United MileagePlus (Consolidated) - UACO July consolidated traffic data

Other Flyertalkers are much better at interpreting (and disputing) the traffic data, so I will leave it to the rest of you to make what you will of the data. I saw another article that suggested capacity cuts in all of the major airlines compared to last year, but still it appeared that UACO was lagging behind its competitors for this past July.

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/united-continental-consolidated-july-traffic-capacity-load-factor-decline-20120808-00792

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Continental Airlines reported July on-time performance of 64.1 percent, down 10.2 percentage points, and the airline flight-completion factor edged down 0.6 percentage points to 97.9 percent.

What a joke

IMO, this is the key quote:

For July 2012, consolidated passenger revenue per ASM or PRASM, is estimated to have remained flat compared to last year.

Unit revenue remained flat year over year. While bargain-hunters may applaud this, it's a sign that UA contnues to experience difficulty in pushing revenues higher. Perhaps because those willing to pay are looking to other airlines? AA increased its unit revenue by an industry-leading 4.7% in July.

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Continental Airlines reported July on-time performance of 64.1 percent, down 10.2 percentage points, and the airline flight-completion factor edged down 0.6 percentage points to 97.9 percent.

What a joke

So this is saying that 35% of flights were delayed and 2% were cancelled?

So this is saying that 35% of flights were delayed and 2% were cancelled?

Yes..for comparison, here are some other carriers' numbers:

US: 82% on time; 99.1% completion
DL: 80% on time; 99.5% completion
AS: 89% on time

And July PRASM increase comparisons:

AA: +4.7%
DL: +4.5%
WN: +2.0%
US: +1.0%
UA: Flat

Interesting but not surprised.

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Continental Airlines reported July on-time performance of 64.1 percent, down 10.2 percentage points...

Continental Airlines?

This will not stand for business travelers. Flip a coin to see if you show up on time...

For July 2012, consolidated passenger revenue per ASM or PRASM, is estimated to have remained flat compared to last year.

there's your high-yield exodus.

Continental Airlines reported July on-time performance of 64.1 percent, down 10.2 percentage points, and the airline flight-completion factor edged down 0.6 percentage points to 97.9 percent.
And that's just pathetic.

And July PRASM increase comparisons:

AA: +4.7%
DL: +4.5%
WN: +2.0%
US: +1.0%
UA: Flat


Holy moly. I'm starting to get nervous about my mileage balance. If they can't turn this around, this is gonna get ugly.

Interesting but not surprised.

At least based on my flights in July, I was surprised the ontime rate was so high!

Holy moly. I'm starting to get nervous about my mileage balance. If they can't turn this around, this is gonna get ugly.

I cannot see how they can turn it around. They have created so much bad will with UA Elites and I am doing the unthinkable and flying other airlines. Their CSR's do not have the skills or equipment to be efficient, boarding processes are a scrum, customers continually have to monitor their accounts for schedule changes, flights are over-priced, the list goes on.....

To make matters worse, most Hawaii - West Coast flights later this year become PMCO planes and PMCO crews and the times I have flown them so far the service and equipment has been underwhelming. There will be no aloha on COdbaUA later this year....you can bet on that....:td:

Continental Airlines reported July on-time performance of 64.1 percent, down 10.2 percentage points, and the airline flight-completion factor edged down 0.6 percentage points to 97.9 percent.

What a joke

That is a truly atrocious number! You had a greater than 1 in 3 chance of being delayed in July. Has an on-time percentage for any carrier ever been this low?

Can we please all wait for a CO apologist to explain to us - in terms we can UNDERSTAND - why this ISN'T bad??

I just don't want my posts to be deleted in advance of an apologist's explanation.


Thank you!!

Dave

Continental Airlines?

This will not stand for business travelers. Flip a coin to see if you show up on time...

Freudian slip?

Can we please all wait for a CO apologist to explain to us - in terms we can UNDERSTAND - why this ISN'T bad??

I just don't want my posts to be deleted in advance of an apologist's explanation.


Thank you!!

