Cathay Pacific Asia Miles - Is SARS over yet? I want to fly CX!

Just putting in an enlightening thread of the future! We will find out that this "thing" is contained, 75% of the "potential cases" were bogus and we can all go about our business!!

I think CX should cut-off all of CNN's programming on the CX AVOD systems as well! Can you imagine flying CX only to have its own AVOD system tell you to avoid it?? That will be a good kick in the pants! :-)

I have the same sentiments. I have fly AA to Europe this month due to the current media attention on this situation. I can't wait to fly back to Asia (next month, hopefully, if my company does not cancel my trip again!)

Unfortunately Hong Kong announced that yesterdays' SARS death toll (7) was the largest since the beginning of the epidemic and, not only that, but some of the deaths were younger people with no other medical complications. It's real sad (tragic actually), but I don't think we are quite out of the woods yet....

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/frown.gif

And then there was this article (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2945393.stm).

Once the media wipped hysteria has subsided and statistical analysis is done of deaths (age, existing mdical conditions), I think there will be a larger percentage of natural selection (against those susceptible to illness ie. medically weak, older age grouping).

If you are travelling to Asia, it's commonsense that prevails.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by Snoopy:
Unfortunately Hong Kong announced that yesterdays' SARS death toll (7) was the largest since the beginning of the epidemic </font>

Well yes, but the average death toll in HK from "normal" pneumonia is between 8 and 9 each and every day. And the average death toll from influenza and pneumonia each and every day in the USA is well over 150 (PER DAY).

More analysis with sources at http://home.so-net.com.hk/~pns/

This may be true, and I can only talk from experience having had it, I am not a doctor, but as far as I understand regluar pneumonia is not contagious (the cold that caused it is, but not the pneumonia itself) and therein lies a big difference.

I don't agree with the media frenzy either, however WHO did take unprecedented steps and I would see them more as a scientific body than a commercial body with an axe to grind.

But as someone said further up: common sense should be the order of the day.

http://www.etaiwannews.com/Editorial/2003/04/15/1050368200.htm
an interesting editorial

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by Snoopy:
regluar pneumonia is not contagious (the cold that caused it is, but not the pneumonia itself) and therein lies a big difference.
</font>

As I understand the term, "pneumonia" is always the symptom not the disease, and it is therefore never contagious per se.

According to the HK Medical Association (link on my site) the cause of about 50% of "community acquired pnuemonias" (i.e. the normal ones) is unknown.

And in response to the Marco Polo link above, that isn't an editorial in the true journalistic sense of the word, it is pure political posturing.

It could be argued, perhaps, that the SAR authorities were perhaps 48 hours slow to respond, however I don't now see any problem with their transparency. And it is is just plain wrong to claim that the HK Health Service is any less competent or professional than in any other first world "country".

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by christep:
And in response to the Marco Polo link above, that isn't an editorial in the true journalistic sense of the word, it is pure political posturing.</font>

can't agree more...

http://www.time.com/time/asia/covers/501030421/story.html

Revealing epidemic curve from World Health Org. showing decline in reported cases:

http://www.who.int/csr/sarsepicurve/epiindex/en/index1.html

the word is "reported"
versus "actual"
Just on HK TV News - "WHO officials today barred from visiting PLA Hospitals in Beijing" (where the majority of Northern China cases are)

Well maybe in the case of China there is some doubt over the figures, although it is clear Marco Polo that you have a huge grudge against the mainland for some reason.

But look at the equivalent graph for Hong Kong where I hope you will agree there is now plenty of data. Even then I am not sure how to reconcile the graph with the raw data coming from the Health Department press releases.

It is not so much as flying on CX that is the problem, but rather how one gets treated when getting off a plane from HongKong.

Many of us don't necessarily go to HK but rather to a destination beyond that. Many from North America continue onto planes like Thailand or Singapore. But the moment one gets off (if that can happen even), one gets 'grouped' into coming from a SARS infected city and one will get the questions, the medical checks etc.

THAT is the main deterrent in preventing people from flying CX via HKG!

"although it is clear Marco Polo that you have a huge grudge against the mainland for some reason."
who are you christep ? a fortune teller? I have no 'grudge' against the Mainland as you rudely imply. I have listed recent comment from diversified sources for people overseas to appraise or ignore as they wish. Here's another for those who are interested:
http://www.thestandard.com.hk/thestandard/news_detail_frame.cfm?articleid=38274&intcatid=1
The fact that the HK toll is now 56 dead and 3 normally healthy people in their 30's died here today of SARS is I believe somewhat significant. Also significant is that 6 million two way permit holders crossed the HK border from the Mainland in the last financial year and the numbers continue daily without any semblance of border incoming health checks in place.

