Cathay Pacific Asia Miles - CX766 SGN-HKG: On With the Masks, Off With the Smiles

Just took CX766 from Ho Chi Minh City back to HK today.

While a handful of passengers were wearing face masks at the boarding area, it was certainly a strange sight to step onboard to find the entire crew wearing masks. What's worse was that they all seemed alarmed, edgy and ill-at-ease (perhaps due to not yet having gotten used to the masks?).

I noticed little if any smiles from the crew for the better part of the flight. A couple of the FA's relaxed a bit towards the end and exhibited normal courteous service behavior, but all in all, it seemed tense. They also used plastic gloves when handling food trays.

The economy cabin was rather full (but business had only 2 or 3 passengers), and about 15% of the passengers had masks on. A couple of them (one Caucasian and one Asian, both probably American and business associates) even had gas masks on while they were boarding.

Personally I refrained from wearing my mask until the last half hour, after someone coughed in the row behind me and my seat mate sneezed.

(To top this off, some idiot stacked a heavy bag on top of my suitcase in the overhead bin, and his bag contained jars of pungent 'pickle juice', which spilled all over and inside my bag, and the overhead bin and onto the floor.)

Upon landing, all the ground crew (including cleaners, wheelchair handlers, etc.) was wearing masks. Even immigration staff wore masks. At the arrival hall, many also wore masks.

I certainly hope all this comes to an end real soon. This was by far the most unnerving flight I can recall.

[This message has been edited by sfvoyage (edited 03-29-2003).]

This is a fascinating report, and I think of general interest to the FT readership, irrespective of what airline they plan to take to Asia. I suggest that you post a link to it in the FT Trip Report forum so that it gets a broader readership.

Here in Taiwan.
Air crews have to wear masks when on board. All passengers will be given free masks and requsted to sign health questinare when arrival and departure.
Some flights are cancelled on HKG-TPE route.
People who took infected CX510 on april 21 are requsted to be quarantined... Their names will be publicized if they dont register to the health bureau yeah.
Things are getting worse and tense here.. http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/frown.gif
Cathay suddenly became the worst choice when flying.

There's no way this scare tactic is going to keep me away from CX. I find there is abuse in the system from the WHO, CDC, and overabused Ontario Health system concering this. Even through the initial reports are true when it started, I'm more than assured there is abuse and an organized effort to try and halt the record profits from CX and SQ.

A couple of facts come to mind. Two most importantly.

- The WHO listed Thailand as a country with reports. This is not true. There are no reports in Thailand.
- HKG-NRT is a *HUGE* route flown by numerous carriers. However, Japan has *ZERO* cases. I find this quite remarkable and surprising.

Another point I want to make is the symptons appear to be the common cold or flu. Therefore, I just have this instinctive feeling that many cases of the cold or flu are being accounted and included. I have not heard much information at all of those who have overcome their "colds", were released and are back with the rest of us (apparently cured by normal means??)...

This is becoming a media frenzy to strip the profits from the airlines that are making money, so the media can make money by increasing readers and viewers.

It's just an instinctive feeling.....just an instinct, but I trust it.

SHADO

[This message has been edited by SHADO (edited 03-29-2003).]

In order to discuss this issue further, I think we should keep the following facts in mind:

1. The whole problem is around atypical pneumonia, as we all know, it means it is not a typical pneumonia, and it is most probably caused by a virus that belong to the coronavirus family that are associated with the common flu and cold. Since it is a contagious airborne virus, and we all breathe through the same recycled air in a big metal tube while inflight, it is highly possible to spread the disease.

2. Because this is a viral pneumonia, there are currently no treatment for this type of illness except supportive measure. And for those who are already immunosupressed for whatever reasons, this virus will further compound to their problems. And as we heard from the reports, most of the people who died from this virus so far all had some types of underlying medical problems such as hepatitis, kidney failure, and respiratory problems, etc.

3. I believe they have already developed some types of assay that can detect the virus as fast as in an 8 hour period. So just having cold or flu WILL NOT be enough to let anyone to be classified as having SARS.

4. The reason no one in Japan has contacted the virus could simply because no one on those HKG-NRT flights have been infected with the virus yet. Bear in mind, the client population on that route are extremely different from HKG-SIN or HKG-SGN. And if anyone pays any attention, one should find out that a majority of the infected are of Chinese descend, the three that passed away in Canada were Chinese, the Singapore physician who was stopped in Germany is Chinese, and so on.

5. If this conspiracy theory of the media trying to increase viewerships by blowing this deadly virus out of proportions, we would surely have heard a lot more about it than the war in Iraq. As I recalled, I haven't heard or seen anything about the disease mentioned at any nightly news on ABC, NBC, CBS or FOX in the past week.

6. Lastly, I am sure American, United, Northwest, Continental, or even JAL were all behind this whole thing trying to halt the RECORD PROFITS for CX and SQ.