Dave

You beat me to it! i can't wait to see how they can spin this in Jeffy's favor....

You beat me to it! i can't wait to see how they can spin this in Jeffy's favor....

Merger related "growing pains" seems to be their go-to line.

And by growing pains they must mean me booking my next trip on WN. Saved myself 40% or ~$300. Thanks for the discount Jeffy!!!

Can we please all wait for a CO apologist to explain to us - in terms we can UNDERSTAND - why this ISN'T bad??



<apologist>
There was weather which impacted operations at SFO, ORD, IAD and EWR only during the bank times of UA flights.

DEN was not impacted (even if it is an unbelievably hot summer) as it offers a majority of Express flights, and they don't count in the UA numbers.
</apologist>

Yes..for comparison, here are some other carriers' numbers:

US: 82% on time; 99.1% completion
DL: 80% on time; 99.5% completion
AS: 89% on time


Interesting. Those numbers make it seem less terrible than it appears on FT. Every morning, I wake up, and read a nightmare about a cancelled flight. And, 2% might be high, but that means 98% are completed. Honestly, 2% cancel rate and 35% delay rate (including all types of delays, from 45 minutes to many hours) seems not that much worse than normal. Yes, it's worse. And, unacceptable. But, I can't say my pre 3/3 experience has been a lot better than these numbers. And, I've always taken it with a grain of salt, just part of the travel experience.

[QUOTE=jchiguy1;19083745]You beat me to it! i can't wait to see how they can spin this in Jeffy's favor....

If you read my posts you'll see I'm anything but a Jeffy apologist but really, if the performance is 10% worse than normal, is it that much of a big deal? Sure, in aggregate, from a business perspective, it's horrible. But, personally, if my odds of a delay are 10% higher now than before, that doesn't seem like the end of the world. Air travel has always been a nightmare. When I leave for a trip, I'm prepared for all sorts of contingencies, so adding a bit more pain to an already painful experience doesn't tip the scales that much for me.

But, personally, if my odds of a delay are 10% higher now than before, that doesn't seem like the end of the world.

Before you had a 25.7% chance of a delay, now you have a 35.9% chance of a delay.

Your odds of a delay are 40% higher now than before.

Before you had a 25.7% chance of a delay, now you have a 35.9% chance of a delay.

Your odds of a delay are 40% higher now than before.

I'd be interested in knowing the chance of a delay that's > 1 hour and the chance of a delay that's > 2 hours.

I don't care about delays that are < 1 hour because I build that into every trip I take anyway.

... if the performance is 10% worse than normal, is it that much of a big deal? Sure, in aggregate, from a business perspective, it's horrible. But, personally, if my odds of a delay are 10% higher now than before, that doesn't seem like the end of the world. Air travel has always been a nightmare.

While I agree that air travel has long been a nightmare, if you fly from small airports like I do, and therefore have to take connecting flights to get from A to C, you have increased your odds of a problem much more than 10%. You face that cancellation or missed connection risk twice each direction for each trip. Couple that with reduced numbers of flights and increased loads, and, yes, 10% degradation in performance is a big problem.

Before you had a 25.7% chance of a delay, now you have a 35.9% chance of a delay.

Your odds of a delay are 40% higher now than before.

Agreed. That's the same logic lowlifes use when they say it's only a 3% tax increase from 30 to 33%. No it's not. It's a 10% tax increase. Boy I hate how people spin stuff to misinfom people.

But I digress.

United really needs to quit dragging their feet. It's put up or shut up time this quarter for mgmt.

Couple that with reduced numbers of flights and increased loads, and, yes, 10% degradation in performance is a big problem.
Not just that, couple it with an airline that doesn't understand the concept of holding back F space for last-minute purchases/misconnects, and a culture and SHARES that prevents efficient handling of misconnects, then you have a real cluster.

Old United, a 2 hour delay on your SYD-SFO->IAD, in paid F, they'd just pop you on a different flight in F, now they'll stick you in a middle in E- if you can convince them that you actually ought to not sit around SFO for 2 days.

