Cathay Pacific Asia Miles - China announces new SARS figures, cancels May holiday

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/2961819.stm

"China's official death toll is now 79, with 1,807 confirmed cases of the illness, the health ministry has announced."

Still unbelievably low, methinks.

Doubtless excludes the cases in military hospitals who are not obliged to report to the Health dept or who are still being driven around the streets in ambulances

RTHK news just now - 7 dead today in HKG but only 22 new admissions of which 4 are health workers

And 46 discharged. Graphical summary now available at my site. http://home.so-net.com.hk/~pns/

FEARBUSTERS WORKSHOP
A Turning Point in the SARS Outbreak

Please join us at an interactive workshop to explore how civil society in Hong Kong can rebuild TRUST and RELIANCE in the many systems that affect our daily activities so that normality can return. The rebuilding must be based on sound knowledge and sharing of best practices. To do so, the community must network within and across sectors.

The SARS outbreak presents Hong Kong people with a chance to dramatically upgrade our living environment where public hygiene and public health conditions are improved and sustained in the longer-term. We look forward to your ideas on how you can help to meet this challenge. Be prepared to participate fully at the workshop! It will be a work-intensive morning for brainstorming, brainsufing and networking.

Date: Saturday, 26 April 2003

Place: Island Shangri-la, Hong Kong
Atrium Room, 39/Floor
Pacific Place

Time: 9 am to 1 pm
(8.45 am registration - there will be one break and refreshments will be provided)

Entry Condition: A minimum of 3 IDEAS that you or your group can offer. (You may wish to ask for assistance from or collaboration with other participants)

Dresscode: Casual - we leave individual participants to decide whether they wish to wear masks.

Register NOW: As the number of seats are limited, we need you to register by noon 24 April at the latest. Please send your attendance confirmation to cloh@civic-exchange.org (Christine Loh)

OK - so I'm glad I don't have a killfile... I have emailed Ms Loh for more on this - it would be good to try to get something positive from the whole experience. Will I see you there Marco Polo?

I'm invited but will probably be in Malaysia doing a job there so will send the wife
Sod's law

http://www.voanews.com/article.cfm?objectID=0020D1EF-463D-4084-8DFD2446BB791AAF
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/eastasia/view/37921/1/.html
http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200304/20/eng20030420_115490.shtml

finally, they got the message -
or, have they ?
"The fact is that the cause of atypical pneumonia has not been finally ascertained, so it is still impossible to determine the etiological origins of the disease. Media of South China's Guangdong Province made earlier reports on the case of atypical pneumonia,
!
but there is no scientific basis to indicate that Guangdong is the place of origin of atypical pneumonia.
!
Just like Aids was first reported in the United States, but one cannot say that the United States is the place of the origin of Aids. "
http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200304/17/eng20030417_115335.shtml

they got the message.
they are doing the right thing now, finally.
a bit late. but they got it.

the people's daily line is from 4/17. i believe this is a reason why minister zhang was so widely hated and be fired today.

i think this is a turning point in chinese politics - the implication is far stretched than just in the healthcare sector. in the future, officials will be held accountable.

the disgusting Minister of Public Health Zhang (also th Mayor of Beijing) was fired from the party post, he is expected to be fired from his Minister job soon (unlike his party job, that would require the People's Congress decision/mechanism).

as for beijing, on top of the 339 (+7 more today), Mr Gao also reported 409 suspected case, and that some of such cases will be turned into confirmed case.

he also admited that he cannot guarantee the national figure is correct, but they have sent SWAT teams to those provinces that are affected most (guangdong, shanxi, etc) to implement the reporting system and make sure they got the right figure.

i think we expect to see 3000-4000 in the next week, and this will be the truful numbers.

the press conference (in china) below is the most transparent announcement in china in history
http://news.sina.com.cn/c/2003-04-20/15181006759/index.shtml
it was broadcasted in full (2 hour) 6-8pm today in CCTV4. this is also a breakthrough in china.


let's look at the bright side, china is a lot better prepared for epidermic than most other countries. compared with HK or Canada, which basically have no infectious diseases, many hospitals in china has isolated ward/floors. they all are very experienced in treating infectious diseases.


[This message has been edited by pegasus8228 (edited 04-20-2003).]

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by Marco Polo:
Doubtless excludes the cases in military hospitals who are not obliged to report to the Health dept or who are still being driven around the streets in ambulances

</font>
the new number in beijing includes the miltary sector. (i think Gao said about 150 confirmed cases are in the militray sector, or something like that)

in the press conference, some foreign reporters also asked about the ambulance scandal, though the question wasn't answered, the interpreter's chinese translation of the question was broadcast all over china.

i think, this time, the chinese leaders got it. and they are determined to make ti transparent. it was said clearly in the party report on thursday that "any under reporting will be severely punished"
they just punished those 2 imcompetent officials today, and one of the reason was their ignoring the party decision and continue to under-report.



[This message has been edited by pegasus8228 (edited 04-20-2003).]

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/04/06/1049567564240.html
ONE OF THE POSSIBLE ORIGINS

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by pegasus8228:
i think this is a turning point in chinese politics - </font>

You are very optimistic. I have been involved with the region for a long time - and the current leadership really doesn't seem capable of engineering what you call a turning point. I am afraid disregard for human rights will go on for quite some time... As for SARS, the figures just published aren't even close to the truth.

perhaps i am.

i am not saying there is only one point to be turned, instead there are hundreds need to be turned.

the economic reform began in 1980, and it took over 20 years for the results to be recognized by the world, and even today perhaps only half of the points have been turned.

however, admitting having made a mistake, and holding a high level officer accountable is definitely new in this country. i had been very disappointed at the way the chinese govt dealt with this SARS mess, and was wishing Zhu was still in power. but since yesterday, i think we have to agree that chinese politics are also going on a irreversible path, like what they did in economic reform 20 years ago.
they are able to find out what the right thing is, even without zhu's presence. this is no big deal elsewhere, but is remarkable in china. we shall give them some credit, honestly.

the number are becoming real now. it may still take quite a few days to be really real. but it will be close to the truth.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/justin/nat/newsnat-21apr2003-71.htm

The rumour I heard through friends in Singapore who have contacts in high ranking circles in China... are that military people are basically expediting SARS death by 'natural causes' so that the death would not be noted as cause by SARS.. in order to mute numbers.

Those who KNOW China... know that this is plausible! No Western logic needed to explain this situation!

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by Guy Betsy:
The rumour I heard through friends in Singapore who have contacts in high ranking circles in China... are that military people are basically expediting SARS death by 'natural causes' so that the death would not be noted as cause by SARS.. in order to mute numbers.

Those who KNOW China... know that this is plausible! No Western logic needed to explain this situation!</font>

very true......anything to "save face"

http://www.civic-exchange.org/n_sars_hk_frequency.htm#table13

detailed breakdown of HKG cases
the HK authorities are now considering thermal scan testing of transit pax also

Yes, but my site has that, and also has details on which of those cases were previously suffering from a chronic disease.

I am in discussion with Civic Exchange / Fearbusters about a merger of my site into theirs if they will take on and maintain some of the analysis I show which they don't.

mhtaipei : "As for SARS, the figures just published aren't even close to the truth"
My friend's Mandarin teacher is from Shanghai - she is the daughter of a senior cadre in Shanghai - he told her the number of deaths in PRC attributable to Sars or rather Peoples Respiratory Coverup Syndrome- PRCS over the past YEAR is over 800. Rumour yes, but more in line with the possible real situation in a 1,300 million populace. If the patient's heart stops because of PRCS does the China death certificate show heart disease or PRCS ?