7. Now, here is the question to you all: Would you feel as comfortable if all the FAs start wearing masks and gloves to serve you your meals and drinks inflight especially in the premium class cabins? Remember, the moment you sneeze or cough, you will probably be treated like a second class citizen having the virus...

Anyway, Facts YES, Media Fenzy Absolutely NO.

Must be something to do with Vietnam being a centre too.

I flew the 828 to YYZ yesterday. While most of the pax (all Chinese, none of the caucasians) were masked up, none of the crew were , neither were gate staff, lounge or check in agents. Some, but by no means all of the immigration and security staff were taking precautions.

However, on arrival at Toronto, it was a bit like arriving in a biological warfare zone - masks everywhere and loads of fuss being made.

Originally posted by DallasPlatinum:
4. The reason no one in Japan has contacted the virus could simply because no one on those HKG-NRT flights have been infected with the virus yet. Bear in mind, the client population on that route are extremely different from HKG-SIN or HKG-SGN.

That's speculation you know. And since numbers don't lie, I see 20 times the number of flights from HKG-NRT vs HKG-YYZ and still the number is ZERO for Japan and apparently 30+ for YYZ. A virus doesn't discriminate.

5. If this conspiracy theory of the media trying to increase viewerships by blowing this deadly virus out of proportions, we would surely have heard a lot more about it than the war in Iraq. As I recalled, I haven't heard or seen anything about the disease mentioned at any nightly news on ABC, NBC, CBS or FOX in the past week.

Oh, it has absolutely has been mentioned. However, I'm not manipulated by the distortions of those 4 networks. Mind you, NBC is GE, CBS is Viacom, ABC is Disney, and FOX is News Corp. Now those networks become larger all of a sudden and their distorted push is worldwide, not necessarily the United States. Actually it was the CBC that has made SARS their top story, showcasing how scared everyone was, taking extra precausions. If you ever worked in the media, I have, you'll find that the people who work there are much more interested in gaining viewers rather than reporting for public interest. It was CNN that had the WHO spokesperson on, worldwide, and what they stated was a bunch of statements that in-turn made any symption, a symption os SARS. It was disturbing that speculation from the WHO was pushed forward, rather than doing fast scientific research to warn people with more answers. A scare tactic design.

6. Lastly, I am sure American, United, Northwest, Continental, or even JAL were all behind this whole thing trying to halt the RECORD PROFITS for CX and SQ.

Not JAL, Japan is not affected with SARS. Zero Cases. But yes for AA, UA, NW, and CO. All bankrupt airlines with garbage service losing passengers to CX and SQ. I happen to be one of those PAX who made the switch.

7. Now, here is the question to you all: Would you feel as comfortable if all the FAs start wearing masks and gloves to serve you your meals and drinks inflight especially in the premium class cabins? Remember, the moment you sneeze or cough, you will probably be treated like a second class citizen having the virus...

A scare tactic by the WHO, CDC and the Media, specifically the United States media like CNN. Do you really think CNN cares? Not a chance.

Anyway, Facts YES, Media Fenzy Absolutely NO.

Numbers don't lie and the Media relies on ratings and money which are numbers. Media Frenzy, absolutely YES! The next story you will see is Elisabeth Smart comes down with SARS in Iraq.


[This message has been edited by SHADO (edited 03-29-2003).]

I dont know and not sure about media or WHO policy. The truth in asia here is highly alerted. It has been proven that it can be transmitted on flight if any carrier on board. Now we are dealing with one virus which might be dangerous than ever seen. In other words, we are facing health and human life. It is never too much or overemphasize the disease. Better to do more than getting regreted. Take one example. HK forum condemns China hided the truth of disease so the prevention is delayed and causing the outbreak of hk.
The truth in asia is we are running of masks, infected victims are doubling and lethal cases do happen.
All people around the world have the rights to know the truth and take preventions.
Better to panic and do more than outbreak and tragety

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by SHADO:
The WHO listed Thailand as a country with reports. This is not true. There are no reports in Thailand. </font>

Not true as of today Thailand has three confirmed cases and 1 death.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by SHADO:
This is becoming a media frenzy to strip the profits from the airlines that are making money, so the media can make money by increasing readers and viewers.
</font>

Please http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/rolleyes.gif

DallasPlatinum, good analysis.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by SHADO:

I find there is abuse in the system from the WHO, CDC, and overabused Ontario Health system concering this...I'm more than assured there is abuse and an organized effort to try and halt the record profits from CX and SQ.
</font>

Maybe we should consider the *truth* -
1. Hewlett Packard has closed its operations temporarily in HK, over 300 staff need not attend work for a week.
2. CX itself has affected staff with the result that MPC and Asiamiles are only manned 12 out of 24 hours now - see other thread.
3. All schools, from Kindergarten, primary, secondary to all universities are closed, affecting upwards of 1,000,000 people.
4. Staff at HSBC (aka Hong Kong Bank) Headquarters were infected resulting in closure of that part of Hong Kong Bank Headquarters.
5. Likewise, staff at Bank of East Asia and Bank of China have been infected resulting in closures of their own branches.
6. Again, even the Central Library had staff infected resulting in closure for 3 days.
7. These are just instances. But all cases of infection were confirmed.

