They're pushing COS as a focus city pretty hard, looks like. Should be a solid route if they get it approved. Looks like the service would be daily, bringing the number of F9 daily nonstops Colorado-DCA to four.
F9 would use the aircraft DCA-COS to fly COS-SAN (and the reverse), picking up a bit more traffic and providing the closest thing to a nonstop between the two cities that anyone's ever going to get. Since there's a quick stop in COS, F9 Airbii would have no fuel issues going East-West, yet the trip ends up being only ~30 miles longer than a nonstop flight. Since COS isn't a huge airport, F9 should be able to make a quick turn there, accomplishing DCA-COS-SAN in maybe an hour more than DCA-SAN, if that route actually existed (it doesn't).
Just pulled up Kayak on DCA-XXX-SAN. The quickest flights are all quite expensive a month out...$450+ on a Tuesday except for Frontier ($242 DCA-DEN-SAN). The current shortest flight is United through ORD; 7h03m with a 42m connection from Shuttle America to mainline. Next-shortest is 7h05m through DFW with a 40m connection, M80s all the way. Frontier is 7h14m through DEN, with a layover of just over an hour. US is 7h17m through PHX with an hour layover (and a distance that's 27 miles shorter than DCA-COS-SAN). All flights are either >= $275 or >= 7:45...other than Frontier.
So let's do some back-of-the-envelope math. Being conservative, let's estimate published flight times at identical to DEN for the proposed COS route. My bet is they'll be a little lower gate-to-gate. For example, DEN-LAX is 2:24, while COS-LAX is 2:21.
But since we're talking about same-plane service, it's not unrealistic to estimate a 40 minute turn (heck, it's probably conservative). That shaves about 25 minutes off of total flight time vs. DCA-DEN-SAN, putting the total flight time around 6:50, faster by nearly fifteen minutes compared to the nearest competitor. Probably cheaper too (going to guess $200-$250 for the faux-transcon).
If Frontier secures the COS route and feeds traffic through to SAN to keep its planes full, it should go quite well for them. They're targeting a route that currently has a relatively high fare level (even after they came in with service through DEN) and no competition on either leg. Now the question is whether they can fill planes with enough revenue per seat (note that I didn't use "fares" here because my guess is there will be a fair number of customers on the route opting for something above Economy) to get the route off the ground and keep it there.
But first they have to get the route approved...
IllinoisMan
Mar 19, 12, 1:08 pm
F9 would use the aircraft DCA-COS to fly COS-SAN (and the reverse), picking up a bit more traffic and providing the closest thing to a nonstop between the two cities that anyone's ever going to get. Since there's a quick stop in COS, F9 Airbii would have no fuel issues going East-West, yet the trip ends up being only ~30 miles longer than a nonstop flight. Since COS isn't a huge airport, F9 should be able to make a quick turn there, accomplishing DCA-COS-SAN in maybe an hour more than DCA-SAN, if that route actually existed (it doesn't).
You're forgetting that AS has also applied for non-stop DCA-SAN service, and the general consensus is that they'll probably get it. Out of these bids only four will be selected: AC –YVR, AS-PDX & SAN, B6-SJU & AUS, F9-COS, SY-LAS, VX-SFO x2, and WN-AUS.
knope2001
Mar 19, 12, 1:28 pm
It will be intersting to see who gets what.
For those not familiar, eight new long-haul flights are going to be allowed at DCA. Four will go to incumbant airlines with large slot holdings. Essentially each of them is allowed to pick whatever long haul route out of DCA they want and start to serve it 1x/day, but they have to take the pair of slots to serve it out of their existing holdings.
UA is adding DCA-SFO
AA is adding DCA-LAX
DL is adding DCA-SLC
US has not disclosed where they will use their authority
So that's four. There are four more authoirities which are allotted to airilnes who have small holdings at DCA. They are essentially going to be given a new of slots to start the new route. For the four available authorities, seven airlines are asking for ten slot pairs.
1x DCA-YVR Air Canada
1x DCA-PDX Alaska
1x DCA-SAN-HNL Alaska
1x DCA-COS-SAN Fronteir
1x DCA-SJU JetBlue
1x DCA-AUS JetBlue*
1x DCA-AUS-SAN Southwest
1x DCA-LAS Sun Country
2x DCA-SFO Virgin Atlantic
*JetBlue said that if they only get one pair, they request it be for SJU
A few things are moderatly safe bets in my opinion:
--Only one airline will get Austin, if anybody does
--Nobody will get two pairs
--I doubt Sun Country will get their request because they just got a pair of fabricated slots to keep DCA-LAN-MSP when that pair of slots (originally taken away from Republic) were given given back to Republic by court order. Plus DCA-LAS is already served nonstop by US.