That is a truly atrocious number! You had a greater than 1 in 3 chance of being delayed in July. Has an on-time percentage for any carrier ever been this low?

double the chance of being delayed if you have a connecting flight

[QUOTE=ClipperDelta;19082609]


Interesting. Those numbers make it seem less terrible than it appears on FT. Every morning, I wake up, and read a nightmare about a cancelled flight. And, 2% might be high, but that means 98% are completed.

double it to 4% if you have a connecting flight...

To make matters worse, most Hawaii - West Coast flights later this year become PMCO planes and PMCO crews and the times I have flown them so far the service and equipment has been underwhelming. There will be no aloha on COdbaUA later this year....you can bet on that....:td:

Positively tragic :( :( :(

While I agree that air travel has long been a nightmare, if you fly from small airports like I do, and therefore have to take connecting flights to get from A to C, you have increased your odds of a problem much more than 10%. You face that cancellation or missed connection risk twice each direction for each trip. Couple that with reduced numbers of flights and increased loads, and, yes, 10% degradation in performance is a big problem.

True. I'm a "captive hub flyer" out of SFO, so my equation is based on mainly direct flights. If I were willing to switch, I'd be with AA already, without a doubt.

However, small airports are mainly outsourced, and in my 10 years or so with UA, nearly every outsourced flight I've ever taken has been delayed. I'd also be curious if performance of the outsourced flights has dropped as badly as UA mainline.

My policy has always been to assume a mess with an itinerary that involves an outsourced small craft. I'd never fly those and expect to be on time.

If you read my posts you'll see I'm anything but a Jeffy apologist but really, if the performance is 10% worse than normal, is it that much of a big deal? Sure, in aggregate, from a business perspective, it's horrible. But, personally, if my odds of a delay are 10% higher now than before, that doesn't seem like the end of the world. Air travel has always been a nightmare. When I leave for a trip, I'm prepared for all sorts of contingencies, so adding a bit more pain to an already painful experience doesn't tip the scales that much for me.


I'm not so much alarmed or upset by those figures as I am by the flat PRASM numbers in a peak travel month like July. They seem to indicate that high revenue flyers may indeed be deserting United. We'll see if this is just a blip in the radar or evidence of a larger trend as more info comes in over time.

A few points of interest/comments:

- Until the full financials for the month are released, it is going to be hard to pinpoint the areas that are the most problematic.

- If UA says that PRASM is effectively flat YOY, I assume it will be slightly negative.

- while these PRASM numbers a horrific, I am not so sure that they are nearly indicative enough of just how much high yielding traffic has left since July numbers are buffeted by higher overall fares and lower business travel volume. I suspect that Sep/Oct/Nov PRASM will be catastrophic for UA if July's numbers look like this.

- Based on what has been published, it looks like DL may be absorbing a fair number of high value UA fliers, as well albeit without as much fanfare.

I can't wait for the full monthly financials to see exact areas of underperformance.

I'm not so much alarmed or upset by those figures as I am by the flat PRASM numbers in a peak travel month like July. They seem to indicate that high revenue flyers may indeed be deserting United. We'll see if this is just a blip in the radar or evidence of a larger trend as more info comes in over time.

Reference the thread about the mass exodus of top tier elites from UA to AA this summer and the thread about the amount of money people just spent on tickets at other airlines. Two big threads about a mass exodus and now the numbers are starting to show that some people who post on FT might actually be telling the truth :) Joking aside...people can write whatever they want on the boards about leaving for another airline or sending $10K worth of tickets to AA or DL but only the numbers can prove them right. The numbers seem to be leaning that way right now.

-RM

Reference the thread about the mass exodus of top tier elites from UA to AA this summer and the thread about the amount of money people just spent on tickets at other airlines. Two big threads about a mass exodus and now the numbers are starting to show that some people who post on FT might actually be telling the truth :) Joking aside...people can write whatever they want on the boards about leaving for another airline or sending $10K worth of tickets to AA or DL but only the numbers can prove them right. The numbers seem to be leaning that way right now.