Can anyone really say this is just a conspiracy against CX?

The fallacy of your theory is evident in your post itself. You rely on your own hunch which turns out to be wrong. One needs to look at facts, backed by scientific research and empirical data, objectively.


[This message has been edited by IncyWincy (edited 03-29-2003).]

pressed wrong button, sorry!

[This message has been edited by IncyWincy (edited 03-29-2003).]

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by IncyWincy:
Maybe we should consider the *truth* -
1. Hewlett Packard has closed its operations temporarily in HK, over 300 staff need not attend work for a week.
2. CX itself has infected staff with the result that MPC and Asiamiles are only manned 12 out of 24 hours now - see other thread.
3. All schools, from Kindergarten, primary, secondary to all universities are closed, affecting upwards of 1,000,000 people.
4. Staff at HSBC (aka Hong Kong Bank) Headquarters were infected resulting in closure of that part of Hong Kong Bank Headquarters.
5. Likewise, staff at Bank of East Asia and Bank of China have been infected resulting in closures of their own branches.
6. Again, even the Central Library had staff infected resulting in closure for 3 days.
7. These are just instances. But all cases of infection were confirmed.

Can anyone really say this is just a conspiracy against CX?

The fallacy of your theory is evident in your post itself. You rely on your own hunch which turns out to be wrong. One needs to look at facts, backed by scientific research and empirical data, objectively.


[This message has been edited by IncyWincy (edited 03-29-2003).]</font>

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by SHADO:

Media Frenzy, absolutely YES! The next story you will see is Elisabeth Smart comes down with SARS in Iraq.

</font>

I see. The Chief Executive Officer of Hong Kong Hospital Authority (or whatever its new formal name is), Dr. William Ho, himself also caught the disease. This was confirmed by the Hong Kong Government and Dr. Ho himself issued a press release to this effect. Are you saying that the Hong Kong Govt is leading or participating in this Media Frenzy, and , to make it real, infected the CEO of Hospital Authority? OR maybe Dr. Ho's illness is just a scam to destroy CX?

Would the HK Govt wish to destroy CX?

&lt;I'm more than assured there is abuse and an organized effort to try and halt the record profits from CX and SQ.&gt;

This is the most stupid response I have ever seen! Period.

Just to correct others, all flights from Vietnam to Hong Kong and vv. are operated by Vietnam Airlines and not Cathay Pacific. CX only code-shares on this route.

It is highly unlikely that CX will go out of business as a result of this virus. CX has a strong balance sheet and I am sure the management knows what action to take. It just happens that the airline around the world have been hit by both the Iraqi War and now the Virus. Therefore, this problem is not only isolated to CX but to all airlines either through the effects of war or a mixture of both.

I am confident that a medical breakthrough will be sort in due course and things will recover. We are at the worst case scenario at present so we should all be opportunists and hope for the best in the aviation industry.

God Bless.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by cx_mpo:
Just to correct others, all flights from Vietnam to Hong Kong and vv. are operated by Vietnam Airlines and not Cathay Pacific. CX only code-shares on this route.
</font>

Actually CX operate a daily service into Ho Chi Minh (CX766/767). Another CX service (CX762/763) is the one that codeshares with Vietnam Airlines.

Oops! Must have pressed wrong button!

Got off earlier today on a CX flight from HKG to ICN. All the staff on board (didn't see the pilots, though) were wearing face masks, and so were a fair number of the passengers (about the same proportion as the streets of HK).

Personally, I couldn't care less about this thing, except its impacting everybody else who's in a snit over this. Schools shutdown, pools shutdown, general panic, very unbecoming. So it affects me in the sense that it infringes on my everyday life because everybody else seems to be worried about this thing.

My view is that it is indeed a nasty disease, and that one should take reasonable, simple precautions to avoid getting it. If you are so concerned, why not stay home then? Little chance of getting it, no? On Sunday I was a Causeway Bay, the place was mobbed as usual, with many people wearing those idiotic face masks. I even saw some people smoking through the mask. If you have some concerns, perhaps you might not want to be in crowded areas, mask or no mask.

Besides, what's the worst that can happen? That I die? What is the probability of that happening, if it is diagnosed early enough? Sure, I'll feel like krep for a while, just as if I caught a mean flu, of which there are plenty in HK. I don't think this thing deserves any extreme additional precautions besides the ones taken normally when there is a bug going around, like washing hands frequently, not touching your face with your hands, avoid crowded areas, get plenty of sleep, exercise, etc.

