

Trend Number Four
Home Rules

Trend Number Five
Award Distribution

doc-

Its good to have you again point out the nice timely tips often I miss.

[This message has been edited by MisterNice (edited 12-08-2000).]

As long as we are making predictions:

If Bush Wins: UA buys out US Air
If Gore Wins: UA does not buy US Air.

My crystal ball: I see that FTers will continue to make predictions

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/smile.gif

richard, you just made a prediction, so by self-fulfilling prophecy rule #1, you're absolutely correct. http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/tongue.gif

FewMiles..

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Unofficial Guide to AAdvantage: http://home.webflyer.com/fewmiles/AA/

Interesting article. Thanks for posting it.

Randy's Crystal Ball - Take Two

The final part of the top trends for 2001 for members of frequent traveler programs. And remember, dreaming of a white Christmas means many more miles, points and just rewards. Best of all holidays to you.


Trend Number Six
Coopetition

Trend Number Seven
Taxation

Trend Number Eight
Currency Utility

Trend Number Nine
Non-Program Alliances

Trend Number Ten
Elite Dilution


The Anti-Trend
In our view, using miles as the way to apologize for what you aren’t doing right is the wrong trend to be occurring. These programs have certainly altered our sense of service and demand. Will it change? Not likely, but that doesn’t mean we can’t hope for at least one anti-trend. The message: keep your apology miles and deliver us from evil.
http://misc.biztravel.com/content/news_and_views/miles/miles.htm

The AOL Aadvantage partnership has really been overhyped, benefits have really been limited, and the merchandise offers disappointing (with the exception of the limited time reduced award for the Palm VII which was reported here in FT, but that deal has expired). A while ago there was a thread on FT about how the deal was actually killing other partnerships, like with Mypoints, Greenpoints and Compubank etc. http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/Forum71/HTML/001364.html
So there are negative consequences for consumers, and the added benefits have been few.

Also milepoint has been overhyped in the media and there has been far more negative comments in FT about milepoint than the positive ones.

BTW these articles are also in the latest (Dec 2000) Inside Flyer. Also Randy has an article there mentioning the Diamond Rio MP3 player available from AOLAAdvantage. The site lists it (PMP300) for 27,250 AA miles (at 2 cents per mile this would be $545). Yahoo shopping lists the same product at $99 after mail in rebate.

[This message has been edited by PG (edited 12-20-2000).]

In the more mature US market, a generation of mileage junkies, which is used to collecting miles or points from a vast range of travel and non-travel services, have to yield up extra points if they want to beat demand to get their first choice of dates or destination.
http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid =FT3KCFWJUIC&live=true&useoverridetemplate=IXLZHNNP94C (http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3KCFWJUIC&live=true&useoverridetemplate=IXLZHNNP94C)

The number of members in the major airlines’ frequent-flier programs has skyrocketed to 67 million -- more than double the 33 million in 1995. Despite that surge, critics say airlines are being more tight-fisted with their seats, leaving travelers in the lurch.
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/orl-asec-frequent-020901.story?coll=orl%2Dhome%2Dheadlines

[This message has been edited by doc (edited 02-09-2001).]

Over one year later, who would have ever known?

Next year will be better for sure! http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/smile.gif

-Mark

From the "blast from the past" department:


Randy's Crystal Ball - Take Two

The final part of the top trends for 2001 for members of frequent traveler programs. And remember, dreaming of a white Christmas means many more miles, points and just rewards. Best of all holidays to you.


Trend Number Six
Coopetition

Trend Number Seven
Taxation

Trend Number Eight
Currency Utility

Trend Number Nine
Non-Program Alliances

Trend Number Ten
Elite Dilution


The Anti-Trend
In our view, using miles as the way to apologize for what you aren’t doing right is the wrong trend to be occurring. These programs have certainly altered our sense of service and demand. Will it change? Not likely, but that doesn’t mean we can’t hope for at least one anti-trend. The message: keep your apology miles and deliver us from evil.
http://misc.biztravel.com/content/news_and_views/miles/miles.htm

---

With emphasis, five full years later on:

Elite Dilution

---

FWIW...

Some fliers fly extra to keep elite status

...But some big airlines are quietly allowing good customers to buy the last miles they need to secure their preferred status through 2006.

Among the deals:

• No. 1 American has notified some of its AAdvantage frequent-flier program members that they can buy the extra miles to boost them to Platinum or Executive Platinum membership. The fee is $499 or $599, depending on miles already flown this year.

• Elite members of United's Mileage Plus program who are coming up a little short can retain status for 2006 by paying a fee to get double mileage points for every trip taken in November and December...

http://www.usatoday.com/money/biztravel/2005-12-27-mileage-run-usat_x.htm

Elite members of United's Mileage Plus program who are coming up a little short can retain status for 2006 by paying a fee to get double mileage points for every trip taken in November and December...


I understand that:
1. This offer has now expired.
2. It offered Double Status miles up until 15 Dec 05.

FWIW, concerning the content of

http://www.usatoday.com/money/biztr...-run-usat_x.htm


Randy has also commented on this specific "USA Today" article here:

"I was the source for the article and what i remember going over is stating the Mileage Plus EQM for credit card bonuses and the AAdvantage renewal effort - since this was about mileage runs and not buying miles, etc. The idea of mentioning the AAdvantage offer:

http://www.aa.com/content/urls/elit...URL&title=elite

and the details are in the link and you can see that EXP is not mentioned, is that this is not the first time AAdvantage has done this and my point in mentioning this is that many of those who are unfamiliar with mileage runs are missing out on opportunities to re-qualify for elite without having to fly - something newer to the industry and i suspect will become even more prominent in the future.

I was telling the reporter (and he really is a good one) that 10 years ago the mix for mileage runs was 80/20 - that is, 80% of the mileage runs were being taken to re-qualify for elite status and 20% taken to enhance a bonus promotion, either Fly 3, Get 1 Free, Triple Miles, Topping Off Accounts, etc. while today it has turned completely around, its 20/80. More and more members are using mileage runs for bonus opportunities that may come with elite qualification than in years past and only 20% of them are truly dedicated to elite re-qualification. It's not so much that elite runs have shrunk, it is just that the pool of these types of trips has grown tremendously...

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/showthread.php?t=508058