KLM Flying Dutchman - Flights to South Africa

I travelled to South Africa in 2010 from Montreal with KLM and my ticket cost about 1400$. I am looking to go back to South Africa in August and for the past few weeks, tickets were going for around 1200-1500$. This week, tickets went up to 2500$. Are there any reasons why and is it likely that the cost will go down soon?

Thanks!

Airline pricing is unpredictable.

Airline pricing is unpredictable.

Thank you. That was very helpful. LOL!

To be slightly more specific, it is a matter of supply and actual or expected demand.

Johan

I travelled to South Africa in 2010 from Montreal with KLM and my ticket cost about 1400$. I am looking to go back to South Africa in August and for the past few weeks, tickets were going for around 1200-1500$. This week, tickets went up to 2500$. Are there any reasons why and is it likely that the cost will go down soon?

Thanks!
While I of course agree with Johan and Ralph, here's a bit more background to explain what they're saying.

There are at least 5 factors which can affect the price you're offered for a journey (eg: YUL to JNB or CPT in your case, I assume):

1) The fare options offered for that route
These are indicated by letters (eg: R = discounted economy, minimum stay requirement applies and no changes or cancellations, ; Y = full fare economy, no minimum stay requirement and changes and cancellations are free).
See https://www.klm.com/travel/ca_en/plan_and_book/ticket_information/ticket_conditions/index.htm for the full list.
However, not all fare options may be offered for all routes at all times (eg: I think Q and T are always/often available as the standard discounted fares, while R, and perhaps N, are only available from time to time, as special offers).

2) The season of that fare class for that route
The price of, say, a Q-class fare will often vary depending on season (there is normally at least 'high' and 'low' season, and sometimes various other seasons in between). However, if you were looking at the same dates the whole time then the seasonality shouldn't suddenly change.

3) The actual price of that fare class, for that season on that route
The actual price of, say, a low-season Q-class fare from YUL to JNB may stay more-or-less static for quite some time - or it may fluctuate wildly. (For some other routes with other airlines, I've seen the cost of a full-fare fare-class increase by over 50%, from week to the next, for no obvious reason... And see here (http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/korean-air-skypass/1318305-significant-increase-kes-j-trips-europe-oceania.html) for another example.)
This is probably the hardest factor to manage, as it's almost impossible to predict when an airline will change the prices of their fare-classes; and once they've done it, there's virtually nothing you can do about it. (While the other factors can be managed somewhat by, for example, changing your travel dates or accepting a more restrictive fare).

4) The actual availability of that fare-class, on the route and date you wish to travel
Airlines carefully manage how many seats they offer in each fare-class on each flight. Again, for example, if you're looking for YUL-AMS-JNB several months in advance, and have a few days flexibility in your travel dates, you should probably be able to find a seat in Q-class for both YUL-AMS and AMS-JNB. However, if you want to travel on specific dates early next week, you may well find that Q-class is not available, and you have to pay for a much more expensive fare (eg: M-class).

5) The cost of taxes and fuel surcharges for the flight(s)
Government taxes can change at short notice (but generally there is a fair amount of warning given) and airlines will also increase their fuel surcharges based on global oil prices. (However, neither of these items should account for a sudden increase of $1,000...)


The airlines will manage the first four of these factors in view of "supply and actual or expected demand". For example, around Christmas time they will be charging high season fares, and probably won't be releasing any special discounted fares. And on any flight at any time, after a certain amount of cheap seats (eg: Q) are sold, they will stop selling those, and only sell higher-priced seats. However, exactly how they manage this is obviously extremely sensitive commercial information, which they won't publicly share.

Without having more information on which fare class you were being offered on which flights previously, it's probably impossible to explain why the price has suddenly changed. I assume you've tried looking at different dates. If the minimum price is the same across all (similar) dates, then it's possible that either a discounted fare has been withdrawn, or the price of lower fare-class(es) has been significantly increased.

