Frontier Airlines EarlyReturns - Orlando to Greensboro Route

The daily O&D is 70, so 35 people each way. 35 x 7 is 245 /3 (3x weekly) is about 82. So even if they get every person who flies this route, they would still only fill 82 seats on each flight. There are 138 seats on an A319, so 56 seats are going to go out empty on each flight.

How is Frontier going to make any money off this route? Are they getting a subsidy?

The daily O&D is 70, so 35 people each way. 35 x 7 is 245 /3 (3x weekly) is about 82. So even if they get every person who flies this route, they would still only fill 82 seats on each flight. There are 138 seats on an A319, so 56 seats are going to go out empty on each flight.

How is Frontier going to make any money off this route? Are they getting a subsidy?

Before Frontier started DEN-PHF, there were some 16 (O&D) pax per day each way. Yet it sustains a daily A319 with high load factors.

I expect GSO-MCO to do quite well.

I think what typically happens is that it stimulates additional traffic like davywavy said. Does anyone know additional information about this new service...like which terminal at GSO it will operate from and if they are any plans in the works to add GSO-MKE or GSO-DEN (MKE had been rumored for awhile a year ago).

Before Frontier started DEN-PHF, there were some 16 (O&D) pax per day each way. Yet it sustains a daily A319 with high load factors.

I expect GSO-MCO to do quite well.

I agree as well. I'm sure those route will done extremely very well. Didn't DL & G4 has already flies GSO-MCO/SFB & FLL before?

It's somewhat of an iffy proposition to assume that the reported DoT traffic numbers accurately describe the true number of people in a market. Here are reasons that the potential GSO-MCO market is much larger than the 35 or so passengers per day each way:

(1) At about 10 hours of driving, many people choose to drive rather than taking a relatively-high-fare connecting flight. Even with ample, cheap nonstop service GSO-MCO there are many families who will drive But Frontier's service will grab some of that market.

(2) Some people in the GSO catchment area choose to drive to RDU or CLT for nonstop, (possibly) cheap service. Again, some of them who check GSO first will find Frontier's flights attractive.

(3) Some people flying from the Greensboro area head to areas around Tampa, Daytona, Melbourne, etc, will fly nonstop into Orlando instead.

(4) The report of 35/day each way may be under-reported as some regional airlines don't report. So if someone is flying GSO-CLT-MCO, if the regional airline flying the GSO-CLT segment does not report, it may not show up in the stats. It's not clear if there is any undercount in GSO-MCO, but there may be because so many GSO-xxx-MCO flights involve a connection with a regional carrier.

The biggest of these four factors when it comes to Greensboro-Orlando is #1. Orlando is such a massive tourist destinatino that huge numbers of people have to be driving or using alternate airports. Frontier may well (or may not) get enough people to pick them over alternate means of getting to Orlando. But it's a far, far bigger pool than 35 people / day.

Shhhhh don't ask questions! I'm just happy GSO is seeing more service!

I also agree that GSO-MCO will do well.

And for purely selfish reasons, I'd love to see a MKE-GSO. Could be nice doing DEN-MKE-GSO rather than US (DEN-CLT-GSO or DEN-CLT-RDU).

I also agree that GSO-MCO will do well.

And for purely selfish reasons, I'd love to see a MKE-GSO. Could be nice doing DEN-MKE-GSO rather than US (DEN-CLT-GSO or DEN-CLT-RDU).

I don't think we'll get MKE-GSO. Midwest tried MKE-RDU twice and Frontier tried it once and it never seemed to work. Even DL who has turned RDU into somewhat of a focus city hasn't made a go at RDU-MKE. If RDU can't get it, I doubt GSO will :(

Agreed - just a pipe-dream on my part. From the area, family still there. Just did CAK-CLT-RDU on USAir after CAK on Frontier. The 'other' family's in that area.

OT -- Sad to see 9th Street Bakery is now Elmo's and hearing mixed things about renovations @ the Umstead. Even the tiny Eno is welcome waters after another summer of Denver drought!