I just come from a briefing with the director of a major hospital in Taiwan. The hospital now has 14 SARS cases. Numbers in Taiwan are steady, no deaths reported (which is a surprise to me, but not to the experts obviously).

Transcript of the briefing (omissions are mine, I couldn't type fast enough)

"SARS presents little problems for a developed health care system, and can be contained rather easily. [...] In Taiwan, Singapore and Canada, efficient response of the hospitals' own emergency system have prevented a communication of the virus in the community. Hong Kong's response was rather delayed, [...] and a number of other factors have contributed to the rapid increase of numbers. [...]

In China, however, I am afraid, the state of the health care system gives cause for concern. The average hospital has neither the ability to physically quarantine people, nor the common knowledge or experience to deal with an outbreak of this level. We have recalled hundreds of exchange doctors (from China to Taiwan, note is mine) in the past weeks, who all report that cases whose profiles are consistent with what we now call SARS have been reported as early as January 2002, primarily in the south of China. At that time, most patients died within 2-3 days, limiting the spread of the virus, which seems to have a weaker effect. It is also possible that simply a larger number of people already have developed antibodies. We are working with the WHO to provide information about the cases observed by Taiwanese doctors in China. The figures and facts reported by the Chinese authorities, that is for sure, are a gross underestimation of the severity of the situation. Our doctors, which as I said have all been recalled in the past weeks, estimate the number of actual cases may be around 50'000 for the provinces they worked in (note: mostly south China). [...]

[This message has been edited by mhtaipei (edited 04-15-2003).]

mhtaipei that is astounding news.
Population details - 3 main cities:
Guangzhou 10 million with 2.2 million transient workers / job seekers
Shanghai 13.2 million
Beijing 13.82 million

China 1,300 million

Hong Kong 6.72 million

HK SARS Deaths 56
China reported SARS deaths 64
hmmmmmmmm

Unfortunately, if you get SARS and die, statistics won't mean very much.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by Marco Polo:
mhtaipei that is astounding news.
Population details - 3 main cities:
Guangzhou 10 million with 2.2 million transient workers / job seekers
Shanghai 13.2 million
Beijing 13.82 million

China 1,300 million

Hong Kong 6.72 million

HK SARS Deaths 56
China reported SARS deaths 64
hmmmmmmmm

</font>

Just want to throw in the numbers that claim are SARS cases, when in fact they are "potential" SARS cases. ABC News in the USA threw that one in last night, when they said there were about 3300 SARS cases, then threw a left hook saying the USA has only 100 "potential" cases. Curious, why the word "potential" was left out of the 3200 others??
Is there any way to take more of Peter Jennings salary from him??

I was at the bank today for my next Asia business trip and all the overweight tellers kept saying with "aaahhen't ya scaaard uvv SAAAAHHHSS""?? Anyone have an accent problem, I responded with a smile??

"Flying to NRT", I said and they responded "Where's that"? I said "Arizona."

SHADO

Sad to say, I am increasingly seeing racial overtones to the coverage. If this disease had originated in the West, I suspect the coverage would be more balanced and less hysterical.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by SHADO:
I was at the bank today for my next Asia business trip and all the overweight tellers kept saying with "aaahhen't ya scaaard uvv SAAAAHHHSS""?? Anyone have an accent problem, I responded with a smile??
</font>

I wonder if any of the bank workers -- overweight and Boston-accented though they may be -- would have said 2-1/2 weeks ago "I think [the HKG health crisis] will be resolved in 3 weeks."?

According to Wednesday's Standard, 9 more SARS patients died today, including a 45-year-old man and three women aged between 32 and 37. There is no treatment (anti-viral or antibiotic) that has been found to be consistently effective, and various medical sources are in disagreement about the best treatment. Some doctors suggest an early intenbsive treatment, while others contend that the side-effects from such treatments can be extremely damaging. While 95-96% of SARS patients have eventually recovered, most SARS patients require far more hospitalization and intensive care than do typical pneumonia patients. At the moment, there are more new cases of SARS each day than there are patients who no longer require hospitalization (either because they are recovering or have succumbed).

So, while the likelihood of any 1 individual contracting SARS is low, the more people who visit HK, the more likely it is that one or more will contract SARS and spread it to another locale. And should one of those people be a super-spreader (like the woman from Singapore who went on a shopping trip to HK and infected dozens of people when she returned), the nature of the problem will have increased.

