Cathay Pacific Asia Miles - Most serious crisis in 26 years?

Has anyone read an article carried by the Standard about Cathay facing the worst crisis in 26 years, quoting an internal memo by CEO David Turnbull?

I wonder if anyone has it.

I just couldn't believe JAL announced today they are paring NRT-HKG, repeat NRT-HKG, to one flight per day! for the second half of April. It will rise to two in May.

JAL has 4 flights now.

Woo really.....thats a really bad news then.... i heard that most flights now only have 30-40 pax on it within asia to Hongkong..... how is UA and NW doing on NRT-HKG route?

Few businesses are as sensitive to random events than is the airline business. Not only does it exist by virtue of doing something that I still marvel at -- moving 200 ton tubes of metal half-way around the world -- and wonder how it actually works, but it just takes one event, be it 9.11 or the SARS outbreak, to totally rewrite the business plan. [Or in the Pacific region, the late 90s melt-down of the Tiger economies.] In my view, this is why I believe governments should provide aid to this industry at such times. Not bail outs of basket cases, but to step in when private sector insurance and other businesses cannot handle the job. But time will tell what this will do to CX. At this end of the world, Asia -- and HKG/SIN -- is the last place I want to visit, or transit through. And I'm in Toronto where the third major SARS centre is! I say the mainland government has a lot to account for, not just to the people of HKG, but to people and countries around the world.

Its callous approach to dealing with its own SARS outbreak is no different than a group of terrorists knowingly unleashing a biological attack on a country. The Chinese governmetn launched an attack on several countries, and has been as callous about its own peoples' misery as a result as has Saddam Hussein in his treatment of Iraqi children while he lives in opulence, and his Ba'ath Party warehouses hord milk powder and flour.

The men in Beijing owe a lot of us an explanation, and an apology.

In LA right now, friends to me that some of the TA which specialized in Asia travel said that business is even worst than the week right after 9/11.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by Shareholder:
...The men in Beijing owe a lot of us an explanation, and an apology.</font>

Some Chinese minister already apologized but it's too little too late. The Beijing regime's instinctual tendency to lie and obfuscate is, alas, legendary and once again proves that with all the recent phenomenal strides that China has achieved economically, its government is still a basket case.

Rant over. Thanks!

Hi
This info was also given by AFP (agence france press)...
Brgds
Rohnny

Just curious - but what happened 26 years ago?

Cathay faces gravest situation in 26 years
Drastic slump seen for carrier, which is cutting flights for a third time

(HONG KONG) Just a month after announcing bumper profits, Hong Kong's flagship carrier Cathay Pacific Airways warned yesterday it was facing its gravest situation in 26 years because of the Sars virus and the Iraq war.

http://business-times.asia1.com.sg/sub/shippingtimes/story/0,4574,77863,00.html?

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by davistev:
Just curious - but what happened 26 years ago?</font>

I believe it's a reference to David Turnbull's tenure with the Company.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by Chiangi:
Has anyone read an article carried by the Standard about Cathay facing the worst crisis in 26 years, quoting an internal memo by CEO David Turnbull?
</font>

This is the article.

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/thestandard/news_detail_frame.cfm?articleid=38137&intcatid=1

Well, folks our airline needs us: I am booked TPE-NRT on May 9 and again May 16.

I think SARS - a tiny invisible virus - is a scary thought in an airplane at 3x000 feet, with no way to escape - this crisis is probably more serious than 911.

Wasabi Tofu-san, thank you!

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">
Cathay Pacific will reveal next week just how badly it has been affected when it releases its March traffic figures.

However, from last year's record passenger loads, aircraft are now believed to be an average of 30 per cent full.

April's traffic figures are likely to be even worse after the World Health Organisation (WHO) last week issued a bulletin advising people not to travel to Hong Kong or Guangdong.
</font>

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by Chiangi:
I just couldn't believe JAL announced today they are paring NRT-HKG, repeat NRT-HKG, to one flight per day! for the second half of April. It will rise to two in May.

JAL has 4 flights now.</font>

Couldn't believe it either when BA pulled out a couple days ago LHR-HKG from two daily to ZERO either. British Airways albeit temporarily, pulling out from Hong Kong...