I don't think we'll get MKE-GSO. Midwest tried MKE-RDU twice and Frontier tried it once and it never seemed to work. Even DL who has turned RDU into somewhat of a focus city hasn't made a go at RDU-MKE. If RDU can't get it, I doubt GSO will :(

Well an hour ago I stepped off the first ever GSO-MCO flight! Hopefully it's good news for Frontier as there were only four empty seats on the flight. We were delayed about 20 minutes due to long lines at check-in. The station personel (a mix of contract employees and F9 people from DEN who'd come in to set the place up) were rather confused. The gate didn't even have boarding pass paper yet but everyone was in a great mood and much fun was had. I'll do a mini-TR for the forum when I get home!

Well an hour ago I stepped off the first ever GSO-MCO flight! Hopefully it's good news for Frontier as there were only four empty seats on the flight. We were delayed about 20 minutes due to long lines at check-in. The station personel (a mix of contract employees and F9 people from DEN who'd come in to set the place up) were rather confused. The gate didn't even have boarding pass paper yet but everyone was in a great mood and much fun was had. I'll do a mini-TR for the forum when I get home!

Looking forward to it. Why they didn't have more TA? They need more help. Because they do not have enough ticket agent. I wasn't aware of F9 will hired more ticket agent. It's extremely importance for those customer who want to check-in or checked bag. They don't want to wait for any much longer. It will missed the flight. They have to training more and improvement the customer service.

Well an hour ago I stepped off the first ever GSO-MCO flight! Hopefully it's good news for Frontier as there were only four empty seats on the flight. We were delayed about 20 minutes due to long lines at check-in. The station personel (a mix of contract employees and F9 people from DEN who'd come in to set the place up) were rather confused. The gate didn't even have boarding pass paper yet but everyone was in a great mood and much fun was had. I'll do a mini-TR for the forum when I get home!

Great to hear! Which gate do they use at GSO...any mention of more frequency or additional destinations??

Great to hear! Which gate do they use at GSO...any mention of more frequency or additional destinations??

They use Gate 49, an ex-Delta gate from the days when DL was in the US/AA Concourse. I asked about DEN but no one knew about it. Here's an article from our local news station I'm briefly mentioned in. There's apparently video of me too but you have to sign is a Time Warner Cable user and I am not one to see it:

http://triad.news14.com/content/business/671458/frontier-airlines-begins-service-from-pti-to-orlando

Here's an article from our local news station I'm briefly mentioned in. There's apparently video of me too but you have to sign is a Time Warner Cable user and I am not one to see it:

Is this it? There's someone who appears to be saying some of the things you said:

http://myfox8.com/2012/11/17/new-airline-takes-off-from-greensboro-to-orlando/

Is this it? There's someone who appears to be saying some of the things you said:

http://myfox8.com/2012/11/17/new-airline-takes-off-from-greensboro-to-orlando/

Sadly no, I wasn't interviewed by FOX :(

With Frontier considering MCO a focus city, is there any likelihood for service to Augusta GA (AGS) with a possible 1x daily or semi weekly to MCO? It's a decent market with mid-upper income HH and known for Augusta National Golf Club. It's over 2 hours of a drive to ATL and GSP, and US and DL fares at AGS to cities tend to be high.

The market is too small for Southwest or JetBlue, but maybe it fits in better with Frontier's strategy which doesn't need that many departures.

It's a short-haul distance to MCO, but not within 5 hours of drive, which can make it an ideal flight even if it didn't fill with high loads all the time. Frontier could sell connection itineries via MCO which would help as well.

Frontier's MCO routes tend to be longer stage length likely as not to be competing against the drive, however, as Frontier grows MCO as it's own niche, it could utilize MCO for connection flights as well. Thoughts?

With Frontier considering MCO a focus city, is there any likelihood for service to Augusta GA (AGS) with a possible 1x daily or semi weekly to MCO? It's a decent market with mid-upper income HH and known for Augusta National Golf Club. It's over 2 hours of a drive to ATL and GSP, and US and DL fares at AGS to cities tend to be high.

