Twitterpating
Jun 22, 01, 7:40 pm
Hello all! I'd like to pass along a radio interview of a journalist named James Fallows who writes for The Atlantic Monthly. Basically he talked about the trends in the airline industry for the next ~15 years.
He started off with issues that are already well publicized - capacity issues, airport growth vs. air traffic growth, etc. He then proposed to decentralize the industry away from the hubs that have evolved the past 20 years.
He called an "Air Taxi" system where smaller *jets* would start utilizing smaller aiports to shuttle people directly to their destination. This would shift traffic around the larger airports to reduce congestion, and provide more direct flights.
Aparantly, there have been some technical advancements to make smaller corporate-sized jets cheaper & safer. The cost to manufacture the actual engine has come down, guidance & weather related systems have improved, and there are simple low tech things like parachutes that can be incorporated into these planes. He was talking about planes on the order of $1 million apiece that are currently available.
He got into the business model for this type of system, and compared to the mainframe to PC shift 30 years ago.
From a cost standpoint he claimed flights could break even with only a couple of passengers per flight using current pricing of flights.
Personally, the appeal of this kind of system is nice: Go from A->B instead of A->B->(wait)->C. The business model could work, but I see some intermediate logistical problems.
First, of all the air traffic control and radar systems at all the smaller airports would have to be upgraded, and who'll pay for it and how long will it take. Second, there's the issue of support for the planes(maintainence crews in particular, and baggage handling crews). Flight attendants is more or less a luxury for a flight of 15-20 people. I'd be willing to pack my own food if it meant saving turn around time and cost.(How do you get a cart on a small plane and where do you put it?)
The biggest negative I see is a lack of pilots. I doubt that amatuer pilots would be willing to change careers, so that leaves the military to supply those pilots(which is already a problem for the military).
The pros would be at the airport level. You don't have to build gates(just walk out). Your baggage is less likely to get lost because you'll be flying directly, and maybe you could verify your check-in bags are accounted for before boarding. I wouldn't like to see people carrying there own bags out to the plane because that will turn tarmacs into supermarket parking lots with carts everywhere.
Aiports won't need lounges because there won't be transit passengers. Gate staff would hopefully be smaller(no bumps or missed connections). And hopefully pricing will be simpler because there are fewer seats.
Also, if severe weather is a problem then the impact won't be as widespread because you've gotten away from hubs and it's concentration of planes.
Anyway, I'd recommend listening to this interview(~20 minutes):
http://freshair.npr.org/dayFA.cfm?todayDate=06%2F18%2F2001
The link gives a summary of the interview, and includes a link to listen to it(Real Audio format). There should be an article in this month Atlantic Monthly by the interviewee.
I hope to get some reaction from pilots, and others familiar with airline logistics. Also, how would this kind of flying model sit with FFers. Air travel *should* become more of a commodity, because it would be ridiculous to have a unique price for each seat, let alone having more that one class. Could a FF program survive? How would you model it? Do you still need a FF program?
He started off with issues that are already well publicized - capacity issues, airport growth vs. air traffic growth, etc. He then proposed to decentralize the industry away from the hubs that have evolved the past 20 years.
He called an "Air Taxi" system where smaller *jets* would start utilizing smaller aiports to shuttle people directly to their destination. This would shift traffic around the larger airports to reduce congestion, and provide more direct flights.
Aparantly, there have been some technical advancements to make smaller corporate-sized jets cheaper & safer. The cost to manufacture the actual engine has come down, guidance & weather related systems have improved, and there are simple low tech things like parachutes that can be incorporated into these planes. He was talking about planes on the order of $1 million apiece that are currently available.
He got into the business model for this type of system, and compared to the mainframe to PC shift 30 years ago.
From a cost standpoint he claimed flights could break even with only a couple of passengers per flight using current pricing of flights.
Personally, the appeal of this kind of system is nice: Go from A->B instead of A->B->(wait)->C. The business model could work, but I see some intermediate logistical problems.
First, of all the air traffic control and radar systems at all the smaller airports would have to be upgraded, and who'll pay for it and how long will it take. Second, there's the issue of support for the planes(maintainence crews in particular, and baggage handling crews). Flight attendants is more or less a luxury for a flight of 15-20 people. I'd be willing to pack my own food if it meant saving turn around time and cost.(How do you get a cart on a small plane and where do you put it?)
The biggest negative I see is a lack of pilots. I doubt that amatuer pilots would be willing to change careers, so that leaves the military to supply those pilots(which is already a problem for the military).
The pros would be at the airport level. You don't have to build gates(just walk out). Your baggage is less likely to get lost because you'll be flying directly, and maybe you could verify your check-in bags are accounted for before boarding. I wouldn't like to see people carrying there own bags out to the plane because that will turn tarmacs into supermarket parking lots with carts everywhere.
Aiports won't need lounges because there won't be transit passengers. Gate staff would hopefully be smaller(no bumps or missed connections). And hopefully pricing will be simpler because there are fewer seats.
Also, if severe weather is a problem then the impact won't be as widespread because you've gotten away from hubs and it's concentration of planes.
Anyway, I'd recommend listening to this interview(~20 minutes):
http://freshair.npr.org/dayFA.cfm?todayDate=06%2F18%2F2001
The link gives a summary of the interview, and includes a link to listen to it(Real Audio format). There should be an article in this month Atlantic Monthly by the interviewee.
I hope to get some reaction from pilots, and others familiar with airline logistics. Also, how would this kind of flying model sit with FFers. Air travel *should* become more of a commodity, because it would be ridiculous to have a unique price for each seat, let alone having more that one class. Could a FF program survive? How would you model it? Do you still need a FF program?