On a side note, I was on AA NRT-JFK last week, made a small cough, and the lady seated 60 inches in front of me jumps out of her seat, looks back and asks "have you been in HKG recently by any chance?" Poor lady, I wonder what would've happened to her if I sneezed.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by silver:
Couldn't believe it either when BA pulled out a couple days ago LHR-HKG from two daily to ZERO either. British Airways albeit temporarily, pulling out from Hong Kong...
</font>

That's simply not true. BA is still flying to HKG - what has changed is that they are routing via BKK so that one crew can do BKK-HKG-BKK without having to deplane at HKG.



[This message has been edited by christep (edited 04-09-2003).]

BA is showing single flight LHR-BKK-HKG until April 14, then resuming single flight non-stop LHR-HKG on April 15. And back to 2 daily flights in June. But BA does run a 744 every day (pretty full on some days if the CRS is to be believed). Maybe they think some news will occur by April 15 that will improve the situation.

Well for the war side, it looks like The Coalition will win and it will be safer. Actually it is safer now....Iraq needed to be taken out and the images on the news today explained it (in Basra, three (3) Al Jazeera journalists were chased all the way to the Kuwaiti border for kissing up to the regime....true story!). Make note that Syrian media did not broadcast any images of Baghdad's day of freedom.

For SARS, the first thing that has to stop is all the custom checks acting like military detainment centers because of common cold symptoms and/or destination location. Agencies are going "ape" saying if you have symptoms, one way to know is if you had recent travel to certain areas. *BOGUS*!! So if I get a letter stamped from Hong Kong, maybe SARS is inside?? *BOGUS*!

What we really have is hysteria defeating a treatable cold. Maybe if all those people working to contain it worked to study it, it would have been gone, yesterday. And make note, that many media organizations will continue to say "there's no cure" when they don't even know what to cure.

I say look at travel increasing BIG once it all goes away. Hong Kong is going to get a STEAMY *HOT* 110 F degree day soon and everyone will be cured.

That's my opinion, not edited by the Iraqi Information Minister "Baghdad Bob"! hahaha!!

SHADO

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by SHADO:
Hong Kong is going to get a STEAMY *HOT* 110 F degree day soon and everyone will be cured.</font>

44C? Typical summer time high temperatures are ~36C. When the weather has rarely approaches 40C people start to die from heat stroke.

Why do you think hot humid weather will cure everyone? I would think the virus would survive longer, outside the human body, in a warm moist environment, making the contagion worst.

Virus survive well in cold enviornment and weak to heat. Bacteria, on the otherhand, survives in warm humid environment, and weak to cold.

Since SARS is nothing more than just a pneumonia, (regardless of all the rubbish you hear on the Media), when the flu season end and it gets warmer, people should start feeling better.

Am I worried? Absolute not.

It's a little more than pneumonia - it has hit nearly 250 of the health workers attending to the other 750 who have it, despite very strict barrier nursing practices.

But you're right that it isn't as big a deal as the media are making out.

My website has been updated with the latest numbers as at 1pm today.

http://home.so-net.com.hk/~pns/

I think many people are probably aware of the little probability of contracting this disease. And dying from it may even be more remote if you are young. They may want to travel to the affected regions despite SARS.

But I would think it is out of concern for others around them -- friends, collegues, and family members who may or may not include the aged or vulnerable -- that they are refraining from traveling.

You might not get it nor develop it but you could pass it on, could you not?

Another thing, the WHO hasn't issued that travel advisory for pneumonia.

[This message has been edited by Chiangi (edited 04-10-2003).]

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by fakecd:
Since SARS is nothing more than just a pneumonia, (regardless of all the rubbish...)</font>

Rubbish seems to be in ample supply in this thread.

To begin with, despite all of the declarative statements in this thread and elsewhere, there are no definitive answers about SARS yet: what it is, how it spreads, when an infected person is contagious. Lots of speculation (and some of that speculation is informed), but it still remains speculation.

That said, it appears that SARS is not a pneumonia; rather it seems to be a virus (of the type coronavirus) that can cause a pneumonia. In fact, only a percentage of people who have gotten SARS have actually developed pneumonia.

