US Airways Dividend Miles (Pre-FlightFund Merger) - JetBlue?

Not to rain on anyone's parade by guessing who might step in to take remaining business from US on the East Coast, but who do we think will be the most likely prospects?

In the Southeast, both Jetblue and United could have a stronger presense, but JetBlue is obviously more financially capable of picking up the slack.

PS - when responding, indicate how many miles you have left on US.

There's nothing obvious in this business.

JetBlue doesn't have the planes, the crews, the hub or the business model to replace US Air. If this had been a year from now, they still wouldn't have the hub or the business model, even once their EMB-190s come on line.

When US Air goes (and the last 72 hours have moved that from "if" to "when"), I wouldn't be surprised if a significant number of cities lose their scheduled air service - or all service except 1-2x daily to ORD & ATL.

Expect Southwest to cherry pick us routes won, out in mdw on ata loss. International routes not so sure maybe split between other majors out of IAD,NWK,JFK, until someone fills the void at PHL dont think any takers on US baggage handlers.

I was hoping JetBlue would take over from US, but I agree Southwest is in better position to take over.

I was hoping JetBlue would take over from US, but I agree Southwest is in better position to take over.

I dread either of them. Won't fly them. SW would definitly increase PHL flights but would not take over US's route system. US flies to many cities SW doesn't serve and don't fit within it's business model. JetBlue maybe would come in but again - limited routes. AirTran would probably add as well. PHL would probably loose hub status though - no major has the ability to come in and take up where US left off. I would expect an increased presence from the remaining 5 legacies. There would have to be - there's business and they need it. I am one of those who will not fly LCC's. Just praying US makes it through.

I dread either of them. Won't fly them. SW would definitly increase PHL flights but would not take over US's route system. US flies to many cities SW doesn't serve and don't fit within it's business model. JetBlue maybe would come in but again - limited routes. AirTran would probably add as well. PHL would probably loose hub status though - no major has the ability to come in and take up where US left off. I would expect an increased presence from the remaining 5 legacies. There would have to be - there's business and they need it. I am one of those who will not fly LCC's. Just praying US makes it through.

I agree, PHL will no longer be a hub - SW will expand its operations and the rest of the gates will be split amongst the rest of the airlines that fly in to PHL.

Expect Southwest to cherry pick us routes won, out in mdw on ata loss. International routes not so sure maybe split between other majors out of IAD,NWK,JFK, until someone fills the void at PHL dont think any takers on US baggage handlers.

I heard that at one point NW was interested in the international routes from PHL (to the point of having planes ready to pick up the routes if US shut down), though I don't know if that's to route from PHL or just the various landing slots at the European airports. Since then NW joined SkyTeam and KLM merged with AF, so that might not be nearly as interesting to them as before.

JetBlue doesn't have the planes, the crews, the hub or the business model to replace US Air. If this had been a year from now, they still wouldn't have the hub or the business model, even once their EMB-190s come on line.

When US Air goes (and the last 72 hours have moved that from "if" to "when"), I wouldn't be surprised if a significant number of cities lose their scheduled air service - or all service except 1-2x daily to ORD & ATL.

Don't know much about the EMB's that US has, but B6 does fly A320 and not knowing the numbers that US has in their fleet that would be a good fit for B6. Now of course the A320's are similar to the A319 just capacity differences so in reality with the 319/320's there would be a very good fit for B6 sans of course that US has them configured for two class service without the fancy TV system that B6 has but that can be retrofitted on the aircraft.

So, I would not count B6 out of the cherry picking of US if and when the do need to liquidate.

No current airline will "take over" or purchase USAirways. US Airways, as a business entity is a failure and a money pit.

Absorb US in whole....NO.

Cherry Pick the profitable routes....YES.

No current airline will "take over" or purchase USAirways. US Airways, as a business entity is a failure and a money pit.

Absorb US in whole....NO.

Cherry Pick the profitable routes....YES.


Agreed. However, win the bidding is over and and the dust is settled. Southwest will get PHL,CLT and Continental will get LGA (back) and DCA.

No current airline will "take over" or purchase USAirways. US Airways, as a business entity is a failure and a money pit.