The market is too small for Southwest or JetBlue, but maybe it fits in better with Frontier's strategy which doesn't need that many departures.

It's a short-haul distance to MCO, but not within 5 hours of drive, which can make it an ideal flight even if it didn't fill with high loads all the time. Frontier could sell connection itineries via MCO which would help as well.

Frontier's MCO routes tend to be longer stage length likely as not to be competing against the drive, however, as Frontier grows MCO as it's own niche, it could utilize MCO for connection flights as well. Thoughts?

I think AGS is a good idea, and even SAV.

Equally, I wouldn't be unhappy if they dropped the overly competitive DEN-ATL and offered 2 or 3 weekly DEN-AGS and/or DEN-SAV.

Mostly, I'm wondering if they will ever add onward destinations at MCO - to PUJ say - but I guess that would depend on Apple Vacations.

Once the fleet stabilises, I think they have a lot of choices.

Equally, I wouldn't be unhappy if they dropped the overly competitive DEN-ATL and offered 2 or 3 weekly DEN-AGS and/or DEN-SAV.I think dropping ATL would be a horrible strategic mistake. If you drop too many airports needed by business travelers, you can kiss your Classic Plus fare buyers good bye, because it just won't be worth it to fly F9 regularly anymore.

If ATL were to go by the wayside, I for one wouldn't use AGS as a replacement. Sheer craziness for the business traveler.

I think dropping ATL would be a horrible strategic mistake. If you drop too many airports needed by business travelers, you can kiss your Classic Plus fare buyers good bye, because it just won't be worth it to fly F9 regularly anymore.

If ATL were to go by the wayside, I for one wouldn't use AGS as a replacement. Sheer craziness for the business traveler.

I x daily is scarcely ideal for the business traveller, either.

Frontier is a leisure airline that some business travellers sometimes use.

As stated by BB, that was the essential difference between Midwest and Frontier.

I x daily is scarcely ideal for the business traveller, either.You are right. But, at least the flight is at Hartsfield where Marta is. The last thing I would want as a Business Traveler is 1x to AGS where you'd have to rent a car just for the pleasure of driving 2+ hours to ATL.
Frontier is a leisure airline that some business travelers sometimes use.Maybe outside of Denver they are. But, at DEN I'd argue that biz travelers make up a pretty large mix of their travel base which is important to keeping their fare yield as high as possible.

You are right. But, at least the flight is at Hartsfield where Marta is. The last thing I would want as a Business Traveler is 1x to AGS where you'd have to rent a car just for the pleasure of driving 2+ hours to ATL.

DEN-ATL is a very well-serviced route, there are many choices and there are horror stories of some of the winter loads on, say, Airtran. It applies to DEN-PHL as well, which was great for Frontier in summer - miserable in winter.

Southwest was profitable for many years without ATL and JetBlue still is. That said, I don't know that Frontier has any plans to drop ATL, but I wouldn't be at all unhappy if it did. I don't see the point of flying where everyone else does, when there are other under-served markets that may - "may" - do better.

Even leisure routes - few people gave tuppence for Frontier's TTN-MCO, but, so far, it's been gang-busters. I don't know if the rest of Florida can live up to it, but it is off to a rollicking start.

Maybe outside of Denver they are. But, at DEN I'd argue that biz travelers make up a pretty large mix of their travel base which is important to keeping their fare yield as high as possible.

Sure, as I said. But mostly they are business travellers who understand, and fit in with, Frontier and its schedules. When I first found Frontier in 1998, my employer was paying - I could have flown first, I could have flown non-stop BOS-LAX, but I purposely chose Frontier.

And there are also those on a very tight budget - Frontier is trumpeting it's sub-$50 fares.

So it is a pleasure (relief?) to me to see Frontier embracing it's core market again. It's the first thing we are taught in my business, the core market is crucial - anything else is gravy.