As for being "a treatable cold," as SHADO declares, that would certainly appear to be misleading. Although the recovery rate from SARS has been about 95-96%, that is a lower recovery rate than from most colds, or even most pneumonias. The fact is that SARS, as its name suggests, is a particularly severe instance of a malady. If you are a healthy 32-year old and catch SARS, you'll probably just feel miserable for a few days and then fatigued for a while after that.

But if you're, say, 57 years old and catch SARS, it could certainly be life-threatening, far more so than a common cold or even typical pneumonia. And if you're over 70, SARS is absolutely a life-threatening concern.

As an aside, has anyone seen (and maybe there isn't enough data yet) any figures on recovery rate from SARS (esp. compared to typical pneumonia) for population groups &gt;60 years and &gt;70 years?

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by wideman:

As an aside, has anyone seen (and maybe there isn't enough data yet) any figures on recovery rate from SARS (esp. compared to typical pneumonia) for population groups &gt;60 years and &gt;70 years?</font>

I concede that "rubbish" is a rather emotional comment I made which wasn't most appropriate.

The point I'm trying to make is, those &gt;60s groups will be subject to high risk despite what type of flu they are infected with. Even if they get a normal pneumonia, they will be just likely to pass away, so why do we focus so much attention on SARS?

Just because we don't know what SARS exactly is, it does not warrant nor justify the media frenzy which provokes further panic.

Look at the numbers. I don't hear any news about my nextdoor neighbors popping off from a normal flu, despite 20,000 die every year. http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/rolleyes.gif (not to mention there are no cure for flu either http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/rolleyes.gif )

[This message has been edited by fakecd (edited 04-10-2003).]

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by wideman:
As for being "a treatable cold," as SHADO declares, that would certainly appear to be misleading. Although the recovery rate from SARS has been about 95-96%, that is a lower recovery rate than from most colds, or even most pneumonias. The fact is that SARS, as its name suggests, is a particularly severe instance of a malady. If you are a healthy 32-year old and catch SARS, you'll probably just feel miserable for a few days and then fatigued for a while after that. </font>

Well, you're located in New England and I am in Boston. The local ABC, CBS, and NBC affiliates, they are continually making claims there are "no cures". However, you are writing recovery rates of 95-96%! So 95-96% of people are recovering and not sick anymore?? Cured?? The illegal New England media is purposely not broadcasting stories of people who are claimed to have this "thing" called SARS who are walking, talking, breathing, discharged, etc. Not many stories about the "living", I see.....you see NECN (New England Cable News owned by Hearst) doesn't want us to be too informed. Send them a resume and it gets thrown into the ash can.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Posted by user Mad4Miles:
Why do you think hot humid weather will cure everyone? I would think the virus would survive longer, outside the human body, in a warm moist environment, making the contagion worst</font>

Well, first you have to be enlightened about medical facts. An airborn virus cannot survive outside during certain temperature gradients at all. All viruses require a host. If it gets extremely hot, it will burn up and die. Most viruses (not all) must remain inside a liquid environment (like the mist of a cough) and once that mist evaporates, the virus dies as it did not find a host. A majority of viruses cannot survive for seconds without its liquid environment, it needs a host.

For bacteria, it is very interesting to know that it can survive at 37 C degrees, but *NOT* 38 C degrees. This is why, when one is sick and gets a temperature, you are in essence killing off the bacteria in a cold. Keep that in mind when you pop in a pair of Tylenols and you are sicker longer. Rather waiting a day or two, the fever goes down, then pop them in for the accompanying aches and pains.

These are the general facts for most viruses and bacteria treatable with over the counter products, regular body defences and fruit juices, water, soup, etc. For bacteria and viruses that go beyond one's own defences, prescriptions are required. In the case of SARS, my gut tells me they are dealing with a bunch of cases of different bacterias and viruses, most known, most easily containable and treatable. Those that do not make it are obviously not getting proper treatment or requested it too late in the game. It's the quick spread of hospital workers and the media that has caused governments that know little about normal body temperature to impose guidelines for visa requirements and that has to stop right away.