Absorb US in whole....NO.

Cherry Pick the profitable routes....YES.

I agree

JetBlue willl take the LaGuardia terminal. They are running out of room at JFK, and have already put some Florida flights at LGA. Most carriers believe CLT is too small. Not enough dedicated traffic. Take the connecting passengers out, and it's just another nice, mid sized station. Delta will be the big winner from that, as the pressure comes off ATL, and they go back to screwing the residents of the southeastern USA, a practice they have perfected over the years. That will give AirTran a chance to raise its prices, and still be a little cheaper. Nobody will want the PHL hub. For openers, it's too close to NYC, and BWI. There's still an outside chance they cut an ATA type deal with somebody like
Southwest, but all that amounts to is a phased liquidation. It's more than a little ironic that the whacked operation at Philly has landed them on the front page of the Sunday New York Times, and triggered serious government scrutiny. I have said from the beginning that failure to bring that place under control would do them in.

JetBlue willl take the LaGuardia terminal. They are running out of room at JFK, and have already put some Florida flights at LGA. Most carriers believe CLT is too small. Not enough dedicated traffic. Take the connecting passengers out, and it's just another nice, mid sized station. Delta will be the big winner from that, as the pressure comes off ATL, and they go back to screwing the residents of the southeastern USA, a practice they have perfected over the years. That will give AirTran a chance to raise its prices, and still be a little cheaper. Nobody will want the PHL hub. For openers, it's too close to NYC, and BWI. There's still an outside chance they cut an ATA type deal with somebody like
Southwest, but all that amounts to is a phased liquidation. It's more than a little ironic that the whacked operation at Philly has landed them on the front page of the Sunday New York Times, and triggered serious government scrutiny. I have said from the beginning that failure to bring that place under control would do them in.


Yes, failure to control PHL is the final straw that broke the preverbial camel's back, although it started with overpaying for PI back in 1987.

However, I believe that before it is over, US will sell the LGA assets to Virgin America - in an ATA type deal.

[QUOTE=deelmakur]JetBlue willl take the LaGuardia terminal. They are running out of room at JFK, and have already put some Florida flights at LGA.


Only if CO sub-lents it to them,as they where forced to due with US when they were in BK years ago. Given the hold it would now afford them on NYC today when combined with EWR I doubt CO plans anything other than a swift flood of ERJs and 737s.

Are you sure CO is still on that lease? They tried using the terminal briefly after EA folded, but I thiink they were out of bankruptcy by then. Beyond that, I would think they don't want to do things which might dilute the Newark operation. With JetBlue looking to grow, letting them do that at LGA, in a perverse way, keeps them out of EWR. As for Virgin America, I don't get that one. They have put their HQ in California, thanks to some local incentives, but the traffic opportunities are East. They were also conspicuously absent from the ATA scramble. Under current regs, they need a majority USA stockholder. Under that microscope, I would envision joint venturing with some sort of existing product., like America West. The real opportunity for them is a deal with a current operator who is in trouble with their banks. Unlike RSA, most financial organizations don't want to own operating businesses, but they will call the shots behind the scenes. The oft maligned Mr. Wolf was installed at least twice like that, at Republic and Flying Tiger, and Citibank put USAir into the Trump Shuttle. Branson & Co. would be seen as such an opportunity, under a scenario such as that.

Maybe Im in the minority but I pray that jetblue takes over a great deal of US's routes, esp at LGA. I agree that Jetblue is running out of room at Terminal 6 at JFK. I mean, comfortable, reliable travel is my #1 objective and the experiences Ive had on Jetblue reflect that. The leather seats, the extra legroom and the IFE work for me...oh and a decent fare, not gouging. Sure their FF program is average at best, but 1) it could very well change if a major od two dissapears and 2) As much as I love miles, Im sick of flyig incompetent airlines that screw up my travel plans and have scraglly agents who could care less about their paying customers.

I'd be curious to see which routes Jetblue goes after. I think they are a player in this and dont see CO loading up at LGA. I could see an even split between airtran and jetblue.

