MilesBuzz! - Bump chances at Christmas??

HI! This is my first post on flyertalk. All of you seem to be very knowledgable about all this stuff so I thought I would give it a try! As the subject implies, I am wondering what the chances of my flights being overbooked this Christmas. I am leaving Dec. 23 on the following route:

MSP-MEM (NW DC-10)
MEM-IAH (NW DC-9)
IAH-PHX (CO MD-80)

I am fairly new to all this and this will be my first time flying around Christmas so I have no idea about what to expect! Thanks!

In my experience, bumping isnt an exact science. You certainly can make the most of your chances by:
1. Showing up an hour and a half early to check in for your flight.
2. Volunteering to get bumped when you check in.
3. Being polite the whole time.
4. Only having carry on luggage. (Not a must but makes it easier for you.)
5. Checking online (I'd recommend http://www.travelocity.com) and having a few alternative itineraries handy. (Again, not a must but makes it easier for you and the gate agent.)

I love getting bumped! I hope it works out well for you, too!

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Travel is a powerful antidote to contemporary American arrogance.

BTW: Welcome to the board! If you plan to stay around awhile, why don't you introduce yourself, and list your email address in your profile? P.S. Where is "Anytown?" http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/wink.gif

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Travel is a powerful antidote to contemporary American arrogance.

Christmas Day is usually wide open. The best days to get bumped are obviously the blackout days. You could look at the sites where you pick your seating and see how many are available. Good clue for bump action is when the seating assignment/boarding pass issue has switched to departure gate control or if previous flight cancelled. As the previous poster said, ask politely, but ask at the gate. I find the club CSRs and check-in agents are sometimes misinformed about flights being full. Sunday I took a bump after having a drink in 1st. Even after asking at the check-in, the airline club and at the gate, I overheard the F/A mention "volunteer" so I jumped up. It was a 2 hr wait to the next flight and I got a $400 voucher for RDU->ATL.

Knowing your itinerary and its alternatives will be important to you, since you have two layovers. There is nothing worse than being stuck at an airport when you want to be somewhere else, and you are certainly risking that if you accept compensation. Some airlines will only put you on a waitlist for your next flight and/or next connection (Delta ??)

If you are thinking of asking to be bumped at the layovers, be careful as they may not offer you accomodation (this is unusual, but sometimes they feel they have compensated you enough with the ticket !).

Depending on your market, your chances can be quite good. The brother of one our customers routinely buys a couple of full-fare refundable RDU-LAX tickets and plays the bump game.

He never really loses - if he's not on an oversold flight, he gets a refund.

His best year, he and his wife landed something like $5,000.

I would think that the folks who determine how many seats to sell probably have a few dates circled (Thanksgiving, Christmas) as days to oversell by fewer seats. For example if they typically oversell by 10% (pure guess!), that perhaps they'd only oversell by 5% if at all, simply because the travellers' plans are usually more urgent and less flexible (Christmas morning or bust!)

Also, looking at your itineraries, they are all hubs and MSP/IAH/PHX are larger markets. Even if things are NOT oversold, expect chaos, especially if weather problems arise.

I've OBSERVED (and by no means am I an expert) that oversolds tend to be more common on :

1) smaller aircraft.
2) smaller markets.

For example: My IAH-OKC flight on CO on Monday was oversold as was my DFW-OKC flight on AA on Tuesday. Both were regional jet flights and neither was the first/last flight of the day.

I've seen a ton of oversold on American Eagle out of DFW. One night (when unfortuntely I could not take advantage of the offer) there were no fewer than 5 simulatanous gates asking for volunteers. Bidding got up to $500 for a DFW-AMA bump. It was like watching a giant game show.

Absolutely tell the agent at check-in that you are willing to bump, but even with Christmas, I'd be willing to bet they won't be oversold by much.

Bear in mind too that WHO gets the voucher is not necessarily in order!

Good luck.


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"I will not be pushed, filed, stamped, indexed, briefed, debriefed or numbered. My life is my own."

I agree with eastwest's points. A few(ok a few more than a few http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/smile.gif )additional thoughts:

Bumping is indeed an inexact science,
but certain rules do apply.

Airlines overbook because a certain percentage of passenger no-show(for whatever reason).

Now what makes a person no-show?

Illness?
Death in the family?
Traffic delays?
Oversleep?
Take an earlier flight?
Hit by a bus?
Change in plans?
Fully refundable ticket?

The type of ticket plays a role also. People on fully refundable tickets are more likely to non-show, or cancel, because they'll get a full refund.

The people flying those tickets tend to be business travellers, and they TEND not to be flying on the christmas holidays(at least not on the company's money). Most of the travellers that time of year are leisure passengers(flying on non-refundable tickets).

Thus the airlines will overbook less on those flights, since less people no-show.
Reducing your chances of being bumped.

One major cause of bumping is weight restrictions on planes. This typically happens on very hot summer afternoons. When the air temparture is very high, the air is thinner, thus providing less lift for the plane. This means the engines work harder, causing the need for more fuel. Since fuel is a significant wieght factor , it means less people can be on the plane. This means the flight must have empty seats, leading to bumping.

Of course Christmas is in the winter which means cancellations(however airlines are not responsible for the weather cancellations).
An interesting aside is Airlines seem to forget the weather limitation on responsibilty when it comes to weather related weight restrictions(I've never understood this, but have benefited from it
many times)

All in all, Christmas time is not the high season for bumping.

Some suggestions for you:

Call the airline, the day before, and ask if your flights are oversold. And if so, by how many seats. They will tell you this information. Check availability of other routings to PHX. You might get bumped and be able to get a non-stop msp-phx(if it has space) or maybe MSP-LAS-PHX or MSP-IAH-PHX. Of course, you could end up spending a few days getting bumped from flight to flight, collecting voucher and never getting to phx http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/smile.gif

Also, get a copy of the airline timetables for both CO and NW. I'd also suggest an america west timetable(since they are a NW and CO partner). This way, if you do get into a bump situation you'll be perpared with schedules for alternate flights.

If you find out your flight is oversold. Start calling CO,NW,and America West, to find out what alternate flights have seats and which ones are overbooked and by how much.

DON'T wait till you get to the airport to find this out. You have to make a decision on how much time you are willing to lose in exchange for your seat. Many people give up seats and then find they have no alternate routing available. Be prepared, information in king.

I had a bumpathon on America West in July, I was flying LAS-JFK, I got bumped 4 times in one day. http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/smile.gif It was a saturday, I didnt need to be home(the weather in NY was lousy anyway), so I gladly traded a day's time(I got to spend most of it on the strip rather tahn the airport anyway) for 4 free tickets.