Until medical science can develop an effective treatment, and until medical science can understand how the super-spreader effect works with this virus, the problem will persist by creating a significant health threat to anyone who contracts SARS and by creating a significant drain on health care facilities in the locales affected by SARS cases.

And sneering, condescending remarks about people who work an honest job and who likely do not earn enough to travel as much as most FTers do not change those facts.

No, it's just you "wideman". Your problems. Why don't you do everyone in Hong Kong a favour and don't fly. That way, I'll take your AA upgrade.

[This message has been edited by SHADO (edited 04-15-2003).]

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by Marco Polo:
Just on HK TV News - "WHO officials today barred from visiting PLA Hospitals in Beijing" (where the majority of Northern China cases are)</font>

i'm not sure which is correct, but from the news i read, WHO experts did visit PLA hospitals 301, 302, 309 on april 15 (tuesday)...

Base on WHO's web site - "Due to differences in the case definitions being used at a national level, probable cases are reported by all countries except the United States of America, which is reporting suspected cases under investigation."

WHO finally allowed to visit PLA hospitals in Beijing
The breakthrough came after a warning that further delay might cause panic
ASSOCIATED PRESS and AGENCE-FRANCE PRESSE
The World Health Organisation was allowed into two Beijing military hospitals late yesterday to investigate reports that they are treating a large number of Sars patients.
Permission for the visits was granted after WHO officials publicly complained about being denied access to the hospitals despite repeated promises by President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao that China would co-operate fully.
A team spokesman would not comment on what was found in the hospitals or why government officials suddenly allowed the inspection. Spokesman James Palmer said such visits were a priority.
WHO team of experts met mainland officials yesterday, information officer Jim Radamaekers said. It was still unclear if the team would be granted specimens from patients, as requested, for analysis abroad, he said.
A Ministry of Health spokesman would not comment on why it took so long to approve the WHO visit to the military hospitals, which are under the defence department.
Earlier in the day, WHO spokesman Dick Thompson said the government's intransigence could foster rumours that would spark undue panic about severe acute respiratory syndrome. The WHO is considering issuing health adviso-ries for the mainland based on what the organisation called &quot;negative information&quot; - a lack of replies to WHO questions.
The WHO has largely avoided criticising mainland officials over their handling of the crisis, but its frustration has been evident in the tone of recent statements. Yesterday, before the hospital visits were approved, an update on its Web site said: &quot;WHO staff in Beijing have expressed particular concern about the official response to rumours [of Sars outbreaks in military hospitals] and the apparent absence of rigorous contact tracing.&quot;
Meanwhile, the WHO said the health ministry reported 14 new cases of Sars but no new deaths yesterday, bringing the cumulative total to 1,432 and 64 fatalities. There were three new cases in Beijing, bringing the total in the capital to 34, with four dead. Unconfirmed reports have said the numbers infected and the number of deaths in the capital are much larger.
Indicating the confusion within the government, the Ministry of Health figures for Beijing differ from those given by the Beijing health bureau, which reported 37 cases as of Monday.
The WHO Sars experts have inspected civilian hospitals in the city and talked to Beijing medical experts for the past six days in response to stories about a growing caseload in the capital.
Military doctor Jiang Yanhong, who last week alleged that the central government had lied about the number of Sars cases, said it was important the WHO was allowed into the hospitals.

the latest bews
BEIJING, China (CNN) -- Doctors from the World Health Organization have revealed that Beijing's cases of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome are largely undercounted.

http://edition.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/asiapcf/east/04/16/china.sars/

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by SHADO:
No, it's just you "wideman". Your problems. Why don't you do everyone in Hong Kong a favour and don't fly. That way, I'll take your AA upgrade.

[This message has been edited by SHADO (edited 04-15-2003).]</font>

Not edited enough, although nothing different is to be expected at this point.

Why are you worried about AA upgrades anyway? You've told FT repeatedly how you have moved your business to CX after the constant and incredibly bad treatment from AA about which you frequently rant?

SCMP - today
"Health checks have been ordered for all (Chep Lap Kok)incoming and outgoing air travellers and may be extended to cover land and sea border controls to stem the spread of Sars. "We need to reassure the international community that effective measures are in place to prevent the spread of the disease across borders," said Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa last night.
From midnight last night, health workers equipped with a hi-tech thermo-imaging machine were to be deployed at Chek Lap Kok to take the temperature of passengers departing Hong Kong. Mr Tung said similar measures would be extended to incoming air passengers from early next week. Land and sea border control points are also to be monitored (?).

http://www.time.com/time/asia/news/daily/0,9754,444684,00.html
aha
hide and seek Beijing style

The fat lady isn't singing yet, but we've just had the first day's data showing a net reduction in the number of people in hospital with SARS. 50 discharged today, 4 deaths and 30 new admittances.

