Checkpoints and Borders Policy Debate - 20% of passengers flying through Japan to be groped

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As only one data point on the curve, I couldn't care less. I fly through there tomorrow and don't have any concerns.

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That could definitely cut into my SkyClub time as I pass through NRT fairly often.

Now more of the world will understand what it's like to be a female using public transportation in Japan.

http://overheadbin.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/04/22/11332395-japan-to-start-random-body-searches-at-its-international-airports?lite

"Some passengers traveling through international airports in Japan can expect body searches beginning in June, the Kyodo news agency reported, citing transport ministry sources.

Kyodo said about 10 percent of passengers at all airports with international flights would be randomly selected for a body search and baggage check..."

I for one will not set foot in Japan until this maddness stops

I would expect the Japanese security employees to be very proper and do same sex patdowns, hopefully in public rather than behind some sort of privacy wall or curtain.

I would expect the Japanese security employees to be very proper and do same sex patdowns, hopefully in public rather than behind some sort of privacy wall or curtain.

Personally I prefer the operation in some other Asian airports where they are always female.

Whoever is doing will bow and appologize before putting on their latex glove. :D

MSNBC: Japan to start random body searches at its international airports (http://overheadbin.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/04/22/11332395-japan-to-start-random-body-searches-at-its-international-airports?lite)

Odds are 1:10 per flight which translates to 1:5 (20%) for round trips. This is not going to bode well for an airline (e.g. Delta) with a critical hub in Japan.

Those 787s would have helped bypass Japan ...



1. You went out of your way to create a headline that would be sensational.
2. You are making an "assumption" that this will affect travel to and from Japan based on your "fears"



And if you have to go to Japan on business I fail to see how this is going to be bypassed by "not flying Delta" LOL! They didn't say "we are only groping passengers on Delta or at NRT"

Amazing logic here.

Odds are 1:10 per flight which translates to 1:5 (20%) for round trips. This is not going to bode well for an airline (e.g. Delta) with a critical hub in Japan.


To be a bit pedantic, your odds aren't 20%.

If the probability of being searched each trip through Japan is 10%, then the probability of not being searched is 90%.

Assuming both trips are independent, then the probability of not being strip-searched on your trip is actually (90%)^2, or 81% -- so the probability of being strip-searched at least once is 19%, not 20%.

It's not clear to me how this is actually going to be implemented (10% of all passengers? How? Connecting passengers? Originating passengers?), but for an upper bound, suppose they screen both arriving and departing passengers - then the probability of being searched at least once on your connecting flight through Japan increases from 2 incidents to 4 incidents (for connecting to an outside of Japan location) or 6 incidents (if connecting to another international airport within Japan. So as an upper bound, 1-(0.9)^6 = 47% chance that you'll be searched at least once assuming that they're checking both arriving and departing passengers. :)

Odds are 1:10 per flight which translates to 1:5 (20%) for round trips. This is not going to bode well for an airline (e.g. Delta) with a critical hub in Japan.

Your probabilities aren't quite right: it's actually only 19% (1 - 0.9*0.9, or 0.1 + 0.1*0.9) that you will be groped at least once on a round trip. No difference for one round trip, but the probability that you will be groped at least once in 6 round trips is 47% (1 - 0.9**6), not 120% (12*0.1). :D

(Sorry, the scientist in me couldn't resist.)

ETA: (Damn: yankervitch beat me to it, including choosing the exact same number for the crazy limit. I used ** for exponentiation because of the thumbs up issue. The board software obviously isn't designed for arithmetic. ;) )

Moving to the Checkpoints and Borders Policy Debate forum.

-slippahs, DL forum co-mod

Haha! Yeah, as a statistician, seeing that 20% number definitely irked me... then the engineer in me reasoned that 20% was good enough for an order of magnitude assessment.

Glad to see that someone else agreed with my statistician's point of view. ;) (I also found that turning emoticons off fixes the odd thumbs up issue.)

Haha! Yeah, as a statistician, seeing that 20% number definitely irked me... then the engineer in me reasoned that 20% was good enough for an order of magnitude assessment.

I'm sure the uncertainty in that 10% number is more than enough to wipe out the 1% difference after one round trip, but not after 6.

Glad to see that someone else agreed with my statistician's point of view. ;) (I also found that turning emoticons off fixes the odd thumbs up issue.)

But I wanted emoticons in the same post! :mad: :D

Redundant.

I guess search isn't working. Already being discussed here: http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/checkpoints-borders-policy-debate/1338704-20-passengers-flying-through-japan-groped.html

(Sorry, the scientist in me couldn't resist.)

Haha! Yeah, as a statistician, seeing that 20% number definitely irked me... then the engineer in me reasoned that 20% was good enough for an order of magnitude assessment.
Thanks both of you for the stats refresher. :)

Now more of the world will understand what it's like to be a female using public transportation in Japan.

You mean I will be able to yell at the groper, "Get your God-d**n hands off me?"

You mean I will be able to yell at the groper, "Get your God-d**n hands off me?"

More radioactive "hands" perhaps?

The Japanese government probably would have served itself better worrying about nuclear power plants rather than wasting money jumping however high US DHS/TSA tells them would be "best" for them.

This situation will reinforce my preference to avoid DL for flights to mainland Asia and to other parts of the Asia-Pacific region.

You’re all wrong; this is Japanese satire at work mocking the how the American TSAs do it as means to end the insanity given to their citizens when they go through security theater in the US. :D

Remember, even Japanese comedy shows even mocked the TSA: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/11/18/japanese-comedians-take-o_n_785275.html

//end satire