--DCA-SFO is starting with United, so it would not surprise me if Virgin is left out.
My guess is that:
AS gets PDX -- nobody gets more than one flight, and others will cover SAN
B6 gets SJU -- nobody gets more than one flight, and they want SJU first
WN gets AUS -- this way Austin gets served and SAN gets a 1-stop
The 4th pair is a tougher call IMHO:
Virgin would be a new carrier at DCA (the only one) but DCA-SFO is already getting a new United nonstop. And maybe Virgin asked for two flights because they don't want to open a station for one flight.
Frontier's flight to COS would be a first. But the DoT may feel they will benefit from getting the slot pair back for DCA-MCI that was awarded and taken back from Sun Country. If the DoT thinks SAN should be happy with the Southwest 1-stop, then Frontier might lose out. If the DoT thinkgs that SAN will be smarting from not getting a DCA nonstop, they may give SAN two 1-stops (both WN and F9) as a consolation prize.
Air Canada's Vancouver flight would be a first, aand I don't *think* there's any anti-foreign bias for this. But personally I'm skeptical that Washington-Vancouver can support a nonstop year round, and there are limited connections at YVR so I'm not sure DCA-YVR brings the most benefit to DCA.
So it's hard to tell what will happen. If Frontier does get DCA-COS-SAN, I suspect they will be obligated to continue that 1-stop routing even if COS-SAN is not a winner on the A320. But they can always return the slots if need be.
On a separate note, and I'm not sure if anyone has posted this, Frontier is also bidding on a DCA filght to Louisville. This is for one of those slot special slot pair awards at DCA, and they are biddig on the pair currently used for Washington-Jackson MS. Southwest is also bidding for that one, asking to fly DCA-OKC-DAL.
Frontier could already fly DCA-SDF using slots formerly used for curtailed MKE and MCI service. Perhaps if they don't win that bid they'll start DCA-SDF anyway.
knope2001
Mar 19, 12, 1:30 pm
You're forgetting that AS has also applied for non-stop DCA-SAN service, and the general consensus is that they'll probably get it.
But do you think that with seven airlines bidding, AS will get half of the four slot pairs so they can serve both DCA-SAN and DCA-PDX? With other airlines pledging 1-stop DCA-SAN service (Southwest and Frontier) I'm guessing that if only one pair goes to Alaska, it will be for Portland.
runnigel
Mar 19, 12, 1:39 pm
Very slim chance that F9 gets the slot based on the other bids. If they did the proposed schedule is below-
SAN-COS 0720-1032 A320
COS-DCA 1117-1636 A320
DCA-COS 1721-1914 A320
COS-SAN 1959-2112 A320
45 minute turns.
iansltx
Mar 19, 12, 2:02 pm
Thx for everyone chiming in on this. Seems like giving WN AUS and F9 COS would be good for SAN-ites because neither "connecting" airport is delay-prone and thus they'll be getting within one hour of nonstop times, with the ability to use ground-based communications halfway through. What's not to like? Particularly if flight times are such that departure and arrival times to/from SAN are significantly different (does WN have a proposed schedule?).
My (uninformed) bet is that AS gets PDX, and maybe B6 gets SJU. But that's just spitballing. I haven't looked at the slot requests as closely as y'all have...
runnigel
Mar 19, 12, 3:02 pm
My (uninformed) bet is that AS gets PDX, and maybe B6 gets SJU. But that's just spitballing. I haven't looked at the slot requests as closely as y'all have...
My thoughts-
A lot is variable on US. This assuming they don't go to SAN.
AS gets PDX, no questions asked
Virgin gets one SFO, provides UA some competition.
WN gets DCA-AUS-SAN.
I agree with you on this Knope-
A few things are moderatly safe bets in my opinion:
--Only one airline will get Austin, if anybody does
--Nobody will get two pairs
--I doubt Sun Country will get their request because they just got a pair of fabricated slots to keep DCA-LAN-MSP when that pair of slots (originally taken away from Republic) were given given back to Republic by court order. Plus DCA-LAS is already served nonstop by US.
