US Airways Dividend Miles (Pre-FlightFund Merger) - Envoy UGs at Thanksgiving

I've searched to find an answer to this and didn't find one from last year. What are people's experiences using their transatlantic upgrade certs on the busy days around Thanksgiving? I'm putting together a little trip to DXB (Dubai) during the Thanksgiving holiday and wondering how CPs did in previous years upgrading to Europe. Would leave the Tuesday or Wednesday before T-day and return on Sunday or Monday.
Flying to FRA or MUC are my preferences -I'm hoping to pay and upgrade the transatlantic portion on US, then use miles to go from Europe to DXB on LH (I don't think any other European *Alliance carriers fly to DXB.) Seems like a better value $$ and mileage wise. But I'm interested in anyone's comments as in theory I could fly from any European city serviced by US to the UAE on the award ticket.

I upgraded as a US4 on Thanksgiving Day flying PHL-LGW using the SA certs no problem. The cabin looked to be full of people that had upgraded.

Last year as a US3 I cleared at check-in for LGW-PHL the Monday following Thanksgiving. Since I didn't have to wait until the gate, I got to go through priority security lane and use the Envoy Lounge. My impression was that the flight was packed and they needed my Y seat for someone else. Envoy was full! (And everyone in the UK wants to upgrade the guy in the bowtie--I look so darn charming! :D )

Thanksgiving is NOT a heavy travel time for business travelers.

I checked in at DCA one Thanksgiving morning and the agent said I was the first Preferred they'd seen all day.... "Not many of you regulars on the road this time of year..."

I'd say your chances are GOOD! ^

I agree with the sentiments posted. Short of an operational problem the day prior, I'd look to clear at the window, and certainly at the "unofficial" 3-day window to have the CP folks call inventory.

FRA might prove problematic only if US yanks the PIT-FRA flight before then and has to rebook folks. I'd still feel OK as a CP

The days before and after (turkey day), however, might prove interesting, although I've personally been batting 90%+ on upgrades over the pond as a CP (20+ trips in the last few years). Pretty good average as a gold, as well.

I like your strategy of what to buy and what to burn (miles for, that is). In this regard, I'd choose FRA--if you don't clear the upgrade you can at least get by in the back of the 330, which is not the end of the world. I'd rather swim that sit in the back of the 767 :p .

Travel just prior to Thanksgiving is generally pretty light going overseas in Envoy, as most of the US biz travellers who pay $$ for those seats are not travelling~~ on the other hand the Sun & Mon just after the holiday can be a very busy time in both cabins.
That said, in years past a number of carriers have offered 'sale business class' fares to Europe over this period, and while you can't be certain as to when (or if) they'll be announced, if you're flexible it may pay to wait.