JetBlue TrueBlue - JetBlue thinking widebodies

Apparently Barger is having some fun in China this week. He has indicated that the company will be considering widebody aircraft to increase their LatAm presence starting around 2015.

Nothing firm, to be sure, but this is still a significant change in direction from the company's previous views.

Link?

I've got nothing in the media yet but FlightGlobal was reporting it on Twitter this morning quoting Barger directly at the IATA annual conference in Beijing.

https://twitter.com/e_russell/status/212170430679760897

I've got nothing in the media yet but FlightGlobal was reporting it on Twitter this morning quoting Barger directly at the IATA annual conference in Beijing.

https://twitter.com/e_russell/status/212170430679760897

Wonder what those would be used for...South America?

Apparently Barger is having some fun in China this week. He has indicated that the company will be considering widebody aircraft to increase their LatAm presence starting around 2015.

Nothing firm, to be sure, but this is still a significant change in direction from the company's previous views.

The JFK 5i terminal is only adding limited gates, would this be enough or would they need to expand this terminal further? Plus wouldn't JetBlue need to acquire additional slots for this? Or are there still slots left at JFK Airport?

A350 are a lot bigger than they use now and I never realized there was such demand for service from NYC to Latin America.

TAM, AA and Delta serve Sao Paulo Brasil for instance which is one of the heavier travelled routes in Latin America. So Im thinking IF JetBlue does this, they will be acquiring the slots from American Airlines.

American Airlines is also the only carrier to Buenos Aires from JFK right now.

Link?

Yes, here some.

http://rbiuk.ceros.com/abdn/iata-day2/page/6

I surely B6 would likely to orders some A330-200IGW aircraft instead of 787 & A350. B6 should considering service to Europe, South America, Middle Eastern, Africa and Hawaii as well. I think the A330-200IGW is a right choice. It would put on weight restrictions. I doubt B6 would consider service to GRU/GIG/EZE/SCL/LIM and few other specific route.

Yes, here some.

http://rbiuk.ceros.com/abdn/iata-day2/page/6

I surely B6 would likely to orders some A330-200IGW aircraft instead of 787 & A350. B6 should considering service to Europe, South America, Middle Eastern, Africa and Hawaii as well. I think the A330-200IGW is a right choice. It would put on weight restrictions. I doubt B6 would consider service to GRU/GIG/EZE/SCL/LIM and few other specific route.

Where would JetBlue get all these slots from? I know JetBlue had a deal to get JFK slots from American so I am assuming those additional slots for Latin America would be from American Airlines.

JetBlue can't grow unless it got slots from other carriers as JFK is slot restricted. It did have a deal with AA for slots, but I don't see other carriers giving up slots.

JetBlue was able to get slots from USAirways at LaGuardia as well as slots from American Airlines at JFK. So while they can probably add a small few number of routes, the expansion won't be large, just a small number of larger planes to certain destinations.

So Im thinking IF JetBlue does this, they will be acquiring the slots from American Airlines.


AA will not be relinquishing any JFK slots to B6 for any service, let alone to South America.

Where would JetBlue get all these slots from? I know JetBlue had a deal to get JFK slots from American so I am assuming those additional slots for Latin America would be from American Airlines.

You are incorrect. Despite the authoritative "I know," you have it backwards. AA and B6 had a temporary slot swap where AA provided B6 with several DCA slots in exchange for several JFK slots that B6 did not need.

AA will not be providing any JFK slots to B6, whether or not US and AA combine.

JetBlue can't grow unless it got slots from other carriers as JFK is slot restricted. It did have a deal with AA for slots, but I don't see other carriers giving up slots.

JFK is slot-constrained between something like 3 pm and 9 pm or 10 pm, but slots outside that window are free for the asking. That's how B6 and DL connection carriers acquired hundreds of slots.

Again, AA did not provide B6 with any JFK slots. You have it backwards. B6 provided JFK slots to AA.

JetBlue was able to get slots from USAirways at LaGuardia as well as slots from American Airlines at JFK. So while they can probably add a small few number of routes, the expansion won't be large, just a small number of larger planes to certain destinations.