This is a major story here in Toronto, but the centre of the infections have been among Chinese family members who became infected on the mainland, then returning to YYZ on CX or AC flights. Since most affluent Chinese live in the northern outskirts of Toronto proper, the couple of infected individuals went to the Scarborough Grace hospital, which services that end of the city. Before authorities could make the link, these emergency ward patients had possibly subjected hospital staff and visitors to the hospital to infection. It is on this basis, that Canadian authorities have issued their alert, and the fact that potentially many hundreds of Chinese family members could have recently arrived in the Toronto area infected. [Two other hospitals have had cases, and one has been temporarily shut down.]

The virus is not considered air borne, but rather is transmitted by liquids: sneeze, saliva, etc.

As for the lack of incidents in Japan, or other gateways in NAmerica -- beyond the case of the doctor in NYC -- I suspect this is because most travellers will not have been subject to infection on their travels to Hong Kong or China. It appears to be Chinese who have spent considerable time visiting with relatives "back home" who brought the infection over. Toronto is a major centre -- as is Vancouver -- for Chinese immigrants from both mainland and Hong Kong, so most sensitive to potential infection.

Authorities are acting to quarantine anyone who came in contact with the cases, or were in the affected hospitals, until the 10-day period is over.

BTW, AC's FAs had asked the airline to be able to wear masks and gloves on flights to/from HKG and Beijing. The airline has refused, but what is happening in the air is not known.

As SanDiego1K has noted, this should be posted in a more general area of FT as well, given the import.

I think the US media has given next to no attention to the matter, in part because there are so few cases down there. It is quite different for Canadian media, where this has driven the War out of the lead story placement.

This may be of interest since it provides a good overview of the virus and how it is being handled over here:

http://makeashorterlink.com/?E2F05228

The real issue is why Chinese authorities did not alert anyone outside the country of the infection, and this new strand of virus. Instead, they let it loose on the world, and only after hospitals in SIN and HKG started treating cases, was the rest of the world made aware of what has been an epidemic in certain provinces of China, and it appears parts of Viet Nam. This verges on criminal behavior, but I guess something to expect from a regime as currupt and evil as that in Bagdad.

[This message has been edited by Shareholder (edited 03-30-2003).]

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Besides, what's the worst that can happen? That I die? What is the probability of that happening, if it is diagnosed early enough? </font>

The probability that you would die is roughly 5%. That's the approximate percentage of infected people who have died so far. And what's also alarming is that like pandemics of the past, many of the victims are young, healthy people ...

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by CanuckFlyer:
The probability that you would die is roughly 5%. That's the approximate percentage of infected people who have died so far. And what's also alarming is that like pandemics of the past, many of the victims are young, healthy people ...</font>

Ah, but you have forgotten that 5% is the conditional probability IF I get the disease. The total probability of death has to be 5% multiplied by the probability of getting the disease, which is, a rough estimate, say, 1000/7,000,000 (7M being the population of HK) or about 1 in 7,000. Including your 5% estimate of death conditioned on getting the disease, we are looking at (roughly) 1 in 140,000. Sounds pretty low to me.

Also, contrary to your misconceptions (and I ought to know, I was in HK just this morning, and will be back there later this week), I don't believe anybody under 39 has died of the infection in HK. Everybody who has died was either (a) elderly, (b) with a previous respiratory condition, (c) came in close, extended contact with people infected (e.g. doctors, nurses, family members), or (d) was diagnosed too late, before the symptoms of SARS had been fully characterized.

Thus, if we condition your 5% on (a), (b), (c), and (d), the chances of a healthy person dying of the disease IF they were to become sick, I'd say is lower than that. Put a number to it, say 1%.

Then the probability of getting the disease and dying from it becomes 1 in 700,000. I'll take my chances. And if I'm really terrified, hey, I might as well stay home alone, bringing my chances of dying of the disease down to zero.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by CanuckFlyer:
many of the victims are young, healthy people ...</font>

In HK the youngest person who has died is aged 39. The vast majority of the victims are in their 60s-80s.

Let's keep this all in proportion folks. 3000 people die in HK every year from pneumonia. Tens of thousands die from pneumonia in the US or UK.

I have just spent all weekend in a stadium in HK with 40,000 people, less than 100 of whom were wearing masks (excluding the joke ones). We were screaming, shouting, sharing jugs of beer, all the usual stuff; plenty of bodily excretions were flying around. And it was the usual absolutely awesome weekend at the HK Sevens. (And England won AGAIN http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/biggrin.gif }

There are not going to be 40,000 dead gwailos next week. I'd be surprised if anyone at all who was there is hospitalised.

The whole thing is blown ludicrously out of proportion. I mean today's SCMP had a front page headline that an 83 year old man had died of pneumonia. It happened to be this specific SARs form, but frankly that isn't so important: 8-9 old people die of pneumonia every day here.