--DCA-SFO is starting with United, so it would not surprise me if Virgin is left out.
Last slot...Does F9 get harmed due to the 3 slots at DEN? or does DOT try to appease SAN by offering 2, 1-stops? Does DOT feel bad about the Lansing slot and the potential CHI-CUN route decision and reward F9 with the COS slot? I doubt the DOT feels regret but it is a thought.
Too many variables to consider, it causes my brain to hurt.
Austin (JetBlue or Southwest) - 5%
Colorado Springs (Frontier) - 2%
Las Vegas (Sun Country) - 2%
Portland, Ore. (Alaska Air) - 33%
San Diego (Alaska Air) - 13%
San Francisco (Virgin America) - 38%
San Juan (JetBlue) - 3%
Vancouver (Air Canada) - 4%
Total Votes: 6522
BlueHorseShoe2000
Mar 20, 12, 9:20 am
But do you think that with seven airlines bidding, AS will get half of the four slot pairs so they can serve both DCA-SAN and DCA-PDX? With other airlines pledging 1-stop DCA-SAN service (Southwest and Frontier) I'm guessing that if only one pair goes to Alaska, it will be for Portland.
Anything is possible. It honestly wouldn't shock me if Alaska got slots for PDX and SAN. Alaska has stated that DCA-PDX is their top priority and I assume they'll get it. As for SAN, it is a large unserved market. Plus, Alaska has pledged to offer one-stop same plane service to HNL. This caters very nicely to the military traffic in SAN and HNL that would find DCA a much better alternative to BWI or IAD nonstops. If Alaska doesn't get slots for DCA-SAN, this could be a route U.S. Airways decides to start.
As for Frontier, DCA-COS is an interesting proposal but doesn't bring nearly as much consumer benefit as the other offerings do. I wonder if Frontier's application will be hurt given that they currently do not utilize their full DCA slot portfolio. An airline could (should?) point out that Frontier has been reducing frequency/capacity in MKE and MCI. This probably dooms Frontier's somewhat strange application for SDF-DCA slots as well.
I'm not sure what the DOT will decide with Southwest and JetBlue. Virgin America should hope for one pair of slots. Air Canada and Sun Country will likely be left empty handed.
knope2001
Mar 20, 12, 11:21 am
As for Frontier, DCA-COS is an interesting proposal but doesn't bring nearly as much consumer benefit as the other offerings do. I wonder if Frontier's application will be hurt given that they currently do not utilize their full DCA slot portfolio. An airline could (should?) point out that Frontier has been reducing frequency/capacity in MKE and MCI. This probably dooms Frontier's somewhat strange application for SDF-DCA slots as well.
One of the peculiar things about the whole situation is that the slot-rich airlines were allowed to pick any beyond-perimeter route they pleased. They had to use their own slot holdings to operated that new flight, but there was really no bidding or approval process. The slot-poor airlines cannot use their existing slots in a similar fashion. Either Frontier is awarded a new pair of slots to fly DCA-COS, or they are prohibited from flying DCA-COS because it is beyond-perimeter. They can't use slots currently utilized for any of their existing markets to add Colorado Springs like UA / DL / AA / US could.
For that reason I think DCA-COS has a chance, though I'm not betting on it.
The Louisville thing does not seem likely to go Frontier's way in my opinion, and that's for the very reason Blue noted...Frontier isn't using all its slots, and Louisville is "within perimeter" so they could start flying DCA-SDF tomorrow if they so chose. Louisville is already served with 3x/day nonstops on US* to DCA, so it's not a new market like DCA-OKC for which Southwest is bidding.
DCA-SDF is a high fare market -- although off-peak excursion fares are currently $200 round trip. if you don't meet those requirements, even advance-purchase business fares are almost $950 round trip. But that alone probably won't push Frontier's bid over the finish line for DCA-SDF.
mke9499
Mar 20, 12, 11:29 am
@flyfrontier is using social media to lobby for support.
We want to offer nonstop service from COS to DCA and NEED YOUR HELP! Click the link to show your support for Frontier. http://bit.ly/FPZD0E
jn in ca
Mar 20, 12, 3:52 pm
Really interesting situation. I have a bit of a different perspective on it. I do not believe Virgin will get 2, and as stated above, it's questionable if they would open a station for just one flight. However, if they'll take one, I think that is a sure bet. Everyone involved seems to agree that part of the point of this is to open up DCA routes to more competition. "They" don't want UA to have SFO-DCA to themself.