No, B6 did not acquire any JFK slots from AA. AA did acquire some JFK slots from B6 on a temporary basis by providing some DCA slots to B6.

The JFK 5i terminal is only adding limited gates, would this be enough or would they need to expand this terminal further? Plus wouldn't JetBlue need to acquire additional slots for this? Or are there still slots left at JFK Airport?

As others have said, there should be much less difficulty getting slots outside the evening intl rush.

But they could just shift capacity around, replacing rather than supplementing the A320s on some routes.

Of course, all of this would be really quite far in the future.

I think Barger was just messin' with people. B6 isn't going to order widebodies.

If B6 does order widebodies, and I'm not convinced they actually will, I wouldn't count on TATL/TPAC ops. Africa? The Middle East? Are you kidding?

Latin/South America for sure, and I wouldn't bet against Hawaiian ops. That said, I still have my doubts about B6 taking widebodies in the first place.

I think Barger was just messin' with people. B6 isn't going to order widebodies.

Oh yes, they will. B6 will order it. Perhaps, B6 will likely to orders the 767-400ER or A330-200 aircraft.

Not much surprises me when it comes to airlines, but this I never saw coming!

AA will not be relinquishing any JFK slots to B6 for any service, let alone to South America.



You are incorrect. Despite the authoritative "I know," you have it backwards. AA and B6 had a temporary slot swap where AA provided B6 with several DCA slots in exchange for several JFK slots that B6 did not need.

AA will not be providing any JFK slots to B6, whether or not US and AA combine.



JFK is slot-constrained between something like 3 pm and 9 pm or 10 pm, but slots outside that window are free for the asking. That's how B6 and DL connection carriers acquired hundreds of slots.

Again, AA did not provide B6 with any JFK slots. You have it backwards. B6 provided JFK slots to AA.



No, B6 did not acquire any JFK slots from AA. AA did acquire some JFK slots from B6 on a temporary basis by providing some DCA slots to B6.

So if I want to fund a new startup airline and build my own terminal at T7 at JFK hypothetically speaking assuming BA relinquishes it and moves to T8 with American, I could have all off hours slots and run a full scale airline out of it?

One wonders if there are still neglected routes where one could monetize with another airline. There is so much competition nowadays and new entrants aren't really coming in now, you just see mergers, and expansions of existing airlines.

With JetBlue at T5i, that means more room at T4 with the new expansion as well as carriers pulling out.

The growth at Latin American routes isn't surprising. These are heavily populated and growing regions which have not seen much airline expansion.

You have Buenos Aires, Argentina, Sao Paulo Brasil and other high growth markets in the region with very limited airline service right now to the USA.

Often you will only see 1 or 2 carriers on these routes and competition lacks. In the next few years, the population levels will be sufficient for growth of the route on new aircraft.

So do I believe JetBlue is serious on these markets? Yes I do.

I can not see JetBlue flying outside of North America, Caribbean, Central America and Latin America, but Latin America is indeed doable and likely the furthest JetBlue will do.

JetBlue's initial founder was from Brasil and was able to grow a carrier within Latin America and that airline has seen significant expansion in its local markets. JetBlue will be able to do the larger flights to handle the load back to the USA. I can't say what the actual demand loads will look like but if they are expecting to order A350, apparently they seek to grow this route heavily.

Avianca for instance to Bogota Columbia, has 10 A350's on order.

Airbus A350-900 — 10 10
TBA
First delivery scheduled for 2015.
South American Launch customer. Change to -900

Seems like airlines believe these Latin American routes will require A350 in 2015 and it isn't just JetBlue.

Oh yes, they will. B6 will order it. Perhaps, B6 will likely to orders the 767-400ER or A330-200 aircraft.

Uh-huh. Sure it will.

And WN will order A380s. Mark my words.

Uh-huh. Sure it will.

And WN will order A380s. Mark my words.

Not going to happen. But Jetblue doing routes to Latin America is very likely and I would say the A350 is likely to get done depending on the economic climate.

Not going to happen. But Jetblue doing routes to Latin America is very likely and I would say the A350 is likely to get done depending on the economic climate.I'd bet on the 787. I think the A350 is too big for what they're going after.