-RM

Believe me I follow all those threads with great interest. United has been a huge part of my life and I feel that I have a big stake (2.4 million lifetime miles and 2.3 million miles in my account) in its success or failure. I do not wish my hometown airline ill however I wish the HouCrew would go away and leave my beloved United alone.

Reference the thread about the mass exodus of top tier elites from UA to AA this summer and the thread about the amount of money people just spent on tickets at other airlines. Two big threads about a mass exodus and now the numbers are starting to show that some people who post on FT might actually be telling the truth :) Joking aside...people can write whatever they want on the boards about leaving for another airline or sending $10K worth of tickets to AA or DL but only the numbers can prove them right. The numbers seem to be leaning that way right now.

-RM

It's definitely interesting that the naysayers seem to have nothing to "add" to these facts to tell us how Smisek is doing a great job and that a 64% on-time rate AFTER they claimed to have "figured out the problem" in June is great

Does the comparable PRASM number adjust for things such as adding or removing E+?

All else equal:
More E+ = Less Available Seats
Less Available Seats = Lower Denominator
Lower Denominator = Higher PRASM

True. I'm a "captive hub flyer" out of SFO, so my equation is based on mainly direct flights. If I were willing to switch, I'd be with AA already, without a doubt.


Are your sure you're such a captive? I don't want to violate rules by repeating my post citing the advantages and compensating features of AA out of SFO, in this AA forum thread you started:

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/american-aadvantage/1372052-upgrade-ba-using-aadvantage-miles.html

But I do wonder whether those compensating AA features really might make up for the disadvantages of UA, not least the lousy UA IRROPS, frequent delays, lousy customer service and SHARES.

It's definitely interesting that the naysayers seem to have nothing to "add" to these facts to tell us how Smisek is doing a great job and that a 64% on-time rate AFTER they claimed to have "figured out the problem" in June is great

Similar to TODs no longer being denied after the avalanche of evidence showing they do exist

Does the comparable PRASM number adjust for things such as adding or removing E+?

All else equal:
More E+ = Less Available Seats
Less Available Seats = Lower Denominator
Lower Denominator = Higher PRASM

That's what should be happening, but the exact opposite is happening...think what the numbers would look like if they hadn't been ripping out Y seats on the PMCO planes...

As a shareholder when do you start noticing the trend and start asking for new leadership at UA?

As a shareholder when do you start noticing the trend and start asking for new leadership at UA?
At least a few more quarters. :( Nothing will happen until a consistent trend of underperformance is established.

Believe me I follow all those threads with great interest. United has been a huge part of my life and I feel that I have a big stake (2.4 million lifetime miles and 2.3 million miles in my account) in its success or failure. I do not wish my hometown airline ill however I wish the HouCrew would go away and leave my beloved United alone.

Amen.

It's extremely scary if the BOD doesn't realize and reverse the mistake in giving the helm of a Major League Airline to a Little League team, then we will all be in some trouble.

But when the Judicial, Legislative, and Executive branches are all ran by the same guy, I doubt anything will change soon.

What were DL's numbers compared to the rest of the industry in the first 3-4 quarters after the NW acquisition? Or same for US/America West? Can anyone provide a link? These are terrible on their face, but I'd like to compare to the past few largeish mergers.

What were DL's numbers compared to the rest of the industry in the first 3-4 quarters after the NW acquisition?

The Delta financial transaction was completed 10/28/2008, and the res/flight systems combined 1/31/2010.

DOT Air Travel Consumer Reports have plenty of comparison data: on-time, IDB, mishandled bag rates, etc.

http://airconsumer.ost.dot.gov/reports/atcr10.htm

[QUOTE=Brasila;19083640]I cannot see how they can turn it around. They have created so much bad will with UA Elites and I am doing the unthinkable and flying other airlines. Their CSR's do not have the skills or equipment to be efficient, boarding processes are a scrum, customers continually have to monitor their accounts for schedule changes, flights are over-priced, the list goes on.....



