Cathay Pacific Asia Miles - Do you think that HKG health crisis will end before Jan. 22/2004?

That date is Chinese New Year. I intend to use an AAward to fly J to NZ/OZ for Christmas & New Year's. If I return home from Oz on QF, it costs 105K.
So far my plan is to use 150K to go to BKK on Jan. 16, then HKG on Jan. 19 or 20. I have a res. to use a GLONP at the Conrad HK for Jan. 19-25.
Shall I keep extending the Courtesy hold every 14 days to delay ticketing as long as possible; say Full Speed Ahead to Gung Hay Fat Choy; or forget it?

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Play the travel game 3 vacations into the future!

By Jan 22 2004? YES! The problem will be long resolved by then. Enjoy your trip!

[Edited to add UBB]

[This message has been edited by bedelman (edited 03-30-2003).]

Makes sense. After all, the Foot & Mouth Disease crisis in Britain & Ireland lasted only a few months.
The 2001 St. Patrick's Day parade was rescheduled for St. Brendan's Day http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/wink.gif weekend in mid-May.

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Play the travel game 3 vacations into the future!

All you have to do is praying at HK Government and Chinese Government do something and stop hiding the truth. (HK and Chinese Government first trying to hide the details during the first two weeks of the outbreak in Jan/Feb).

Otherwise, it may not be end by 2004.

I'm not aware that the HK Government is hiding the truth. If you go to their website here:

http://www.info.gov.hk/dh/ap.htm

you will find all osrts of data and advice.

Including the fact that 3000 people die of pneumonia in HK each year.

What it won't tell you is that HK Chinese are one of the most over-medicated populations in the world - the response to every little bug being a bag full of anti-biotics, and the result being mass hypochondria and pretty feeble immune systems in general.

40,000 gwailos (and a few Chinese) had a great time at the weekend shouting at each other drinking beer and undoubtedly exchanging a lot of respiratory fluids. We're not all going to die. In fact I'd be surprised if there is anything much more than a few severe hangovers going around. (Oh and a few sore throats/failing voices from all the shouting)

And England won AGAIN http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/biggrin.gif

If its not resolved by then, the whole world will be in trouble (since it's rapidly spreading.

I think it will be resolved in 3 weeks.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by christep:
And England won AGAIN http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/biggrin.gif</font>

And USA acutally got the Cup!

FYI - I saw your box but not you

Well, USA won the bottom third, and Canada the middle third, but England were the champs!

Sorry I missed you - I was in our box for about 90% of the time - visiting others for the rest... hope to see you there next year.

(Slightly confusingly we had two boxes for different parts of our business, but they were not as well differentiated as they should have been)

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by SHADO:
I think it will be resolved in 3 weeks.</font>

Extremely unlikely.

The HK government was under heavily pressure by its citizens, so the Government decided to "tell the truth".

Otherwise, their attitude is trying to hid the truth as they can, thus causing bigger crisis for them.

I am not an Austin Powers fan, but it strikes me that the HK government today is a mini-Me to Beijing's big guy. A thoroughly inept cast of characters who have managed to mismanage the old territory into complete disarray. And then have the audacity to raise taxes on the most vulnerable of all: Phillipina Maids! Scandalous. As has been the mainland's attempts to hide this epidemic.

I plan to fly CX mid-May... will wait another two weeks or so and see if I should get a refund and switch (NH? *drools at the new seats*).

Might get scrutinized by the Americans on return anyway since I'm going to Taiwan http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/tongue.gif

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by mileagerunner:
Extremely unlikely.</font>

I wager a ferry ticket to Macau that it will be resolved in 3 weeks.

I also want to add the first sentence of the WHO advisory that has been blown out of proportion by the media, scaring everyone into oblivion (like Y2K):

"WHO continues to recommend no travel restrictions to any destination" Source: http://www.cathaypacific.com/intl/news/2nd

Naturally the media (especially AOL TIME WARNER, VIACOM and MSNBC's General Electric) will purposely not state that first sentence to scare you to watch them more rather than being more vigilant (just my opinion and experience). Or even worse, the media will "Headline" you that it is an extreme danger, but the actual story is only a 'slice' of the full truth. In other words, distorted rhetoric.