So if I want to fund a new startup airline and build my own terminal at T7 at JFK hypothetically speaking assuming BA relinquishes it and moves to T8 with American, I could have all off hours slots and run a full scale airline out of it?

I don't think so. I don't think there are slots out there for the taking, certainly not with any notable quantity.

I don't think so. I don't think there are slots out there for the taking, certainly not with any notable quantity.

That directly differs with FWAAA's statement:

"JFK is slot-constrained between something like 3 pm and 9 pm or 10 pm, but slots outside that window are free for the asking. That's how B6 and DL connection carriers acquired hundreds of slots."

You have Buenos Aires, Argentina, Sao Paulo Brasil and other high growth markets in the region with very limited airline service right now to the USA.But if there's a buck to be made on those routes, why are existing carriers in that market not taking it?

Is it because it's operationally inefficient, with the 2 redeyes each way, and the plane sitting on the ground for 12+ hours?

Wouldn't that also be a challenge for JetBlue?

But if there's a buck to be made on those routes, why are existing carriers in that market not taking it?

Is it because it's operationally inefficient, with the 2 redeyes each way, and the plane sitting on the ground for 12+ hours?

Wouldn't that also be a challenge for JetBlue?

Legacies aren't adding to their fleets. They are in replacement mode. The costs for an A350 on these routes would be capital intensive.

JetBlue on the other hand has younger overall fleet and so they will have more cash flow to purchase those capital intensive A350s needed for the route.

Take for example a route where AA exists and Delta nor JetBlue doesn't.

Delta isn't going to spend for new A350s on the route as the larger jets like this would be needed which are more efficient and will allow them to profit. Delta has made used plane purchases/subleasing and a small replacement purchase of older aircraft.

JetBlue however should have the cash flow to purchase those A350s because of their younger more nimble A320 fleet.

So in 2015 JetBlues fleet will have something of a mix of these:

A320, A320 neo, A321, A350.

That is why most likely JetBlue is considering the A350s on Latin America now.

So it's a couple of routes JetBlue uses the widebody on (and it's a given that your opinion is pure non-professional speculation)?

You didn't address the question about this being an inefficient use of an aircraft.

So it's a couple of routes JetBlue uses the widebody on (and it's a given that your opinion is pure non-professional speculation)?

You didn't address the question about this being an inefficient use of an aircraft.

"Is it because it's operationally inefficient, with the 2 redeyes each way, and the plane sitting on the ground for 12+ hours?

Wouldn't that also be a challenge for JetBlue?"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azul_Brazilian_Airlines

Neeleman looks like he was able to acheive a high load factor in Brasil with Azul.

But as for your operational inefficient use question, no because JetBlue can have this plane either provide heavy load routes if such is available or use them to extend the route over to other destinations.

JetBlue already ordered 30 Additional planes to upsize the A320 to A321.

So on certain routes they could run the A350 well operationally efficient.

Perhaps as an example:

Los Angeles California to New York to Sao Paulo Brasil. Remember it won't just be east coast traffic but west coast traffic as well.

"Airbus A320-232 122 22 42 108 150
Airbus A320neo[64] 0 40 TBA Deliveries 2016
Airbus A321-200[64] 0 30 TBA Deliveries 2013
Embraer 190 51 25 8 92 100

Then add A350s to use on Domestic as well as Latin America routes. A350 for JetBlue do indeed make sense for the business model with the addition of new Latin America destinations down the road.

JetBlue doesn't have planes that sit on the runway for 12 hours. An A350 can be utilized efficiently using existing slots as well as a combination of new Latin American destinations.

JetBlue doesn't have planes that sit on the runway for 12 hours. An A350 can be utilized efficiently using existing slots as well as a combination of new Latin American destinations.With all service to deep South Americe (GIG, EZE, GRU, the plane arrives early AM and sits there until the late evening for the redeye.

How will JetBlue use the plane more efficiently? The others haven't figured this out.

Dupe!

With all service to deep South Americe (GIG, EZE, GRU, the plane arrives early AM and sits there until the late evening for the redeye.

How will JetBlue use the plane more efficiently? The others haven't figured this out.