Let's look at things from a different perspective:

Just because tens of thousands of people are dying from pneumonia worldwide on a daily basis, does it make it not a big deal? Now, if anyone does not think it's anything of concerns at all. Then I suggest you stop reading on.

Now, what makes this whole atypical pneumonia a concern is that it is a viral pneumonia. And there are currently no effective treatment for this nasty illness. Granted supportive measures like anti-viral and anti-bacterial therapy may help in some degrees, but it is not guaranteed.

So, the question is, knowing that there are these unknown viruses around, and if one is not decently healthy with a good immune system, should one be ignoring the health authority's advices and pretend nothing is going on?

Surely, nobody is pointing a gun at your forehead to tell you to wear a mask, but I would think anyone who has any concerns about his or her own well being would take some kinds of precautions.

Having things said, can we all blame the media for reporting what is going on around? Or can we blame the airlines or airport authorities for being too overly cautious? If I happen to be in a foreign country known to have the epidemic, I definitely would want the respective government is doing something to protect the public.

I am sure one will argue, the probability of getting sick from this illness is minimal, but remember, the chance is always 50/50, either you get it or not. Now if we base our way of thinking on those assumptions, does it make it alright not to wear seatbelts when we drive, since the probability of crashing is so low? Shall we add more subfactors into the crashing analysis like the driver's age, timing, location, and etc, etc, etc....? Does it make it alright for us not to wear the lapbelts when the captains turn on the fasten the seat belt signs when a turbulence is forcasted because the forcast is not absolute?

The sad thing I learned about this whole virus thing is the government in certain countries have decided to downplay the incidence when they first found out about the illness, probably because they were afraid of the MEDIA FENZY, if things were done differently, the illness may have contained a little better than they are now. But again, we would never know since it is a past decision made.

The bottom line is, let's focus on what we can do now as regular people to fight against the virus, and not take things for granted anymore.

Pickles, I was speaking of the conditional probability. In answering IncyWincy's question "What is the probability of that happening, if it is diagnosed early enough?" I answered "The probability that you would die is roughly 5%. That's the approximate percentage of infected people who have died so far." That is, conditional on someone getting infected, the probability of death is about 5%.

I also stand by the 'young and healthy' portion of my post. You mention a 39 year old who died of SARS. I consider 39 young. Quoting one (http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1035780072850&call_pageid=968867505381&col=969048872038) of the many (http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&lr=&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&q=young+healthy+sars&sa=N&tab=wn) news stories about SARS affecting young, healthy people: "The scary thing about SARS is that it can kill young, healthy people, such as 44-year-old Chi Kwai Tse who died of SARS at Scarborough Grace hospital on March 14."

http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/latest/story/0,4390,180281,00.html?

Useful info re:current idea of medical spread of SARS in part

"Health Minister Lim Hng Kiang warned on Sunday that Sars is more contagious that previously thought, saying that airplane passengers could infect people two rows ahead and two rows behind them. "

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by DallasPlatinum:

I am sure one will argue, the probability of getting sick from this illness is minimal, but remember, the chance is always 50/50, either you get it or not. Now if we base our way of thinking on those assumptions, does it make it alright not to wear seatbelts when we drive, since the probability of crashing is so low? Shall we add more subfactors into the crashing analysis like the driver's age, timing, location, and etc, etc, etc....? Does it make it alright for us not to wear the lapbelts when the captains turn on the fasten the seat belt signs when a turbulence is forcasted because the forcast is not absolute?

</font>

I agree with these sentiments completely. However, knowing that the chance of being in a car crash is low, should you worry excessively, to the point of affecting your daily life, about getting in a car every time? Just put on your seatbelt and drive! (carefully, of course). People who worry excessively about small probability events (such as car crashes, plane crashes, epidemias, pandemics, muggings, death) oftentimes are in need of psychiatric help. And that's what is happening in HK. The place is like one big loony asylum at this moment, where everybody appears to be a either a patient or a doctor in a hospital. How long before we start seeing psychosomatic illness "reports" from otherwise perfectly healthy people? That should add fuel to the fire...

And by the way, methinks you are confusing probabilistic expectations with ex-post outcomes. Of course, at the end of the exercise, either you get SARS or you don't. However, one cannot say that the chance of getting it is 50/50. Chances only apply ex-ante and in expectation.

Sorry to be such a pedant, but I was trained as one, and it is thinking like this that further causes people to over-estimate risk in general and get them all, collectively, in a snit. And no, I'm not EXP@15's long-lost relative.

[This message has been edited by Pickles (edited 03-30-2003).]

Ex ante or Ex post, people judge things differently, and as a result, reactions are different.
Being risk averse is certainly not the same as over-estimating them, all a matter of opinion.

