US Airways Dividend Miles (Pre-FlightFund Merger) - Any estimates on US estimated survival?

First off, please don't yell at me too much for asking, I don't fly wholly US based itineraries very often, but I am planning a honeymoon for my fiance and I in late July and we wouldn't like to get stranded. We'll probably be going to somewhere in the Carribean (or perhaps South/Central America) from PIT which makes US the obvious choice, although I haven't selected the right island/location yet.

My obvious concern is, will they still be around in July? I know they are doing a bit better cash structure wise, but basically what I am saying is, would you risk two paid buisness or restricted F fares (plus your honeymoon) on it?

Thanks in advance for your advice. :)

Personally, yes. They have enough cash flow to last until the end of June for sure, and even US is profitable in the summertime. My guess is that they'll keep it operating through July.

Congrats on your wedding!

I got sucked up into the doom and gloom in one of the many "USAirways is dead, gone and forgotten" periods and redeemed a couple of awards that weren't a very good value. In the end, I redeposited them and have award tickets booked in January 2006, at another $150 of cost ($75 per ticket redeposit fee).

No one has a crystal ball, and booking on any airline these days can be risky... you just have to roll with the punches. In my opinion it doesn't hurt to have enough miles on a secondary airline to book an override award if you really, really need to be somewhere and your airline of choice folds. I mean, here I am flying Delta all the time and all the hubaloo on that board is now people redeeming miles there.. it never ends!

and even US is profitable in the summertime.

Name the year of the last summer they were profitable???

Name the year of the last summer they were profitable???

2004

Of all the “majors” that are in trouble US, IMHO, is doing what needs to be done to continue for at the very least the short term future. If I had to guess, US will still be here as we welcome 2006 but as correctly said, nobody knows for sure. However, one thing is certain, if not US there will always be a airline flying to the Caribbean so pay by Credit Card (just in case) and enjoy life!

Call me wacky, but I think that the worst is over for USAirways. The next few years will be a fine-tuning of their service... and probable M/A with/by somebody.

Who's in any shape to buy USAirways? I dunno. You hear about America West, which makes sense based on complimentary routes. You hear about Untied, but they are broke.

Hooters has some assets. Maybe them?

2004

?

Three Months Ended September 30, 2004

Operating Revenues
Passenger transportation $ 1,601
Cargo and freight 31
Other 167
Total Operating Revenues 1,799

Operating Expenses
Personnel costs 653
Aviation fuel 282
US Airways Express capacity purchases 204
Aircraft rent 114
Other rent and landing fees 106
Selling expenses 102
Aircraft maintenance 93
Depreciation and amortization 60
Other 362
Total Operating Expenses 1,976

Operating Income (Loss) (177)

?

Three Months Ended September 30, 2004

Operating Revenues
Passenger transportation $ 1,601
Cargo and freight 31
Other 167
Total Operating Revenues 1,799

Operating Expenses
Personnel costs 653
Aviation fuel 282
US Airways Express capacity purchases 204
Aircraft rent 114
Other rent and landing fees 106
Selling expenses 102
Aircraft maintenance 93
Depreciation and amortization 60
Other 362
Total Operating Expenses 1,976

Operating Income (Loss) (177)

Sorry, I should have been more specific. I believe it was the 2nd quarter that they posted the profit.
:)

Sorry, I should have been more specific. I believe it was the 2nd quarter that they posted the profit.
:)

no offense but 1/4 profit our the last how many does not an airline make. Granted any positive quarter is better then a negative one. While I know people are up on US's changes. Think they are far from out of the woods (not alone here DL, UA also still in bad shape). Seems like exit financing might be forthcoming but cash burn rate is high and fare pressure is high as well although NW's increase seems to be holding good for everyone.

Think we will also see one or two more airlines declare distress..before all is said and down...

no offense but 1/4 profit our the last how many does not an airline make. Granted any positive quarter is better then a negative one. While I know people are up on US's changes. Think they are far from out of the woods (not alone here DL, UA also still in bad shape). Seems like exit financing might be forthcoming but cash burn rate is high and fare pressure is high as well although NW's increase seems to be holding good for everyone.

Think we will also see one or two more airlines declare distress..before all is said and down...

I couldn't agree more. It takes several positive quarters for an airline to be considered profitable as a whole. I was simply answering your previous quote about when US last posted a profit during the summer.
I'm hopeful that this new fare increase will stick, because none of the airlines can survive if gas prices continue to sky rocket out of control. Even the ones that have fuel hedged will soon feel the squeeze once their hedge expires.
I just take it one day at a time, nothing more and nothing less. If I have a job at US this time next year then bravo, but if I don't I'm sure there's something else out there for all of us.
Fly safe!

I'm hopeful that this new fare increase will stick, because none of the airlines can survive if gas prices continue to sky rocket out of control. Even the ones that have fuel hedged will soon feel the squeeze once their hedge expires.
I just take it one day at a time, nothing more and nothing less. If I have a job at US this time next year then bravo, but if I don't I'm sure there's something else out there for all of us.
Fly safe!