Already said so:

Use a combination of slots (whether offhours or regular slots) to keep constant load on the flight and keep it moving. A350 will be in use on some route at a given time whether it be California, New York City, Latin America or even other high load destinations.

JFK to Cali to Latin America to Cali or JFK and rinse repeat. It wont be on the ground for 12 hours.

Neeleman looks like he was able to acheive a high load factor in Brasil with Azul.

Azul is entirely domestic though. This really doesn't have anything to do with anything.

Already said so:

Use a combination of slots (whether offhours or regular slots) to keep constant load on the flight and keep it moving. A350 will be in use on some route at a given time whether it be California, New York City, Latin America or even other high load destinations.

JFK to Cali to Latin America to Cali or JFK and rinse repeat. It wont be on the ground for 12 hours.

You do realize that this doesn't make sense, right?

B6 pax between JFK and Cali are dispersed across multiple airports; they probably don't have the load to justify an A350 to any one of those destinations. Maybe enough to justify one flight a day at some destinations, but that would lead to mediocre utilization of the aircraft.

And we still haven't tackled the matter of the A350 sitting in EZE for twelve hours. I think the confusion might be that no one wants to take a flight that leaves in the morning from EZE. People like taking that route overnight, for the same reason that people don't take 10am flights from JFK to LHR: it feels like a waste of a day.
And on such a route, I feel like B6 would struggle without a J offering.

I do however entirely expect NK to order A380s and to fit 900 passengers with their new fifteen-abreast seating layout... :p

JFK to Cali to Latin America to Cali or JFK and rinse repeat. It wont be on the ground for 12 hours.Cali, Colombia?

The discussion is about flights to deep SA where it is a red eye in both directions.

How will JetBlue use the plane more efficiently? The others haven't figured this out.

You don't have to keep a plane in the air 18 hours/day to make money with it if the yields are right.

And they may only have to keep it grounded on the southern end, doing a west coast, Florida or Caribbean turn during the day up north to keep the utilization higher. UA does that with their legacy CO 752 fleet which goes to Florida between Europe runs, for example.

Legacies aren't adding to their fleets. They are in replacement mode. The costs for an A350 on these routes would be capital intensive.

In the next 18 months, AA will take delivery of at least 10 77Ws, increasing the 777 fleet by at least 21%.

JetBlue on the other hand has younger overall fleet and so they will have more cash flow to purchase those capital intensive A350s needed for the route.

<snip>

JetBlue however should have the cash flow to purchase those A350s because of their younger more nimble A320 fleet.

This makes no sense at all but does reveal that your knowledge of "cash flow" is limited. DL, UA and AA have cash flow measured in billions of dollars each year. B6? A mere fraction of a billion dollars. And in case you haven't noticed, maintenance expenses at B6 have been climbing like crazy as their "younger, more nimble" A320 fleet has aged.


So in 2015 JetBlues fleet will have something of a mix of these:

A320, A320 neo, A321, A350.

That is why most likely JetBlue is considering the A350s on Latin America now.

Yes, sure. Like I told Scotty, WN will order A380s as well. :D

And in case you haven't noticed, maintenance expenses at B6 have been climbing like crazy as their "younger, more nimble" A320 fleet has aged.

To be fair, having your provider go out of business might have a lot to do with that as well, and having heavy maintenance deferred to this year was an issue.

In the next 18 months, AA will take delivery of at least 10 77Ws, increasing the 777 fleet by at least 21%.



This makes no sense at all but does reveal that your knowledge of "cash flow" is limited. DL, UA and AA have cash flow measured in billions of dollars each year. B6? A mere fraction of a billion dollars. And in case you haven't noticed, maintenance expenses at B6 have been climbing like crazy as their "younger, more nimble" A320 fleet has aged.



Yes, sure. Like I told Scotty, WN will order A380s as well. :D

A350 to Latin America for JetBlue is a possibility. I can't say if it will be done or won't, just saying that they could do it well if they wanted to.

Those American Airlines with 777's will be nice after the USAirways merger. Has AA actually expanded international capacity or are they just increasing load factors and putting on 777's to replace their 767 extended range fleet?

I am presuming that they are going to use the 777's in place of the 767 ER's and at less frequency.

If AA is actually keeping the 767ERs and adding the 777's then it does look like AA would be adding capacity.