Sorry legacy snobs, this is the future for air travel at leats for the next 5-10 yrs. I have a nice FF option w/ NWA and skyteam, so I have no issues splitting my travel w/ NWA and Jetblue.

US does have some profitable routes, so I agree with the cherry-picking. PHL will definitely lose its hub status when (not if) US liquidates. However, I think PHL can become a profitable hub if managed properly (even with SWA) since it's 1 of 5 biggest cities in USA. The greater metropolitan Philly area extends far beyond its city borders with potential for numerous passengers. As for its proximity to NYC, many people don't want the hassle of NYC traffic, not to mention the tolls for bridges/tunnels and sky high parking rates (except for EWR). Since I am currently based in PHL, I certainly hope US can survive. However, with so much negative publicity almost on a monthly basis (at least it seems like it), US is most likely history.

LAX

I just hope they get out of the way soon, so I can be resigned to taking nearly hourly shuttles to either Chicago or Atlanta (that's the build up I expect in PIT)

And maybe a couple of flights on JetBlue if we're lucky to JFK

I wouldn't discount CLT as a hub quite yet, even is US goes under, it is an excellent airport. Two long parellel runways that allow for simultaneous operations, a large terminal in fairly good shape, high yield business travelers and few weather problems like you can get from about DC on north. Do keep in mind that B6 is going to be getting ALOT of new aircraft in the next few years and will need to fly them out of somwhere and JFK is starting to get full, especially until their terminal is completed.

In PHL someone will pick up the slack. As much as the airport sucks on the ground and in the air being smack in the middle of some of the nations busiest airspace it is a huge market. I would expect WN and FL to divy up a good chunk of the market the way they did at BWI and are doing in PHL right now. FL will fly to the smaller cities that WN doesn't servce (SRQ, MIA, ROC etc) and WN will go to their important cities (LAX, HOU, LAS etc) and the two of them will split the large markets (FLL, MCO, maybe MDW etc). Also awhile back I heard that NW had an interest in PHL this is/was a RUMOR and I make no promises regarding its accuracy.

For DCA, LGA, & BOS I would expect a rabid dog fight that will make the fight over ATA and MDW look nice and civilized. Said fight will include (assuming they have cash) AA, DL, CO, NW, WN, FL, B6, NK, AS, HP, UA and maybe even a startup or two that sees this as a wonderful chance to get a foothold in a very lucrative market.

I doubt that anyone will make a signifigant move for PIT. It has in reality been open for over a year now and not a single airline has made a signifigant move into the market. Were US to go under I think we would see increased frequency to the hubs (ORD, DTW, ATL etc) by other airlines. Also maybe an FL or NK starting service to FL and some other major lesiure markets.

If the FLL focus city gets going and generates decent loads and revenues I can definitely see NK keeping their MD-80s in service that they currently plan to retire and taking over the US route authorities and possiblely some domestic service (read BOS and additional LGA slots) to enlarge their own operation at FLL and in Latin America. Although I imagine that AA would respond in some way to the downfall of the FLL focus city I think it is too early to be able to predict the response of AA especially seeing as how they are taking flights out of FLL including closing the SDQ and CCS routes.

The real question mark in my eyes is what is going to happen with the cities that US serves under the Essential Air Service Act and other small communites where US is the primary carrier and they operate turboprops in the markets because jets simply cannot make money. Only three other majors have a signifigant number of turboprops east of the Mississippi. NW from DTW and MEM, UA from IAD, and CO with its Continental Connection service in FL and the Northeast and CLE. These smaller towns and cities I think will be hurting for air service for quite awhile until some steps up the plate and offers them service with smaller aircraft.

I wouldn't discount CLT as a hub quite yet, even is US goes under, it is an excellent airport. Two long parellel runways that allow for simultaneous operations, a large terminal in fairly good shape, high yield business travelers and few weather problems like you can get from about DC on north. Do keep in mind that B6 is going to be getting ALOT of new aircraft in the next few years and will need to fly them out of somwhere and JFK is starting to get full, especially until their terminal is completed.

