Virgin America Elevate - What are my chances of leaving LAS on Mon on standby?

It looks like almost all the flights on Monday 6/11 from LAS-SFO are sold out.

The only remaining seats all in first class. And there aren't that many.

Let's say I miss my 6:30am flight on Monday.

Do you think I'll ever get back home on standby by the end of Monday? Is there a scientific way to estimate my odds?

There's no science to it- so it may not look so good- because VX does not oversell seats they have a pretty good idea of who is going to be on the plane- so it's just a matter of people not showing up, or a few people upgrading to First.

If you have a standby in main cabin, they WILL fly the plane without putting someone in First, and keep you on the ground if indeed Main is sold out.

There's no science to it- so it may not look so good- because VX does not oversell seats they have a pretty good idea of who is going to be on the plane- so it's just a matter of people not showing up, or a few people upgrading to First.

If you have a standby in main cabin, they WILL fly the plane without putting someone in First, and keep you on the ground if indeed Main is sold out.

Hm, so I need to hope for cancellations - given that when I checked yesterday all the flights were sold out. I wonder how many people will do last minute cancels. :(

Flights canceled tomo are likely dependent on tonight's performances at EDC :D

Flights canceled tomo are likely dependent on tonight's performances at EDC :D

hah, thats my story. I'm curious what the surprises will be to recover from yesterday fiasco.

Lols, that may depend upon your luck but I think no way!