Thanks for sharing this. I was in Hong Kong 2 weeks ago and it didnt seem as bad. I guess things are changing...

I just took 889 from JFK to YVR and HKG. Crew were wearing masks and plastic gloves. Some passengers also had masks. A health declaration sheet needs to be filled out if one wishes to enter HKG. All passport control officers were wearing masks. Some people airside but not all. A couple of staff at the Pier also had masks.

I took JL from NRT to JFK. No gloves or masks but an announcement on SARS was made before landing at JFK and we all were given a yellow slip advising us what to do if we find ourselves having any of the symptoms.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by DallasPlatinum:
Ex ante or Ex post, people judge things differently, and as a result, reactions are different.
Being risk averse is certainly not the same as over-estimating them, all a matter of opinion.

</font>

That's a very good question. Being risk averse means that you don't take chances, but you know what the chances are. Being innumerate and unable to consider the probabilities "correctly" means that you have no priors, and thus will assume the worst-case outcome (i.e. I'm getting the disease) even if the chance of getting sick is very small. That's what apparently going on in HK right now. Of course, being both highly risk averse (all humans are risk averse in general) and innumerate at the same time is a killa combination. As my mother says, "there is no worse obstacle than an idiot with initiative".

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by Pickles:
People who worry excessively about small probability events oftentimes are in need of psychiatric help. And that's what is happening in HK. The place is like one big loony asylum at this moment...]</font>

Normally I'd agree with the above. However, these sentiments are too harsh and inappropriate for this situation.

Let's not forget that we're dealing with a new disease that's incurable, that's spreading easier and more efficiently than previously imagined, and that health experts are still trying to understand...

Moreover, HK people are subjected to worsening news every day, media and government announcements telling people to stay in, disinfect their homes and clothes (March 30 was 'cleanup day'), etc. High profile people (hospital administrative officials) are getting sick...

Judging from the past couple of days, about a third or more of people walking on the streets are wearing masks, two-third or more in public transit are doing so.

Yesterday (Sunday, when Filipina maids congregrate en masse in public areas and on the streets, on their only day off), Filipina maids were almost all wearing masks, some even pushing theirs down closer to their face with their hands. I later read that a Filipina maid had died of SARS.

As I reported originally, it was strange to see an entire CX crew wearing masks. But then a SQ FA has come down with SARS (she had worked in the same section where the infected Singaporean doctor was sitting), and the entire SQ crew has been grounded.

Dozens of residents living on a few floors of one of the mega housing estates have also come down with SARS. The bulk of HK residents live in such housing.

In the final analysis, when things become personal, statistics get thrown out the door. The emotional takes over; that's human nature.

Yes, wearing a face mask while walking all by yourself on the streets - this is also a strange new byproduct of SARS: streets and public places that are not jam-packed with pushy people shoving into one another - struck me as a bit silly. Washing your hands frequently and not touching your eyes, nose and mouth seem to be a better precautionary measure.

But then again, health officials have publicly stated that they cannot rule out the virus is air-borne, and they've stated that the virus seems to survive up to 3 hours in the air or on surfaces. So who's to say that an affected person hadn't walked by half an hour before you and sneezed?

Yes, statistically speaking, this scenario carries negligible probability. However, when faced with an unknown disease that has struck your coworkers, doctors, neighbors, government officials, well, I would have to set science aside and make allowances for emotional response, rational or not.

To be fair, the HK Government hasn't been totally swift and effective in communicating information and executing a response plan. (Just as early as last week, it was telling people to get enough sleep, eat well, and exercise, among other things!) As more cases surface, they are playing catch up and understandably causing more alarm.

If one really needs to fix the blame on someone, I'd pick the provincial Guangdong government, whose officials have been quoted in the South China Morning Post (3/30) as having admitted to suppressing notice of the first outbreak of the disease a few months back, for fear of hurting tourism and investment dollars.


[This message has been edited by sfvoyage (edited 03-30-2003).]

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by sfvoyage:
Normally I'd agree with the above. However, these sentiments are too harsh and inappropriate for this situation.

Let's not forget that we're dealing with a new disease that's incurable, that's spreading easier and more efficiently than previously imagined, and that health experts are still trying to understand...

Yesterday (Sunday, when Filipina maids congregrate en masse in public areas and on the streets, on their only day off), Filipina maids were almost all wearing masks, some even pushing theirs down closer to their face with their hands. I later read that a Filipina maid had died of SARS.

In the final analysis, when things become personal, statistics get thrown out the door. The emotional takes over; that's human nature.

Yes, wearing a face mask while walking all by yourself on the streets - this is also a strange new byproduct of SARS: streets and public places that are not jam-packed with pushy people shoving into one another - struck me as a bit silly. Washing your hands frequently and not touching your eyes, nose and mouth seem to be a better precautionary measure.