CLT is one of the best airports on the East Coast. Easy to maneuver in and out of (and inside), and very little weather issues.. Plus as the headquarters for Bank of America, and one of the largest banking regions in the country, there is a fair amount of dedicated travel in/out of Charlotte. Lufthansa Air already has a pretty substantial presence there. Could they possibly increase their number of flights to make it their international hub?

I like Southwest for the ease of use, and wouldn't mind if it were JetBlue or Southwest. Jetblue doesn't have many flights around the SE right now, so I could see them coming in. Or maybe CLT will just get divvied up between all the carriers, which would actually be good for the city.

I don't think that DL will takeover CLT, it's too close to ATL, and they are already building more runways there as it is..

The only carriers with hubs in the SouthEast is DL in ATL. UA's hub in DUL is more Mid-Atlantic, because it really is at the MasonDixon line.

I could see AA or CO coming in to CLT, either of which would be OK.

It seems that over the past few years Southwest has been lurking US like the grim reaper. They aggresively decided to go after metrojet operation in BWI and crushed them. Then they decide to move into the philly mkt, the writing is on the wall, and cudos to the mgmt team at southwest hope they pick up the loyal hardworkers at US and blacklist kamikaze workers.

No one will take the Charlotte hub. Too small. It does not meet today's requirements, that it also support origination and destination traffic. Raleigh and Nashville met similar fates, and NWA has greatly reduced Memphis. B of A, following the NationsBank purchase of it, did relocate to Charlotte, but I am not aware that caused any increase in the number of flights to San Francisco. They have private planes. Unlike those of us among the great unwashed, they have no need for TSA to fondle their luggage (or anything else).

B of A, following the NationsBank purchase of it, did relocate to Charlotte, but I am not aware that caused any increase in the number of flights to San Francisco. They have private planes.

GSK has private planes as well, but that doesn't mean that the majority of employees are not flying on Swest or US from RDU up to Philly...

No one will take the Charlotte hub. Too small. It does not meet today's requirements, that it also support origination and destination traffic. Raleigh and Nashville met similar fates, and NWA has greatly reduced Memphis. B of A, following the NationsBank purchase of it, did relocate to Charlotte, but I am not aware that caused any increase in the number of flights to San Francisco. They have private planes. Unlike those of us among the great unwashed, they have no need for TSA to fondle their luggage (or anything else).

A few Bank of America execs may be flying around on corporate jets, but also have thousand of people flying to and from Charlotte weekly, and at the most inflated fares I've seen in any market. Even with 14+ day advance, try and go anywhere from CLT for less than $750 without a Sat stay!

I still do not see that the number of flights from CLT to the west coast has increased. In fact, if recollection serves me, I seem to remember several 767 trips, which no longer exist. On the subject of B of A, which I am no expert on, I do seem to recall that between Californians uninterested in NASCAR, and Carolinians not interested in Californians not interested in NASCAR, not a whole lot of people moved east in that deal. Speaking anecdotally, it seems to me that many jobs went the other way, including a lot of credit card servicing. What a pleasure to work with those folks in Phoenix, versus the dodobrains we used to have to deal with in Norfolk.

I have a question about IND and Republic Airways/Chautauqua Airlines - If US is gone can Chautauqua continues their regional flights (i.e. IND - LGA) as an independent carrier??

routes: http://www.rjet.com/Destinations.asp#

I have a question about IND and Republic Airways/Chautauqua Airlines - If US is gone can Chautauqua continues their regional flights (i.e. IND - LGA) as an independent carrier??

routes: http://www.rjet.com/Destinations.asp#

On the operational backend, I'd say yes. They have the planes, the crews, the maint, crew scheduling, etc.

On the frontend, I don't know. I dont know them enough to say if they have their own Res system like ComAir or other carriers. They'd also need frontline cust service employees and such line phone res, etc.

-JC

On the operational backend, I'd say yes. They have the planes, the crews, the maint, crew scheduling, etc.

On the frontend, I don't know. I dont know them enough to say if they have their own Res system like ComAir or other carriers. They'd also need frontline cust service employees and such line phone res, etc.

