US Airways Dividend Miles - Coming up on T-3 ... time to split?

Question about splitting PNR for upgrade.

First, a disclaimer: I know that

I am not entitled to anything
The web site seat map is not a definitive indicator of seat availability
US has the right to withhold F seats for sale.


Okay, with that out of the way...

Three passengers on one PNR, CP+S+S, looking for upgrades on a TC

At T-7 (CP window), dummy booking suggests still 7 F seats, but apparently none released for upgrade. Typical for TC.

Between T-7 and T-4 (last night, P window): One of the F seats disappears, probably a purchase, since exit rows and preferred seats in Y are not disturbed.

At T-4: Not upgraded. Apparent F seats down from 6 to 4, likely due to upgrades since (a) there were still 6 F's a few hours before the upgrade spin; and (b) a couple of occupants of prime Y seats had apparently left the proverbial building.

My interpretation: US opened up 2 seats at T-4. Maybe they went to CPs with higher mileage than me. Maybe they went to CPs with lower mileage than me, or to Ps. Doesn't matter. I wanted 3 and I am thinking they only opened up 2. I suppose it is also possible that they opened up 3 or 4, but higher rated folks went first, so that by the time it was "my turn," there were no longer 3 available.

So now we are heading into T-3 (G time). Here is what I am thinking:

If they open 3 or 4 of the remaining 4 seats, I should get them (although there is a remote possibility that there is another CP+x+x with higher status than me, in which case I am SOoL).

If they only open 1 or 2, then it will be like last night all over again ... any lower-status CPs plus Ps plus now Gs as well who are traveling as singletons or doubletons will get them first.

So should I split now, and if so, how? CP+S/S or CP/S/S ? Frankly, I do the flight fine on exit aisle, but my S's have gotten used to living high on the hog when I'm in the picture (on the plane) ....

On the other hand, if my logic is right about what has been happening and why, then a release tonight of 3 should make me a 3 for 3 "winner," and a release of 2 would suggest that I could still split tomorrow, before T-2 (S day), and still snag the last 2 (assuming no purchases in between).

Or should I just get back to work?

I think your analysis is sound - it is the same way I would analyze it. But splitting would virtually mean you (or your nominee) is alone in the front. I would probably roll the dice and see what happens tomorrow. But that could mean you all sit together in the back...

Anything additional that you can share?

Route, aircraft, time of day?

Why not call in and ask what your odds? Sometimes you get color, sometimes you don't.

Anything additional that you can share?

Route, aircraft, time of day?

Why not call in and ask what your odds? Sometimes you get color, sometimes you don't.

Did that. They are still holding seats for sale. Will roll dice one more upgrade night ...

It's PHL-LAX, 320, mid-day ....

Ended up doing nothing and eventually things worked out peachily, at least for me.

At T-3 (Gold), no split, no seats, no sign of any seats handed out to anyone, so apparently four seats still open in F ...

At T-2 (Silver), no split, got the three upgrades I was hoping for ...

Obviously, I'm gratified with the particular outcome. More generally, confirms (at least in this case) my tortuous (tortured?) logic against my old predisposition, which was to be a "splitter."

Thanks for the report and glad it worked out for you.