Yes, statistically speaking, this scenario carries negligible probability. However, when faced with an unknown disease that has struck your coworkers, doctors, neighbors, government officials, well, I would have to set science aside and make allowances for emotional response, rational or not.

</font>

Very thoughtful message, in particular the allowances for irrationality. Some comments:

(1) This thing, up to this point (and it has been going on for effectively 4-5 months, if you count the coverup time from the mainland) has proven to be, in my opinion, no different than your "average" flu outbreak, in that it is not curable, and spreads quickly and efficiently. Of course, apparently not any more efficiently than your average hardy flu virus. The fact that the symptoms have never been seen before in -this- form is what has the WHO worried.

(2) People can choose to behave irrationally, and they certainly are. However, when the mass hysteria is impacting daily life and activity, in ways that are seriously impacting the bulk of the population, then you've got a spillover problem that is much worse than a bunch of infected people in hospitals.

(3) If the fear is so extreme, why would people still choose to congregate in large numbers (with masks on, of course) anyway? I didn't see much reduction in the crowds in Causeway Bay, or the standard sea of Filipina and Thai maids at the HSBC building on their day off. If you are really afraid of this thing, stay home, then. In my opinion, not only are these fears overblown, people are responding in ways that are inconsistent with their own fear...

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by Pickles:
Very thoughtful message, in particular the allowances for irrationality. Some comments:

(1) This thing, up to this point (and it has been going on for effectively 4-5 months, if you count the coverup time from the mainland) has proven to be, in my opinion, no different than your "average" flu outbreak, in that it is not curable, and spreads quickly and efficiently. Of course, apparently not any more efficiently than your average hardy flu virus. The fact that the symptoms have never been seen before in -this- form is what has the WHO worried. </font>

Yes, exactly, this is a new form! The "average" flu has been around for decades and doesn't get the 'benefit' of fresh, new, and urgent attention from global governments and media, WHO, etc. Worldwide medical experts are still trying to figure this out (no consensus yet on whether this is air-borne, for instance). Fear of the unknown is understandably causing panic.

[/QUOTE]

(3) If the fear is so extreme, why would people still choose to congregate in large numbers (with masks on, of course) anyway? If you are really afraid of this thing, stay home, then. In my opinion, not only are these fears overblown, people are responding in ways that are inconsistent with their own fear...[/B][/QUOTE]

People are wearing masks because the government has advised them to do so. People are still going out because the government has not told them they need to stay home, unless they are ill or have come into contact with those who are. (There is, however, a quarantine policy for SARS patients, and those who live with or have come into contact with the SARS patients are now supposed to report to specific government clinics regularly for check-ups.)

Actually I was making fun of all the silly HK people wearing these silly masks until a couple of days ago. Now, with escalating cases and deaths, and still not many answers from the experts, I don't find this silly anymore. In fact, I'd give credit for the HK population for being responsible and not being overly hysterical. They are following government guidelines - but at the same time rightfully criticizing the government for not taking decisive actions sooner.

Let's hope we figure this out soon. I'm sure many interesting multi-disciplinary books and dissertations will come out of this. What a sobering reminder that we do indeed live in a global village, and everything hangs on a delicate balance.

On my flight, 889 from JFK-YVR-HKG, not all of them were wearing masks and gloves. I was greeted by two attendants at the door who were without them. But as I proceeded to my seat, I noticed two of them wearing masks. Apparently JFK-YVR was served by YVR-based crew. One of them told me she was not wearing neighter a mask or gloves because the flight was originating in JFK. She wore both on her previous flight from YVR to JFK as it carried most passengers from HKG.

As we boarded, someone asked a crew if they could spare him a mask but they didn't have them for passengers.

On the YVR-HKG leg, more crew were wearing masks and gloves. But a couple of them went through without wearing them.

Foods -- fruit plates and entrees -- were provided with plastic covers placed on them, which we removed before eating.

As I said in the previous post, I took JL, which conveniently has masks all the time for premium cabin passengers. It's part of their amenities. But the JL flight to JFK was just as normal. None was wearing gloves or masks.

I also took UA from HKG to NRT. One crew, who looked like Chinese, was wearing a mask. I also noticed the chief purser, who was taking care of the first class cabin, was wearing gloves. Besides these two people, no one had masks or gloves.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by Pickles:
(3) If the fear is so extreme, why would people still choose to congregate in large numbers (with masks on, of course) anyway? I didn't see much reduction in the crowds in Causeway Bay, or the standard sea of Filipina and Thai maids at the HSBC building on their day off. If you are really afraid of this thing, stay home, then. In my opinion, not only are these fears overblown, people are responding in ways that are inconsistent with their own fear...[/B]</font>

1. Well, the statistics for the "congregation" of the Filipina maids this past Sunday show much smaller numbers with most wearing masks. That they do congregate is not without reason. For many, that is their only reasonable place/time/way to meet their fellow townmates, to pass on things to send home, or take delivery of such things from home.