-JC
For airports like DCA and LGA it also depends on who owns the slots. If Republic owns them then there is no problem, but if US owns them I would imagine that the slots would be allocated using the DOT's distribution system. This is why DH does not fly IAD-LGA, UA owned the LGA slots that DH used during the UALEX days.

I think, in my admittedly biased opinion, that DCA is the most interesting situation here.

The government has made a clear effort to support smaller carriers at DCA, for example awarding transcons to Alaska Airlines over bids from US, UA, etc. If US goes, the largest airline at DCA folds, and takes out service to a huge network of cities along the East Coast, everything from the highly profitable Shuttle flights to NYC and Boston to the constant rush of RJs (and smaller) to smaller markets like Burlington, Albany, Rochester, Birmingham, Wilmington, Knoxville, etc.

The slots will all have to be reassigned, and I think you'll see a whole mess of companies apply for certain ones, to the major markets, and certainly for the Shuttle (though I think that US might end up desperately selling off that Shuttle to raise cash as the ship sinks). But who will end up taking those flights to the smaller markets, and will they all go to the same carrier?

I can't imagine the government allocating all, or even most, of those slots to one carrier, even though it absolutely makes the most sense to do so, to allow a carrier to help DCA retain some semblance of hub/focus city status so that passengers can easily connect through it (even though it's not meant as a connecting airport with the way you have to cross security lines to go from pier to pier). But who would be best served to pick them up? I think Continental makes sense for many of them, or Delta because of their presence already in the Southeast. I'd love to see American really build up in DC, but I doubt UA would, since they already are so strong at IAD. We'll never see something like Southwest in DCA, but I could envision Airtran really going for broke at DCA, esp. after they lost out on the allocation of ATA at Midway.

JetBlue at DCA might happen, but it's a bit of a pipe dream I think to imagine them picking up the entire network from US. They will cherry pick the routes they want, if they move into this market, but given the limited presence they have at IAD, they don't seem interested in a major DC-area push. JetBlue on the Shuttle routes, however, would be absolutely amazing - if they were to move in here offering PTVs, great service, etc., from here to LGA and BOS, wow, they'd sure as heck pull in the traffic, I bet they'd really be able to expand on US' market share on this in competition with Delta/AA.

I have a question about IND and Republic Airways/Chautauqua Airlines - If US is gone can Chautauqua continues their regional flights (i.e. IND - LGA) as an independent carrier??

routes: http://www.rjet.com/Destinations.asp#



ABSOLUTELY! Chautauqua also has a contract with DL for commuter work. They're a lot like Skywest in that respect. Skywest handles both UA and DL. Ch handles both DL and US. So it wouldn't be unheard of for it to continue and contract either more with DL or with another carrier.

US does have some profitable routes, so I agree with the cherry-picking. PHL will definitely lose its hub status when (not if) US liquidates. However, I think PHL can become a profitable hub if managed properly (even with SWA) since it's 1 of 5 biggest cities in USA. The greater metropolitan Philly area extends far beyond its city borders with potential for numerous passengers. As for its proximity to NYC, many people don't want the hassle of NYC traffic, not to mention the tolls for bridges/tunnels and sky high parking rates (except for EWR). Since I am currently based in PHL, I certainly hope US can survive. However, with so much negative publicity almost on a monthly basis (at least it seems like it), US is most likely history.

LAX

Well, forget about when or if US goes under--are PHL area travelers that are fed up with either US or PHL airport deserting to use EWR or BWI now..?

Service will almost certainly keep on going to the EAS cities (hence the word "essential"), but the flights may end up coming from a different city. So if there's an EAS route of out PIT and that regional signs up with Delta, then the EAS service may end up being from CVG (or maybe even CMH) instead.

ABSOLUTELY! Chautauqua also has a contract with DL for commuter work. They're a lot like Skywest in that respect. Skywest handles both UA and DL. Ch handles both DL and US. So it wouldn't be unheard of for it to continue and contract either more with DL or with another carrier.I think that an airline like Chautauqua that works with both US and other carriers (in this case AA, UA, and DL!!) is in great shape for these kind of routes. I would imagine that AA would be willing to let them keep flying IND-LGA and IND-BOS under the AA umbrella.