US Airways Dividend Miles (Pre-2005 America West merger) - People are noticing

Call it what you will -- more and more FTers are suddenly paying attention to the US Forum. We know that US has many fewer DM members than some of the bigger legacy carriers; however, I checked a few minutes ago and there were 86 people viewing the US forum, 94 UA, 75 DL, and 70 AA. This forum is usually in the 20s and 30s. We've got their attention -- let's make it positive. Assuming that the real world is the same as FT (I'm sure it isn't, but humor me) -- US needs to come out now while people are paying attention with something big. If any US management are lurking -- you have a good audience here. Try us. You've got to try to right this ship!!!

US needs to come out now while people are paying attention with something bigOh, I am confident that they will come out with something big; it is called Chapter 7. Sorry to be so negative, but it is just a fact of life. Anyone believing anything else is in a state of denial. After the fiasco of the past few days this airline is toast. Stick a fork in it, it's done.

People are watching, but it's not the kind of watching US would want. It's the same kind of morbid fascination people get when there's a car wreck.

People are watching, but it's not the kind of watching US would want. It's the same kind of morbid fascination people get when there's a car wreck.

I know. I almost titled this "People are noticing -- we are like Nascar." Just waiting for an accident.

People are watching, but it's not the kind of watching US would want. It's the same kind of morbid fascination people get when there's a car wreck.

Exactly. The same reason news ratings went up when the networks air the Tsunami videos.

BTW, in light of recent events, I would modify my original FT predictions as to the probability of a US shutdown and liquidation as follows:

50% within the next 30 days (no change)
80% within the next 60 days (+20%)
90% within the next 90 days (+30%)

Again, this is only a prediction, I do not wish ill upon any US employees and I certainly hope that all of the displaced workers find better employment quickly.

Well, I admit I'm an "outsider" following events in the US forum for no other reason than to observe while I wait to collect on a combined $1,600 in bets wagered over a year ago - back in November of 2003 - that US would go belly up between Feb 1, 2005 and May 1, 2005. Back then, one could find people willing to make wagers on this still (especially among my fellow MBA cohorts).

While I wish no one at US ill will - in fact, coming from the travel industry, I have numerous friends that work throughout the various travel industry sectors, including US - I really think this is playing out on target. Though I would really have expected greater employee mischief towards the end than has been witnessed so far.

This all brings back memories of flying Panam and Eastern all the way to the end, including those fantastic roughly $19 OW Eastern shuttle fares from DCA to LGA near the end that really jacked up my miles in OnePass, which I felt safe doing since the miles had a safe harbor on the Continental side. 10 shuttle roundtrips over a weekend with minimum 1K per segment, triple miles, and shuttle mile bonuses really added up to a lot of bang for the buck! Ah, those were the days. Too bad US and UA are not joined to the extent that EA and CO were through OnePass.

Unfortunately for you, I think you will probably lose that bet as I doubt US will make it to the end of January. With other airlines having sales right now, why would one book on US? No sales, no revenue, no airline.

Unfortunately for you, I think you will probably lose that bet as I doubt US will make it to the end of January. With other airlines having sales right now, why would one book on US? No sales, no revenue, no airline.

Wow, end of January. I didn't think it would happen THAT fast.

Wow, end of January. I didn't think it would happen THAT fast.

Let's not rush and consider one poster an expert.

Let's not rush and consider one poster an expert.

EspeciAAly just one poster. :)

-JC

That is absolutely right, I am no expert. Nor am I a regular flyer of US any more. My last flight was last year on a paid discounted FC ticket for a pleasure trip. I got a fantastic deal, great price! Got on the plane, got my boxed lunch, literally in a cardboard box with paper napkin and was served my drink in a nice plastic cup.