+1 Once you crap your nest(UA), it's hard to ever get it clean again!

You have to look at this for how bad it is:

1. Your largest competitor (DL) had a 4% jump in PRASM while you are flat.

2. The bankrupt competitor that declared war on you by targeting your elites posted the largest jump in PRASM...while they are struggling through bankruptcy. In the past three months I have personally moved over $20K from UA to AA...including three TATL flights up front.

3. An airline that allegedly has a worse reputation historically than your (US) even posted a boost in PRASM.

If this does not get the attention of SMI/J and his cronies on Wacker Drive I do not know what will. This is just a disaster for UA. It's a shame they brought it on themselves.

I'm not so much alarmed or upset by those figures as I am by the flat PRASM numbers in a peak travel month like July. They seem to indicate that high revenue flyers may indeed be deserting United. We'll see if this is just a blip in the radar or evidence of a larger trend as more info comes in over time.

Flat PRASM makes me very happy! That's the only metric that will force Smisek to abandon his anti-customer crusade.

Believe me I follow all those threads with great interest. United has been a huge part of my life and I feel that I have a big stake (2.4 million lifetime miles and 2.3 million miles in my account) in its success or failure. I do not wish my hometown airline ill however I wish the HouCrew would go away and leave my beloved United alone.

+1

Are your sure you're such a captive? I don't want to violate rules by repeating my post citing the advantages and compensating features of AA out of SFO, in this AA forum thread you started:

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/american-aadvantage/1372052-upgrade-ba-using-aadvantage-miles.html

But I do wonder whether those compensating AA features really might make up for the disadvantages of UA, not least the lousy UA IRROPS, frequent delays, lousy customer service and SHARES.

I have studied a lot of compensating ideas in favor of AA out of SFO. For me, I've concluded that I am captive because I simply don't want to change planes to get anywhere from here. In my calculations, the downside of an unnecessary connection ... almost all the time ... has a heavy weight.

I respect that others put different weights on each variable in the equation.

I have studied a lot of compensating ideas in favor of AA out of SFO. For me, I've concluded that I am captive because I simply don't want to change planes to get anywhere from here. In my calculations, the downside of an unnecessary connection ... almost all the time ... has a heavy weight.

I respect that others put different weights on each variable in the equation.

Have you determined at what point things tilt away from United for you? If ontime performance drops to 50% will that make you reconsider? Or are you willing to stay with United no matter what since you can fly nonstop? Just curious.

I'm a huge fan of the best schedule winning out. Its why I fly WN frequently if I have to go up and down the west coast.

Lastly, have you thought about getting 50k status on 2 carriers? Seems to me like top tier means less on United than in the past. I don't have enough experience with AA to know if EXP is far superior to PLT. But its another thing to consider.

Reference the thread about the mass exodus of top tier elites from UA to AA this summer and the thread about the amount of money people just spent on tickets at other airlines. Two big threads about a mass exodus and now the numbers are starting to show that some people who post on FT might actually be telling the truth :) Joking aside...people can write whatever they want on the boards about leaving for another airline or sending $10K worth of tickets to AA or DL but only the numbers can prove them right. The numbers seem to be leaning that way right now.

-RM



Yes, if the trend continues, "the chickens will continue to come home to roost" as the saying goes.

Smisek's policies are unusual and they took most of us by surprise (trashing elites and demoting the frequent flier program). This caused many elites to abandon UA after many years of loyalty.

There is no question that AA's July traffic increased as a result of the UA status match and AA's charming away customers that normally would have been UA passengers.

AA should thank Smisek profusely for his poor decisions. I suspect AA is very thankful.
-

AA should thank Smisek profusely for his poor decisions. I suspect AA is very thankful.
-

To take it a step further - AA is beyond fortuitous that they're going through BK just at the time when a key competitor is doing everything in its power to actively cast off its most profitable and loyal customers. Voila! Instant bump to its PRASM growth. They're probably thanking their lucky stars.

Horton should send $misek weekly Delightful Deliveries.