Full details at http://home.so-net.com.hk/~pns/

just came back from beijing.

the load was 10-15%, you basically have the whole row (and adjacent row) for yourself, and most people wear mask.
i think it is safer on the plane than going to restaurants in HK now http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/smile.gif

flying into and out of hk is very safe these days, if most OTHER people are still worrying about SARS and do not fly.
(i.e. game theory type of safety)

[This message has been edited by pegasus8228 (edited 04-18-2003).]

Pot calling the kettle black !
Mainland experts fear that a virulent new strain of Sars could be imported
LEU SIEW YING in Guangzhou and PETER MICHAEL
Hong Kong and Guangdong have (BELATEDLY)agreed to co-ordinate the screening for Sars cases at their land and sea checkpoints.
Deputy Health Director Leung Pak-yim said the agreement between the Health, Welfare and Food Bureau and the Guangdong Entry-Exit Inspection and Quarantine Bureau came as mainland experts raised concerns over new strains of Sars virus brought IN by travellers from Hong Kong.
"We are worried that there will be imported cases because there might be a mutant virus," said Xiao Zhenglun, the deputy chief of the Guangdong Sars taskforce.
Mr Leung, leader of the Hong Kong team of medical professionals, said their cross-border counterparts had given them cell samples to allow them to culture the Guangdong strain of the Sars virus in Hong Kong. The team would also be receiving tissue samples from Guangdong patients, he said.
"The Guangdong side told us that when Hong Kong implements these measures [temperature checks], they will co-ordinate with us," Mr Leung said.
The two sides have yet to decide what to do with people found to have Sars symptoms.
Mr Leung said cross-border travellers would likely be checked once only and the procedure should not block the checkpoints.
The implementation date would be decided after the team returned to Hong Kong, he added.
Guangdong's deputy health chief, He Zhaofu, said the expert teams would hold their second meeting in Hong Kong in mid-May.
During their two-day visit, the Hong Kong team also visited the Guangdong Infectious Diseases Hospital, the Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Diseases and the Guangdong Provincial Chinese Medicine Hospital's Ersha branch.
In Hong Kong, Director of Health Margaret Chan said they were boosting personnel and equipment for temperature checks at border control points.
She said they were liaising with mainland authorities about the "division of labour" at checkpoints.
"We're looking at how sharing the workload of temperatures checks of incoming or outgoing visitors can speed up the process."
She said it took about three minutes to check individual temperatures using the ear thermometer, which is in short supply globally.

"You can imagine the potential problem to visitors, but health and safety is an important priority, so we would like to make use of new technology to speed up the flow."

Authorities hope to deploy within days high-tech thermal imaging equipment, which run body heat scans of people as they walk.

Medical staff at Chek Lap Kok yesterday took the temperatures of 28,000 air travellers departing Hong Kong. No one was stopped from boarding, Dr Chan said.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by Marco Polo:
the latest bews
BEIJING, China (CNN) -- Doctors from the World Health Organization have revealed that Beijing's cases of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome are largely undercounted.

http://edition.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/asiapcf/east/04/16/china.sars/</font>

chinese numbers are DEFINITELY largely uncounted, from my sources in the medical community in China. it is probably by a factor of 3-5x (and much less likely 5-10x).
however, looking at the population of china, even if we times the number by 10, the infection rate is still much lower than that in HK.
so we have reason to both worry and hope.

1. there is NO way to root out every single patient to stop this pandemic. the best one can do is "control", meaning that # recovers &gt;= # new cases, and thus buying time for the population to acquire immunuity themselvs; or time for a cure to be found (less likely, as virus caused diseases are not as well known as bateria caused disease in current time)
2. most worrying is that spreading in rural china -- but the contact between people are much less frequent or close than those in the cities.
3. it is still an early stage in china, as for example, the northeastern city i visited has just reported the very first death, the number is likely to increase.
4. but we shall still be optimistic, because china is a LOT better prepared than HK to treat infectious diseases. many hospital have a whole floor of isolated ward for infectious diseases, once the patient (or the 'superspreader') is admitted, the link is stopped.

what i am most worried is that the situation in other developing countries with less developed healthcare facilities, as sooner or later it will pass through to them.

i think SARS will become part of our life, like flu. we shall not worry too much about it, as it is not so deadly. the reason that there is flu outbreak every few year is because flu can easily mutate into new strain. let's just hope SARS will be once and for all (and it is not unlikely given the history of coronavirus family which had never been a noticeable problem for human being

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by JHunter:
Why are you worried about AA upgrades anyway? You've told FT repeatedly how you have moved your business to CX after the constant and incredibly bad treatment from AA about which you frequently rant?</font>

I have and with AA`s executicve bonuses against Union pay and PAX service cuts, this SARS scare is just "Lucky lucky lucky" for AA. In order to get to a CX hub, AA, and your upgrades can get me there. The funny thing, is you wouldn`t know I`m transfering to CX while on the AA domestic leg, until I hop on the shuttle bus.

