US Airways Dividend Miles (Pre-FlightFund Merger) - Fred Freshwater is an Idiot

Ok, perhaps those are strong words, but increasingly they seem true. Is this guy lost in the 1970s? Does he still think he is part of a regulated market with revenue protection? If any person is singlehandly responsible for snatching liquidation from the jaws of reorganziation, its this guy. "Once proud profession." This seems to be a guy really full of himself.

I once worked for an elected official. He used to tell us, "look around this office, this room. Everyone in here, including me, is replacable. There isn't a person alive that can't be replaced usually by someone cheaper and better or just as good." That recognition informed all of our work habits. Apparently Fred Freshwater didn't get the memo.

Neo-Luddites exist in all aspects of our society. As events around them move more quickly, they often are unable to demonstrate any adaptive capacity. Historically, the results have included futile attempts at anarchy in order to slow the changes that will make them irrelevant.

Some members of the mechanics and pilots groups at US Airways are providing an interesting case study. Freshwater is probably not an idiot; just someone who finds himself less able to maintain his position in the organizational society that is the airline industry.

From a purely economic standpoint, the compression in the range of pilot salaries indicates an oversupply, lack of transferable skills and/or perceived reduction in value for the service.

I do disagree with the OP in the assertion that Freshwater may be "singlehandedly responsible for snatching liquidation from the jaws of reorganization". Dr. Bronner salted that title away a long time ago.

...I do disagree with the OP in the assertion that Freshwater may be "singlehandedly responsible for snatching liquidation from the jaws of reorganization". Dr. Bronner salted that title away a long time ago.

I guess this is the lone area in which Freshwater and Bronner are playing on the same team...

I guess this is the lone area in which Freshwater and Bronner are playing on the same team...

Not really. Freshwater seems to think it's going to happen anyway, and wants to maximize return for the pilot group in the interim.

Not really. Freshwater seems to think it's going to happen anyway, and wants to maximize return for the pilot group in the interim.

I was being facetious... I suppose to be more precise I should have specified that the "team" was "stakeholders who seem to be acting to hasten liquidation whether they desire it or not".

I agree that Freshwater appears to view liquidation as inevitable. I personally would question his apparent assumption that fighting any accommodation with management will yield the highest economic return to pilots, given that accommodation would lead to lower pay in the immediate term but the potential of liquidation being could be further off (if they enable the airline to live 23% longer they come out even gross revenue-wise), or an at least slightly larger probablility of a recovery or sale that would involve continued employment as pilots for his members. It would seem to me that his actions are driven more by emotion than the cold, objective analysis of their situation that should be expected of someone in his position.

To circle back to the title of this thread, Freshwater is an idiot.

Labor has been giving and giving and giving and it's just not enough.

Perhaps they feel, rightly or wrongly, that if they stop capitulating, that maybe management will do something other then keep demanding that they give more and more.

Perhaps they feel that there is enough "enlightened self-interest" amongst all the parties other then labor to prevent a liquidation that, at the eleventh hour, when the lawyers are drafting the C7 motions, that someone else will "blink" and liquidation can be avoided.

And if it can't, well they probably figure that they will eventually be required to give so much away to avert liquidation that they'd be working for free, anyway. *shrug*

I personally would question his apparent assumption that fighting any accommodation with management will yield the highest economic return to pilots, given that accommodation would lead to lower pay in the immediate term but the potential of liquidation being could be further off (if they enable the airline to live 23% longer they come out even gross revenue-wise)

Actually this is a fallacy. If your pay is cut 23%, it has to enable the airline to surive 30% longer for you to reach breakeven gross pay wise. Even then you are behind as you have higher living expenses over the longer horizon.

Funny the way the math works. It's like the loony tunes that bought tech stocks in March 2000 when the Nasdaq was at 5000. At 2000 the Nasdaq is only down 60% - but has to rise 150% for them to break even. And even then those people are behind because they could have been invested in something with a positive return over the period 2000 until whenever the Nasdaq hits 5000 again.