If this is a trend that continues, what are the chances -- really -- that UA will restore some features of the loyalty program? Or at least offer some promotions/incentives to elites in the coming months? I tend to think the chances of the former are very, very slim unless there is a change in management. A big chunk of the problem is SHARES - I've watched gate agents struggle with it just to get through the boarding process, which I'm sure was the real reason behind a few of my flight delays recently. And when there's IRROPS, forget it. If there's one single decision that now stands out as fatal, the decision to make SHARES the platform for the new airline would be it. Very difficult to undo it now. Unless they can somehow turn it around (doubtful). And I'm speaking as a pmCO top-tier elite who has had relatively few problems post 3/3, and even a few pleasant surprises along the way as well.

The degradation of the elite program was surely meant to increase shareholder value ... which in the end is all that matters to most executives. Unfortunately for Jeff, customer service and the bottom line are intrinsically linked, for airlines especially.

I would love to be a fly on the wall in the executive suite to hear how these results are being analyzed. Either they recognize that the playbook is falling apart, or they'll just keep it up until they either post a better quarter or two, or they get replaced. Or both. The only question I have is *just* how far up their you-know-whats their heads are. Time will tell.

Have you determined at what point things tilt away from United for you? If ontime performance drops to 50% will that make you reconsider? Or are you willing to stay with United no matter what since you can fly nonstop? Just curious.

I'm a huge fan of the best schedule winning out. Its why I fly WN frequently if I have to go up and down the west coast.

Lastly, have you thought about getting 50k status on 2 carriers? Seems to me like top tier means less on United than in the past. I don't have enough experience with AA to know if EXP is far superior to PLT. But its another thing to consider.

That's a really good question. Soon, I need to decide if I take AA's Exp offer or stick with UA to re-qualify for 1K. I fly enough to do one, but not both.

I'm likely going to stick with UA this year and see what my experience is. If I don't face any of the nightmares and I get upgrades when I should, then I will deal with the general misery and lack of reliability. If I end up facing the nightmares that others are posting here or I can't get upgraded anywhere on GPUs, then I'm definitely done. I've given up on domestic upgrades but I've still got a pile of GPUs and those are important to me.

So, the tipping point is most likely going to be determined by what I actually experience the rest of this year, as distinct from the horrors that I read about on here every day.

And, this summer, I've enjoyed staying home, very little travel. I plan to ramp it up again in Fall/Winter, hoping that the "Summer of Hell" will be finished.

I know it's a 50% delay rate, but what I don't know is how many of those delays are severe.

I'm with you on WN for short hop west coast. That's an easy choice.

But, for most long-haul domestic or international, UA does have a great schedule.

Gold status on two airlines is an interesting idea. If we conclude that GPUs are in fact worthless, then that would be a valid strategy. If GPUs can still be used, then, they really are quite valuable.

tend to think the chances of the former are very, very slim unless there is a change in management. A big chunk of the problem is SHARES - I've watched gate agents struggle with it just to get through the boarding process, which I'm sure was the real reason behind a few of my flight delays recently. And when there's IRROPS, forget it. If there's one single decision that now stands out as fatal, the decision to make SHARES the platform for the new airline would be it.

SHARES is certainly a huge part of their tangible problems with servicing customers efficiently.

Slightly less tangible is the attitude of "all elites are equal" attitude that means 1K=Gold=Silver=CC holders. For a lot of business travelers, the ability to get through the airport fast is important, so they aren't wasting time (see the thread on the security line disaster @ SFO)...

I wish there was a way to only punish the management of UA, but alas I do not see one without the employees of UA being punished as well. While there may be some bad apples out there, I have to believe a lot of the problem is that their morale is shot, they are given horrible tools and no support. I've been flying UA a long time (not as long as many on here) and it saddens me to see the state of things. I now enjoy my flights on AA and wish UA employees the best, I just hope that the BOD sees the problems before it is to late. Otherwise it is the employees who will pay(I say this as a former Circuit City employee whose senior management team sucked)