Anyway, staying with my ***ORIGINAL*** post which is pro-CX, the United States just downgraded their "probable" SARS cases from 192 to 30. Now who called that? Please refer to the original post stating "75% of suspected SARS cases will be bogus"!!!

CX forever (including CX tickets when AA codeshares it)!!

By the way, this is from Tokyo, not Boston! It`s great in Asia and CNN WORLD is totally promoting the scare like a Wrestklemania main event! It`s disgusting!

CNN WORLD is not available in most parts of the USA.

SHADO

OOPS
Meanwhile, a male flight attendant who worked on an April 15 Cathay Pacific flight from Singapore to Hong Kong was confirmed to have Sars.
The government urged passengers who took flight CX714 to contact health authorities. The flight attendant is in stable condition at a Hong Kong hospital.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/sars/story/0,13036,939715,00.html

Hong Kong reports highest deaths in one day. Frightening
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/2960231.stm

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by drbala:
Hong Kong reports highest deaths in one day. Frightening
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/2960231.stm</font>

just wanna give some comments to put these HKG numbers into perspective:

- these twelve deaths: 7 are people with chronic diseases, all male, age 87, 86, 80, 77, 76, 71, 71...the other 5 do not have chronic diseases, 3 male of age 75, 63, 37, and 2 female of age 54, 54...so my take is the deaths are still mostly around people with chronic diseases and older...of course, not 100% of them, but as you can see from the numbers, most of them...

- these are mostly people admitted 2-3 weeks ago, so i wouldn't really just conclude from today's number that the situation is worsening...

- on the other hand, the number of new cases confirmed in the last 3-4 days has been on a more consistently, lower range, around 30 each day...

- and the number of people having recovered from the disease started to exceed the number of newly confirmed cases in the past few days - so the total number of confirmed SARS patients under treatment is decreasing, at least for the past few days

- you might also want to check out this chart from WHO...assuming the chart was last updated on April 14 and an incubation period of about 10 days, numbers up to April 5 should be relatively accurate...so you can see the number of new cases that started lately has been relatively stable and low...

http://www.who.int/csr/sarsepicurve/epiindex/en/index4.html

[This message has been edited by tedhl (edited 04-19-2003).]

The Guardian article, and on the CNN WORLD Sars special report stated the same:

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Dr Eng-kiong and several doctors who have been tackling the outbreak met reporters today and repeated assurances that 95% of Sars patients fully recover</font>

So my simple questions are, are they still virus carriers, or has the virus been killed in these patients? If so, how and what cured it? And if cured, isn`t this one of the 500 different strains of the common cold with similar (if not exact) results?

Calcium efficiency is just my hunch.

SHADO

yes, it will become somthing like flu.

one you are cured, the virus are mostly gone. there will be antibody in your body, which will make you 100X stronger against the virus in the next few years.

7-10 days after you are cured, it could be safe to meet with you (but there is never 100%, because all these medicine stuffs are statisics, not like math or physics)

sooner or later, everybody (well over 80% of the pop)will have the antibody. (most will have very mildly contracted the virus and might nbot even show any symptom).

now, the question is. how often do they mutate? if they mutate sucessfully into a new strain, there will be another outbreak.
for flu, it happends every few years.
let's hope this coronavirus does not do what flu do, or if it does, it will be much weaker strains (as it has never been able to affect people much in the past, this is a very likely scenario)

[This message has been edited by pegasus8228 (edited 04-20-2003).]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/s836135.htm
another typical Hong Kong reaction

But surely stir-frying on a high heat with a little chilli sauce would kill the virus? http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/smile.gif

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by christep:
But surely stir-frying on a high heat with a little chilli sauce would kill the virus? http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/smile.gif</font>

We have a cat (a very large Maine Coon, almost 20 pounds) that we left back in the US. not so much because of its size and the fact that we have a small apartment, but because we didn't want him served at City Hall as the dish of honor...

