Newsstand - Airbus sees no A320 replacement for another decade

"ROME, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Airbus Chief Executive Gustav Humbert played down expectations of a rapid replacement of the A320 aircraft family, saying on Thursday its popular jet would not be supplanted until at least 2015..."

http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh2584 5_2006-01-12_17-48-04_l1293668_newsml

They seem to be selling pretty well these days, so I guess a quick replacement isn't all that necessary.

Source: Airwise (http://news.airwise.com/story/view/1137105990.html)
January 12, 2006

Airbus will keep an eye on the distant prospect of China rising as a new competitor but for the moment sees it operating in a different market, the head of the European plane maker's Chinese business said on Thursday.

Airbus had sold roughly 220 planes in China in 2005, Laurence Barron, president of Airbus China said.

China is developing a regional jet, a small airliner intended for short routes.

Asked whether that was a concern, Barron said: "It is not a question of concern but obviously a question of great interest to us."

Airbus did not make such an aircraft and would have to see whether the Chinese model was a success, he said.

"If it is, then maybe there's a new player on the block, but it's not due in service until 2009."

Airbus was not worried about potentially new competition given it was accustomed to competing fiercely with Boeing, he said.

Airbus's smallest plane seats about 100 passengers. Regional jets typically seat fewer.

Analysts say it would be extremely difficult for a new player to break into the market dominated by Airbus and its US rival.

Even if customers could be persuaded that a new product would offer the high reliability and performance that they already trust Boeing and Airbus to deliver, a new competitor would have to overcome the inefficiencies of an airline introducing planes that are not compatible with the rest of its fleet.

Asked whether Airbus might this year repeat its 2005 sales performance in China, Barron said: "Demand in China continues to be extremely strong but I don't think we can expect every year to have that kind of level of orders."

China was likely to purchase more than 2,000 aircraft from Airbus over the next 20 years, he said, adding that the company's recent official forecast stood at 1,800.

"We're reviewing that and I suspect we'll probably increase the number," he said.

Boeing, which is leading Airbus in the lucrative market for wide-body long-haul jets in China, has made similar forecasts though Barron said the two companies' outlooks were not wholly comparable.

(Reuters)

They seem to be selling pretty well these days, so I guess a quick replacement isn't all that necessary.

I expect their tune will change when Boeing launches Y1 - the replacement for the 737 and 757 families. ;)

That being said, I don't expect a Y1 launch before 2010 at the earliest with an EIS around 2012 or so.