Any chance BOS could see the hypothetical B6 widebodies?

Any chance BOS could see the hypothetical B6 widebodies?

Was just using JFK because its their biggest hub and would generate the most traffic.

Who knows what will happen.

I didn't even think JetBlue would use their LGA slots for additional Florida routes which are traditionally seasonal.

I think this widebody idea is so far off that anything can happen....

That being said, the 321's will be on property in about a year. Speculation is that they will be used ex-SJU, since those routes are not too long compared to Transcons.

The wall street analysts are climbing all over each other with the MRO expense increase this year, good thing is it flattens out a bit next year. I think we'll see some of the older birds get sold as new ones come on board.

B6 has a lot going on now, all good and with fuel coming down I thing we'll see some good financials for a while going forward.

Those American Airlines with 777's will be nice after the USAirways merger. Has AA actually expanded international capacity or are they just increasing load factors and putting on 777's to replace their 767 extended range fleet?

I am presuming that they are going to use the 777's in place of the 767 ER's and at less frequency.

If AA is actually keeping the 767ERs and adding the 777's then it does look like AA would be adding capacity.
They are retiring some 76s as part of bringing the 77s in to the fleet.

They are retiring some 76s as part of bringing the 77s in to the fleet.

That is what I figured. So no net capacity expansions for AA.

I can see JetBlue doing A350. We will have to wait and see.

They are retiring some 76s as part of bringing the 77s in to the fleet.

No, that's not correct. AA has announced that the new A321s wll enable AA to retire the 15 762s that primarily fly transcons from JFK. The 10 77Ws represent significant expansion of the AA international widebody fleet.

That is what I figured. So no net capacity expansions for AA.

No, that's not correct. Earlier, you posted, "Legacies aren't adding to their fleets. They are in replacement mode." That was incorrect and is still incorrect. AA is increasing its widebody 777 fleet by 21% over the next 18 months.

A350s at B6? I doubt it.

Uh-huh. Sure it will.

And WN will order A380s. Mark my words.

No way, Jose! They won't order the A380. Sorry!

No, that's not correct. AA has announced that the new A321s wll enable AA to retire the 15 762s that primarily fly transcons from JFK. The 10 77Ws represent significant expansion of the AA international widebody fleet.



No, that's not correct. Earlier, you posted, "Legacies aren't adding to their fleets. They are in replacement mode." That was incorrect and is still incorrect. AA is increasing its widebody 777 fleet by 21% over the next 18 months.

A350s at B6? I doubt it.

A321 has a limited range as opposed to a 767 ER.

Nothing I said was incorrect and the other person was correct. 777's are replacing 767ER's. A321's are for domestic and shorter range international routes.

No, that's not correct. AA has announced that the new A321s wll enable AA to retire the 15 762s that primarily fly transcons from JFK. The 10 77Ws represent significant expansion of the AA international widebody fleet.
Sorry, but this isn't completely true.

As part of the fleet update they are retiring roughly half of the international 76s.

A321 has a limited range as opposed to a 767 ER.

AA's latest statements about its 762 fleet are that those planes will be replaced by A321s. I agree with you about the range issue, but that's what AA said.

Nothing I said was incorrect and the other person was correct. 777's are replacing 767ER's. A321's are for domestic and shorter range international routes.

Nearly everything you've posted about AA is incorrect, including your broad assertion that "Legacies aren't adding to their fleets. They are in replacement mode."

That statement is incorrect, as AA is adding to its 777 fleet by adding 10 new 77Ws in the next 18 months. Those new 77Ws are not replacing any 767ERs, despite your incorrect assertions to the contrary.

Sorry, but this isn't completely true.

As part of the fleet update they are retiring roughly half of the international 76s.

Over the next six years as AA takes delivery of 42 787-9s, yes, about half of the 763s should be retired, but their retirement has nothing to do with the short-term arrival of 10 new 777s.

Earlier, you said, "They are retiring some 76s as part of bringing the 77s in to the fleet."

That isn't correct. AA has not announced the retirement schedule of any 763s. The 762s, used exclusively on domestic flights, primarily transcons, are to be replaced with A321s (according to AA).