Alaska getting PDX seems foregone, although I'd love to know why Alaska went for PDX instead of Seatac. So that's 2 slots.
The other two I think are a real toss up, except for AC. Vancouver, really? I think AC wanted to take a shot at getting a slot, and this was the best they could think up, but Vancouver seems unlikely.
Of the remaining choices, I think Sun Country has a better chance than y'all seem to think. LAS-DCA is a strong choice, and since they want to use these slots to open up DCA to more competition, giving Sun Country a slot does that too. Of course, that is assuming USA chooses PHX instead of LAS.
Besides that, it seems one of the SAN choices will win out, but I haven't a clue which one.
More interesting than the choices will be to see how the DOT defends their choices. The long knives will be out. That should be real theater.
knope2001
Mar 20, 12, 4:46 pm
Alaska getting PDX seems foregone, although I'd love to know why Alaska went for PDX instead of Seatac.
Alaska already has 2x/day DCA-SEA, so it's not too likely they'd get a third pair of slots for the route.
More interesting than the choices will be to see how the DOT defends their choices. The long knives will be out. That should be real theater.
It really is a question...will they primarily aim to add new cities to the DCA long-haul nonstop array, or will they aim to add more competition to existing long-haul markets.
knope2001
Mar 21, 12, 10:57 am
UA is adding DCA-SFO
AA is adding DCA-LAX
DL is adding DCA-SLC
US has not disclosed where they will use their authority
US has chosen to fly DCA-SAN with their slot pair starting 6/4.
That puts a kink into:
DCA-SAN-HNL bid by Alaska
DCA-AUS-SAN bid by Southwest
DCA-COS-SAN bid by Frontier
The DoT could still chose AS to offer competition to US to San Diego, but that does not seem likely IMHO.
DCA-AUS and DCA-COS are still markets in their own right, but both WN and F9 felt strongly enough about the benefit and/or need of thru service that they named San Diego in their proposal. Just because US will fly DCA-SAN nonstop does not mean nobody would fly Southwest or Frontier via AUS or COS, of course. But the demand will be less, and the allure of flying out of DCA instead of IAD will now push people to US. And while picking Southwest or Frontier would throw San Diego a bone if Alaska was denied nonstop DCA-SAN, now there's not that pressure to give San Diego one thing or another. San Diego is getting US nonstop to DCA, and so there's much less pressure to give San Diego something or other with the four slot pairs up for bid.
The bids have been submitted, and I don't know if the DoT will accept any amendments. Southwest could instead pledge thru service to someplace like Albuquerque or El Paso and perhaps garner some favor. For Frontier it's a bit harder because the west coast destinations with reasonable chance to support COS-west nonstop flights, such as SAN, PHX, LAS, LAX, SFO, PDX, SLC,and SEA all have or will (likely) have nostops to DCA. The biggest "west" markets which have no DCA nonstop which Frontier could pledge to serve via COS are routes like DCA-COS-SMF or DCA-COS-ABQ. But it's doubtful there's enough COS-SMF or COS-ABQ traffic to make that workable.
Again, if Frontier is awarded DCA-COS-SAN, having US fly DCA-SAN nonstop does not totally kill Frontier's DCA-SAN flow. But it stunts it, both in the demand Frontier will find in the city pair, and likely in the minds of the DoT as they try to spread the benefits around of these four new slot pair awards.
With this development, my guesses are now:
AS gets PDX
B6 gets SJU
WN gets AUS-SAN
VX gets SFO
Austin probably won't get shut out. It's a bigger market than COS, and two airlines have bid for it (WN and B6).
runnigel
Mar 21, 12, 11:31 am
I think you're probably right Knope. I can see the DOT attempting to provide competition for US by awarding F9 or SW but SW definitely looks like a better option. I was hoping the DCA flight would tie into the PHX and LAX routes but they don't.
Alaska - San Diego
Alaska - Portland
Southwest - Austin
Virgin America -San Francisco
Sun Country, Air Canada, Frontier, Jet Blue..no cigar
knope2001
May 14, 12, 12:50 pm
Frontier did not receive DCA-COS authority.
AS gets PDX
B6 gets SJU
WN gets AUS-SAN
VX gets SFO
Those indeed ended up being the four awardees. I won't say that it was an especially difficult or risky prediction, except that the DoT does not always behave as expected.