[double post]

[This message has been edited by daniellam (edited 04-20-2003).]

SARS or not, I am still going to go to HKG during the last week of August anyways.

My guess is that there will probably never be a "cure" (even though some say they are close) for SARS anyways (not saying that it can't be controlled). The word SARS is probably going to be as common as the word AIDS is today.

We can't let this disease prevent us from carrying out our lives normally. (However we need to be more cautious).

Personally, I don't think wearing surgical face masks would help that much. Maybe carrying a small bottle of "antiviral/bacterial handwash" would be as common as carrying a small packet of tissue papers (a lot HongKongers carry them around as there is no toilet paper at some public toilets) is going to be a common thing soon?

any detergent will kill the virus.

just dont touch your face after you touch the elevator button/etc. wash your hand with soap frequently.


[This message has been edited by pegasus8228 (edited 04-20-2003).]

This link has regularly updated tables listing Sars Cases & deaths in each country. I'd rather see the primary source than some article overplaying or underplaying the situation.

http://www.who.int/csr/sarscountry/en/

An interesting thing to look at is the # of Deaths vs # of recoveries. Some doctors pointed out that using this comparison, the mortality rate for Sars is more than the original estimate of 4%.

I think the latest mortality rate count by WHO is 5.6%.

But that hides a huge disparity by age. My feeling is that SARS is going to end up something like "typical" pneumonia, which has a mortality rate of about 12% overall, but something well over 50% for people aged over 75 and 1 or 2% for otherwise healthy under, say, 30. The HK Government, linked from my site ( http://home.so-net.com.hk/~pns/ ), published recently a table on mortality by age for deaths up to 15 April.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by christep:
..."typical" pneumonia, which has a mortality rate of about 12% overall</font>

Whoa, it's only Wednesday -- I thought Friday was reserved for Make-Up-A-Fact day.

Or can you supply a source (preferably one that is published since the advent of antibiotics) to back up your claim that pneumonia has a 12% death rate?

While you're at it, you might also want to consider a comparative length of hospitalization for pneumonia associated with SARS and other pneumonias. I haven't seen any formal comparison, but anecdotal evidence certainly points to SARS patients (compared to other pneumonia patients) having (1)a greater incidence of hospitalization, and (2)a lengthier stay and longer ICU stay for those who are hospitalized.

If you had been to my website you would find the links to my sources. For that particular bit of data it is derivable from the Hong Kong Medical Association presentation and the HK Health Department Annual Report. Obviously it moves up and down a bit, but the average number of "typical" pneumonia cases per year in HK is in the range 15-25,000, and deaths in the range 2-3,000. The mortality I took to be one divided bythe other (we can debate the fine detail but it's going to be more orless right).

I would love to see data on length of stay (broadly around 3 weeks is the average I think) and also details on the ICU cases. There is material on the Health Department and University sites which shows that some patients are in and out of ICU more than once. And yet some are into ICU and discharged within 10 days. All of this is also hugely variable by age and previous medical condition. It also appears to be significantly more of a problem for men than for women.

OK, now I understand your blunder.

I believe the 12% 'mortality' rate for pneumonia is the death rate for those pneumonia patients who are admitted to hospitals.

The vast majority of pneumonia patients are treated as outpatients. (According to the Singapore General Hospital (http://www.sghhealth4u.com.sg/health4u/respiratory/rccm_content_frameset.html?pneumonia.htm~preview) only 15% of 'normal' pneumonia patients require hospitalization.) Thus, the actualy mortality rate is less than 1% (15% times 12%).


Edited to add specific hospitalization data from Singapore Gen Hosp.

[This message has been edited by wideman (edited 04-22-2003).]

I feel "blunder" is a little strong, if not wrong.

We could categorise both SARS and pneumonia into four groups:

1) People have it but not severely enough to know, or to seek medical attention.
2) It is severe enough for medical attention but not severe enough for hospitalisation
3) It requires hospitalisation.
4) It kills

I have compared data for cases 3 and 4 for both pneumonia and SARS.

For case 2 there are currently no SARS patients - what we don't know is how many of the SARS patients currently in group 3 are there simply as a means of quarantining them rather than because their condition otherwise merits it.

For case 1, we have absolutely no idea how many people in the HK community have SARS but are not affected sufficiently for them to seek medical treatment. It is perfectly possible that I have already been infected by SARS and my body has overcome it. I will not figure on any statistics as a result.

The figure for deaths for pneumonia in HK is here:
http://www.info.gov.hk/dh/ar0001/pdf/append2/appen12.pdf

The figure for the number of hospitalisation cases of pneumonia is here:
http://www.info.gov.hk/dh/ar0001/pdf/append2/appen18.pdf
(lines T321 T322).

