Cathay Pacific Asia Miles - Working out which outward flight forms the return

I've just completed a TPE turnaround on the way to New York and I'm curious if anyone knows how (or even if) it's possible to work out what flight the aircraft that you're inbound on will operate on the way back (all other things being equal). I came in to TPE on a 333 and I was curious whether I would see the same crew on the way back (which has never happened to me). I didn't, although I thought we left TPE back to HKG from the same gate as we arrived at but could easily be wrong, it was an old regional business class setup whereas the outbound from HKG was a long-haul configuration. And from TPE of course flights go on to other places than just HKG. I think I worked it out after the event by looking at the timetable while sitting in the lounge at HKG but I wondered whether there's any more scientific way of knowing?

Well...most FLTs will turn back in about 1 hour. Since CX operates every type of aircraft it has to TPE, it should not be too hard to figure this out by seeing what is the FLT with the same aircraft that turns back in about 1 hour. Some FLTs, however, continues to Japan and Korea or come back from Japan and Korea, so those FLTs will not form the typical HKG-TPE-HKG turn around pattern.

I've just completed a TPE turnaround on the way to New York and I'm curious if anyone knows how (or even if) it's possible to work out what flight the aircraft that you're inbound on will operate on the way back (all other things being equal). I came in to TPE on a 333 and I was curious whether I would see the same crew on the way back (which has never happened to me). I didn't, although I thought we left TPE back to HKG from the same gate as we arrived at but could easily be wrong, it was an old regional business class setup whereas the outbound from HKG was a long-haul configuration. And from TPE of course flights go on to other places than just HKG. I think I worked it out after the event by looking at the timetable while sitting in the lounge at HKG but I wondered whether there's any more scientific way of knowing?

There's no absolutely scientific way of knowing, because if delays or other issues arise CX operations will make an ad hoc call, which you will not be privy to until it happens. For TPE, you can know what is SCHEDULED (barring any last minute issues whereby CX) by simply checking the inbound/outbound flight schedules and lining that up with the inbound/outbound aircraft (772, 343, etc.), and making sure to remember to incorporate flights that are to/from TPE to/from Korea and Japan (the 5th freedom countries CX flies from Taiwan). You can figure out for a normal day what inbound flight becomes what outbound flight. It sounds like this is what you did.

Obviously, this cannot work all the time because if there are delays, tech problems, etc. then CX might make a last-minute change. But in general I think that's the best way to do it.

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My personal preference is to use KA for absolute straight turns, not sure if schedule permits but KA is handled by EVA in Tpe and under every normal circumstances, even the plane is a wet lease from CX, turn around without too much a drama.

I just witnessed on Saturday Cx466 did not turn around to become cx467 due to canceled flight other schedule change or such. Instead it was turn from cx 406 (if memory is correct). If Op wants to have a straight Cx turn (which ease many of possible issues) I will leave plenty of time for error (say 3 hour transit at Tpe), or use one of those go-beyond flight as they seems less prone for cancellation.

Thanks ChrisLi, nice to know that it's more of an art than a science. In fact I'm sure that the two planes were both going on and coming from Japan based on the languages that the announcements were in. And the flight to TPE in economy was better than the flight back to HKG in business because for a short flight the better IFE in the newer plane outweighed the more space in the regional business class on the return and I was lucky that the economy meal/snack was very good.
I agree with leaving a decent interval between flights, so far my trips have run smoothly and the transfer has taken just 5 minutes so that I've also been able to change my return flight to HKG to an earlier one, leaving plenty of time in HKG before my onward flight. But there will no doubt come a time when that margin of safety's needed with a weather delay or something.

TPE is difficult. Some flights are sticky and will do the same turn every day, some flights will swap (particularly the ones that overnight) or ferry back empty. Every other station in the network is pretty easy to figure out though.

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But well that's where the cheap fares are! Also OP can consider KaoHsiung which is less prone for these shuffling.