Ditto. I was talking to an HP FA 2 nights ago and he informed me that they recently jacked all fares up another $10/ticket. However, something tells me that this will not be the last of the increases, as $10 a ticket might not cover it in the long run. Although, they definetly don't want to drive buisness away with the raises, etc.

Who had hedges planned out 2+ years into the future? I'd figure after this year lots of them would be expired.

Who's in any shape to buy USAirways? I dunno. You hear about America West, which makes sense based on complimentary routes. You hear about Untied, but they are broke.




Thanks everybody for your help. ^ I'll probably end up booking on US then, at least it will be a (extremely tiny) drop in the bucket to keep them going.

Bofie: Where did you hear about HP buying US? I didn't see it happen, because although they would bring interesting routes to the game, and they do use Airbuses, which HP is all about, most HP equipment is currently not suited for overwater operations, so I doubt they could continue service to the carribean, etc. IDK even if HP has the cash structure. However, I'd be interested to learn where you heard that from. It sounds interesting.

Call me wacky, but I think that the worst is over for USAirways. The next few years will be a fine-tuning of their service... and probable M/A with/by somebody.

Who's in any shape to buy USAirways? I dunno. You hear about America West, which makes sense based on complimentary routes. You hear about Untied, but they are broke.

Hooters has some assets. Maybe them?


Not to be sexist (well I guess really to be sexist) Virgin America is another possibility.

Imagine the male hormones when flying US Virgin Hooters.

Not to be sexist (well I guess really to be sexist) Virgin America is another possibility.

Imagine the male hormones when flying US Virgin Hooters.

"Delightfully tacky, yet unrefined."... Hooter's slogan. ;)

Ditto. I was talking to an HP FA 2 nights ago and he informed me that they recently jacked all fares up another $10/ticket. However, something tells me that this will not be the last of the increases, as $10 a ticket might not cover it in the long run. Although, they definetly don't want to drive buisness away with the raises, etc.

Who had hedges planned out 2+ years into the future? I'd figure after this year lots of them would be expired.

WN at I belive $28 a barrel. To do thios requires significant cash and no other US airline right now is probably in a position to do this. Especially those in Chap 11 because of their commitments to lenders. BTW WN just raised fares $1-3 today.

Thanks everybody for your help. ^ I'll probably end up booking on US then, at least it will be a (extremely tiny) drop in the bucket to keep them going.

Bofie: Where did you hear about HP buying US? I didn't see it happen, because although they would bring interesting routes to the game, and they do use Airbuses, which HP is all about, most HP equipment is currently not suited for overwater operations, so I doubt they could continue service to the carribean, etc. IDK even if HP has the cash structure. However, I'd be interested to learn where you heard that from. It sounds interesting.


It has been floating around on the boards.

Even the ones that have fuel hedged will soon feel the squeeze once their hedge expires.


Don't hold your breath, 'cause it ain't happening anytime soon. :)


Who had hedges planned out 2+ years into the future? I'd figure after this year lots of them would be expired.

Then you'd have figured it incorrectly. :)


It's gonna be years before WN feels the same pain as other airlines from high fuel prices. From WN's most recent statements on fuel hedges:


"Even though jet fuel prices per gallon increased 20.1 percent, net of hedging gains, our overall unit costs declined 1.3 percent in fourth quarter 2004. We also continue to mitigate record-high jet fuel prices with our hedging program, which resulted in a reduction in fuel and oil expense of $174 million during fourth quarter 2004. Although we are 85 percent hedged in first quarter 2005 with prices capped at $26 per barrel, based on current market conditions, we presently expect first quarter 2005 average jet fuel cost per gallon to exceed fourth quarter 2004's 89.1 cents. We are 85 percent hedged for the remainder of 2005 with prices capped at $26 per barrel; 65 percent in 2006 at $32 per barrel; over 45 percent in 2007 at $31 per barrel; 30 percent in 2008 at $33 per barrel; and over 25 percent in 2009 at $35 per barrel.

http://www.southwest.com/about_swa/press/prindex.html

When WN releases its first quarter results, you can be certain that it will have covered more of its 2006-2009 fuel needs. Every quarter, its coverage extends farther and farther out into the future. It is paying market prices for some of its fuel needs, but its hedging activities are saving hundreds of millions of dollars that other airlines are spending. US and UA are gonna bleed out before WN's fuel costs become a problem.

First off, please don't yell at me too much for asking, I don't fly wholly US based itineraries very often, but I am planning a honeymoon for my fiance and I in late July and we wouldn't like to get stranded. We'll probably be going to somewhere in the Carribean (or perhaps South/Central America) from PIT which makes US the obvious choice, although I haven't selected the right island/location yet.

My obvious concern is, will they still be around in July? I know they are doing a bit better cash structure wise, but basically what I am saying is, would you risk two paid buisness or restricted F fares (plus your honeymoon) on it?

Thanks in advance for your advice. :)

Give it a year max... buenas noches US Airways!

It's my understanding that USAirways' financial gurus have calculated that they lose money on each and every flight but they can make up for that with volume. :p