I will add some text clarifying my clarifying my calculations at my SARS page; however, what is clear is that in the period since this outbreak started in HK approximately three times as many people have died of "typical" pneumonia as of "atypical" pneumonia (i.e. SARS).

[This message has been edited by christep (edited 04-22-2003).]

The Corona Virus is 60 to 220 nanometers in size and can enter the body through your eyes, nose , mouth.
That is 0.06 - 0.22 microns in size, right ?
The 'best' of the face masks - N95 masks if moulded to your face so no air is sucked in from the side folds will supposedly stop most (95%)of the particles in the 0.3 micron range.
So how is any mask going to stop someone catching the virus ?
The mask will stop sneeze droplets going out but not virus of these dimensions coming in.
Also the manufacturers like 3M state that the masks are not suitable for children, or adults with beard, moustache or stubble.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by Marco Polo:
So how is any mask going to stop someone catching the virus ?
The mask will stop sneeze droplets going out but not virus of these dimensions coming in</font>

That's correct. It doesn't help much at all, as many hospital workers are finding out. And many people don't wear their masks correctly either, exposing their noses. Any orifice can input a coronavirus. The easiest way of spreading is rubbing eyes before washing hands.

Just returned from NRT and had a lovely business trip! It is the "American" news organizations that are causing this panic, purposely not mentioning all the facts (both pros and cons) for their own commercial profits ONLY. When the TV is off, however, those organizations really have nothing to say. I think advertisers should pull their ads from them, governments should force them to be broken up, and restrictions on ethics should be in place. The biggest problem is the HUGE inpact CNN is being allowed. Hotels should shut them off (or at least allow additional competitors on their cable systems) and airports should not run the CNN channel any longer (or at least limit the programming coming directly from America as it is agenda driven under a huger corporate ownership, not a single business with a competitive journalistic ethic).

I'm rooting for Hong Kong to fix the problem! I believe it will be fixed soon. Once the airport medical checks stop, travel will resume. That is the problem, forced airport medical screening.....that cannot continue because they really don't know what they are screening for.

SHADO

Ladies and Gentlemen! The **CURE** for SARS is about to begin!! Thank you, so very much WHO (World Health Organization) for placing a restriction of travel on Toronto, Canada!! It has been a beautiful day watching the Mayor of Toronto get **SO ANGRY** over it, he has suddenly turned some public opinion against the WHO!! **Yeah!!** Below is a general statement he said, but *not* a direct quote:

- First of all, a restriction is on Toronto from an organization who never visited any hospitals in Toronto, never saw any of our patients and we don't even know who they are or where they come from! Living in Toronto is safe, travelling and visiting Toronto is safe! Who makes the World Health Organization?? They have an office in Geneva, I think?? Is that where they are making their decisions?? I have never been angrier in my entire life!!

YEP! He said *basically* all that, live and now people are agreeing with him in both the United States and Canada! I sure hope you all got a chance to see that! It's a great statement broadcast numerous times here in North America! We **ALL** needed to see that, because this SARS scare is totally bogus and now being used to change governments positions all at a cost of our own businesses, profits and travelling.

I wonder what the WHO will say when this virus gets shut down rather quickly this summers as rates are decreasing now.

I want to fly my CX!! I want ROMANCE in the skies!!

SHADO

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by SHADO:

I want to fly my CX!! I want ROMANCE in the skies!!

SHADO</font>

Right, SHADO, then go to Hong Kong this minute, fly CX right away, and as much and as often as you can. There is nothing to stop you from doing so. There is nothing even to discourage from doing so since according to your posts, you don't think much of the SARS disease save that, in your view, it is more of a media hype/frenzy.

BTW, I assume you have been flying CX a lot for the past 5 weeks, and spent time in Hong Kong? I would be very curious to know why if you havent!

I have been there. It's better than George Pataki.

The only CX cancellations I've made were flights that are HKG-BKK. Instead, I've booked JAL NRT-BKK, so that way BKK airport won't have to check my testicles.

SHADO

[This message has been edited by SHADO (edited 04-26-2003).]

Shado "Living in Toronto is safe, travelling and visiting Toronto is safe!"
indeed, you have much more chance of being a victim of violent crime in Toronto than of catching SARS
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/020717/d020717b.htm
There were 41,172 cases (876 per 100,000 persons) of violent crime in Toronto in 2001 and Toronto only has 306 cases of Sars with 14 deaths

There's also a less chance of being attacked in Toronto than in Boston or New York City (****LOL****)!!