Now what amazes me about these posts are the people getting excited about the 20k bonus miles they are going to get. I get the distinct feeling that these people, and a few others, actually believe US will survive. This absolutely amazes me, how we can get blinded by our allegiances and hopes. Trust me I know from experience. Different situation, but I, like many others held on to stock back in 2000 and 2001 because I believed the company was good, and provided an excellent product. Those companies are now gone along with mine and others' investments. Now, why do I bring this up. Well you live and learn.

Soon as US management realizes the is no hope of survival then a decision will be made. If they are self-centered management then they will milk the meal ticket until they are forced to go chapter 7, cutting everything but their own salaries and benefits. I have seen this scenario way too often. Enron and WCOM come to mind. If, on the other hand, they have a sense of responsibility to their employees, creditors, and customers they will go chapter 7 at the point they realize that they are a at a point of no return. You ask, how will going Chapter 7 benefit employees and customers? Uncertainty and turmoil like this past weekend is just a sign of more to come from disenfranchised employees. Employees are in a lose-lose situation. I am sure many are looking for alternate employment already which may result in staffing problems in the near future. It is better to cut there losses and move on. I am sure many of them are holding on to hope that their employer will be there in the weeks to come, but they are being torn up with uncertainty of pending unemployment. While actual unemployment may be tough, at least they won't be experiencing the emotional turmoil that many I am sure are at the current time. Not only that but additional disruptions and inconveniences will occur and affect customers as management cuts more corners and trims more services and deals with more and more staffing issues.

Just MHO based on previous experiences, I am no expert.

I guess I fall into one of the FTers who are watching the situation a little more closely, and the activity on this board.

First of all, I feel I need to say this because the following may look like some US bashing. I harbor no ill will towards anyone at US or those that support them. It is never a good thing for a large number of workers to be suddenly thrown out onto the proverbal street. I have flown US a few times. They have been good to me. And yes I know that my airline is also in big trouble, and has many hurdles to clear. And to make things clear. I do not think a US liquidation will help UA at all. If anything it may make things worse for them.

Now for my analysis. I think US is on its last legs. Will it make it past January? I have serious doubts. There are too many hurdles in this month that i just cannot see them making. The $100 million in additional capital is not going to come into US in the current situation. Thus US needs $100mil in cost cuts. (If what I read is correct, this doesn't include the revised labor contracts). I just cannot seeing them cutting that much more from their costs that quickly, unless oil crashes. If they cannot make these cuts, then the GE deal falls through.

Then there is the ATSB. How long are they going to let US keep going with taxpayer money. While the taxpayers haven't put any money into US, with gaurentees it is very likely they may. ATSB may pull the plug to protect the taxpayers from taking as big a hit as it could.

Then there are the labor issues. No one knows or can acurately predict what labor is going to do. We know that some groups have agreed to consessions. Some are probably going to force the judge to do it. Either way how long will labor stay calm is a big question. If the Christmas meltdown is organized, then US is in big trouble. If it is a few wildcats then it may be salvagable. However, I see the come work for free pitch as a veiled threat by management that they don't have money to even pay wages. My guess, and it is only a guess, is that labor sees the writing on the walls, and is thinking it is better to be on the street now rather than later. One more sick out and US is done.

Looking at things from this prosepective, there are too many variables that are working against US. I don't know who will be the one that forces the shutdown, labor, GE or ATSB. All of these milestones occur in January. Someone is likely to pull the plug because the return just isn't there anytime soon. However, if US can survive through January with decent labor, then they may make it out of the woods of Chapter 11.

Now what does the end result of this do for the traveling public. The more negative in the press and the travel agents, the worse it will be for US. More and more people will book away. The long term bookings will crash. These are the bookings that US needs to survive. These short term intrest free loans are needed. If people only book a couple weeks out they are not going to have the cash to keep flying. In the end I give US about a 10% chance of making it through January, after that I give them a 25% chance of emerging from chapter 11.

That is just one opinion. I want US to survive, but I have my doubts.

I am viewing US forum because I have award ticket to FCO in February + 30000M left. I see, I have 10% to use them :rolleyes: .