3 weeks, or less. I'll bank on April 17th with CX.

[This message has been edited by SHADO (edited 03-31-2003).]

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by SHADO:
I wager a ferry ticket to Macau that it will be resolved in 3 weeks.</font>

A return Airport Express ticket to Central would be more useful http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/smile.gif

Of course, we need to define "resolve." If you mean that the authorities will shut down a few more ENTIRE housing blocks and close schools down for another week or two, then you might be right. If you mean that doctors will understand what exactly is causing SARS and there are no new cases, you are likely to be wrong.

We shall see my friend! I'm going to fly. The A340 will fly! http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/smile.gif

I have three trips planned over the next three months. I have already maxed out the repeat offer at 125K, hence each incremental trip yields ~160K miles/trip. I just pushed out my Friday April 4th departure for a few weeks to see how things pan out.

Now my company is considering halting all travel to Asia for the foreseeable future.
Maybe they’re trying to intentionally hurt CX’s profits http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/smile.gif

I'm not sure if the following quote will scare the travellers away.

Just saw the news that one Hong Kong officials described the SARS in Hong Kong as "Hong Kong is under terror (bio) attack, and our Government seems to have no idea how to respond".

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by Brendan:
That date is Chinese New Year. I intend to use an AAward to fly J to NZ/OZ for Christmas & New Year's. If I return home from Oz on QF, it costs 105K.
So far my plan is to use 150K to go to BKK on Jan. 16, then HKG on Jan. 19 or 20. I have a res. to use a GLONP at the Conrad HK for Jan. 19-25.
Shall I keep extending the Courtesy hold every 14 days to delay ticketing as long as possible; say Full Speed Ahead to Gung Hay Fat Choy; or forget it?

</font>

I think you can probably relax for a while. You're talking about 9 months from now!

Besides, I'm not quite sure what sort of an answer you expect to get.

This outbreak will run its course and then be over. No one knows whether that is going to take 3 days, 3 weeks, or 3 months. As they say, your guess is probably as good as anyone else's for the moment.

If this is still a problem in October, you may want to think of an alternate routing. Of course by then the whole world will be infected.

Actually, the crisis will end on Jan 20th. http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/smile.gif

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by Brendan:
That date is Chinese New Year. I intend to use an AAward to fly J to NZ/OZ for Christmas & New Year's. If I return home from Oz on QF, it costs 105K.
So far my plan is to use 150K to go to BKK on Jan. 16, then HKG on Jan. 19 or 20. I have a res. to use a GLONP at the Conrad HK for Jan. 19-25.
Shall I keep extending the Courtesy hold every 14 days to delay ticketing as long as possible; say Full Speed Ahead to Gung Hay Fat Choy; or forget it?

</font>

I'm not sure what answer you expect as another FTer said. The flu is a serious problem and if it is not cured and contained by then, you have more things to worry about than your trip.

With regards to HK govt hiding it, don't you think they need time to get the information organized and something like the web site they have no set up? No point in starting a massive panic and not have all the information you need to provide to the HK people regarding this flu?

WHO has issued travel advisory asking travellers not to visit Hong Kong and Guangdong.

The WHO advisory is being issued on a daily basis as events can change. Don't be surprised when it is not issued any longer that no one will know about it.

"All you have to do is praying at HK Government and Chinese Government do something and stop hiding the truth. (HK and Chinese Government first trying to hide the details during the first two weeks of the outbreak in Jan/Feb)." Your statement is partly wrong.
The Chinese Government hid the truth.
They continue to hide it. (kinda like no-one died in Tiananmen square they told us).
SARS was known in Guangdong in November last year. 3 months later the zero patient , a doctor from the Guangdong hospital came to HKG and stayed at the Metrople Kowloon hotel. He infected the carriers, probably in the lift lobby of the 9th floor who flew elsewhere taking the bug with them. The HK NonGovernment currently run poorly by former second stringers in the colonial government with an eye on their pensions rather than making sensible decisions, took two weeks to realise what they were faced with after the zero patient had died. Singapore instituted quarantine measures so the 2nd stringers followed suit, belatedly. Meanwhile they had let relatives visit the sick patients at Prince of Wales hospital and spread the bug further.
In an open space it is nigh impossible to get SARS. In a crowded environment where someone who is infected sneezes on you or you touch the virus deposited on a surface (stays alive for 2-3 hours) and you then touch your face then you might catch it.
So will the HK Govt shut down the MTR, the KCR and the buses where this thing is most likely spread ?
No chance.