In the months to come, I hope it gets better than worse. I heard some good news came from HKG today, the lowest numer of suspected cases since March. I hope it gets even better than that!

Will be watching!

Sunday, April 27, 2003
Hong Kong has 12 more SARS deaths, but fewer infections
HONG KONG (AP): Twelve more SARS patients have died in Hong Kong, matching the territory's previous one-day record, but health officials on Sunday reported just 16 new infections, the lowest total yet since the government began releasing daily statistics last month.
-----------
Beijing - With a bright sky and a warm sun shining, it would seem the kind of day when Beijing's residents come out in force to enjoy spring, but this Sunday Sars had turned the city into a ghost town.

Deserted streets and empty plazas reflected the awful fact that of all the people who are reported to have succumbed to severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) worldwide, one in six have died in Beijing.

-------------

HKG
Health Director Dr. Margaret Chan said it was too soon to say whether Hong Kong is winning its fight against severe acute respiratory syndrome.
"The figures of infection have shown a slightly downward trend,'' Chan told a news conference. "But we dare not to make any predictions -- this disease has shown big fluctuations.''

Most of the reports are still very negative about when SARS will be controlled and it will be safe to travel.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by Marco Polo:
HONG KONG (AP): Twelve more SARS patients have died in Hong Kong</font>

Of whom 11 were aged at least 77 or chronically ill anyway.

Can't AP find some real news to report? "91 year old woman dies of pneumonia" is not news!

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by Marco Polo:
The Corona Virus is 60 to 220 nanometers in size and can enter the body through your eyes, nose , mouth.
That is 0.06 - 0.22 microns in size, right ?
The 'best' of the face masks - N95 masks if moulded to your face so no air is sucked in from the side folds will supposedly stop most (95%)of the particles in the 0.3 micron range.
So how is any mask going to stop someone catching the virus ?
The mask will stop sneeze droplets going out but not virus of these dimensions coming in.
Also the manufacturers like 3M state that the masks are not suitable for children, or adults with beard, moustache or stubble.</font>


the mask help2 in 2 ways
1. the virus dies very quickly when they are alone, they have to attach to 'large' water droplets to sruvive for 3 hours. (large is relatives...perhaps at least 10-20x size of the virus.

2. if you are a carrier, if helps everybody around you. note: a carrier can be healthy throughout.

Well, it's about time!!

WHO's Dr. Heymann finally admitting that wearing masks, closing theatres and avoiding travel on aircraft is asinine. He reaffirms these points in this BBC article by stating that "this disease does not spread easily."

Perhaps people will start returning to reality and go about their everyday lives, which includes flying. Unfortunately, I fear that it will be difficult to fold back the panic, unless reports like these start showing up in the press continuously.

Sars fears 'causing undue damage' (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/2981531.stm)


Cheers.

[This message has been edited by Cohiba (edited 04-28-2003).]

On my last CX flight (yesterday), One of the FA's got very upset that I was not wearing a mask. I was seated in a cabin that had 5 other people in it that has a capacity of 30. Wearing gloves affords more protection than a mask in that type of situation.

Actually a washcloth before dinner is served is a better protection. I've always noticed CX hands out the face-cloths after dinner, not before....so I always sneak in one of those portable Subway (sandwich shop) washcloths that I get from my numerous sandwiches left over in Japan, per flight.

Isopropol Alcohol pads are even better. Kill germs on contact (much like when a syringe is placed in your arm, it is wiped by a cotton of Ethyl Alcohol).

One can always rub their eyes with gloves and that is a no-no. You'd want a clean finger first as flying is not a hospital setting (those gloves have to be replaced consistantly, after every group meal serving, every reading of a newspaper session, every visit to a patient in a hospital, etc.). Unfortunately the masks don't help anyone. They look good for show, but that's about it (and those have to be replaced consistantly as well).

Best is to bring in your own soap (but this is an inconvenience for travellers), or CX must *always* have soap available, no exceptions, to wash up in their lovely lav while the seatbelt sign is off. Unlikely if there is no soap, but if so, use another bathroom....push the PAX out of the way, if you have too (joke)! :-)

Oh the memories!

SHADO

[This message has been edited by SHADO (edited 04-28-2003).]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A10947-2003May3.html

I am not all convinced by the emphasis being put on this virus. Test in N America have shown that they can only find it in 40% of "SARS" case, and that it is present in 15% of the general population. If the latter is true worldwide and this virus really is the cause of people's illness then it is already endemic, not a potential epidemic.