By the way, I started popping in Calcium tablets again and I feel GREAT! Boy, I needed that!

SHADO

[This message has been edited by SHADO (edited 04-10-2003).]

re certain recent comments: A shallow brook is noisy.

For those who are interested in hearing voices other than their own, the World Health Organization SARS web site (http://www.who.int/csr/sarsarchive/2003_04_11/en/) has some excellent information about the origins, history, and potentials of SARS.

One of the most startling facts in the WHO report concerns the severity of the illness. Of the hospital workers who got SARS -- and there's no indication that these hospital workers were not in good health -- 25 of 26 in Hanoi and 24 of 39 in Hong Kong "rapidly progressed [from initial symptoms] to respiratory failure, requiring intensive care and causing some deaths in previously healthy persons."

[This message has been edited by wideman (edited 04-11-2003).]

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by wideman:
re certain recent comments: A shallow brook is noisy.

For those who are interested in hearing voices other than their own, the World Health Organization SARS web site (http://www.who.int/csr/sarsarchive/2003_04_11/en/) has some excellent information about the origins, history, and potentials of SARS.

One of the most startling facts in the WHO report concerns the severity of the illness. Of the hospital workers who got SARS -- and there's no indication that these hospital workers were not in good health -- 25 of 26 in Hanoi and 24 of 39 in Hong Kong "rapidly progressed [from initial symptoms] to respiratory failure, requiring intensive care and causing some deaths in previously healthy persons."

[This message has been edited by wideman (edited 04-11-2003).]</font>

Yes, but now that they have abetter idea of what they're looking for and how to treat those with the disease, the survivability rate is much higher. I suspect most of these deaths were in the initial weeks of the outbreak.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by wideman:
re certain recent comments: A shallow brook is noisy.For those who are interested in hearing voices other than their own</font>

Well, "the butcher with the sharpest knife, has the warmest heart". The voices of the WHO can have members appointed by people such as the former head of the Iraqi Health Ministry, current UN embassador for Iraq. He recently said he "loves New York" while trying to book a flight to Syria.

It was the WHO that caused the outbreak of SARS via media promotions, then spread it with unequipped doctors, one who lost his life. That is a fact, the WHO report is a barrage of guesses.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by wideman:
One of the most startling facts in the WHO report concerns the severity of the illness. Of the hospital workers who got SARS -- and there's no indication that these hospital workers were not in good health -- 25 of 26 in Hanoi and 24 of 39 in Hong Kong "rapidly progressed [from initial symptoms] to respiratory failure, requiring intensive care and causing some deaths in previously healthy persons."
</font>

I don't see exactly where you are quoting this from, because as written, it is wrong, at least as far as HK is concerned. No previously healthy person under the age of 46 has died of SARS in Hong Kong. The vast majority of those dying are old and chronically ill with something else. See here:
http://home.so-net.com.hk/~pns/ for the list of the age, sex and previous condition of all the victims in HK to date.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by christep:
No previously healthy person under the age of 46 has died of SARS in Hong Kong.</font>

Unfortunately this is no longer true. As of today's update, two 30-somethings with no reported prior chronic illness died.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by christep:
I don't see exactly where you are quoting [my previous post] from, because as written, it is wrong, at least as far as HK is concerned. No previously healthy person under the age of 46 has died of SARS in Hong Kong....</font>

I was quoting from the WHO update of April 11. The quote is taken from the 5th paragraph under "Chronology of events leading to an unprecedented emergency travel advisory," but I think the misunderstanding comes from the term "respiratoty failure." The patients who suffered "respiratory failure" did not necessarily die; rather, it means that their breathing had to be assisted in one form or another (often a mechanical respirator) until they were healthy enough to breathe without assistance.

I really would encourage those interested to look at the WHO reports. Unlike most of what's reported in the media, the WHO reports are far more scientific in detailing the facts that are known, the conclusions that can be drawn from those facts, and (often more importantly) the conclusions that cannot be deduced from those facts.

There's also a Singaporean woman who died, I think, on April 4, after traveling to China and Hong Kong. She was 29. I don't know her medical history, though. She, of course, is not among the HKG fatalities.