If you're travelling regularly and need/want to manage your own flight bookings, it's worth subscribing to a service that gives you more information on availability of fares and seat-classes. (Personally, I use KVSTool (http://www.kvstool.com) - see this thread (http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/travelbuzz/319244-new-kvs-availability-tool-here.html) for more info).

While I of course agree with Johan and Ralph, here's a bit more background to explain what they're saying.

There are at least 5 factors which can affect the price you're offered for a journey (eg: YUL to JNB or CPT in your case, I assume):

1) The fare options offered for that route
These are indicated by letters (eg: R = discounted economy, minimum stay requirement applies and no changes or cancellations, ; Y = full fare economy, no minimum stay requirement and changes and cancellations are free).
See https://www.klm.com/travel/ca_en/plan_and_book/ticket_information/ticket_conditions/index.htm for the full list.
However, not all fare options may be offered for all routes at all times (eg: I think Q and T are always/often available as the standard discounted fares, while R, and perhaps N, are only available from time to time, as special offers).

2) The season of that fare class for that route
The price of, say, a Q-class fare will often vary depending on season (there is normally at least 'high' and 'low' season, and sometimes various other seasons in between). However, if you were looking at the same dates the whole time then the seasonality shouldn't suddenly change.

3) The actual price of that fare class, for that season on that route
The actual price of, say, a low-season Q-class fare from YUL to JNB may stay more-or-less static for quite some time - or it may fluctuate wildly. (For some other routes with other airlines, I've seen the cost of a full-fare fare-class increase by over 50%, from week to the next, for no obvious reason... And see here (http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/korean-air-skypass/1318305-significant-increase-kes-j-trips-europe-oceania.html) for another example.)
This is probably the hardest factor to manage, as it's almost impossible to predict when an airline will change the prices of their fare-classes; and once they've done it, there's virtually nothing you can do about it. (While the other factors can be managed somewhat by, for example, changing your travel dates or accepting a more restrictive fare).

4) The actual availability of that fare-class, on the route and date you wish to travel
Airlines carefully manage how many seats they offer in each fare-class on each flight. Again, for example, if you're looking for YUL-AMS-JNB several months in advance, and have a few days flexibility in your travel dates, you should probably be able to find a seat in Q-class for both YUL-AMS and AMS-JNB. However, if you want to travel on specific dates early next week, you may well find that Q-class is not available, and you have to pay for a much more expensive fare (eg: M-class).

5) The cost of taxes and fuel surcharges for the flight(s)
Government taxes can change at short notice (but generally there is a fair amount of warning given) and airlines will also increase their fuel surcharges based on global oil prices. (However, neither of these items should account for a sudden increase of $1,000...)


The airlines will manage the first four of these factors in view of "supply and actual or expected demand". For example, around Christmas time they will be charging high season fares, and probably won't be releasing any special discounted fares. And on any flight at any time, after a certain amount of cheap seats (eg: Q) are sold, they will stop selling those, and only sell higher-priced seats. However, exactly how they manage this is obviously extremely sensitive commercial information, which they won't publicly share.

Without having more information on which fare class you were being offered on which flights previously, it's probably impossible to explain why the price has suddenly changed. I assume you've tried looking at different dates. If the minimum price is the same across all (similar) dates, then it's possible that either a discounted fare has been withdrawn, or the price of lower fare-class(es) has been significantly increased.

If you're travelling regularly and need/want to manage your own flight bookings, it's worth subscribing to a service that gives you more information on availability of fares and seat-classes. (Personally, I use KVSTool (http://www.kvstool.com) - see this thread (http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/travelbuzz/319244-new-kvs-availability-tool-here.html) for more info).

That was a very thorough reply. Thanks! We do have some flexibility with our dates but we have already started planning our itinerary. I found some flights in the 1600$ range on Kayak.com today so that seems a little bit better. I'm hoping the price goes down a little bit more though. We leave in August, which isn't high season in Johannesburg/Cape Town so I'm hoping prices will go down.