SARS: WHO urges China to cooperate fully, doctor alleges cover-up

A team of World Health Organisation (WHO) epidemiologists has welcomed reported new cases of SARS in Beijing, and urged "full and open reporting" from the Chinese government on the outbreak.

"We don't want to comment on rumours, but new numbers are coming so this is an encouraging start," said Chris Powell, spokesman for the WHO team.

"We are always insisting that to address this outbreak you need full and open reporting."

There has been widespread speculation for weeks that the number of cases of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in Beijing is substantially higher
than officially admitted by the Chinese government.

A Chinese military doctor has taken the extraordinary step of accusing the health minister of covering up the number of people killed or infected in Beijing by the deadly flu-like virus.

Jiang Yanyong said in a letter sent to journalists that six people had died of SARS and 60 had been infected at Beijing's military-run 309 Hospital by last Thursday.

Health Minister Zhang Wenkang told a news conference on that day that Beijing had only 12 cases, three of whom died.

Dr Jiang said he and many other doctors and nurses had been angry when they heard Mr Zhang's statement.

"A failure to disclose accurate statistics about the illness will only lead to more deaths," Time magazine quoted him as saying.

Asked to comment on the allegation, a Health Ministry spokesman said military hospitals were not under Mr Zhang's jurisdiction.

The WHO team has spent about a week in Guangdong look into the origins of the illness.

The WHO team was to give the Chinese government a report on the SARS virus in Guangdong, where the potentially deadly virus is thought to have originated in November.

They were expected to report that the outbreak in Guangdong appeared to be contained, but would urge renewed health measures nationwide to combat the
outbreak, Western medical officials in Beijing said.

It had said the report would include recommendations, but gave no details.

At least 103 people have died worldwide from SARS and more than 2,700 have been infected in about 20 countries.

Nearly half the cases are in China.

And in the meantime (i.e. the last month) at least 20,000 people worldwide have DIED from normal influenza.

Stop trying to make this a bigger issue than it really is.

The fundamental diffrence from Influenza is the non availability of any effective vaccine as yet

No. There is not an effective generic vaccince against influenza (the problem being that there are many strains and they mutate and each vaccine is very specific). If there were do you think the US would let 20-30,000 people die of it each year?

There is an effective treatment regime for SARS. No-one has died from it in HK except those who were very old or chronically ill or who delayed seeking treatment for more than a week.

[This message has been edited by christep (edited 04-09-2003).]

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by Brendan:
That date is Chinese New Year. I intend to use an AAward to fly J to NZ/OZ for Christmas & New Year's. If I return home from Oz on QF, it costs 105K.
So far my plan is to use 150K to go to BKK on Jan. 16, then HKG on Jan. 19 or 20. I have a res. to use a GLONP at the Conrad HK for Jan. 19-25.
Shall I keep extending the Courtesy hold every 14 days to delay ticketing as long as possible; say Full Speed Ahead to Gung Hay Fat Choy; or forget it?

</font>

My goodness, it's 9 months away! You're expecting people to forecast the future? This sounds so much like the speculation over at UA about "Do you think my miles will be useless and do you think UA will liquidate?"

Does anyone know what I'm going to get for Christmas this year?

Any thoughts appeciated http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/smile.gif

Dear LondonElite,

Send a letter to

Father Christmas
North Pole
HOHOHO
Canada

and ask the big guy. (by the way - this is a real address and you will get an answer).

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by davistev:
(by the way - this is a real address and you will get an answer).</font>

I know, I used to live there (Canada, not North Pole)

Glad to see there is still some t-i-c humour on the CX board!