My understanding is that they are predominantly Filipinas. Not Thais or Sri Lankans.

2. For the first time in its history, cinemas in the busiest districts such as Causeway Bay have had *NO* audience. Not even one person bought a ticket with the result that the movie was not shown. This included the UA. When there was business, there were only 2 in the audience.

It has now been confirmed that an UN official originally from Switzerland (or Finland as some reports say?) contracted SARS on his trip to Asia (first Bankok) then Beijing and DIED in Beijing.

http://www.cnn.com/2003/HEALTH/04/06/sars.beijing/index.html

According to the report the man was 53 and said he thought he contracted the disease whilst on board his flight from Bangkok to Beijing.

On a separate note, BA has decided to curtail direct flights to HK and not to have any of their staff spend nights in HK.

My YVR-JFK flight yesterday was just about the worst type of service I've ever encountered on a CX flight.

Okay the flight was late, that wasn't their fault. But the attitude of the F/A's left a lot to be desired. Maybe it's just this batch of YVR based crew?

They all wore masks and some had latex gloves. They offered masks when boarding but I declined. I was in 3A and there were 2 other passengers.

I agree with the orinaly poster of this post. Once the masks go on, the smiles go off and one can tell if they're genuine or not because all you're looking at are their eyes. I don't mind the masks when they're serving and attending to passengers, but why the double standards when the crew are standing around in the galley chatting with the masks off? When I poked in my head to ask for a glass of water, all of the attendants immediately put on their masks before anyone would even talk to me.

I was worried about catching my connecting flight (on UA to London). Had the flight been on time, I would have had ample time to clear immigration and then proceed to UA. Thank goodness both CX and UA use the same Terminal 7. (CX/UA RTW ticket that's why!) But with the delay, I would have to make the connection in less than 45 minutes. And to clear immigration on top of that! When I expressed my concern to the First Class flight attendant, her very intelligent reply was, "Maybe UA's flight would be delayed as well." Meanwhile her eyes are saying, "Don't bother me with your problems."

Anyway, after the aircraft landed, I made it out of there, through immigration, customs, and upstairs to UA check-in in less than 10 minutes!

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">According to the report the man was 53 and said he thought he contracted the disease whilst on board his flight from Bangkok to Beijing.</font>
Thailand officials report that no other passengers on the Flight from Bangkok to Beijing have gotten sick with SARS. Kind of hard to imagine the official caught it on the plane when he is the only one that got sick.

Two points
I flew from Bangkok yesterday on CX 712
Another Diamond member was next to me (good old Thai groudstaff - there were 14 people in the whole Biz section) . The IEM (a Eurasian man) did not bother to say hello to us, the cabin staff wore masks, the IEM put on an international long haul movie for 15 minutes then shut it down and rebooted the system and put on the usual BKK short haul programme, he did not announce the baggage collection carousel, there was no starter with the Biz class meal and etc etc
Mask capabilities - Straits Times newspaper

"N-95 masks generate static electricity, which is effective in stopping very small particles from getting on the surface of the mask.
They are made of polypropylene fibre, using a non-woven technology that increases the density and filtering function. Small particles above 0.3 micron cannot pass through.
N-95 masks are often used to protect against highly transmissible respiratory infections such as tuberculosis.
In comparison, ordinary surgical masks can only stop droplets and viruses that are more than 4 microns in diameter, such as the influenza virus which causes the common cold.
Still, doctors say neither are a necessity in most circumstances.
Dr Ling Moi Lin, infection control officer at Singapore General Hospital, says that the Ministry of Health has already taken extensive steps to isolate anyone who is really ill with Sars, or quarantine those who have come into contact with a Sars patient.
'People can't get Sars out of nowhere. It is spread by droplets, and you have to be within a 1-m zone of a Sars patient who sneezes or coughs. There is little chance of getting Sars in a common environment which is not crowded.'
Sars, which is a strain of the cold-causing coronavirus, is currently not believed to be airborne, meaning that it cannot float through the air.
Instead, it can only be passed by direct contact with an infected person or with an object he has touched.
Still, that has not stopped some Singaporeans from rushing to mask up.
The N-95 is available in a smaller size, but is unlikely to fit children under the age of eight.
WHAT TO WEAR
AN ORDINARY surgical mask is adequate for people with a common cough and cold.
A paper mask offers no protection against most viruses as it does not have a filter, unlike the three-ply surgical mask.
Avoid masks made of woven materials, such as cotton or gauze, because viral particles can go through them.
So while they are cute, cloth masks decorated with cartoon characters will not give adequate protection.
An effective barrier mask should have nose clips so that the mask conforms to the face and allows no room for gaps."

1 millimeter = 0.001 meter
1 micron = 0.000001 meter
1 nanometer = 0.000000001 meter (nm)
1 SARS coronavirus 60-220 nm